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Teach
07-07-2012, 11:42 AM
Belmont Park: Sat., July 7:

Race One:


:4: Captain Canuck

Highly-priced, Canadian-bred, lightly-raced gelding has not lived up to expectations. Last seen finishing next-to-last on the turf at Pimlico a couple months ago. Morning works are nothing to write home about, BUT…he has faced much better in the past. Did have maiden-breaking route effort at Woodbine. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides for Bruce Levine.


:5: Indigene Charm

Returns to route. Turf-to-dirt angle. Trouble, trouble, trouble…: Hit gate in last; swerved and lost rider (Rosie) prior to that. Has faced better in claiming ranks. Last time in this cheap: he won! Eddie Castro - Linda Rice. Needs to “get off the Schneid”: one for 12, lifetime, but in the money six times. A win and a third in three tries at one mile distance.



:6: Toninthirteen

Part-owned by John A. Nerud (remember Gallant Man and Iron Liege in the ‘57 Kentucky Derby). Has faced better in the past, albeit not very successfully. This Storm Cat-bred gelding’s only win came at a mile and seventy at “The Big A” in late January. Was fourth in the slop in a recent sprint. May surprise. Mike Luzzi rides for trainer Mike Hushion.



#8 Rutherford B

(I want to say “Hayes”). Remember: Speed that’s loose on the lead is dangerous. Don’t see much speed in race besides Rutherford B. If the improving Wilmer Garcia can rate this horse and control the pace…. One win and a third in four tries at the distance (one was in the slop). Red-hot John Kimmel-trains. Third in his last in this company.



 

Race Two:



 
:5: Mike And Rob.

Eddie Castro rides this Seeking The Gold-bred three-year-old gelding; the horse has been knocking on the door. He’s hit the board in his last three, two of those were turf-route races. He’s three for five, lifetime, on the lawn. Four out of seven, lifetime, on all surfaces. George Weaver trains.


:1: Sneaky Kitten.

This El Prado-bred, three-year-old colt looks like “the logical”. He finished second as the favorite in this company in early June. The Mike Maker-trainee recently turned in a sharp five-furlong work at the Belmont training track; he breezed five panels in 1:01. The hot-as-a-petardo (appropriate for the Fourth of July), Javier Castellano, is in the irons.


:6: Post Pattern.

Appears to have the endurance for this maiden-special turf route. Gets back one of the best, Ramon Dominguez. Finished third and second in last two turf routes. Third start back off a layoff angle. In tight quarters in last; a clean trip would all that seems necessary. Dominguez is a master at putting horses in position and finding seams. Dom Schettino trains.


#3 Imaspeedyguy.

This Artie Schiller-bred gelding is “a plodder”. My long-shot try. The gelding has a second and a third in eight turf tries. Yet, he impresses as the type of horse who can capture a minor award. He was second at a mile and a sixteenth at Aqueduct in late March and third at a mile and an eighth at “The Spa” last summer. Patrick Kelly trains.



 
Race Three:


:1: Goombada Guska

This well-named (hey, I don’t have a mistress, a Rolex, or a Ferrari, and I’m not a “made-man,“ but I was born in Syracuse…Syracuse, New York, that is) Yonaguska-bred gelding has been facing pretty tough company in recent tries, e.g., the Skipaway at Monmouth, the Westchester, etc. He should stalk. Mike Luzzi rides for Steve Asmussen.


:3: Self Control

looks like the obvious. He was third in the slop in his last but finished down on the tough-going inside. This Lemon Drop Kid-bred colt has hit the tote in six of nine tries. He has two seconds in three tries at this distance. The colt hasn’t been out since May, but his morning work-tab has been very good. Ramon Dominguez rides for trainer Chad Brown.



 

Race Four:



:14: Back Room Deal

draws in from the also eligibles and as the poet Robert Frost once said: “And that made all the difference.” This Unbridled’s Song-bred gelding has faced better. He shortens up off his recent route effort. The horse has finished second in both his two seven and one-half furlong tries. Ramon Dominguez is in the irons for trainer Ralph Nicks.



:1: On The Throne

has hit the tote in all three of his turf tries. This Storm Cat-bred three-year-old gelding is four for six lifetime on all surfaces. In his last at Monmouth, a week ago, he finished third in similar company in a five and one-half furlong sprint. Jose Lezcano is in the irons for trainer David Nunn.



 
:2: Full Control

took the early lead in his last and only race only to relinquish it in the stretch after setting some solid early fractions. This Mr. Prospector-bred colt can only benefit from his initial effort. Jockey Julien Laparoux will either have to grab the lead, or he’ll be forced to angle his horse out in the stretch. Andrew Lakeman trains.



#6 Zajal

did not fire as a first-time starter. This Southern Halo-bred gelding may have been overmatched in 50K claiming company. This three-year-old gelding may have needed that one under his belt; he can certainly makes amends. Jockey Edgar Prado reprises his role as the gelding’s chauffer; the red-hot Rudy Rodriguez is the trainer.



 

Race Five:


:12: Foolish Tiger

had a troubled trip in his last at Belmont about a month ago. In that one, he was bumped and steadied yet still came on to get the show money. A trouble-free excursion around the Belmont Inner Turf Course would all that would seem necessary to put this Storm Cat-bred gelding into contention. Eddie Castro rides for trainer Tom Bush.


:13: Springcourt

was fourth in this company last time at Belmont. Prior to that, this Forty Niner-bred gelding finished second in a mile and one-eighth turf race in which he went off as the second choice. The horse has hit the tote four times in nine lifetime tries. David Cohen rides for trainer David Jacobson.


:10: Tycoon Cat

finished second in his last race on the turf at Belmont Park. The Danzig-bred gelding was closing fast in that one but simply ran out of real estate. The horse has two seconds in four lifetime turf tries. He’s been in the money six times in seventeen lifetime starts. Wilmer Garcia rides for trainer Enrique Arroyo.


#2 Time To Engage

ships in from Presque Isle where he finished second in a mile race on the dirt in mid June. Although the horse has never run on the grass, this four-year-old gelding does have some turf pedigree in the form of Rahy. This Mr. Greeley-bred gelding may surprise in his first asking on the lawn. Jose Lezcano is in the irons for trainer Dan Conway.



 

Race Six:



:10: Color Blind

won her last in slightly weaker allowance company a couple months ago; yet the three-year-old filly’s morning work tab has been both steady and solid. She had a five-furlong “bullet” work in which she drilled five panels in 1:01.1, breezing. The Holy Bull-bred filly has two wins and a second, in six tries. Alan Garcia rides for trainer Tony Ferraro.


:4: Queen of King St

is a lightly-raced Seattle Slew-bred mare who’s hit the tote in four of six lifetime starts. She’s won half those tries. On the turf, the mare is two for two. She won her last two; they came in turf route tries that she ran last winter at Gulfstream Park. She’s been off nearly four months, but her in morning works are very good. Edgar Prado rides for Ralph Nicks.


:1: Island School

came on very strongly in her last to finish second. Had the race been another sixteenth she might well have won. Jose Lezcano will need to deftly angle this horse off the rail to put her in contention. The Seattle Slew-bred filly has had one second in three lifetime turf tries. The filly had a recent sharp work. “Shug” McGaughey trains.


#2 Fire Assay

is another horse that’s coming out of that late-May turf race. The Medaglia D’oro-bred filly finished a fast-closing fourth in that one. She recently had a sharp five panel work on the Belmont training track. The filly breezed five furlongs in 1:00.3. She’s eligible to improve as this is her third start of a layoff. Junior Alvarado rides for trainer Jim Toner.



 

Race Seven:


:9: Western Tryst, unlike his name, hehasn’t been engaging in a West-coast rendezvous; to the contrary, he’s been racing at Belmont Park where he’s hit the tote in three of four turf tries. This Gone West-bred gelding was second in his last in New York state-bred stakes company. He’s now entered against softer in allowance company. Jose Lezcano rides for trainer Phil Serpe.


:2: Adirondack Dancer

was fourth in his last in this caliber of company. Prior to that, this Northern Dancer-bred colt was second, first and again second. He has a first and a second in three lifetime turf tries. The colt had a solid, recent morning work in which he breezed four furlongs in :48.4. Eddie Castro rides for trainer Linda Rice.


:11: Carbon County

finished third in a mile race on the turf in his last. Prior to that, the A.P. Indy-bred gelding had two seconds in two tries at Tampa Bay Downs. The gelding is five for seven on the turf, lifetime. He’s eligible to improve as it’s his second start back off a layoff. Ramon Dominguez rides for Mike Hushion.


#8 Wild Exploit

is another horse making his second start back off a layoff. The Wild Rush-bred colt finished third in New York-bred stakes company in his last. Prior to that, he was first in a maiden-breaking effort. The colt has been in the money in both turf tries. Javier Castellano is in the irons for trainer Mark Hennig.



Race Eight:


:3: Jamaican Smoke

is my upset try in the Victory Ride. This Mr. Greeley-bred filly has won two straight at Churchill Downs and Keeneland, respectively. The filly will try to make it three in a row. She had a recent four furlong work in which the she “drilled” the half-mile in :47.3, breezing. Javier Castellano rides for the red-hot Eddie Kenneally.


:1: Agave Kiss

is the obvious. It’s very hard to bet against a horse who has won all six of her lifetime races. Can she make it seven straight? She has been off since mid May when she won a 100K stakes race at Pimlico. This Tale of The Cat-bred’s morning work-tab indicates she’s more than ready. The skilled Ramon Dominguez rides for trainer Rudy Rodriguez.


:5: Gypsy Robin

ships in from Presque Isle Downs in Erie, PA, as does her jockey Julio Garcia. The Awesome Again-bred filly has not raced in nearly two months, but her morning works indicate she should be ready for today’s Victory Ride Stakes. The well-traveled filly has won three-straight stakes races including the Grade 2 Beaumont at Keeneland. Wesley Ward trains.



 

Race Nine:


:7: To Honour And Serve

is my pick in the Grade 2 Suburban. The four-year-old A.P. Indy-bred colt was a disappointing third behind Shackleford. Although, in all fairness, the colt was in tight quarters. Prior to that the horse won two straight: the Westchester and the Cigar. He stretches out to a mile and one-eighth, that should help. Jose Lezcano rides for trainer Bill Mott.


:6: Mucho Macho Man

is mucho macho. The Holy Bull-bred colt was third in the Alysheba at Churchill Downs over two months ago. Prior to that the colt reeled off three straight wins. Her morning work-tab looks like a shooting gallery for marksmen, three-straight “bullets”. Mike Smith rides for Kathy Ritvo.



:4: Hymn Book

was last seen participating in the Pimlico Special in mid May. This lightly-raced Arch-bred gelding finished fifth in that one but was bumped and squeezed and ended up finishing wide, albeit less than two lengths off the winner. The gelding has two wins and one second in four tries at the distance. Alan Garcia rides for “Shug” McGaughey.


#1 and #1A Stay Thirsty and Caixa Electronica

both have a shot at completing exotics. Stay Thirsty was second in the Vanlandingham at Belmont two months ago. Caixa Electronica won a Grade 2 sprint handicap at Belmont about a month ago. Javier Castellano rides Stay Thirsty, while Eddie Castro rides Caixa Electronica; both horses are part of the Todd Pletcher entry.



Race Ten:


:9: Count Catamount

was third in a six-furlong turf sprint about a month ago. This Danzig-bred gelding was leading in the stretch but faded to the show position. The Rudy Rodriguez-trained horse has a chance to make amends. He’s 11 for 18 lifetime on the turf. At the distance, he has two wins and a third. Jose Ortiz is in the irons.



:12: Toque

won his last in optional claiming company at Finger Lakes. He now moves downstate to try his abilities on the Belmont lawn. In fact, this is the first turf start for this Cozzene-bred grey gelding. The horse has hit the board in 19 of 25 lifetime starts. Jose Lezcano rides for trainer Charlton Baker.



:8: Coronation Day

finished up the track in his last, a seven furlong race that was taken off the turf and run on the main track. Prior to that he ran third twice in two sprint turf races. This horse has hit the board in eight of 20 times turf races. He’s had three third-place finishes in six lifetime starts at the six-furlong distance. Eddie Castro rides for trainer George Weaver.


#1 Fisherman’s Wharf

has hit the tote in all three of his recent turf sprints. This seven-year-old Deputy Minister-bred gelding has hit the board in 19 of 34 lifetime turf tries. The gelding has two wins, a second, and three thirds in eight tries at the six-furlong distance. Ramon Dominguez is in the irons for trainer Nick Canani.

Chris Longshot
07-07-2012, 12:16 PM
I like these today Walt and should offer some value.

Race 1: 1 Gramercy
Race 3: 2 Private Tale
Race 4: 12 The Mixer
Race 5: 11 Love Man/9 Powerful Instinct
Race 7: 7 Gossip Column
Race 10: 8 Coronation Day/11 Tiger Willie

Good Luck Today and thanks for the oustanding analysis.

Chris