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View Full Version : Belmont Selections: Wed., July 4, 2012


Teach
07-04-2012, 11:52 AM
I don’t often handicap on weekdays…but, when I do…I prefer Holidays (like Independence Day). Keep “punting” (now the euro) my friends, and have a safe and happy Fourth of July.



 



 



Belmont Park: July 4, 2012



Race One:


In the opener, a turf-route claimer, I’m leaning toward :5: Bay Head Beauty. This Johannesburg-bred filly has been away from the races for over three months; yet her morning works have been most impressive. She also benefits from the chauffeuring services of Ramon Dominguez and the training skills of Rick Dutrow. In her last, in March, this four-year-old came three-wide into the stretch but had nothing left in the tank for the final drive; she finished seventh as the 8/5 fave. Yet, prior to that she won two straight on the turf, one at seven and one-half furlongs; the other at one-mile and one-sixteenth. The filly should be in a good stalking position and should be able to mount a closing kick as they reach the top of the stretch. She will benefit even more if In Her Hey Day leaves and challenges To The Point on the front end. Yet, there are others to consider. #3 Another Please isdropping down in the selling ranks. That drop in company should help this fast-closing filly to be very much a factor with these. Yes, she did finish seventh in her last. I watched the replay. She lagged behind in a race that was marked by solid, up-front fractions (the third panel, however, slowed to a crawl). Anyway, the horse mounted a late charge on the grandstand side but simply ran out of real estate. Prior to that she won two in a row, one at a mile; the other at a mile and one-eighth. Corey Nakatani rides for the red-hot John Kimmel. Another horse to consider is #1 Bedarra. The seven-year-old Gone West-bred mare has finished second in her two most recent turf-route tries. Although she’s been off for a month and a half, her morning works are acceptable. She should be in a decent stalking position. The most capable Jose Lezcano rides for trainer Jason Servis. Finally, #7 Tonigail came on strong in her last but was out-finished at the wire. The Forest Wildcat-bred mare seems to be one of those horses that can usually be counted on to hit the board (17 out of 23, lifetime; two for three on the turf) but just doesn’t seem to get here picture taken that often, at least not recently. I would consider her for part of your gimmicks.



Race Two:


This is a most difficult race to analyze. The horses entered here in this 14K maiden claiming event at a distance of one mile have a combined record of five in-the-money finishes in 49 starts. I’m going with :1: Blazing Arches. I’m picking her here almost by default. She has two second-place finishes in ten lifetime tries. Both those tote-hitting tries came in route races. She just missed at Belmont two months ago in a 25K claimer. Edgar Prado rides for trainer John Toscano. Any wetness - there were early-morning showers - will move this horse up. The other horse I see as a contender is #4 Candleabra. In seven tries, this Pulpit-bred filly has hit the tote three times, one second and two thirds. “The Panamanian Phenom,” Eddie Castro, rides for trainer George Weaver. What catches my attention is the fact that the filly has three in-the-money finishes in four tries at the one-mile distance. The three-year old has recently been perambulating on the turf; she now returns to a dirt surface. She nearly broke her maiden at this one-mile distance this past March at Aqueduct. Any kind of trip and she should be right there. Then, there’s #6 Pique Out with Jose Ortiz in the irons for trainer Bruce Brown. The Holy Bull-bred filly did finish fourth in her only start nearly 50 days ago. She was fractious in the gate in that one and may show gate improvement with a race under her belt. She does have some decent, steady morning works in preparation for her return to the races. Finally, #9 Clasic Point hasa chance. She has faced better; she’s adding blinkers. She has the services of jockey Cornelio Velasquz and trainer H Allen Jerkens. She’s also making the switch from turf to dirt. She could surprise. Watch her on the track and on the tote.



Race Three:


In this six furlong optional claimer, I’m giving my lukewarm nod to :7: Mikey Likes It. She has hit the board in all four of her pari-mutual tries. In her last at Delaware Park, this very-well bred filly finished second in stakes company as a one-to-two favorite. Prior to that she was third in the Trevose at Philly Park. She’s been away from the races for over a month; yet her morning works look solid. #8 Pelago is a four-year old Southern Halo-bred filly has won her last two down in Kentucky in convincing fashion. She’ll be ridden by the most capable Javier Castellano; she’s trained by the equally capable Mike Maker. She should be in a good stalking position down the backstretch. A note of caution: she has been off for about two months; yet her morning works do appear solid. #3 Catalonia finished second in her last, a 50K optional claimer. This well-bred Gone West filly won at first asking as a two-year old last October at Belmont. Yet, she was eased in her first 2012 start. She does have, however, a solid four-furlong work; she breezed the half-mile in :47 secs. flat. Jose Lezcano rides for Robert Barbara. Another horse to consider is Finally, #5 Union Boss has hit the tote in two of four lifetime tries. She won at first asking this February at Gulfstream. She was second in her last, a 30K claimer at Belmont in mid-June. Rosie Napravnik rides for Carl Domino.



Race Four: In the mile-and one-sixteenth Endear Stakes I like :1a: Tiz The Argument. She looks like “the logical” choice. My only concern is the fact that this Tiznow-bred filly hasn’t raced since being entered in state-bred 300K stakes company at Gulfstream Park in late January. In that one, the filly set some hot early fractions before succumbing to the torrid pace; she ended up finishing fifth. Prior to that she won three straight. Ramon Dominguez rides for Rick Dutrow. #2 R Gypsy Gold has hit the tote in all four tries at the distance. Although the filly has not been out since mid March, she’s had a decent morning work-tab. In her last race at Tampa Bay Downs this A.P. Indy-bred filly finished second in the Wayward Lass Stakes. Prior to that she tried the Grade 1 Gazelle Stakes. Although she was well supported at 5/2, she came up empty and finished off the board. Javier Castellano rides for trainer Todd Pletcher. #6 Miss Valentine has hit the tote nine times in 13 lifetime tries. The AfleetAlex-bred filly has won five races; there are several stakes among those wins. She was fifth in the Grade 1 Gazelle last November. She appears to be the main threat. Julien Laporoux rides for Christophe Clement. #5 Opus A has won three of her last four. This Smoke Glacken-bred mare has hit the tote in 11 of 14 lifetime starts. Although she hasn’t raced in a month and a half, this five-year old mare has a solid morning work-tab. Alan Garcia rides for Richard Violette, Jr.



Race Five:


In this five-furlong maiden special weights event, every horse entered is a first-time starter. What’s a handicapper to do? Well, for one I’m checking each 2-year-old filly’s pedigree to see if I can spot a sire or dam that will support a possible win-at-first-asking genealogy. I’ve decided to opt for :7: Sweet N Discreet. On the dam’s side, the filly is by Gone West. Gone West-bred horses often make good first-time starters. To add to my belief that this horse can be a contender she recently drilled four furlongs in :48.2, breezing from the gate. Javier Castellano rides for trainer Todd Pletcher. Another horse to consider is #5 Distortion, On the sire’s side, there’s Distorted Humor and Forty Niner. These are two sires that have been known to produce offspring who are capable of winning at first asking. The filly did have a recent sharp four-furlong work at the Saratoga training track; she reeled off a half-mile in :49 flat. Corey Nakatani rides for trainer Nick Zito. Yet, another horse that I believe is worthy of consideration is #6 Dixiluna with Rosie Napravnik in the irons for trainer Eoin Harty. The filly also has Gone West breeding on the dam’s side. Speaking of the dam, she had two winners from three starters. One final note: Keep an eye on both the post parade and the tote.



Race Six: :8: Zapoutofit did not get the best of trips in a mile turf route about a month ago. The Awesome Again-bred filly was up close in the early going along the rail but got trapped in behind horses in a large field. She did mount a minor drive toward the end but by then this three-year old had run out of real estate. She now draws an outside post and cuts back a couple furlongs. Both of these circumstances should work to the filly’s advantage. If she can get clear sailing, she’s very much a player here. Julien Laparoux, Un Francais himself, rides for trainer Dale Romans. Another filly to consider is #5 Our Pink Ribbon with Javier Castellano. The Sultry Song-bred filly switches back to the grass after an uneventful foray on a sloppy dirt surface. She also adds blinkers; that may well help her chances. She also had a sharp four-furlong work about a week ago. The most capable Javier Castellano rides for Bruce Brown. #7 Tati with Junior Alvarado for Tom Bush returns to the turf after finishing up the track in a main track effort. In her only turf try, this Carson City-bred filly ended up near the rear of the field in a seven-furlong sprint. However, she was leading to the top of the stretch. The cut-back to six furlongs might just do the trick. Finally, #6 Galaxy Jet has only hit the board once in seven turf tries. Yet, I would label him, “best the rest”. He is most capable, on his best effort of completing a gimmick. In the turf race in which he finished third, he both stumbled and was bumped. A cleaner try would enhance this horse’s chances of completing an exotic. Jose Ortiz rides for trainer Carlos Martin.



Race Seven:


In this turf-route allowance race, I like :8: Inimitable Romanee. She appears most logical. This Wavering Monarch-bred filly was the beaten-a-neck fave in her last. She has a chance to make amends. She is adding blinkers today (was she looking around in the stretch) and her morning work-tab has been very good. She’s finished first and second in two tries at the distance. The veteran Edgar Prado rides for trainer Graham Motion. Another horse to consider is #4 Mah Jong Madness. She stretches out an extra furlong - that should help. The horse was closing in her last but simply ran out of real estate. She also gets a significant jockey change to the most skilled Ramon Dominguez. He rides for trainer John Morrison (no winners but five out of nine in the money). This Storm Cat-bred filly has hit the tote in two of three turf tries. Another horse on my radar screen is #7 She’s Always Hot was second in a similar race a few weeks ago. This Storm Cat-bred filly has hit the tote in three of four turf tries. Eddie Castro rides for trainer Ed Allard. Finally, there's #11 Penthouse Party with Rajiv Maragh for trainer Mary Eppler. This Wild Again bred filly has a chance of hitting the tote here. The filly did break her maiden at this distance in early April. She’s one for two in turf tries.



Race Eight: :1: X Remand did not run his race in an optional claimer after over a two-month layoff. Well, the horse has had another two-month layoff (the thought of it unsettles me). Yet, this horse has a strong back-class background that you just can‘t ignore. This Valid Appeal-bred horse raced in Grade 2 and Grade 3 stakes company last year. Any return to his former stature and could easily win this race. But why is he being put in for a tag? Eddie Castro‘s in the irons for trainer John Terranova. #8 Litigate is my afternoon longshot upset try. The horse did face slightly better in a recent turf effort; he finished off the board. Yet, he was a fast-closing fourth. He now switches back to the main track. I like the turf-to-dirt angle. He also adds blinkers. Rajiv Maragh rides for trainer Dave Duggan. This 4-year-old Successful Appeal-bred gelding has faced better. He’s hit the tote in four of nine lifetime starts. #7 Political Justice should be “on the engine” and playing cathch me if you can. He’ll likely be setting quarter-horse like fractions as he races past the furlong markers. Does he have the endurance to last? The Unbridled’s Song-bred colt has won two of his last three. Wilmer Garcia rides for Rene Araya. #3 King Henry may well be in a very good stalking position. The four-yerar old A.P. Indy-bred gelding won his last in a race that was taken off the turf and run on the main track at Monmouth about a month ago. The horse has hit the board in eight of 12 lifetime tries. Rosie Napravnik rides for Bruce Alexander.



Race Nine:


In the one-mile Poker Stakes on the turf, I like :10: Voodoo Storm with jockey Joel Rosario in the irons for trainer “Shug” McGaughey I believe this horse has a chance of getting all the enchiladas. This Storm Cat-bred colt narrowly missed in his last in optional claiming company. He was slow early in that one and then rallied in the stretch only to run out of real estate. An alert start might be all that's needed to put this horse in connection. He’s won twice in nine tries on the lawn. Another horse to consider is #9 Right One with Julien Laparoux for trainer Christophe Clement. In his last, the horse was second in the Grade 3 Jaipur. The Danzig-bred French import has hit the tote in 13 of 21 lifetime tries. The horse has hit the tote in eight of 11 tries at the distance. The gelding should be coming from off the tailgate to mount his late-closing charge. Laparoux must time it perfectly to earn the victory. #1 Compliance Officer is another horse who has solid chance of being there at the wire. This Bertrando-bred gelding won his last, The Kingston, at Belmont back on May 27. A week ago, this six-year old gelding had a “bullet” work; he breezed five furlongs in a 1:00.3. Javier Castellano rides for Bruce Brown. #5 Yield Bogey was third in the aforementioned Grade 3 Jaipur. He set the pace inside but faded in the strtch. It appears that turf sprints are more to this horse’s liking. He’s most capable of surprising, especially if he were to get loose on the lead. He did finish second in last year’s edition of The Poker as a 20-1 shot. Edgar Prado reprises his ride for trainer Patrick Kelly.



Race Ten:


In the finale, a maiden special weights route on the Widener Turf Couse, I like :10: Alarmed Ndangerous with Ramon Dominguez for Linda Rice. The Wagon Limit-bred gelding has hit the tote in five of six turf tries. He is cutting back slightly, that should help. The horse had a recent solid work. They’re also taking the blinkers off. Maybe his connections feel that he can better see both his surrounding and his rivals. Whatever it takes. #11 Windafull wassecond in his last at this distance in a 60K maiden special race He retains the services of Cornelio Velasquez for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. He’s been the beaten fave in his last two. He’s consistently hit the tote in his last four. #8 Frisky Cat showed little from his inside starting post in his last. He now moves to an outside starting poist where he should be able to free-wheel. That should enhance this horse’s chances of hitting the tote. Ariel Smith rides for Patrick Kelly. The Storm Cat-bred gelding narrowly missed winning a seven furlong race on the turf back on May 12. Finally, #3 Easy Street has one third-place finish in two lifetime turf tries. This three-year old is a Cozzene-bred; he shows that he may have room for improvement. At the very least, he might well complete one of your gimmicks. Junior Alvarado rides for trainer Tom Bush.