maddog42
07-02-2012, 09:36 PM
Much like the Seinfeld episode where George decides to do the opposite of what his natural instinct were, about 4 months ago I did it to my handicapping. I had lost for the previous 10 months, so why not ?I have mentioned before that I got away from my 3rd fraction/PPF pars (except on Turf, or when applicable) and started playing early speed. At some tracks this worked great and I started winning. My win betting was only losing in the 4%to 6% range, but I was still losing. I stopped buying the racing Form and started using the Freebie Equibase or the thick multitrack Equibase Form/program at Remington. And much like George who told the beautiful gal at the Snack Bar that he lived at home with his Parents and was unemployed, I also started to Score. I was no longer staying up half the night, doing my own Speed figures and 3rd fraction ratings.
I was playing almost totally exotics(mainly tri's) where as before, almost exclusively win bets.
For the past few weeks I have been wondering WHY I started winning.
(a) While before I was a numbers guy, numbers have taken a back seat to form, running styles and early speed. Apparently I had all the tools ( been handicapping for almost 25 years) but was such a numbers guy, I couldn't get away from that stinking number.
(b) While I have done a bunch of rude bragging/red boarding, My boast about picking longshots to finish in the money was absolutely accurate. So I drug the Cramer "trifecta as show bet" tactic out of the closet and "voila" I started hitting $50 tri's with my longshots in the 2 or 3 hole beneath obvious favorites.
(c) I kept a few things from my old way of handicapping: Picking Pacelines and contenders, and the betting line. I have noticed that a bunch of handicappers have gotten away from the "picking pacelines" approach. Not me.
(d) I may be dellusional, but has equibase gotten better or what? I have read at least a dozen times on this board that Equibase sucks, and largely I have agreed in the past. Cj mentions it and many others. I use speed and pace almost exclusively to pick contenders, but for some reason it is working. I have done no formal study of Equibase/Beyer/Bris and have read the other threads, but I think they are closer than you guys think.
I have done a bit of bragging in this thread and I apologize. But I have a reason. Don't get stuck in the losing rut. Try something different. Keep the best part of your arsenal and junk the rest. It is scary, I know. You cannot win if you keep on doing the same old sh*t.
PS This little diatribe was not meant to say that making your own figures is bad, or that hard work was not the answer. I learned a lot from making my own speed and pace figures. It damn sure freed up a lot of time for me to shore up various weaknesses that I had in other areas like form and betting.
What have you got to lose? If the new approach fails(and it probably will) go back to the old way.
PPS Those condensed PP's with only 4 past races from Equibase STILL SUCK.
If I can't have more than 4 past races in a pp I will pass.
I was playing almost totally exotics(mainly tri's) where as before, almost exclusively win bets.
For the past few weeks I have been wondering WHY I started winning.
(a) While before I was a numbers guy, numbers have taken a back seat to form, running styles and early speed. Apparently I had all the tools ( been handicapping for almost 25 years) but was such a numbers guy, I couldn't get away from that stinking number.
(b) While I have done a bunch of rude bragging/red boarding, My boast about picking longshots to finish in the money was absolutely accurate. So I drug the Cramer "trifecta as show bet" tactic out of the closet and "voila" I started hitting $50 tri's with my longshots in the 2 or 3 hole beneath obvious favorites.
(c) I kept a few things from my old way of handicapping: Picking Pacelines and contenders, and the betting line. I have noticed that a bunch of handicappers have gotten away from the "picking pacelines" approach. Not me.
(d) I may be dellusional, but has equibase gotten better or what? I have read at least a dozen times on this board that Equibase sucks, and largely I have agreed in the past. Cj mentions it and many others. I use speed and pace almost exclusively to pick contenders, but for some reason it is working. I have done no formal study of Equibase/Beyer/Bris and have read the other threads, but I think they are closer than you guys think.
I have done a bit of bragging in this thread and I apologize. But I have a reason. Don't get stuck in the losing rut. Try something different. Keep the best part of your arsenal and junk the rest. It is scary, I know. You cannot win if you keep on doing the same old sh*t.
PS This little diatribe was not meant to say that making your own figures is bad, or that hard work was not the answer. I learned a lot from making my own speed and pace figures. It damn sure freed up a lot of time for me to shore up various weaknesses that I had in other areas like form and betting.
What have you got to lose? If the new approach fails(and it probably will) go back to the old way.
PPS Those condensed PP's with only 4 past races from Equibase STILL SUCK.
If I can't have more than 4 past races in a pp I will pass.