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View Full Version : Belmont Picks: Sat., June 23


Teach
06-23-2012, 11:34 AM
Belmont Park: Saturday, June 23



I want to offer my best wishes to future Hall-of-Famer, John Velazquez, for a speedy recovery.



Race One:

Heavy rains inundated Belmont Park both yesterday afternoon and over night. The track has been sealed and is listed as muddy. In the opener, I like :7: Won Fast Bullet. He’s an intriguing play. I mean, to begin with: “Why is this horse being entered in this company?” Frankly, it bewilders me. I don’t think this horse has ever been in this cheap. I glimed this horse’s last two races. In his last, a seven-furlong sprint on the turf, the horse hardly raised a gallop. He was behind a wall of horses at the top of the stretch. If I didn’t know better, I would thought he was part of a police escort. Two races back, he was ambitiously entered in top-flight allowance company. Although he was well bet (I believe he went off as the second choice), he finished fifth in the seven-horse field. The replay indicated that he was never a threat. But here, in this company ona wet surface, this Rrramon Dominguez-ridden, Rick Dutrow-trained 5-year-old Unbridled-bred gelding looks like the horse to beat. #1 Fulton Street ain’t no “Fish Market”! I mean this Dixieland Band-bred colt is another horse who has a good chance of hitting the tote. The horse has hit the board in half of his 12 lifetime tries. He has a third in three tries at this six-and-one-half furlongs distance. In his current sharp form, he can be part off your exotic wagering picture. Two other horses that I believe have a chance are; #4 More Than a Reason (he’s hit the tote on “off” tracks in 15 races out of 20 starts) and #6 Star Dance MD (the horse has faced better; he’s hit the tote in his last two).


Race Two:


Now that the race is off the turf I’m going with the Mark Hennig-trainee, :5: Joya Reel (her name sounds like a brand of halva). Prior to this weather-related turn of events I had dismissed her chances, but now, under these conditions, she’s viable. In her two wet-track appearances she has finished second twice. Maybe, the third time will prove a charm. The Unbridled-bred filly looks like she can get the distance. The al rojo vivo Javier Castellano is in the irons. The MTO, #2X Party Of Interest is a factor here. This is Bernardini-bred filly finished second in her only “wet-track” appearance. #3 Special Guest is another filly who shows she can handle the wet track. In her most recent race, she finished second in maiden special weights company. Rajiv Maragh rides for Angel Penna, Jr.



 



 



Race Three:


In this very tough-to-handicap race with a slew of fillies with both assets and liabilities (this ain’t no probate matter). I like :5: Flea Flicker. I must admit I’m an aficionado of the turf-to-dirt angle. This Dixieland Band-bred filly tried the lawn in her last start and finished last. Well, she’s now back on the dirt, albeit wet, surface where she won two starts back in a gate-to-wire maiden-breaking effort, albeit by a nose She will have to get that extra half-furlong. That might be an issue, however, if the “Panamanian Phenom,” Eddie Castro, can ration out this filly’s speed, she can be right there. The 3-year-old fired a “bullet” at Monmouth last week; she “drilled” three furlongs in :35, handily. How ‘bout the #7 Silver Over Gold? She is certainly a factor here. The filly has recently jumped from the 15K claiming ranks to allowance company. Yet, in her two allowance starts, this Mr. Prospector-bred filly has competed ably; she finished fourth and then second. Her connections now make a jockey switch to Ariel Smith. The horse has hit the board in ten out of 18 lifetime tries; she has a win and a second at the six and one-half furlong distance. She had a most acceptable recent work; she breezed four furlongs in :48.3. Another horse to keep an eye on is Then, there’s #4 Lender’s Way.Shehas been running in stakes and allowance company; yet, she hasn’t recorded a win since last October’s maiden-breaking effort at Belmont. However, this Dixieland Band-bred filly has been a consistent sort; she’s hit the tote in eight of eleven lifetime starts. She’s certainly a factor in your gimmicks and exotics. I also believe #1 Wedding In Sorano has hit the tote in both her “off” tries. This Mr Prospector-bred filly has hit the board in all eight of her pari-mutual starts. She’s most capable of being a factor here. Javier Castellano rides for trainer Colum O’Brien.



Race Four:

I like :1a: Tahitian Warrior. He was part of an entry in the prestigious Grade 1 Carter Handicap at Aqueduct this past April. The horse tired and finished up the track. Yet, he now drops into this optional claiming company. He’s in with the kind he most certainly can compete. Cornelio Velasquez rides for trainer Tom Albertrani. #4 Flat Bold isanother horse to consider in this short-field optional claimer. The A.P. Indy-bred gelding also came out of the spill-marred Decathlon at Monmouth. This horse came away unscathed as he was among the front runners. The horse finished second in that one; he was run down in the final furlong by the eventual winner, Ponzi Scheme. Yet here, I believe he has a distinct chance of being right there at the wire. He’s hit the tote in seven of 11 tries at the six-furlong distance. Ramon Dominguez is in the irons for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. One last horse you might want to look at is #5 W.W.’s Lady’s Man. This Wild-Again- (talk about wet-surface pedigree) bred has hit the tote in nine of 11 “off” tries. That kind of record can not go unnoticed. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides for trainer Ed Barker.


 



Race Five:


In this of-the-turf marathon, I‘m going with :4: Imaspeedyguy. This El Prado-bred gelding finished fourth in his last turf race. Yet, I believe his pedigree indicates he can also compete on an “off” surface. He looks like the horse who should be closing fastest of all in the stretch. Cornelio Velasquez rides for trainer Patrick Kelly. I also like #5 Mike And Rob. I liked him on the turf; I also think he can do well on a dirt surface. Eddie Castro in the irons for trainer George Weaver. This Seeking The Gold-bred three-year old gelding was second in mile and an-eighth maiden company in his last. In his only dirt race, the gelding finished fourth. I see #1 Mad Bomber as a factor here. The Cryptoclearance-bred gelding finished third in his only “off” track appearance last November. He looks like he can handle the wet surface. Can he get the distance? Another horse to consider is #2 Knock Quietly. Hefinished third in his last: a turf-route race. Although he’s winless in 22 lifetime starts, this horse may well benefit from the added distance. David Cohen rides for the owner-trainer, Scott Schwartz.



Race Six:




:6: The Great Bandini

looks the “the logical” in this off-the-turf dirt sprint. I liked this horse on the turf; I still like him off the turf. He looks like he has the early speed to take command. He also has solid “off” pedigree. Eddie Castro is in the irons for trainer Ed Allard. #7 Karma Shield is certainly a factor in this claiming sprint, as well. Rosie Napravnik rides this Seeking The Gold-bred colt for trainer Ken McPeek. The colt is now cutting back; that may put him right in the thick of things. I’m going to take a stab with the first-time starter, #12 The Mixer. The three-year old colt’s got solid “off” breeding, especially on his sire’s side. Junior Alvarado rides for owner-trainer Joe Orseno.



Race Seven:




:9: Shrewd One is a horse who moves up on a wet surface. I think he may be able to take this. His outside post should help him stalk the leaders. Don‘t be surprised to see this Smarty Jones-bred horse moving fastest of all in the stretch. Edgar Prado rides for trainer Phil Serpe. #5 Sailmate would appear to be a main contender. The A.P. Indy-bred colt has won three of his six lifetime tries. He’s hit the tote of five of those six efforts. He’s one-for-one at the seven furlongs distance. David Cohen rides for the red-hot John Kimmel. #2 How Do I Win has faced better. He was third in the Grade 3 Bayshore. The Pulpit-bred gelding has one win in two tries on an “off“ track. Javier Castellano rides for Todd Pletcher. #1A Shankopotamus moves up on a wet surface. He has a first and a third in two “wet-surface tries. His last win was a gate-to-wire job last fall at Belmont. Rajiv Maragh rides for trainer John Terranova.



 



Race Eight:




My choice here is :13: Blind Hope. He draws in as an MTO. Jose Lezcano rides this Carson City-bred gelding for Jason Servis. The gelding has hit the tote in both his “off” tries. #10 Punster is another horse who should benefit from an “off” track. This Forty Niner-bred gelding has hit the board in every wet-track try. Rajiv Maragh rides for trainer George Weaver. #7 Lindell A.C. is another horse who will benefit from the switch to the dirt surface. This Carson City-bred gelding could complete an exotic. Junior Alvarado rides for trainer Richard Schosberg. Finally, #9 Coronation Day has one third-place finish on a wet surface. He might just be able to complete an exotic. Eddie Castro rides for trainer George Weaver.



Race Nine:



:7: More Zen Tea



broke his maiden about a month ago in a special weights race. He‘s now entered in allowance company; his connections obviously believe this Storm Cat-bred gelding can make it two in a row. I might mention that he did win his last handily. Can he repeat? I think he has a good chance. Junior Alvarado reprises his ride for top-notch trainer Seth Benzel. #10 Unbridled Command can certainly be a factor here in this turf-route state-bred allowance. The A.P. Indy-bred colt has graced the tote in all four of his turf races. He’s had two third-place finishes in this company in recent efforts. He has gone off the chalk in his last three. Jockey Julien Leparoux rides for trainer Thomas Bush. #8 Stephen’s Revenge has won a majority of his turf tries. This well-bred-for-the-turf gelding has been away from the races for about 50 days; however, his fine turf pedigree and a steady morning work-tab signals that this horse might just be ready to be part of the equation. It’s Edgar Prado for trainer Barclay Tagg. If #13 Atitlan draws in,, the Gulch-bred geldsing could be a factor here. He’s finished second in his last three efforts; he’s hit the board in four of nine turf tries. Jose Espinoza rides for trainer Patrick Quick.



Race Ten:




In this the 56th running of the Grade 1 Mother Goose Stakes (the race was named for H. P. Whitney’s filly, Mother Goose), I like :2: Contested. This Awesome Again-bred filly has reeled off four straight victories, including a recent win in the Grade 1 Acorn at Belmont Park on May 28. Two caveat: (1) The filly will be asked to get another sixteenth of a mile, but that doesn’t appear to pose a problem. (2) I wouldn’t expect much value in a straight win bet, but part of a pick-race or exotics Javier Castellano reprises his Acorn-winning effort for trainer Bob Baffert. #1 Believe You Can won the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs in early May. Prior to that, this Gone West-bred filly won the Fairgrounds Oaks. The filly has two wins in three tries at this one mile and one-sixteenth distance. Rosie Napravnik - she’s ridden this horse to three wins in her last four starts - is once again in the irons for trainer larry Jones. One note of caution: the filly’s been off four about 50 days; yet, her morning work-tab says she’s ready. #4 Wildcat‘s Smile moves up on a wet track. The Storm Cat-bred filly has a win and a second in two “off“ tries. She was third in the Black-Eyed Susan at Pimlico over a month ago. Her most recent work tab was an impressive :59.3 breezing for five furlongs. Speaking of impressive, #5 Zo Impressive was second to Contested in the Acorn. This Danzig-bred grey filly has hit the tote in all four of her pari-mutual starts. She has two wins and two seconds. It appears doubtful that the filly can earn top honors here; yet she’s most capable of completing an exotic. Rajiv Maragh rides for Tom Albertrani.



Race Eleven:




:14: See Me Proud has faced much better in recent efforts; yet, he’s had very little to show for those tries. He now slips in for a claiming tag. It was this same kind of condition that presented the horse with the opportunity for his only win. Junior Alvarado remains in the irons for Hall of Fame trainer, Bill Mott. #4 Rally Point is another horse who has a chance of garnering all the enchiladas. This Gulch-bred colt is winless in two tries on the lawn; yet in both cases the horse was either bothered or bumped at the start. It’s worth mentioning in both those aforementioned efforts that the horse was gaining ground in the stretch. A cleaner trip would all that appears necessary for this colt to be factor here. Javier Castellano rides for trainer Ken McPeek. Then, there’s #3 Springcourt. This Forty Niner-bred gelding finished second in his last turf try. Although he has only one tote-hitting performance in five turf tries, the colt is certainly most capable of completing a gimmick. David Cohen rides for David Jacobson. Finally, #8 Cat Sweep has a chance of completing your exotic. This well-named four-year old Storm Cat-bred gelding was third in his last at this distance. The horse has hit the tote in six of 19 lifetime starts; he’s the kind of horse who just might complete a dime-super. Rosie Napravnik rides for John Terranova.