Adjusting times

[Tom]

How do you:

1. Adjust for track-to-track?
2. Adjust for different daily variants?
a. know what the daily variant is?
3. Distribute the adjsutment over the four race calls?

[trying2win]

Tom,

--Those are excellent questions! After all these years of harness handicapping, even I don't know the answers to any of your questions on adjusting time. It's usually not a big problem for me, because most of the time the same horses are running at a particular track I'm handicapping.

--Usually I skip horses running for the first time on a different track, unless they're on the same circuit. Probably read that advice in a handicapping book many years ago. I'm assuming that generally it's a good rule. But, I have been known to be wrong in my assumptions! (Does the "School of Hard Knocks" ring a bell?). Can someone please enlighten me if I'm wrong?

--I didn't bet anything at the Meadowlands yesterday, but in the 11th race, the eventual winner JOSHUA had just run a race at FREEHOLD, switched over to the track at the BIG M, won and paid a nice $22.80 on the nose. Of course, a lot of us SHOULDA, WOULDA, COULDA had a lot of longshot winners after a race is over! The point is, I don't think FREEHOLD and the BIG M are on the same circuit, (FREEHOLD being a cheaper class track). But, I guess there are exceptions. If a person knew how to do track-to-track time adjustments, maybe some sharp handicappers could make exceptions to their "handicapping rules" and ferret out a winner like JOSHUA.

--Speaking of horses running on the same circuit. One example is the MAYWOOD/BALMORAL circuit in the Chicago area. MAYWOOD is a half mile oval, and BALMORAL is one mile in circumference. It would be nice to know how to compute the time difference adjustments, when the horses are switching between these two tracks.

---PANDY has been posting here at the PA site lately, so maybe he would be kind enough to give us some insight into your questions.


Trying2win

[sq764]

Ok, ready for an easy answer (and the answer I have used for 6 years now)??

Ignore them.. The USTA track to track speed figure times are horrendous and totally innacurate and frankly even if you adjust yourself, it's almost not advantageous to do so.

I have compared results from adjusting for 1/2 mile tracks to mile tracks and not adjusting at all. Actually the non-adjusted figures fare much better.

[Exactaman]

Originally posted by Tom
How do you:

1. Adjust for track-to-track?
2. Adjust for different daily variants?
a. know what the daily variant is?
3. Distribute the adjsutment over the four race calls?

1. very difficult, you have tracks ranging in size from 1/2 to 1 mile, going from 4 to 2 turns. even on the same size track different configurations/surfaces, night/day racing, prevailing driver strategies can alter the typical running pattern and times of races between tracks. almost impossible to convert with any accuracy.

2. daily variants are shown in all programs.

3. difficult again. on a half miler you have an equal amount of turn and straight in each 1/4, not so on the bigger tracks. different segments of a race will be the key from race to race and track to track.

many people--and i am one--will tell you that the final time is not that important of a factor in harness. much more important is how a horse performed during key portions of a race, most importantly the stretch. for one thing horses may register a fast time while following the draft of other horses. if the have to get away from that cover and move on their own they will not likely be able to duplicate such a time.

[Exactaman]

Originally posted by trying2win

--I didn't bet anything at the Meadowlands yesterday, but in the 11th race, the eventual winner JOSHUA had just run a race at FREEHOLD, switched over to the track at the BIG M, won and paid a nice $22.80 on the nose. Of course, a lot of us SHOULDA, WOULDA, COULDA had a lot of longshot winners after a race is over! The point is, I don't think FREEHOLD and the BIG M are on the same circuit, (FREEHOLD being a cheaper class track). But, I guess there are exceptions. If a person knew how to do track-to-track time adjustments, maybe some sharp handicappers could make exceptions to their "handicapping rules" and ferret out a winner like JOSHUA.

Trying2win

They are really the same circuit, horses shuttle between the two tracks often, esp. at the higher classes at freehold. knowing the trainer/horse is key here. the trainer here ford often shuttles his horses between freehold/yonkers/m1. if his freehold lines looked good i wouldn't hesitate to play him. also the horse has raced at m1 before, showing some good speed on occasion if i recall.

converting times between the two tracks would in most cases be a pointless exercise. freehold has a notorious front-runners bias even for a half mile track (which generally favor frontrunners) fast times there will not necessarily carry over to m1. much more important is the general sharpness of the horse, how well he fits the conditions and the ability of the trainer at m1.

[trying2win]

Exactaman,

--Thanks for the great insights on some aspects of harness handicapping. I sense you really know your stuff on this sport!


Trying2win

[Exactaman]

thanks, I hope so. week in week out i put the time into it.

[Tom]

Neat avatar :D

[Exactaman]

ha ha, that's my homegrown overlay finder.

[JoeG]

How do you:

1. Adjust for track-to-track?

I use a "home-grown" number partially based on the average track times and adjusted with a little common sense.

2. Adjust for different daily variants?

I use the daily variants listed in the trackmaster files as part of the adjustment for the paceline times.

3. Distribute the adjsutment over the four race calls?

I keep the adjustment proportional across all fractions and also include a slight adjustment factored from the postposition the horse started from (base on a chart for each racetrack that I keep and update monthly)

I think raw times are about the same (though I prefer the adjusted lines) and the key is picking the right paceline as the "key" paceline. I use only one paceline to represent the horse and it must come from the last 21 days. It can be a qualifier too. All my paceline selection and adjustments are done through the .exe files from trackmaster and export from MS Access.

The other thing to note is each track has a general bias where certain past fractions dominate. I find the individual quarters are not usually the most consistant fractions, but 2 combined quarters (like Scott's half and final) are where the gems hide. A large majority of horses who win dominate 2 quarters of a race. The key is finding which quarters are best for each track.

One problem is that tracks have "off" nights where the track is biased differently and the fractions you look at have no predictive value. And there are some tracks where the fractions mean nothing.

When I create my file for each track, I also create a number rating for each horse that does not include speed or pace, only consitancy, post pos, driver, etc (ala Tom here). Again this works great at some (but not all) tracks or at least on some types of races. The race I use this rating most are races where one or more horses don't have a representative paceline. If I have a high odds horse rated in the top 2 or 3 without a representative paceline, it can be a longshot play.

That's what i do in a nutshell. I'm still refining the way I play as paceline harness capping is still a fairly new component to my arsonal. I'm running some files now and will post (a little late) part of the files from balmoral and woodbine tonight. It will be a redboard sample of the prevailing fractions from each track listed. I'll try and post some numbers for tracks before they run Monday.

[JoeG]

Here's a list of the horse's sorted by the fraction that dominates at Balmoral. HPts is the non pace rating, Fraction is the sorted fraction, Final time is the adjusted final time, and Mod is a spot play (courtesy of melman):


RceName HPtsFractioFinal TiMod
1 HOWBIGABOYAREYOU 47 56.4 118.5 -
1 BOILER VICTORY 45 56.9 118.7 -
1 KENNAN'S BOBBY 44 57.2 119.3 -
1 JAXX 46 57.4 119.2 -
1 HIGHER CALLING 50 57.7 117.7 -
1 SQUIRT THE MILKMAN 36 58.6 117.5 -
1 SYCAMORE WARRIOR 45 59 121 -
1 TATOR'S BOY 33 59.2 118.8 -
1 LOOKIERE BLUEGRASS 44 59.6 117.1 -
1 VIC GRAM 62 59.8 118.7 X

2 SOMETHIN' HOT 58 56.7 118.3 -
2 SHE BE DRAGON 53 57.7 118.2 -
2 COUNTRY PLAY GIRL 48 58.7 119.5 -
2 ITSAREALSTRETCH 56 58.7 117.7 -
2 OG'S CHERIE P 42 59.3 119 -
2 OG'S SCOOTNBOOGIE 38 59.5 120.2 -
2 FOX VALLEY ATHENA 41 60.1 119.4 -
2 START TO CRUISE 46 60.5 120.4 -
2 SERIOUS INTENTIONS 47 61.5 119.4 -
2 VALVO LYNN 51 -

3 MUSKIEMAR I 62 51.8 121 -
3 EARLICHARGE 63 58.2 121.1 -
3 GT'S ROYAL FLUSH 72 58.6 118.2 X
3 LOYZ BLACKJACK 58 59.2 119.7 -
3 PLESANT VIEW ROCKY 52 59.7 120 -
3 BLUESTONE BAD BOY 76 60.4 121.2 -
3 CMEBATROTTER 63 62.1 121 -

4 PLEASEPASSTHEJELLY 94 55.2 112.7 -
4 BEACH RUNNER ROSIE 60 55.4 113.7 -
4 GYPSY'S TORPEDO 60 56.2 115.2 -
4 SUNNY N CHEER 44 56.6 115.4 -
4 ESS JAY BEE N 47 56.9 116 -
4 SPORTY CAM 63 57.2 115 -
4 BIG SISTER 61 57.5 115 -
4 TWIN B GODDESS 75 58 113.7 X
4 HEAVEN AND EARTH 48 58.8 115.4 -

5 GREEK EASTER BUNNY 77 57.8 117.8 X
5 RAINBOW REVIEW 76 57.9 118.8 -
5 HANDSOME BUNNY 57 59.3 119.5 -
5 ORANGE POP 72 59.4 119.5 -
5 BROOKVIEW TREASURE 100 59.7 118 -
5 NEVER PASS 91 60 119.4 -
5 ARMBRO ARISTOCRAT 58 60.6 120.2 -

6 IDEAL CAPE 63 53.6 117.5 -
6 ALEXANDRA K 67 55.8 112.9 -
6 WHY NOT MOLLY 86 56.1 112.7 X
6 MONEY TRAIN 74 56.2 113.7 -
6 BASIC BROWN 72 56.7 115.3 -
6 DLJ DIRECT 50 56.8 114.5 -
6 BREEZY KNOLL SADIE 53 56.9 114.7 -
6 MARGIES DAUGHTER 78 57.6 114.4 -
6 LETSGO FOREVER 65 -

7 V EIGHT 62 55.7 117.2 -
7 SEA WIND YANKEE 86 56.7 117.2 -
7 ROMPAWAY TRAVIS 48 57.3 119 -
7 EVICT 83 58.8 117.1 X
7 AARODAN DOT 45 59.1 119.1 -
7 TOM BRUCE 70 59.2 118.9 -
7 TWISTED AND BENT 93 60.6 119.7 -
7 SURE DID STORM 59 61.1 118.8 -

8 HAROLD JOHN N 55 54.9 112.9 -
8 HENRY WEST 79 55.3 112.1 -
8 THERMOELECTRIC 46 55.6 112.6 -
8 SPORTS DESIGN 58 56 112.2 -
8 THETHREEPANNYOPERA 55 56.6 113 -
8 NINETY SEVEN 71 56.9 113.4 -
8 FANCY CREEK FOOL 70 57 113.8 -
8 LORD TANUS N 73 57 112.8 -

9 FIERY COMET 65 57 117.1 -
9 BANKER'S REVIEW 63 57.7 118.8 -
9 HELLO POPPA 59 57.9 116.6 -
9 TROTTIN' TARZAN 62 57.9 117.1 X
9 SEQUEL RANGER 71 58.8 117.2 -
9 DEUCES WILD 78 58.9 118.2 -
9 MISS ANALEA 69 60.3 118.2 -

10 CUT THROAT 61 53.9 110.7 -
10 COUNT VIKING 67 54.3 112.7 -
10 ARDEN'S HERITAGE N 44 54.7 111.5 -
10 EATON EM UP 47 56.9 115 -
10 DECOY A 60 57.2 113.3 X
10 PAIR OF CARDS 73 57.3 111 -
10 THANK ME LATER 58 57.7 113.7 -
10 THISOLDARTOFMINE 62 57.7 115.2 -
10 JUST AN ICON N 53 58.6 115.8 -
10 JW'S MOE MONEY 69 59.5 115.6 -

11 MR HOWARD 50 54.2 115.7 -
11 CHEYENNE ELI 61 55.4 114.3 -
11 RONNIE REVRAC 56 56.2 115.3 -
11 OLIVER CUSTIS 74 56.9 115.1 -
11 INCITER 71 56.9 116.3 -
11 BEACH BOY BLUES 46 57.6 118.4 -
11 EROTIC CITY 73 58.2 115.5 -
11 ALITTLE SUMTHINHOT 53 58.3 118.7 -
11 BROADWAY IMAGE 41 59.9 118.2 -
11 GERRY'S BOY 71 -

12 G-PAW 74 50 117.6 -
12 STORM OFF THE CAPE 53 56.4 116.8 -
12 SMOKE DAWG 46 56.4 120.9 -
12 DR MINE-KEY 42 57 117.6 -
12 DOKEY'S TEES 44 57.2 118.1 -
12 WINDY CITY MAJOR 48 57.4 121.3 -
12 SAVEABUCK 63 58 116.9 -
12 DRIVE BY 58 58 117.4 -
12 ODDS ON DOUG 74 58.1 117.5 -
12 GIVE US A SIGN 57 -

[JoeG]

Trk RceNum Name ML HPtsFrac Time
WDB 1 5 UNION HILL 3 63 58.6 119.6
WDB 1 3 MY PERSONAL BEST 20 47 59.0 117.5
WDB 1 4 DANCE LEGEND 15 57 59.3 119.7
WDB 1 2 RIGHT WAY 2 76 59.3 118.1
WDB 1 8 TROTTIN UPA DREAM 7 60 59.3 118.4
WDB 1 10 PURPLE FLASH 15 48 59.8 123.8
WDB 1 1 TARA TULLAMORE 20 50 59.8 120.4
WDB 1 7 ROSIE RUSH N 6 69 60.1 118.6
WDB 1 9 STAR TEE N TEE 5 50 60.4 118.7
WDB 1 6 BJS PREDATOR 15 66

WDB 2 2 NOBLE INTENT 7 94 55.5 111.7
WDB 2 3 FALSE ALARM 6 86 56.1 112.0
WDB 2 4 PLAYING FIELD 6 98 56.9 112.5
WDB 2 1 YULESTAR N 5 107 57.4 112.7
WDB 2 5 ADMIRALS EXPRESS 1 122 57.8 111.9
WDB 2 6 LUCKYISASLUCKYDOES 3 107 58.0 112.5

WDB 3 1 JIMSBOY 7 69 57.1 114.7
WDB 3 2 THE HEATHON 4 80 57.4 115.5
WDB 3 3 ROCKYMOSA RAPTOR 8 73 57.9 115.9
WDB 3 7 INCREDIBLE COLE 4 75 58.3 115.5
WDB 3 8 O BOB 6 71 59.1 118.0
WDB 3 6 ARMBRO TOKEN 12 73 59.2 117.4
WDB 3 5 SUPER SPICY 2 71 59.3 116.1
WDB 3 4 ARMBRO VISION 6 87 59.5 116.9

WDB 4 4 KING ADRIAN 20 54 57.1 116.3
WDB 4 5 PRINCE VAL 15 57 57.7 117.2
WDB 4 6 MIDLAND MANIAC 10 69 59.0 116.7
WDB 4 3 PANADE HANOVER 3 61 59.0 117.0
WDB 4 2 WISE OLD OWL 5 54 59.7 118.4
WDB 4 9 ALLAMERICAN UNIQUE 3.5 45 59.8 119.8
WDB 4 1 RUPERT RUPERT 7 105 61.1 118.0
WDB 4 7 TREVOR JAY B 4.5 59 61.3 117.2
WDB 4 8 CAPE CRUSADE 12 34
WDB 4 10 YANKEE BELIEVER 7 38

WDB 5 4 G SPRING 7 73 57.2 113.9
WDB 5 1 BUBBA DUNN 12 91 58.1 116.0
WDB 5 8 ABBEY ROAD C 3 121 58.2 114.9
WDB 5 10 ORBIT 4.5 90 58.2 114.8
WDB 5 9 YARDDAWG 6 80 58.7 115.4
WDB 5 3 LOCOFOCO N 3.5 131 58.9 115.5
WDB 5 6 TRUE STORY 20 84 59.1 116.8
WDB 5 2 JAKES NORDIC 30 85 59.2 115.8
WDB 5 7 ALL THAT SNAZZ 12 105 59.4 116.1
WDB 5 5 LIBERTY BALANCE 12 119 59.8 118.2
WDB 5 11 MONSIEUR JEROME 7 60 60.4 115.6

WDB 6 5 ARMBRO TRAVIS 8 70 55.9 112.9
WDB 6 7 NEEDMORE MOOSE 2.5 79 56.4 113.3
WDB 6 6 KENSINGTON 7 64 56.6 113.7
WDB 6 8 PAY THE FIDDLER 3 84 56.7 113.5
WDB 6 9 STADIUM DRIVE 6 82 56.9 113.5
WDB 6 4 PHANTOM POWER 20 58 57.8 115.9
WDB 6 1 BETHEREINAJIFFY 12 52 57.9 116.9
WDB 6 3 CRY HAVOC N 20 62 57.9 116.5
WDB 6 2 BRILLIANT GAMBLE 6 71 58.0 115.4
WDB 6 10 STONEBRIDGE CHARM 10 50

WDB 7 1 LOVE SHARK 5 42 58.6 116.4
WDB 7 8 YOUASKEDFORIT 10 54 58.7 116.0
WDB 7 9 GENGHIS PAN 2 69 58.9 115.5
WDB 7 5 OSLER B CREEK 7 53 59.0 117.0
WDB 7 4 WEIRD ALBERT 20 55 60.1 118.9
WDB 7 3 CYPRUS EXPRESS 12 58 60.5 118.0
WDB 7 6 POSTMASTER MO 6 71 60.5 117.5
WDB 7 10 STANDING BEAR 3 47 60.5 117.4
WDB 7 2 CR HOT TAMALE 15 41 60.6 118.0
WDB 7 7 CAPITAL Q 15 43 62.6 122.4

WDB 8 8 SHOWBOAT CAPTAIN 20 50 54.9 113.5
WDB 8 3 J M HOMBRE 2.5 78 56.4 114.8
WDB 8 6 FANTOME DEREVE 3.5 73 56.9 114.2
WDB 8 5 HAWKSTER 5 84 56.9 113.8
WDB 8 1 MYSTICAL CALL 4.5 75 57.6 114.2
WDB 8 7 SPECIAL AC 20 57 58.0 116.1
WDB 8 9 BROOKLAND BRIDGE N 4 57 59.0 115.6
WDB 8 4 TUXEDO KID 10 46 59.4 115.6
WDB 8 2 ST EMILION HANOVER 15 63 60.7 118.6

WDB 9 7 DIAMOND GOAL 8 82 57.0 115.5
WDB 9 9 COSINGTON 10 94 57.3 116.1
WDB 9 6 GYPSY BALANCE 3.5 106 58.0 115.7
WDB 9 4 HUNT M DOWN 4 128 58.4 115.3
WDB 9 8 CAESAR 8 79 58.8 117.1
WDB 9 5 EARL OF BRANT 12 75 58.8 116.5
WDB 9 3 NORTHERN BAILEY 8 81 59.5 116.5
WDB 9 2 DREAM LAVEC 2.5 74 59.7 118.1
WDB 9 1 SON OF GRACE 7 72 60.6 117.4

WDB 10 6 CAVIART JACKSON 8 68 55.9 113.7
WDB 10 2 C WS SPECIAL 4.5 76 56.9 112.0
WDB 10 1 THE MASTERS 8 68 57.0 112.8
WDB 10 5 FOX VALLEY STING 10 62 57.2 113.9
WDB 10 3 SUPERMATTURAL 4.5 60 57.6 113.6
WDB 10 8 F MS DREAM 3.5 68 58.2 113.7
WDB 10 7 FIRSTLINE LUCK 2.5 66 59.0 114.2
WDB 10 4 ONE BIG BUSTER 10 57 59.1 114.7

WDB 11 3 PRESIDENTIAL MOOD 10 58 54.8 112.9
WDB 11 5 RUN OF LUCK 12 59 55.8 112.5
WDB 11 9 SCOLEALA A 3.5 66 56.2 113.8
WDB 11 6 TERRIFIC MCGOOZER 7 55 56.2 114.4
WDB 11 8 CARTMAN 5 46 56.3 115.3
WDB 11 4 TRIPLE LENGTHS 15 57 56.9 113.3
WDB 11 2 SPORTSTER 20 59 57.4 116.4
WDB 11 7 TAJMA HALL 6 60 58.0 115.9
WDB 11 1 CANADIAN OUTLAW 15 45 58.7 115.8
WDB 11 10 FELLOWSHIP DIVINE 2.5 53

[melman]

Nice work as usual JoeG. Taking it on a $2 to win per race basis we have 23 races @ $2 per race. Thus a total of Bet $46 Return $59.20 and another winning day at the harness office. Good Job!!