POTD

[BlueChip@DRF]

I might as well jump in seeing that it doesn't hurt so much when one loses with their tout.

June 26, 2012
Fort Erie
Race 2
:4: U Get The Picture
This filly seems to thrive at Fort Erie, and I'm not just talking about the track but the environment. Woodbine did not really suit this horse. She has run well on the FE (true)dirt and had a decent run on the FE turf. She was claimed exactly one week ago and is now running again up in class. In her last start she ate up a lot of ground in the stretch and got up for 2nd in her first start against winners albeit N2L. Her last speed figure towers above most of the field. She should do well if she is still in form and I guess the connections are trying to strike while the iron is still hot. At 8/1, I would take a flyer.

20w at 8/1 or lower
5w/15p at above 8/1

20-cent superfectas
47/47/all/all
47/all/47/all

[marksinger]

I might as well jump in seeing that it doesn't hurt so much when one loses with their tout.

June 26, 2012
Fort Erie
Race 2
:4: U Get The Picture
This filly seems to thrive at Fort Erie, and I'm not just talking about the track but the environment. Woodbine did not really suit this horse. She has run well on the FE (true)dirt and had a decent run on the FE turf. She was claimed exactly one week ago and is now running again up in class. In her last start she ate up a lot of ground in the stretch and got up for 2nd in her first start against winners albeit N2L. Her last speed figure towers above most of the field. She should do well if she is still in form and I guess the connections are trying to strike while the iron is still hot. At 8/1, I would take a flyer.

20w at 8/1 or lower
5w/15p at above 8/1

20-cent superfectas
47/47/all/all
47/all/47/all
Good luck

[KidCapper]

Nice selection. Was definately a live runner! Just missed on the last jump there!

[BlueChip@DRF]

Nice selection. Was definately a live runner! Just missed on the last jump there!

No way I saw the :6: hanging on like that. Is it me or does the track seem biased towards speed today? Maybe too early to tell but there is not a lot of dirt kicking up.

[theBozyn]

At the bottom of your post you wrote "$5 exacta box 3-13, every chance I get". Are these just you lucky numbers or is there a sound reasoning for this?

[BlueChip@DRF]

My lucky numbers. It's rare enough that there is a :13: in the race so at least I don't go broke, but since there is no '31', I have to switch them around. My birthday is March 31.

It's just a simple action bet I actively search for at Belmont when in season, Woodbine when in season, and all thoroughbred tracks on the day of my birthday. I play this exbox randomly during the rest of the year if I happen to catch it. It doesn't hit all the time, but it pays nicely when it does.

__________________________________________________ ______

Which brings us to our next Pick/Play of the Day....

June 28, 2012
Hollywood Park
Race 8 MSW

Cold Exacta - :3: Purple Prose over :7: Executivepriviledge

I think we all know about Baffert and his horses have replaced the original definition of 'overbet' in Webster's Dictionary. And with Executivepriviledge's dam having 5 winners from 5 starters she looks just all too formidable. But these are maidens and it's a horse race and they still have to run it in order to prove it. Baffert knows that all too well. However, he does have a tiny nemesis in the name of Cho. He was the trainer/owner of Premier Pegasus (RIP) and had always found it a challenge to beat Baffert. Kind of like the underdog team who goes all out when a champion comes to town. Owned and trained by Cho, Purple Prose's sire strikes at a 50% win rate with 1st time starters.

[theBozyn]

Thanks for the reply. I was curious as I always throw the 13 horse in the mix whenever I spot one. A lot of times they come off the also-eligible list and are overlooked.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I love horses on the AE list. I jump on the ones that a top rider switched over to from the one he was originally assigned to ride in the original program. Odds would drop, though. Back in 2010 there was a 15-1(ML) on the AE list that dropped to 7-1 when Desormeaux jumped ship from another horse in the field that was 4-1(ML). That was back when Desormeaux was pretty much an automatic bet in turf sprints. Those days are long gone....

Also, those on the AE list coming back in two weeks or less.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Which brings us to our next Pick/Play of the Day....

June 28, 2012
Hollywood Park
Race 8 MSW

Cold Exacta - :3: Purple Prose over :7: Executivepriviledge

I think we all know about Baffert and his horses have replaced the original definition of 'overbet' in Webster's Dictionary. And with Executivepriviledge's dam having 5 winners from 5 starters she looks just all too formidable. But these are maidens and it's a horse race and they still have to run it in order to prove it. Baffert knows that all too well. However, he does have a tiny nemesis in the name of Cho. He was the trainer/owner of Premier Pegasus (RIP) and had always found it a challenge to beat Baffert. Kind of like the underdog team who goes all out when a champion comes to town. Owned and trained by Cho, Purple Prose's sire strikes at a 50% win rate with 1st time starters.

No exacta this time around. If I was going to get beat by a nose I might as well come in last and remove all doubt and "what ifs". Purple Prose ran great. It took the entire field to beat her.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I don't see much anything today, so I will just look at today's two big races:
Both are the local horses.

The Dwyer, Belmont 10: :4: Unstoppable U - I'm willing to give him a pass in his last start. I mean, look at what he was up against if not the distance.

The Shoemaker Mile, Hollywood 9: :1: Dubai XYZ - looks decent and the distance, surface and track are well within his enviromental comfort. High percentage trainer (small sample) along with a 5% rider whose percentage jumps way up when combined with this trainer.

If you like longshots.....
Belmont Race 11: :5: Quick Recovery - looks like he needed his last and drops in class. He does well at Belmont and not so well at other tracks. Just throw out all his dirt races and he has a decent record as a majority of his earnings come over turf. Low percentage trainer with a 27% move on a drop in class and a hot apprentice that can find the board on the bombs he is riding.

Suggest a play across the board in a 1/1/2 or 1/2/4 format. Or include in exotics.

[Solid_Gold]

Blue, I agree with the 2-4-8-ATB method of wagering but rarely use it except on real longshots. However the 5 isn't on my radar but GL.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Things are normal. No hits today. Looks doubtful for my Shoemaker pick....

[lamboguy]

Things are normal. No hits today. Looks doubtful for my Shoemaker pick....don't feel bad, i was getting killed today, i bet the first 2 steeple chases at penn national tonight and cashed!

i know absolutely ZERO about those things too!

[BlueChip@DRF]

don't feel bad, i was getting killed today, i bet the first 2 steeple chases at penn national tonight and cashed!

i know absolutely ZERO about those things too!

Steeplechase at Penn National????

[lamboguy]

Steeplechase at Penn National????they have them there once a year. i only wish that paddy young had held on for the win for hall of famer tommy voss. paddy just came back from a wicked injury.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Look for Five Sixteen to be brought into the steeplechase world.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Just for fun today since I am doing so bad.
No PPs. Just using my own knowledge of the jockeys and trainers.

Belmont Race 2: 50-cent Pick-4
:4::6::7: / :6::7::8::9: / :1::4::11: / :8:

[BlueChip@DRF]

Adding -

Belmont Race 5: 10-cent superfecta
:1::2::8: / :1::2::8: / :1::2::5::7::8::10: / :1::2::5::7::8::10:

[BlueChip@DRF]

And a backup super for funzies: only cost $3.60 :)

Belmont Race 5: 10-cent superfecta
:5: / :2::8::10: / :2::3::7::8::10: / :2::3::7::8::10:

[BlueChip@DRF]

And in the runaway race of the day where the odds are skewed because of people chasing there losses:

My $5 Exacta Box Special: :3::13:


I doubt anything will hit (as usual) but these looked like fun bets today.

Good luck all!

[BlueChip@DRF]

I forgot one:

Belmont, race 4 -
$5 ExBox :3::13:
Cornelio to anchor the bomb and Rosario jumps onto the AE. :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

Okay, this was pure luck today.

[Mr G]

My lucky numbers. It's rare enough that there is a :13: in the race so at least I don't go broke, but since there is no '31', I have to switch them around. My birthday is March 31.

It's just a simple action bet I actively search for at Belmont when in season, Woodbine when in season, and all thoroughbred tracks on the day of my birthday. I play this exbox randomly during the rest of the year if I happen to catch it. It doesn't hit all the time, but it pays nicely when it does.



I'm mostly an ALL player keying on 1 and at times 2 horses...

But like you I also have some numbers I will play from time to time.

I use to listen to 1010WINS NEWS radio station here in NY all the time.....so when I see 10 horses in a race I more then likely will play a 1-10 exacta box and at times will go for a dime super 1-10/1-10/ALL/ALL along with ALL/ALL/1-10/1-10

I do the same thing when there are 11 horses in a race...I use 7-11 as well as 1-10......the reason I use 7-11 is one day many moons ago in the local OTB a friend who was losing bad says outloud... .."Screw this shit, I'm going across the street to 7-11"

So he walks out and I play a 7-11 exacta box in the next race just for the hell of it and it hits and paid over $425..00 ...To this day I still play those silly numbers but fun when they do hit.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I'm mostly an ALL player keying on 1 and at times 2 horses...

But like you I also have some numbers I will play from time to time.

I use to listen to 1010WINS NEWS radio station here in NY all the time.....so when I see 10 horses in a race I more then likely will play a 1-10 exacta box and at times will go for a dime super 1-10/1-10/ALL/ALL along with ALL/ALL/1-10/1-10

I do the same thing when there are 11 horses in a race...I use 7-11 as well as 1-10......the reason I use 7-11 is one day many moons ago in the local OTB a friend who was losing bad says outloud... .."Screw this shit, I'm going across the street to 7-11"

So he walks out and I play a 7-11 exacta box in the next race just for the hell of it and it hits and paid over $425..00 ...To this day I still play those silly numbers but fun when they do hit.

That's a funny story! :lol:
But I never thought about doing /ALL. I mean, there is a 10-cent super at Belmont. I might try that. Thanx. :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

Poorly picked Parx 0.50 cent Pick-3 starting with Race 8:
:1::2::6: / :1::4::9: / :2::5::6:

Good luck all! :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

Poorly picked Parx 0.50 cent Pick-3 starting with Race 8:
:1::2::6: / :1::4::9: / :2::5::6:

Good luck all! :)

:2: is scratched from Race 8. Replacing with :7:

[BlueChip@DRF]

Looks like back to normal. No hits.

[Mr G]

I was looking at results from Belmont from the last few days and saw the 1 and 10 and 7 and 11 all come in top 4 positions....:) I wasn't around to bet it funny how those numbers at times can produce some money from just playing around.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I was looking at results from Belmont from the last few days and saw the 1 and 10 and 7 and 11 all come in top 4 positions....:) I wasn't around to bet it funny how those numbers at times can produce some money from just playing around.


Son of a ...... :mad:

[BlueChip@DRF]

7/8/2012

BELMONT

Race 2:
10-cent supers
:1::5: / :1::5: / all / all
:1::5: /all / :1::5: / all

50-cent Pick-4
:1: / :2::3::5::6: / :5::7::8: / :1::6::13:

:1: Sly Warrior - Dutrow is 41% with 2nd time starters and 30% overall when Ramon is up. The winner in her debut repeated next race and the 3rd place finisher also broke her maiden next start.
:5: Passeporta - Looks like she doesn't like turf, but she did run with the crowd in the first half of her debut. She was off for 2 months and has been working up to this race. I will take that turf start as a public workout. She drops in first time for tag today and picks up Junior Alvarado.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Race 9:
10-cent supers
:4::5: / :4::5: / all / all
:4::5: / all / :4::5: / all

:4: Fontley (GB)
:5: Wallis (GB)
An uncoupled couple of Clement imported trainees. Fontley won her states debut with a bold, although perfect, rail trip. If Wallis can relax and rate she should have some kick in the end when the real running begins. If she's too headstrong, it may compromise her chances. She does her best running when coming from off the pace.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keeping it tight today.

Delaware Park

Race 4: :2: 5W + 15P
He was a beaten favorite last race. Has a top rider on turf (18%). He is 7-4-3-0 since being claimed by new connections. And his sire is 16% turf winners. But because of the scratches, his 6/1 odds is now the lowest of the ML. I really was hoping to get above 4/1.


Race 7:
My original play was :9::11:/:9::11:/ALL/ALL and :9::11:/ALL/:9::11:/ALL, but :11: was scratched. So I substituted :1: in place of :11:.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keeping it tight today.

Delaware Park

Race 4: :2: 5W + 15P
He was a beaten favorite last race. Has a top rider on turf (18%). He is 7-4-3-0 since being claimed by new connections. And his sire is 16% turf winners. But because of the scratches, his 6/1 odds is now the lowest of the ML. I really was hoping to get above 4/1.

Won at 4/5. Whoopee.....



Race 7:
My original play was :9::11:/:9::11:/ALL/ALL and :9::11:/ALL/:9::11:/ALL, but :11: was scratched. So I substituted :1: in place of :11:.


I think it might have been a nice little score if the :1: could have gotten by that pair dueling for 2nd. :mad:

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keeping it real tight today. I know Tuesday is garbage day, but what the hey.
One race, one horse.

Parx, race 9:
$5 Win + $15 Place on :6: Don'tgetsuspicious
From a high percentage trainer (27% sprint and overall).
Trainer/Jockey combo score at 29% overall 2011-12.
Could get overlooked because he is 4-0-0-1 on turf, but the trainer is 80% with a synthetic-to-turf move, albeit a small sample.

So, as you can see, here is your losing play of the day. :)

Carmouche! Carmouche! Can you do the fan-dan-go?.....

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keeping it real tight today. I know Tuesday is garbage day, but what the hey.
One race, one horse.

Parx, race 9:
$5 Win + $15 Place on :6: Don'tgetsuspicious
From a high percentage trainer (27% sprint and overall).
Trainer/Jockey combo score at 29% overall 2011-12.
Could get overlooked because he is 4-0-0-1 on turf, but the trainer is 80% with a synthetic-to-turf move, albeit a small sample.

So, as you can see, here is your losing play of the day. :)

Carmouche! Carmouche! Can you do the fan-dan-go?.....

Another order of confetti coming right up! :bang:

[BlueChip@DRF]

July 15th
BELMONT
Late start for me. Tough card. I was going to play the 3rd race but they had no 10-cent super. I would have lost anyway.

Race 8:
I will just play two 10-cent supers
:1::8: / :1::8: / ALL / ALL
:1::8: / ALL / :1::8: / ALL

Usually in the 5th or 6th race at Belmont a bomb comes in.
:1: Johnny Beautiful - Wilmer Garcia has won with this trainer before at this level.
:8: D'Dominator - trainer is 45% with horses coming back from a 60-180 rest.

Still kind of hesitant, though, as turf races at Belmont tend to be won by the top veteran/local riders. But hey - NO GUTS, NO GLORY!

And my automatic play -
Woodbine Race 10: $5 Exacta Box 3 / 13

Good luck all and have an exciting (if not winning) day! :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

Another whiff... All is normal. :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

Just a Best Bet at Presque Isle Downs today:
Race 3: #2 - Captain Genius


Good luck all! :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

Longshot Special for Mountaineer 7/17:
Race 8: #9 I Star (20-1)
I love 2nd time starters in Maiden (non-claiming) races. This one is coming off a layoff and is getting Lasix for the first time. To me the layoff signals that the connections are trying to win with this horse but not at the expense of losing him as he could have easily been put into a maiden claimer much earlier. Let's see if patience has paid off.

[Solid_Gold]

GL Bluechip, but you could be Dan Illman's twin!

[BlueChip@DRF]

GL Bluechip, but you could be Dan Illman's twin!

I'll be known as the fat ugly one.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Longshot Special for Mountaineer 7/17:
Race 8: #9 I Star (20-1)
I love 2nd time starters in Maiden (non-claiming) races. This one is coming off a layoff and is getting Lasix for the first time. To me the layoff signals that the connections are trying to win with this horse but not at the expense of losing him as he could have easily been put into a maiden claimer much earlier. Let's see if patience has paid off.

I guess it didn't payoff and I guess that's why they call it a longshot. :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

July 20th
Going to give Saratoga a shot.

Race 1: :8: Writingonthewall (turf only)
Hot rider has been on for the last two starts and may have the timing perfected for this local horse (5-4-0-0 on the Saratoga turf). :4: Yankee Fourtune and :6: Salto are the short odds that worry me.
The Play(s) -
$20 Win on :8:
$10 Exacta: :4::6: over :8:

Race 10: :12: Tough All Day (turf only)
This Stormy Atlantic colt has been the only horse in the field based at Saratoga (since April) and has had 3 workouts (two of them bullets on the green) since his dirt debut on June 23rd at Monmouth Park. This 2nd time starter for Zito (21% with shippers) is dropping in first time for tag.
The Play -
$20 Win on :12:

If you want to lose, play my picks. :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

Saratoga, Race 1: Dang. :8: Looks really lethargic in the post parade. Something doesn't seem right with that one....

[BlueChip@DRF]

Saratoga is a tough track. At least for me it is. I will keep things simple for Sunday, July 22nd until things have stablized.

Race 5: :2::11::12: - all three 1st time for tag. One chalk :11: and two bombs.

$1 Exacta Box
$1 Trifecta Box

Good luck all! :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

Okay. Saratoga is just not my track. :(

[BlueChip@DRF]

Tuesday, July 24th

Tuesdays are usually bush-track days. Days where handicapping is turned upside down. I will take a $20 Win bet shot at Fairmount, Race 6: :3: - a thought I have had many times in my old age. And that is today's handicapping angle. :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

Tuesday, July 24th

Tuesdays are usually bush-track days. Days where handicapping is turned upside down. I will take a $20 Win bet shot at Fairmount, Race 6: :3: - a thought I have had many times in my old age. And that is today's handicapping angle. :)

Hey!

[Cincyman80]

Tuesday, July 24th

Tuesdays are usually bush-track days. Days where handicapping is turned upside down. I will take a $20 Win bet shot at Fairmount, Race 6: :3: - a thought I have had many times in my old age. And that is today's handicapping angle. :)

Nice pick!!!!

[BlueChip@DRF]

Nice pick!!!!

Thanks. I just went by the name. But it was also the fact that the top rider was on him at 6-1. I figured I would take a shot because I couldn't be doing any worse.

[Mr G]

Tuesday, July 24th

Tuesdays are usually bush-track days. Days where handicapping is turned upside down. I will take a $20 Win bet shot at Fairmount, Race 6: :3: - a thought I have had many times in my old age. And that is today's handicapping angle. :)

$24.40 to WIN...

You the man!

Congrats!!

[BlueChip@DRF]

For Thursday, July 26th

I know lightning doesn't strike twice. I will take a $20 Win shot this time on the west coast.

Del Mar, Race 7: Going to try to beat the Baffert horses with :7: since this is an expensive claiming race rather than a stakes race. And he's seems to be taking a liking to the synth since last year. Maybe his knees can't take the pressure from firm turf or a hard dirt track.

If you are looking for a loser, you came to the right place. :)

[Cincyman80]

For Thursday, July 26th...

If you are looking for a loser, you came to the right place. :)

I'm always looking for a good loser. But you better not let me down I don't want to be cashing a winner today! :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

For Thursday, July 26th

I know lightning doesn't strike twice. I will take a $20 Win shot this time on the west coast.

Del Mar, Race 7: Going to try to beat the Baffert horses with :7: since this is an expensive claiming race rather than a stakes race. And he's seems to be taking a liking to the synth since last year. Maybe his knees can't take the pressure from firm turf or a hard dirt track.

If you are looking for a loser, you came to the right place. :)


:7: was just outclassed today. He looked like a winner at the top of the lane. Sorry about that.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Saturday, July 28th

Just a 50-cent Pick-4 for today.

Race 8: :2::4::7::9::10::11::12:
Race 9: :2::3::4:
Race 10: :2::3::4:
Race 11: :7:

Now you know which ones to throw out. :)

2148

[BlueChip@DRF]

Saturday, July 28th

Just a 50-cent Pick-4 for today.

Race 8: :2::4::7::9::10::11::12:
Race 9: :2::3::4:
Race 10: :2::3::4:
Race 11: :7:

Now you know which ones to throw out. :)

2148

And Saratoga is STILL not my track. Let's move on.....

Sunday, July 29th

The Haskell

Gemologist and Paynter look formidable. Still, they might run each other into the ground if they are headstrong, especially if Handsome Mike gets into the fray. So today I will be going with :1: - Nonios. He has won a G3 and was barely beaten in the G2 Swaps. He has never lost ground in any of his races, always gaining even when it was too late. Can't say the same for the other contenders.

$20 to Win

[BlueChip@DRF]

And Saratoga is STILL not my track. Let's move on.....

Sunday, July 29th

The Haskell

Gemologist and Paynter look formidable. Still, they might run each other into the ground if they are headstrong, especially if Handsome Mike gets into the fray. So today I will be going with :1: - Nonios. He has won a G3 and was barely beaten in the G2 Swaps. He has never lost ground in any of his races, always gaining even when it was too late. Can't say the same for the other contenders.

$20 to Win


And a bridesmaid again.... :mad:

I guess I am a glutton for punishment because.....

Monday, July 30th

Saratoga, Race 5: :4: Jane Of All Trades
I like Dominguez. I like McLaughlin. I like 2nd time starters in non-maiden claiming races. And she has the fastest speed figure of the rest. If she improves by 5-7 lengths she should graduate.

2283

[BlueChip@DRF]

And a bridesmaid again.... :mad:

I guess I am a glutton for punishment because.....

Monday, July 30th

Saratoga, Race 5: :4: Jane Of All Trades
I like Dominguez. I like McLaughlin. I like 2nd time starters in non-maiden claiming races. And she has the fastest speed figure of the rest. If she improves by 5-7 lengths she should graduate.

2283


Third. Tird. Turd. Same thing. I gotta stop this masochism.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Wednesday, August 30th

I know I shouldn't, but I've been waiting for a play like this.....

Saratoga, Race 8: :4:
Rrrrrrrrrrrrramon on a bomb (12-1) trained by no other than giant killer H Allen Jerkens. And this, graded or not, is a stakes race. Yeah, break me off a piece of that.

The usual (Hamilton x2) FTW! bet. :)

Good luck all!


2416

[BlueChip@DRF]

Bombed again. All is still normal. :bang:

[BlueChip@DRF]

And I'm back for more punishment....

Friday, August 3rd
Saratoga, Race 3: :4:

[BlueChip@DRF]

I give up on Saratoga. It's eating me up alive.

August 10th
Woodbine, Race 5: :10:
I will give my analysis later.

[BlueChip@DRF]

It's been a while since I have given up on Saratoga, but I did find something I like.

Saratoga Race 10 - The Woodward-G1

:7: Cease
He is 4-for-4 at distance on dirt (3 of those wins at Saratoga), 5-for-7 at the distance on all surfaces. The only two times he did not win at this distance was on the Keeneland artificial surface. Rosario is 36% riding for Stall. With a ML of 10-1 I think he is worth taking a stab at.