Breeder's Cup Value(less) Picks

[Que]

Below are my picks for the Breeder's Cup... but let it be known, that I can't remember the last time I've had a winning day at the Breeder's Cup. However, everyone should be allowed at least one day a year when you can play every race just for fun--no matter how damaging it may be to your pocketbook ;).


1st Race

5/2 - Country Be Gold = 1025 -- My Pick
8/5 - Graeme Hall = 903
4/1 - Burning Marque = 879

2nd Race

8/1 - Sassy Hound = 1083 -- My Pick
5/2 - Yonguska = 966
9/2 - Snow Ridge = 915

3rd Race -- DISTAFF

3/1 - Exogenous = 1055
8/1 - Spain = 1053 -- My Pick
5/2 - Flute = 1048

4th Race -- JUVENILE FILLIES

8/5 - You = 1080
20/1 - Shesastonecoldfox = 960 -- My Pick
4/1 - Bella Bellucci = 911

5th Race -- MILE

15/1 - Balto Star = 1065 -- My Pick
15/1 - Brahms = 1030
20/1 - Express Tour = 970

6th Race -- SPRINT

12/1 - Xtra Heat = 1069 -- My Pick
8/1 - Delaware Township = 1017
6/1 - Caller One = 1010

7th Race -- FILLY & MARE TURF

7/2 - England's Legend = 997
30/1 - Solvig = 921 -- My Pick
5/1 - Starine = 884

8th Race -- JUVENILE

4/5 - Officer = 1070
5/1 - Came Home = 1043 -- My Pick
20/1 - Jump Start = 1030

9th Race -- TURF

6/1 - Hap = 1046 -- My Pick
20/1 - Quiet Resolve = 1024
5/1 - Timbora = 1023

10th Race -- CLASSIC

2/1 - Aptitude = 1083 -- My Pick
30/1 - Orientate = 1073
15/1 - Guided Tour = 1008


Note. The numbers are my composite pace ratings for my top three horses.

Good luck... Que.

[GR1@HTR]

Thanks for posting Que. Just a quick question. Does your PC automatically determine pacelines or do you do it manually?

[Que]

GR1,

My current method doesn't select pace lines. To compute the pace ratings, 50% of the horse's rating comes from it's last race or the average of its last three races--whichever is higher, and the remaining 50% of it's rating comes from the horse's highest rating in its last three races. Although the more I think about selecting pace lines, the more I don't think I'll use them--at least not initially. Instead I hope to create a separate relevancy rating, i.e. Horse A may have a 1000 pace rating and only a 800 relevancy rating, while Horse B may have a 800 pace rating and a 1000 relevancy rating. In my opinion, Horse A still has a pace advantage over Horse B, even though it's relevancy was only 800. Therefore, I might not bet Horse A, because of the low relevancy score, but on the other hand, I wouldn't necessarily bet against Horse A either. If you are judicious about selecting pacelines, you may give Horse A a lower pace rating that's more relevant to today's race; but I think that might hide Horse A's more innate ability. It's still a theory at this time--but, it's the approach I plan to try, i.e. betting horse's with high comparative pace ratings and high relevancy scores, before I go about selecting pacelines--which is something I've never liked to do anyway.

Que.

[Vinnie]

Here are my Pics for the Big BC tomorrow (Oct. 27th!) Good luck to everyone that is playing. "Enjoy a day where the finest horses in the world are running"!

Race 1-

Burning Marque 4/1
Graeme Hall 2/1
Country Be Gold 3/1

Race 2-

Yonaguska 3/1
Late Carson 4/1
Sassy Hound 8/1

Race 3-

Miss Linda 12/1 (My favorite in this field for a chance at a decent score)
Starrer 15//1
Unbridled Elaine 20/1

Race 4-

You 8/5
Take Charge Lady 12/1
Imperial Gesture 15/1 (on the periphery, I don't think that you can toss out Habibti to factor in somewhere up top to get in the money.

Race 5-

Express Tour 20/1 (Could hit for a nice payoff).
Val Royal 6/1
Navesink 20/1

Race 6-

Delaware Township 8/1 (Again, could be a nice payoff here if the odds dictate)
Caller One 6/1
Squirtle Squirt 10/1

Race 7-

England's Legend 2/1
Lailani 3/1
Starine 5/1

Race 8-

Officer (at Even Odds)
Siphonic 6/1
Jump Start 20/1

Race 9-

Hap 6/1
Slew Valley 20/1
Timboroa 5/1

Race 10-

Aptitude 2/1
Guided Tour 15/1
Tiznow 5/1

Good Luck to all!

Have Fun!!

[ranchwest]

Que, sometimes you don't have to hit a lot of them to do well. I remember hitting Very Subtle over Groovy. At EVD I got 20-1 (not a comingled pool back then). On a $3 bet I got to play little bets all day off of that first race. Then, I went to DED and hit a tri. Nice day to remember. :)