Fav % of Wins for 2011

[JJMartin]

Can someone post the figures that would constitute the percentage of wins for the favorite at all major tracks (and minor if possible) for 2011 please? I am actually interested in seeing where the fav wins the least.

[jerry-g]

For me, I don't have access to a database so I rely on the folks at BRISS.
False favorites win the least of all favorites. Briss has a nice article Number
30 that explains it all. They claim if you bet on favorites, you'll loose in
the long run. Here is the link to the letter.

False Favorites (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=jul03brs&header=off)

[rastajenk]

If a false favorite wins, does it get to drop the "false" label?

[jerry-g]

If a false favorite wins, does it get to drop the "false" label?

Absolutely! It means you made a mistake making him a false favorite.

[Charli125]

Can someone post the figures that would constitute the percentage of wins for the favorite at all major tracks (and minor if possible) for 2011 please? I am actually interested in seeing where the fav wins the least.

Here's what I have for 2011 in my database. I think it has everything, but I haven't checked to make sure I've built all months.

Total 2011
Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 86462.10 90714.30 91496.70
Bet -102494.00-102494.00-102494.00
Gain -16031.90 -11779.70 -10997.30

Wins 18877 29586 35905
Plays 51247 51247 51247
PCT .3684 .5773 .7006

ROI 0.8436 0.8851 0.8927
Avg Mut 4.58 3.07 2.55

2011 by Track
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
TRACK PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
************************************************** **************************************
ABT 6 2 0.3333 0.9048 0.6917 3 0.5 0.7
ALB 316 102 0.3228 0.8763 0.668 170 0.538 0.822
APX 852 273 0.3204 0.8698 0.7984 443 0.52 0.8461
AQU 1013 427 0.4215 1.1443 0.9125 619 0.6111 0.8822
ARP 237 87 0.3671 0.9966 0.8329 132 0.557 0.8895
ASD 480 161 0.3354 0.9105 0.7761 264 0.55 0.8628
ATL 40 10 0.25 0.6787 0.61 15 0.375 0.6375
ATO 2 2 1 2.7148 2.05 2 1 1.15
BCF 27 13 0.4815 1.3072 1.0481 18 0.6667 1.0519
BEL 886 317 0.3578 0.9714 0.8568 498 0.5621 0.8673
BEU 1029 398 0.3868 1.0501 0.8478 617 0.5996 0.8738
BKF 6 3 0.5 1.3574 0.9167 5 0.8333 0.9667
BOI 83 35 0.4217 1.1448 0.9735 44 0.5301 0.7964
CAS 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CBY 436 179 0.4106 1.1147 0.9427 273 0.6261 0.9415
CDX 658 216 0.3283 0.8913 0.8237 357 0.5426 0.8748
CLS 194 76 0.3918 1.0637 0.9451 119 0.6134 0.9845
CNL 323 122 0.3777 1.0254 0.9017 183 0.5666 0.8822
CPW 49 16 0.3265 0.8864 0.7102 28 0.5714 0.8847
CRC 1491 532 0.3568 0.9686 0.7937 859 0.5761 0.8457
CTX 2158 802 0.3716 1.0088 0.8399 1226 0.5681 0.8722
DED 1033 343 0.332 0.9013 0.7967 536 0.5189 0.8471
DEL 934 317 0.3394 0.9214 0.7603 517 0.5535 0.8344
DMR 328 103 0.314 0.8524 0.8451 168 0.5122 0.8934
ELK 28 14 0.5 1.3574 1.0714 21 0.75 1.0411
ELP 286 104 0.3636 0.9871 0.8818 165 0.5769 0.8993
EMD 718 266 0.3705 1.0058 0.8056 433 0.6031 0.8851
EMT 3 0 0 0 0 1 0.3333 0.3667
EVD 928 330 0.3556 0.9654 0.8879 506 0.5453 0.8862
FER 38 19 0.5 1.3574 0.9895 27 0.7105 0.9671
FEX 654 234 0.3578 0.9714 0.8349 377 0.5765 0.9038
FGX 887 313 0.3529 0.958 0.8259 492 0.5547 0.841
FLX 1505 635 0.4219 1.1454 0.8725 967 0.6425 0.917
FMT 167 55 0.3293 0.894 0.7389 93 0.5569 0.8512
FNO 74 30 0.4054 1.1006 0.8797 44 0.5946 0.8507
FON 293 106 0.3618 0.9822 0.9198 160 0.5461 0.9423
FPK 520 174 0.3346 0.9084 0.8038 282 0.5423 0.9014
FPX 133 49 0.3684 1.0001 0.7571 84 0.6316 0.8752
FTP 24 7 0.2917 0.7919 0.625 16 0.6667 1.1354
GGX 1398 527 0.377 1.0235 0.8523 854 0.6109 0.916
GIL 22 10 0.4545 1.2339 1.2591 13 0.5909 1.2227
GPR 91 37 0.4066 1.1038 0.9192 51 0.5604 0.906
GPX 1007 343 0.3406 0.9247 0.8478 559 0.5551 0.8975
GRP 73 31 0.4247 1.153 0.9767 50 0.6849 1.0281
HAW 999 349 0.3493 0.9483 0.8387 551 0.5516 0.8719
HOL 711 265 0.3727 1.0118 0.8906 414 0.5823 0.8902
HOO 584 218 0.3733 1.0134 0.8247 343 0.5873 0.8731
HOU 261 98 0.3755 1.0194 0.8073 148 0.567 0.8412
HPO 20 10 0.5 1.3574 1.335 13 0.65 1.22
HST 556 218 0.3921 1.0645 0.9182 350 0.6295 0.9495
IND 584 226 0.387 1.0506 0.8626 363 0.6216 0.9322
JRM 2 2 1 2.7148 1.7 2 1 1.225
KDX 32 15 0.4688 1.2727 1.1 20 0.625 1.0063
KEE 309 102 0.3301 0.8962 0.8874 152 0.4919 0.856
KIN 10 3 0.3 0.8144 0.695 4 0.4 0.625
KSP 22 9 0.4091 1.1106 0.8636 15 0.6818 1.0568
LAD 798 271 0.3396 0.9219 0.8104 429 0.5376 0.8454
LAX 468 177 0.3782 1.0267 0.7887 287 0.6132 0.8873
LBG 137 53 0.3869 1.0504 0.9584 78 0.5693 1.0288
LNN 297 101 0.3401 0.9233 0.8657 161 0.5421 0.9158
LRL 1085 427 0.3935 1.0683 0.8512 666 0.6138 0.8865
LSX 488 191 0.3914 1.0626 0.8701 307 0.6291 0.9336
MCX 3 0 0 0 0 2 0.6667 1.1
MDX 236 73 0.3093 0.8397 0.8725 117 0.4958 0.8712
MIL 5 1 0.2 0.543 0.65 2 0.4 0.66
MNR 2058 820 0.3984 1.0816 0.8637 1239 0.602 0.9118
MPM 238 62 0.2605 0.7072 0.6508 110 0.4622 0.975
MTH 889 327 0.3678 0.9985 0.8556 504 0.5669 0.8673
NPX 731 255 0.3488 0.9469 0.866 430 0.5882 0.9679
OPX 517 159 0.3075 0.8348 0.8044 249 0.4816 0.8418
PEN 1827 687 0.376 1.0208 0.8488 1032 0.5649 0.8608
PHA 1917 742 0.3871 1.0509 0.8551 1160 0.6051 0.8869
PID 823 271 0.3293 0.894 0.8078 438 0.5322 0.8558
PIM 315 123 0.3905 1.0601 0.8825 196 0.6222 0.9267
PLN 95 33 0.3474 0.9431 0.7526 56 0.5895 0.8658
PMX 562 223 0.3968 1.0772 0.8311 346 0.6157 0.8617
POD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRM 671 284 0.4232 1.1489 0.9055 412 0.614 0.9237
PRV 24 10 0.4167 1.1313 1.0583 19 0.7917 1.3208
RDX 655 256 0.3908 1.0609 0.8392 413 0.6305 0.9155
RET 246 93 0.378 1.0262 0.8565 147 0.5976 0.9715
RIL 56 14 0.25 0.6787 0.6036 30 0.5357 0.9411
RPX 630 229 0.3635 0.9868 0.8525 349 0.554 0.8756
RUI 271 111 0.4096 1.112 0.8753 169 0.6236 0.8993
RUP 4 1 0.25 0.6787 0.6 3 0.75 0.7875
SAC 63 15 0.2381 0.6464 0.527 35 0.5556 0.8389
SAR 399 135 0.3383 0.9184 0.887 203 0.5088 0.859
SAX 827 305 0.3688 1.0012 0.8707 469 0.5671 0.8816
SDY 12 5 0.4167 1.1313 0.6417 8 0.6667 0.9083
SND 7 1 0.1429 0.3879 0.3286 4 0.5714 0.7429
SON 8 6 0.75 2.0361 1.75 6 0.75 1.2375
SRP 307 106 0.3453 0.9374 0.7915 175 0.57 0.8842
SRX 115 45 0.3913 1.0623 0.893 71 0.6174 0.9348
STK 26 10 0.3846 1.0441 0.85 15 0.5769 0.8481
SUD 30 11 0.3667 0.9955 0.8767 19 0.6333 1.0633
SUF 751 294 0.3915 1.0628 0.8197 465 0.6192 0.8854
SUN 534 194 0.3633 0.9863 0.8347 282 0.5281 0.8359
SWF 2 1 0.5 1.3574 0.9 1 0.5 0.525
TAM 1006 349 0.3469 0.9418 0.8482 560 0.5567 0.9159
TDN 1017 454 0.4464 1.2119 0.9052 677 0.6657 0.9113
TIL 28 10 0.3571 0.9694 0.6464 18 0.6429 0.8768
TIM 59 29 0.4915 1.3343 1.0017 43 0.7288 1.0153
TPX 886 306 0.3454 0.9377 0.8536 487 0.5497 0.8814
TUP 1315 477 0.3627 0.9847 0.7777 777 0.5909 0.8476
UNX 19 9 0.4737 1.286 0.9053 16 0.8421 1.1421
WOX 1557 528 0.3391 0.9206 0.8463 835 0.5363 0.8671
WRD 329 118 0.3587 0.9738 0.8368 177 0.538 0.8356
YDX 49 21 0.4286 1.1636 1.1959 33 0.6735 1.1612
ZIA 332 119 0.3584 0.973 0.7696 193 0.5813 0.8514

[JJMartin]

Thanks Charli :)

[Solid_Gold]

The average for years and years in N. America is 1/3 of all favorites win. The 2nd choice wins about 17% of the the time so I would guess about half of all races offer little or no value. So IMO, a 2-1 or 5-2 wins about half the races run in N.A.

[TrifectaMike]

The average for years and years in N. America is 1/3 of all favorites win. The 2nd choice wins about 17% of the the time so I would guess about half of all races offer little or no value. So IMO, a 2-1 or 5-2 wins about half the races run in N.A.

In every race we designate a horse as a favorite. I have yet to see any proof that a horse that is classified as a favorite excludes it from offering value.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[Solid_Gold]

In every race we designate a horse as a favorite. I have yet to see any proof that a horse that is classified as a favorite excludes it from offering value.

Mike (Dr Beav)

See Charli125's data above. $4.58 to win isn't my cup of tea! However, I do realize that value could be present itself in horizontal or vertical wagers if you get something longer to go with the chalk. The chalk alone is a pass for me.

[tbwinner]

See Charli125's data above. $4.58 to win isn't my cup of tea! However, I do realize that value could be present itself in horizontal or vertical wagers if you get something longer to go with the chalk. The chalk alone is a pass for me.

I understand thinking like this but always wondered why JUST because a horse is the favorite one passes a race OR, worse in my opinion, finds another to try and beat it, no matter the odds of said favorite. One not necessarily make a line but if you have minimum odds criteria of say even money or you perceive the value on that specific horse is 1-1, which is a single horse you like and he is the 5-2 favorite would you still pass it?

I know everyone is different but never understood the thinking of dismissing ALL favorites.

[Robert Goren]

If I could have got 1/2 on Rachel Alexander in the 2009 Mother Goose, I'd bet every penny I could beg, borrow or steal. Everything is always relative including betting on favorites.

[Solid_Gold]

I understand thinking like this but always wondered why JUST because a horse is the favorite one passes a race OR, worse in my opinion, finds another to try and beat it, no matter the odds of said favorite. One not necessarily make a line but if you have minimum odds criteria of say even money or you perceive the value on that specific horse is 1-1, which is a single horse you like and he is the 5-2 favorite would you still pass it?

I know everyone is different but never understood the thinking of dismissing ALL favorites.

If I picked a fav. that was paying very little I said I would pass on a win bet on said steed. However if value was there in exotics I could play it on top. But never bet to win at less than 4-1 but that is just me. I do not want to need 50% winners to make a profit.

[Solid_Gold]

If I could have got 1/2 on Rachel Alexander in the 2009 Mother Goose, I'd bet every penny I could beg, borrow or steal. Everything is always relative including betting on favorites.

But then again if another 1/2 in another race and hit 50% winners, you would lose money. Hence I pass on these to win always no matter how good they look on paper.

[cnollfan]

The percentage of winning favorites at most New Mexico tracks was below average last year.

[Charli125]

I was surprised by the ROI on some of the tracks with a high win pct. CBY for example had a 41% win pct and a .94 ROI. With a high enough rebate, that's a positive ROI betting the favorite in every race. Even betting to Place it's a positive ROI.

A few others get you close like PRM, TDN, and AQU.

I usually shy away from the favorite unless I see value, but I thought the ROI would be very low if favorites won at such a high percentage. I want to look at a few of those tracks by odds because I bet with some minimum odds you can make some money.

[therussmeister]

But there's a catch. Canterbury's pools are so small that betting enough to get a good rebate will lower the odds too

[Charli125]

But there's a catch. Canterbury's pools are so small that betting enough to get a good rebate will lower the odds too

Good point.