Putting an exotic wager together II

[Capper Al]

My horses A-B-C-D are my selections in that order. All are both in the money and win contenders. Lord behold again, my B and C horses are going off at 12 to 1. The other two (A-D) are the favorites, but greater than even money. How would you play it?

Choices:


Exacta box A-B-C-D for one unit -- cost 12 units.
Exacta box B+C 6 units each way -- cost 12 units
Exacta key (B-c)+(A-B-C-D) and (A-B-C-D)+(B-C) for one unit -- cost 12 units
Place bet B-C for 3 units and exacta key (B-C)+(A-B-C-D) for 1 units -- cost 12 units
Place bet B-C for 3 units and exacta key (A-B-C-D)+(B-C) for 1 units -- cost 12 units
Win B-C for 3 units and exacta key (B-C)+(A-B-C-D) for 1 units -- cost 12 units
Win B-C for 3 units and exacta key (A-B-C-D)+(B-C) for 1 units -- cost 12 units
Win B-C for 3 units and Place B-C for 3 units -- cost 12 units
Win B-C for 6 units each -- cost 12 units
Place B-C for 6 units each -- cost 12 units
Skip the race because B or C are not my top pick
Other

[BlueChip@DRF]

Other.

10-cent super: BC / ABCDE / ABCDE / ABCDE

[therussmeister]

It is so rare that I find a race with four legitimate contenders to win that I would probably end up passing the race, having fallen into a confused slumber. :confused:

[Capper Al]

It is so rare that I find a race with four legitimate contenders to win that I would probably end up passing the race, having fallen into a confused slumber. :confused:

I can understand your point. I seem to have no problem finding two to four contenders a race most of the time. There are a few that go beyond 6 contenders, and I have had it with only one contender(very rare). Yet, because of the uncertainty in the game, I would suggest going with the odds.

[Capper Al]

This situation differs from the first scenario in that it has two horses getting the odds. With only one horse getting the odds, we didn't need to extend ourself. Now with two, the bottom place dutch won't work--> Win B+C and Place B+C. We are forced out to play the exotic, but the good news is that we have two shots at a long shot hitting the board. I would play the bottom part of the wheel as an exacta (A-B-C-D)/(B-C). The top can still be a win dutch on B+C and/or a double. I also try to balance the top and bottom of my wager, so if I chose the double and win on top-- I will double my exacta.

[therussmeister]

I can understand your point. I seem to have no problem finding two to four contenders a race most of the time. There are a few that go beyond 6 contenders, and I have had it with only one contender(very rare). Yet, because of the uncertainty in the game, I would suggest going with the odds.
The problem is I am unprepared for this scenario because it rarely happens for me. I do not get down to the nitty-gritty of making selections and formulating exotic wagers until about 5 minutes to post (I can never be accused of over-thinking a race), and due to the rarity of the situation I usually don't have enough time to put together quality tickets.

[Kevroc]

Again, the value is the win pool odds of 12:1.

I can make a case for betting both to win and making a AD/BC exacta play in case one of them runs second to one of your other contenders.

[Capper Al]

Again, the value is the win pool odds of 12:1.

I can make a case for betting both to win and making a AD/BC exacta play in case one of them runs second to one of your other contenders.

I answered this in the other thread. The keying strategy is consistent, playing wagering the top two spots. The place option is lost with multiple horses.

[sammy the sage]

As explained in OTHER thread...PASS...unless I like C,D BEST...then throw out place options...would/have used ALL of the different win scenerios...including keying the two in p/3/4's...

[maddog42]

Almost this exact scenario confronted me Saturday at Monmouth 1st race. My C and D choices were 12 to 1 and 25 to 1. The a horse figured to bounce so I loaded up in tri's around the C,D. The odds on both horses went up farther, the
D went to over 30 to 1. Naturally the D won and paid over $70. The B ran second. I had neither the exacta or the win bet. I hate to be right about a race and not cash a dime, but this is what happened. Normally I would have cashed this exacta, but I was unprepared and didn't bet it. The C ran out of the money
and a noncontender finished 3rd.

[Capper Al]

Almost this exact scenario confronted me Saturday at Monmouth 1st race. My C and D choices were 12 to 1 and 25 to 1. The a horse figured to bounce so I loaded up in tri's around the C,D. The odds on both horses went up farther, the
D went to over 30 to 1. Naturally the D won and paid over $70. The B ran second. I had neither the exacta or the win bet. I hate to be right about a race and not cash a dime, but this is what happened. Normally I would have cashed this exacta, but I was unprepared and didn't bet it. The C ran out of the money
and a noncontender finished 3rd.

You over extended yourself. What you knew was that you had value on the C and D. When you bet combinations not focused on your value horse(s) is when one is over extended.

[lamboguy]

my thoughts on exotic wagers are if i have been able to isolate 2 different win factors in a race, i take the 2 of them and box them in exacta's. what i have found is that in those type of races where i have found 2 win factors, half the time neither one of the 2 win the race, and 20% or the time i hit the box.

i find that i am not good enough at this game to take larger spreads. i really don't like the idea of boxing either, but it has worked for me in the past.

i had to give up using an odds model because the odds change drastically after the races start these days. sometimes the change benefits me, and i find that it evens out in the long run. i play lots of races though and don't have the time to look at every one of them. when it first started conditional wagering was the greatest thing ever invented. now i find its nothing but a waste of time.