Winning Favorite Percentages?

[so.cal.fan]

Does anyone know the percentage of winning favorites for 2003 at the major So. Cal. tracks?

[BillW]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Does anyone know the percentage of winning favorites for 2003 at the major So. Cal. tracks?

Sure do ...

SA:

# Fav. W-W. Ave. Ave. Win % by Odds Range
Type Races Wins Wins Odds Purse <2:1 2-5 5-10 10-20 >20:1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All 853 37% 23% 5.08 $ 59103 30% 40% 19% 8% 4%
Fast Track 816 38% 23% 5.12 $ 60032 30% 40% 19% 7% 4%
Off Track 37 27% 22% 4.25 $ 38622 27% 41% 22% 11% 0%
Dirt-Fast 578 39% 25% 4.76 $ 51313 33% 39% 18% 7% 3%
Dirt-Off 36 28% 22% 4.17 $ 32750 28% 42% 19% 11% 0%
Turf-Fast 238 35% 19% 5.99 $ 81206 24% 41% 22% 8% 5%
Turf-Off 1 0% 0% 7.10 $250000 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Routes 365 39% 18% 4.93 $ 88307 32% 39% 19% 7% 3%
Sprints 488 36% 27% 5.20 $ 37260 29% 41% 19% 8% 4%
Males 490 37% 23% 5.07 $ 63008 28% 41% 20% 9% 3%
Females 363 37% 24% 5.10 $ 53832 33% 39% 18% 6% 4%
2 YO 87 31% 25% 5.04 $ 36908 26% 46% 13% 11% 3%
3 YO 225 38% 25% 4.90 $ 44436 32% 38% 19% 8% 3%
3 YO & up 184 41% 24% 5.49 $104272 28% 41% 20% 7% 5%
4 YO & up 357 36% 21% 5.00 $ 50476 31% 39% 21% 6% 3%
Gr. Stk 41 34% 17% 6.22 $452439 32% 37% 15% 15% 5%
non-Gr Stk 36 39% 14% 5.01 $130833 28% 42% 19% 6% 6%
Alw 72 35% 22% 6.33 $ 53542 26% 39% 19% 11% 4%
Opt. Clm 52 29% 8% 4.84 $ 54423 25% 42% 21% 10% 2%
St Alw 37 38% 19% 6.35 $ 28189 30% 41% 16% 3% 11%
Claiming 299 38% 25% 4.82 $ 32819 32% 37% 21% 7% 3%
MSW 118 42% 24% 4.49 $ 45975 29% 45% 19% 6% 3%
MdnClm 198 37% 28% 4.99 $ 21157 31% 40% 17% 8% 4%


DMR:


# Fav. W-W. Ave. Ave. Win % by Odds Range
Type Races Wins Wins Odds Purse <2:1 2-5 5-10 10-20 >20:1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All 320 33% 26% 5.22 $ 47272 24% 40% 22% 10% 3%
Fast Track 320 33% 26% 5.22 $ 47272 24% 40% 22% 10% 3%
Dirt-Fast 244 34% 27% 5.15 $ 38779 26% 40% 21% 10% 3%
Turf-Fast 76 32% 24% 5.43 $ 74539 20% 41% 26% 9% 4%
Routes 142 30% 25% 5.46 $ 58810 20% 38% 29% 11% 2%
Sprints 178 36% 27% 5.03 $ 38067 28% 42% 17% 9% 4%
Males 177 33% 29% 5.56 $ 49203 23% 41% 23% 9% 4%
Females 143 34% 22% 4.80 $ 44881 27% 39% 22% 10% 2%
2 YO 62 42% 31% 4.49 $ 41113 32% 42% 18% 2% 6%
3 YO 49 31% 20% 5.71 $ 58612 22% 24% 35% 16% 2%
3 YO & up 209 31% 26% 5.32 $ 46440 22% 44% 21% 11% 2%
Gr. Stk 11 9% 36% 4.42 $222727 0% 64% 36% 0% 0%
non-Gr Stk 18 22% 6% 6.29 $ 84444 17% 39% 28% 11% 6%
Alw 16 31% 31% 6.64 $ 58000 19% 25% 25% 25% 6%
Opt. Clm 43 35% 28% 5.58 $ 60558 30% 42% 12% 12% 5%
St Alw 12 58% 25% 2.43 $ 28833 25% 67% 8% 0% 0%
Claiming 90 32% 29% 5.55 $ 30978 21% 34% 27% 17% 1%
MSW 55 44% 25% 4.02 $ 50018 38% 44% 9% 4% 5%
MdnClm 75 28% 25% 5.50 $ 23200 21% 40% 32% 4% 3%


HOL:


# Fav. W-W. Ave. Ave. Win % by Odds Range
Type Races Wins Wins Odds Purse <2:1 2-5 5-10 10-20 >20:1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All 702 37% 27% 4.96 $ 43567 33% 40% 17% 8% 3%
Fast Track 695 37% 27% 4.95 $ 43642 33% 40% 16% 8% 3%
Off Track 7 14% 14% 5.53 $ 36143 14% 14% 71% 0% 0%
Dirt-Fast 489 38% 30% 4.76 $ 34327 35% 38% 17% 7% 2%
Dirt-Off 7 14% 14% 5.53 $ 36143 14% 14% 71% 0% 0%
Turf-Fast 206 36% 18% 5.40 $ 65752 27% 45% 16% 10% 3%
Routes 282 37% 20% 5.01 $ 62035 33% 39% 17% 9% 3%
Sprints 420 37% 31% 4.92 $ 31167 33% 40% 17% 8% 3%
Males 395 36% 27% 5.61 $ 45342 30% 41% 17% 10% 4%
Females 307 39% 27% 4.11 $ 41283 36% 39% 17% 6% 1%
2 YO 121 40% 40% 4.89 $ 34620 38% 38% 14% 7% 2%
3 YO 95 35% 25% 4.96 $ 58295 31% 44% 11% 13% 2%
3 YO & up 351 39% 23% 5.00 $ 45741 32% 38% 19% 7% 3%
4 YO & up 135 30% 26% 4.89 $ 35570 30% 44% 18% 8% 2%
Gr. Stk 32 41% 9% 4.58 $231250 34% 28% 25% 12% 0%
non-Gr Stk 20 45% 0% 2.83 $149500 35% 60% 0% 5% 0%
Alw 52 31% 27% 5.12 $ 49481 33% 38% 19% 8% 4%
Opt. Clm 63 32% 27% 5.09 $ 48651 25% 41% 21% 11% 2%
St Alw 27 48% 33% 3.60 $ 24667 48% 30% 15% 7% 0%
Claiming 229 34% 26% 5.01 $ 26511 31% 45% 14% 9% 3%
MSW 108 43% 24% 5.25 $ 43000 34% 40% 17% 6% 3%
MdnClm 171 38% 34% 5.12 $ 18567 34% 36% 20% 6% 4%


This is a protptype tool but I believe it is accurate. A few days data may be missing due to errors in data files etc.

Bill

[Dave Schwartz]

rPubCh
------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV
--------------------------------------------------------
SA 1,123 404 36.0 $1.85 2.73 1.09
HOL 891 308 34.6 $1.67 2.47 1.00
DMR 412 132 32.0 $1.64 2.48 0.99
FPX 179 74 41.3 $1.97 3.24 1.19


Note that the slightly different results than Bill's are due to the fact that we do not feel compelled to separate co-favorites in a race. Thus, 2.5:1 and 2.6:1 are both considered favorites.

[BillW]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz

rPubCh
------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV
--------------------------------------------------------
SA 1,123 404 36.0 $1.85 2.73 1.09
HOL 891 308 34.6 $1.67 2.47 1.00
DMR 412 132 32.0 $1.64 2.48 0.99
FPX 179 74 41.3 $1.97 3.24 1.19


Note that the slightly different results than Bill's are due to the fact that we do not feel compelled to separate co-favorites in a race. Thus, 2.5:1 and 2.6:1 are both considered favorites.

My data is pretty much raw (unrefined :)) i.e. it will differentiate to 1/100 of a point. A horse going off at 1.76 - 1 would be considered favorite over a horse going off at 1.77 - 1.

I am curious about the difference in number of races though, maybe a proto-2 is in the offing.

Bill

[Larry Hamilton]

yeah, but do you know what time it is? hehehe

[BillW]

Originally posted by Larry Hamilton
yeah, but do you know what time it is? hehehe


12:57 ..... in Baltimore :)

[so.cal.fan]

Thanks,
I was curious, because I couldn't find it published anywhere in the DRF, perhaps I missed it.
It seems that the current SA meet has had a larger % of favorites than usual.

[Dave Schwartz]

Bill,

That is not the number of races. That is the number of HORSES that were favorites and co-favorites. Since there are often more than one per race, it will show more starts.

Dave

[Larry Hamilton]

kudos to both--excellent work

[BillW]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
Bill,


That is not the number of races. That is the number of HORSES that were favorites and co-favorites. Since there are often more than one per race, it will show more starts.

Dave

Dave,

I understand, it just looked like a lot of ties. What is your epsilon? +/- 0.1?

Bill

[so.cal.fan]

Just when I perceive all the favorites are winning at SA, they have a day of good payoffs!
Today's Racing Digest does a large computer study of favorites for the So. Cal. tracks, but I believe it is for about 5 years.
I was thinking the favorites were winning more often due to all these short fields, but according to the facts you guys just provided, that is not the case.

http://www.todaysracingdigest.com/freearea/favorites.htm

[Dave Schwartz]

Bill,

Epsilon? Is that where Omar gets his hair done? <G>

Seriously, our system is based upon what you see on the toteboard.

In other words, if you see two horses at 6/5 they are tied, even though one might be 1.2:1 and the other 1.3:1.


Dave

[Secretariat]

Looking at Bill's figures, I was just curious if anyone has a hypothesis why Sprint favorites at SCal outperformed the Route favorites so dramatically?

[BillW]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
Bill,

Epsilon? Is that where Omar gets his hair done? <G>

Seriously, our system is based upon what you see on the toteboard.

In other words, if you see two horses at 6/5 they are tied, even though one might be 1.2:1 and the other 1.3:1.


Dave

Gotcha, that may explain the difference.

thanks,

Bill

[Dave Schwartz]

Sec,

Two possibilities that I can think of easily:

1. Sprint races are less contentious
2. Smaller fields


Dave

[so.cal.fan]

I have another theory.
Since most handicappers use speed and pace, this is not as reliable in routes.
Horses have to be sounder to run long, imo. I've seen more unsound horses run well short than long. That said, I have no data to back it up, just another perception on my part.