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View Full Version : Ellis Park one-mile chute: Seeking advice/stats


Milkshaker
07-08-2012, 11:42 PM
Been looking at & betting a little Ellis Park over opening weekend.

I'm intrigued by the one-mile chute, and am curious if anyone can shed some light on stats for this configuration.

Post position stats I see on Equibase, DRF, etc...don't make any distinction between the chute and all "route" races.

Thx in advance if you can help!

Valuist
07-08-2012, 11:52 PM
Rail and inner posts always an advantage in one mile races at Ellis.

Maximillion
07-09-2012, 08:42 PM
Been looking at & betting a little Ellis Park over opening weekend.

I'm intrigued by the one-mile chute, and am curious if anyone can shed some light on stats for this configuration.

Post position stats I see on Equibase, DRF, etc...don't make any distinction between the chute and all "route" races.

Thx in advance if you can help!


Im not a big "bias" guy at all, but the main track on Sunday appeared to me at least to be strongly speed favoring

woodfordontherocks
07-20-2012, 12:56 PM
What year did they install the one mile chute at Ellis Park? I'm working on a spreadsheet analyzing races using this chute. Thanks

cj
07-20-2012, 01:43 PM
What year did they install the one mile chute at Ellis Park? I'm working on a spreadsheet analyzing races using this chute. Thanks

It has been there as long as I can remember.

lamboguy
07-20-2012, 01:45 PM
i remember Ellis having it around 1999. i remember when they didn't too, that was probably a few years before that.

woodfordontherocks
07-20-2012, 03:41 PM
Thanks I'm new to the game and was studying which post positions and how much speed horses had any advantage if any in these types of races.

delayjf
07-25-2012, 08:08 AM
When Ellis was built way back when it was designed after Saratoga, which also had a 1 mile chute back in the day.

senortout
07-25-2012, 12:57 PM
When Ellis was built way back when it was designed after Saratoga, which also had a 1 mile chute back in the day.

I think the chute at Ellis makes one mile races 1 and 1/2 turn events, was the Saratoga layout the same?

cj
07-25-2012, 03:29 PM
I think the chute at Ellis makes one mile races 1 and 1/2 turn events, was the Saratoga layout the same?

Yes, it was modeled after Saratoga.

rastajenk
07-25-2012, 04:20 PM
Man, that sounds like a bad case of wishful thinking. :D

jeebus1083
07-25-2012, 09:36 PM
The last time Saratoga had a 1-mile race was 1992, and by that time, there was not a chute, but rather, they started the race on the turn. They had to restrict the number of runners in those races, and it didn't work out well at all.

Milkshaker
07-25-2012, 11:32 PM
Wow, was it '92? I would have guessed a couple years after that. Another hair just turned gray on my head.

I hazily recall that one of the reasons it was discontinued was a severe bias against outer posts and in favor of inner speed (hardly a shock given the layout).

I also seem to remember the problem was exacerbated by there being a wet summer and some races got carded off the grass onto what was perceived as an unfair track layout. Am I correct or is this another symptom of my advancing dementia?

woodfordontherocks
07-27-2012, 01:04 AM
I've been working on a spreadsheet for the races dating back to 2010 until 7-22-12 here's what I come up with.

# of Races 114
PP 1-3 winning at 53%
PP 4-7 winning at 35%
PP 8 > winning at 12%

cj
07-27-2012, 01:52 AM
Post stats don't mean much without knowing the number of starters from each post. For example, the 10 post could have 3 wins in 1,000 races, but you might find out only 10 races were run with 10 or more horses. Also, every horse that starts from the 8 post is facing at least 7 other horses, while a horse starting in the 2 post might only be facing one other horse.

Some_One
07-27-2012, 03:06 AM
My hsh db has only 58 races

1-3 174 starts, 37 wins, 21.3% 2.59 net, IV 1.47
4-7 203 starts, 17 wins, 8.4%, 0.69 net, IV 0.62
8+ 50 starts 4 wins, 8.0%, 2.37 net (probably 1 bomb) IV 0.67

hardspun13
07-27-2012, 05:56 AM
I know with pretty much all of the mile races at Ellis I've seen, you don't want to get hung out on the outside. If they are on the turf course and starting by the dirt finish line go with the speed on the inside because that first turn comes up quick. Also if it is a speed horse on the outside you know for darn sure he is going, and not going to play any of the jockey tooling off games they like to do.

woodfordontherocks
07-27-2012, 05:10 PM
Post stats don't mean much without knowing the number of starters from each post. For example, the 10 post could have 3 wins in 1,000 races, but you might find out only 10 races were run with 10 or more horses. Also, every horse that starts from the 8 post is facing at least 7 other horses, while a horse starting in the 2 post might only be facing one other horse.

I'm going back thru Equibase full charts for these results. So in order for this to be accurate, I need to go back and go through these years and find out how many runners were in these races. Would Brisnet software files have this kind of information? I'm new to handicapping and I've read some books about handicapping, and was just trying to keep some records.

cj
07-27-2012, 05:26 PM
I'm going back thru Equibase full charts for these results. So in order for this to be accurate, I need to go back and go through these years and find out how many runners were in these races. Would Brisnet software files have this kind of information? I'm new to handicapping and I've read some books about handicapping, and was just trying to keep some records.

I was just trying to help you avoid some mistakes that are common to those new to the game. I was no different when I started out.

I'll run a query on posts for 1m races at ElP this weekend and see what I find.

woodfordontherocks
07-27-2012, 05:41 PM
I was just trying to help you avoid some mistakes that are common to those new to the game. I was no different when I started out.

I'll run a query on posts for 1m races at ElP this weekend and see what I find.

Thanks CJ for the help If you don't mind me asking you is there a software program that can help me with this?

cj
07-27-2012, 06:01 PM
Thanks CJ for the help If you don't mind me asking you is there a software program that can help me with this?

I'm sure there is, but you will still need to provide the data. I just use data files and MySQL for things like this.

Valuist
07-29-2012, 06:52 PM
i remember Ellis having it around 1999. i remember when they didn't too, that was probably a few years before that.

They had it before that. When full card simulcasting came on board in 1995, they had the one mile chute.

Ellis is a rare track that does get very strong rail biases.