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View Full Version : New Dave Schwartz Project: The Renegade Handicapper


Dave Schwartz
06-18-2012, 09:25 PM
My newest offering - The Renegade Handicapper project - is close to development. This is the Odds Line Maker I have talked about and shared with Thaskalos.


In a nutshell...

1. I am going to teach you a method for making an oddsline quickly and easily without any worry of validity. When you see the simplicity and power of this, you will just be amazed.

2. You can compute it in under a minute using a hand-held calculator, but it will be easier still with the spreadsheets provided.

3. It will include a special methodology for handling first-time starters, foreign horses and other question mark-horses.

4. It will clearly show you the difference between an unplayable race, a playable race, a highly-playable race and a chaos race.

5. It will find overlays in all odds ranges.

6. It will tell you how to size your wagers.


(No, it does not make coffee or help you play the piano.)


The question is, before I put in the effort to build it, how many are really interested in it?

If I get a good response quickly, I will have this ready by July 18th. If there is little or no interest, then I will not produce it at all.

The product will be priced at $77 but, as usual, there is a significant discount for early purchasers: Just $47 as a pre-order.

HUSKER55
06-18-2012, 11:39 PM
let me know when you are ready and I will get it.

Richard
06-19-2012, 05:33 AM
Dave,
Let me know when you're ready to accept orders.
Richard

rwryley
06-19-2012, 03:18 PM
I would be interested

jdhanover
06-19-2012, 03:30 PM
Sounds interesting Dave!

plainolebill
06-19-2012, 05:02 PM
I'd buy it.

Helles
06-19-2012, 08:40 PM
This sounds like a very exciting product. I can't wait to see it. The implications of a working line like this are game-changing.

cardinalsfan
06-19-2012, 08:47 PM
I'm on board!

rowboat
06-19-2012, 09:10 PM
It might be interesting tired of systems can it work at harness

bigscotty
06-19-2012, 09:25 PM
This is something I want to have

Bill Ritchie

riskman
06-19-2012, 10:29 PM
Would be interested to see your approach to this subject. Count me in.

Turkoman
06-20-2012, 08:51 AM
I'm interested, since I feel I have much to learn about the creation of odds lines. Is it an e-book or the printed version?

Dave Schwartz
06-20-2012, 09:50 AM
Neither. It is a video seminar.

valueguy
06-20-2012, 01:47 PM
Hi Dave. Did you touch upon your method in the advanced Earley/Late seminar? Example if 28% or more of the tote does not contain one of your
contenders then your contanders are overlaid to a small degree. If over 35%
of the tote does not show one of your 3-4 contenders then you open up your
wallet.If this is the method you will be using then i assume you have fine tuned it so that each of your contenders would now have a probability to odds ratio
that would make a bet on one or more of your contenders profitable.

Thanks for your feedback.

Dave Schwartz
06-20-2012, 04:23 PM
There is some connection to that but this is a more complete methodology. That did not actually produce a useable line. Neither does it tell you who and how much to bet.

bob60566
06-20-2012, 08:44 PM
Hi Dave. Did you touch upon your method in the advanced Earley/Late seminar? Example if 28% or more of the tote does not contain one of your
contenders then your contanders are overlaid to a small degree.
If over 35%
of the tote does not show one of your 3-4 contenders then you open up your
wallet.If this is the method you will be using then i assume you have fine tuned it so that each of your contenders would now have a probability to odds ratio
that would make a bet on one or more of your contenders profitable.

Thanks for your feedback.

Intresting to use those percentages in the win pool, And at Woodbine tonight on my selections so far is very accurate guide.

Mac :)

Mike A
06-20-2012, 08:54 PM
I would definitely buy this.

big frank
06-21-2012, 08:08 PM
100 % in dave

barshoe
06-21-2012, 10:38 PM
dave im in also

TrifectaMike
06-22-2012, 09:32 AM
Dave,

Is this methodology an adjunct to a particular handicapping process or is it an appendage, which can be used with any hadicapping process?

Mike (Dr Beav)

Dave Schwartz
06-22-2012, 10:35 AM
It can be used with any handicapping process.

My guess would be that when you hear how it works, you will say:

1. Is that all?

2. Wait! That's brilliant!

WPL
06-22-2012, 10:51 PM
I hit the big 100% button, and I'm all-in if you are going to create the product...

punteray
06-23-2012, 09:51 AM
Best thing going!!

TrifectaMike
06-23-2012, 10:19 AM
It can be used with any handicapping process.

My guess would be that when you hear how it works, you will say:

1. Is that all?

2. Wait! That's brilliant!

Thanks Dave.

I believe I have fairly good idea of what you are proposing. My concern would be with the stability of the group win percentage of the contenders. If the stability can be maintained to within an acceptable interval, I believe what you are proposing will at minimum drive them to the profitability portion of the curve. I can also see the computational simplicity involved.

If I am correct I can see the benefits that many can acquire with your approach.

Good luck,
Mike (Dr Beav)

Dave Schwartz
06-23-2012, 10:28 AM
And I think that you think you have one of the major pieces when in reality, it is a minor piece.

As I said, I think you will be surprised.

TrifectaMike
06-23-2012, 10:35 AM
And I think that you think you have one of the major pieces when in reality, it is a minor piece.

As I said, I think you will be surprised.
Well, since you know and I don't ...even the minor piece (if it is minor) is worth the effort.

Mike (Dr Beav)

P.S. It ia always a good idea to know the percentage of the pool that is available to you.

Dave Schwartz
06-23-2012, 11:29 AM
P.S. It ia always a good idea to know the percentage of the pool that is available to you.

True, but has little to do with my approach, beyond the fact that any odds line approach would consider that indirectly.

mannyberrios
06-23-2012, 08:08 PM
Count me in.

piamemow
06-24-2012, 09:52 AM
Can you purchase in 2 payments ? Times are a little tough right at this moment. I would purchase more if it would be offered in this way.

Dave Schwartz
06-24-2012, 11:01 AM
It is possible to arrange payments for products in our store. However, one does not get "early bird" pricing when payment arrangements are necessary.

NormanTD
06-24-2012, 07:39 PM
I voted in the poll but didn't post here. I'm 100% sure I'll be there.

Old Timer
06-28-2012, 07:39 PM
Add one more to the "will buy" list. Let me know when payment is due.

Handiman
07-01-2012, 12:44 AM
Okay Dave... Might as well add me to the list. Or else i will come stay for more than one night...:lol:

Handi:)

kroow
07-01-2012, 11:12 AM
add me to the list

mjw
07-01-2012, 01:07 PM
Consider me in!

Dave Schwartz
07-01-2012, 01:36 PM
The product will be available in our store tomorrow afternoon for advance purchase. Thanks to everyone who participated in the poll.

Expected release is July 18.

Dave Schwartz
07-02-2012, 09:26 PM
The Renegade Handicapper video seminar is now available in our store at pre-release pricing. Target release date: July 18th, 2012

http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/Renegade%20Handicapper.jpg


The pre-release cost is $47 - that is almost 40% off the regular price of $77!

You can save $30 by ordering while the product is in the pre-release phase!

Special Deal: The first 50 purchasers will receive a very, very special deal on any of my products that they do not already own. Isn't there some product in our store that you have considered buying if you could get it at a gigantic discount? Well, you can get any single product for 2/3's off!



Link to order te download version (http://store.thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/renegade-handicapper-download/)

Link to the CD version ($8 more) (http://store.thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/renegade-handicapper-cd/)

Turkoman
07-03-2012, 04:54 AM
Dave:

After clicking on the link and placing the order, what else has to be done in order to get the 2/3's off from another product?

Dave Schwartz
07-03-2012, 12:46 PM
Emails will be sent later today which will contain the coupon code.

A new newsletter today as well.

Turkoman
07-03-2012, 12:48 PM
Thanks, Dave. I'm ready to make the purchase now.

mannyberrios
07-03-2012, 10:57 PM
Just placed my order

mannyberrios
07-04-2012, 09:06 PM
Dave, do you need the racing form to make this odds line?

Dave Schwartz
07-04-2012, 10:08 PM
You need your handicapping.

mannyberrios
07-05-2012, 07:50 AM
Thank you, Dave

jeebus1083
07-07-2012, 12:29 AM
I'm "all-in", Dave.

bob60566
07-07-2012, 06:50 PM
Any feedback on this item.

Dave Schwartz
07-07-2012, 07:11 PM
You have to wait until it is released for the feedback.

July 18.

Dave Schwartz
07-08-2012, 09:17 PM
Just wanted to let everyone know that I am on (or slightly ahead of) schedule for our planned July 18th release date.

Turkoman
07-08-2012, 10:04 PM
Just wanted to let everyone know that I am on (or slightly ahead of) schedule for our planned July 18th release date.

That's nice to know. :)

Strike The Gold
07-11-2012, 04:51 PM
Dave,

If one orders the CD version (so they have a backup copy) do they get access to the download version as well? Or does one have to wait for snail mail?

Woody

Dave Schwartz
07-11-2012, 06:19 PM
Woody,

Yes, you just need to send me an email after you purchase requesting an immediate electronic delivery.

Dave

Houndog
07-13-2012, 03:41 PM
"Diamond" Dave I'm all in. Will place order now. Believe me the nickname is with all due respect.

Dave Schwartz
07-13-2012, 07:53 PM
Thanks, Mike.

Dave Schwartz
07-16-2012, 03:24 PM
Still on schedule for Wednesday evening delivery and CDs shipping on Thursday.

BTW, I decided to give everyone who purchases the Renegade Handicapper the 67% off of anything else they buy. The coupon expires on July 18.

Also, you can use that coupon multiple times but only for the person who purchased the Renegade Handicapper.

Right now HSH is flying off the shelves (relatively speaking) at $199 per copy.


September 1st HSH will get a big price jump, to $1,200.

Dave Schwartz
07-18-2012, 11:40 AM
Why is it that projects always run longer than expected?

Here is where I am:

*Spreadsheets are finished
*Worksheets are finished
*Slides are finished
*Recordings are in progress

I still have some recording to do and hope to have them finished today. However, I will not sacrifice quality. This is the best seminar I have ever done and I do not want it to be less than that because I hurried at the end.


Stay tuned here and I will keep you appraised. Realistically, I expect that I will not ship until tomorrow.

The pre-release price is still in effect through today as are the coupons for 67% off other products (with purchase of Renegade Handicapper).

Dave Schwartz
07-18-2012, 09:26 PM
Update: Two of my videos have to be re-recorded. Sound quality was poor.

I will definitely not be able to ship tonight. :-(

Very soon, though.

jeebus1083
07-18-2012, 10:10 PM
Looking forward to it Dave. Was hoping to test it out for opening day at Saratoga, but hey, what can you do?

Dave Schwartz
07-19-2012, 12:17 PM
As I went through final proof late last night I located two more videos that had poor sound quality. Yesterday I changed the headset so the problem did not occur on the newest ones I re-recorded yesterday. So, today I am off to do those last two.

Typically, the recording is at about a 7:1 ration, so a 30 minute recording takes 3.5 hours or so.

I am at this and will get it out just ASAP.

Sorry for any inconvenience this may cause anyone.

Dave

Dave Schwartz
07-19-2012, 12:57 PM
I have sent everyone who purchased a message informing them of the delay.

BTW, the price is still $47 in the store and will remain as such. However, the coupons for the 67% off everything else is expired as of last night.

wonatthewire1
07-20-2012, 07:02 PM
I have sent everyone who purchased a message informing them of the delay.

BTW, the price is still $47 in the store and will remain as such. However, the coupons for the 67% off everything else is expired as of last night.

Hi Dave,
Will the availability be posted here or via email (download version)?
Thanks

Dave Schwartz
07-20-2012, 07:28 PM
Yes, both.

I have only one more video to re-do. It is about 20 minutes long so it should take me no more than 2-2.5 hours.

Last night I was re-recording #5 and had a brainstorm that would cut out 40% of the work for the paper-pencil-calculator handicappers! I spent 5 hours producing a set of "cheat sheets" so they could skip the calculator and look things up instead. In the long run, a worthy investment of my time.

After this last video is finished, then I must create the installation and upload it to the vending website. Still more work. I hope to have this wrapped up before I go to bed tonight.


Dave

Dave Schwartz
07-21-2012, 12:16 AM
Okay... I am finished.

The last steps are to polish a couple of spreadsheets and a few other odds and ends, then make an install, emails, CD labels, CDs, etc.

I am shot for tonight and will finish in the morning.


Thanks for everyone's patience. Enjoy your Saratoga and DMR.

erikeepper
07-21-2012, 12:08 PM
Patience is running out... ;) Product is downloadable today?

cdax
07-21-2012, 01:17 PM
Not mine, I will gladly wait.

Dave Schwartz
07-21-2012, 02:32 PM
It is finished!

I am working on the installation files, etc. now. You should get your email within the next 3-4 hours.

Those who are receiving CDs will also be given an opportunity to download while they wait for their CDs to arrive.

Hustling to get those to the post office today.


Dave

Dave Schwartz
07-21-2012, 04:27 PM
Files are uploading and CDs are burning...

Stay tuned.

Dave Schwartz
07-21-2012, 04:54 PM
All emails have been sent.

If you do not receive your email by 3pm (pacific) please email me so that I may follow up.

If you ordered a CD, it will be mailed today but you also were sent a download link.

Dave

Dave Schwartz
07-21-2012, 06:09 PM
I am getting a remarkable number of requests from people to view the videos on their iPads. I am working on a set of files that should be viewable.

Stay tuned.

mannyberrios
07-21-2012, 06:45 PM
Thank you ,Dave

Some_One
07-21-2012, 06:49 PM
I am getting a remarkable number of requests from people to view the videos on their iPads. I am working on a set of files that should be viewable.

Stay tuned.

With mp4 files, I download them, and add them into Itunes and sync my Ipad, works for me.

Dave Schwartz
07-21-2012, 07:13 PM
Yes, but I have someone who does not have a computer.

I am now uploading the files to an ipad-friendly location in pure MP4 format.

It will be about 30 minutes.

Some_One
07-22-2012, 09:24 PM
My review of the product is as simply as the message may be, the logic seems to work, similar to the Basic of Winning message where if you agree with the public on who the favs/contenders are, it'll be tough to profit on the race. However my one point of contention is that I'm not sure how effective it'll be for poly/turf races, in my testing I already think I might have to find a deviation for the ruleset, and anecdotally I believe the public isn't great when it comes to these races so I have some work to do on my own.

Dave Schwartz
07-22-2012, 10:24 PM
Personally, I find maiden and turf races is where it works the best.

valueguy
07-24-2012, 06:31 PM
I like the concept and simplicty.But most of my playing occurs at the race
book where a computer is not avaiable. During the course of developing the
method did you find some kind of correlation between the ML and final Tote
bearing in mine field size and ML odds ie( the lower the ML odds the tighter
the spread )? Obviously the closer to the start the more predictive your
object using tote odds.But is there a way to use the ML with say 80%
predivtive value ? Then fine tune the real time numbers at the sports book.This way i could plug in the numbers using the ADJ ML at home using the spread sheet.

Appreciate your feedback.

Dave Schwartz
07-24-2012, 07:32 PM
You must use tote odds. That is the entire point.

jeebus1083
07-25-2012, 08:04 PM
Can you use the Beyer numbers for the speed object?

Dave Schwartz
07-25-2012, 08:44 PM
Sure.

WPL
07-25-2012, 09:05 PM
Great job with this new product, Dave!

Dave Schwartz
07-25-2012, 09:13 PM
Thank you.

traveler
08-03-2012, 03:34 PM
From the poll looks like about 50 people should have bought the product.

Anyone have any comments?

Dave Schwartz
08-03-2012, 03:40 PM
Way more than 50. I have had positive feedback from many. Perhaps some will post here?

mannyberrios
08-03-2012, 10:25 PM
This is great ,Dave. Thank you

Turkoman
08-05-2012, 11:52 AM
Way more than 50. I have had positive feedback from many. Perhaps some will post here?

Dave, thank you very much for the creation of the Renegade Handicapper. I finally finished watching the tenth and final video last night, but will probably go over the videos at least once more. Id say that the seminar is very unique, interesting, informative, and one can easily notice that it was done with an abundance of enthusiasm. Taking into consideration the great quality of your work, I am definitely inclined to use the 60% off coupon towards the purchase of your e-book, Percentages & Probabilities. I sincerely feel it will be worth it. Thanks again.

Turkoman

HuggingTheRail
08-06-2012, 12:11 AM
Dave, thank you very much for the creation of the Renegade Handicapper. I finally finished watching the tenth and final video last night, but will probably go over the videos at least once more. Id say that the seminar is very unique, interesting, informative, and one can easily notice that it was done with an abundance of enthusiasm. Taking into consideration the great quality of your work, I am definitely inclined to use the 60% off coupon towards the purchase of your e-book, Percentages & Probabilities. I sincerely feel it will be worth it. Thanks again.

Turkoman

thanks for posting Turkoman...I havent purchased the Renegade (yet.....), but I did purchase P&P several months ago...it's awesome. Appreciate you taking the time to provide your thoughts.

barn32
08-06-2012, 02:17 AM
Dave, thank you very much for the creation of the Renegade Handicapper. I finally finished watching the tenth and final video last night...

Turkoman

Ten videos?!

PaceAdvantage
08-06-2012, 02:53 AM
Ten videos?!How many would you think to be appropriate? One? Three?

Why do you seem somewhat shocked?

punteray
08-06-2012, 11:48 AM
If you were to count ALL of the videos that Dave has made, past and present, you would need more than ten fingers and ten toes!

Dave Schwartz
08-06-2012, 12:08 PM
It's really funny. I have people who say how they enjoy the fact that I take time to explain everything completely then I have people who say, "Can't you just give me the 10-minute version?"

My experience with the 10-minute version is always that there are two hours of questions to follow.

These 10 videos were actually relatively short. I think the total time was only about 3 hours. It simply takes time to explain things properly.

HuggingTheRail
08-06-2012, 12:17 PM
It's really funny. I have people who say how they enjoy the fact that I take time to explain everything completely then I have people who say, "Can't you just give me the 10-minute version?"

My experience with the 10-minute version is always that there are two hours of questions to follow.

These 10 videos were actually relatively short. I think the total time was only about 3 hours. It simply takes time to explain things properly.

Dave, can't I just give you my account number and password to my ADW and you bet for me?? :p

Dave Schwartz
08-06-2012, 01:11 PM
Dave, can't I just give you my account number and password to my ADW and you bet for me?

LOL - An offer I have had before.

As I have said many times, "I am not looking for a day job."

thaskalos
08-06-2012, 01:25 PM
As I have said many times, "I am not looking for a day job."

How about a night job?

We can bet at Evangeline and Charles Town...:)

Turkoman
08-06-2012, 01:52 PM
thanks for posting Turkoman...I havent purchased the Renegade (yet.....), but I did purchase P&P several months ago...it's awesome. Appreciate you taking the time to provide your thoughts.

Oh, you're quite welcome. I simply thought it was only appropriate to post a positive comment about Dave's great work with the Renegade Handicapper. It's only fair. By the way, I have already ordered Percentages & Probabilities. I'm pretty sure it's another work of great quality.

Turkoman

dkithore
08-13-2012, 06:49 AM
WELL, IF YOU ARE DEBATING WHETHER TO BY THIS PRODUCT, MY EXPERIENCE IS POSITIVE. THIS PRODUCT IS A LIFE CHANGER FOR ME. HOW? FOR THE FIRST TIME I FEEL IN CONTROL OF THE GAME. THAT IS, BETTING, VALUE. I FEEL MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT DECISIONS I MAKE THAN BEFORE. THAT DOES NOT MEAN I DON'T LOSE BETS. BUT USING THE PUBLIC'S INSIGHTS INTO THE MARKET HAS IMPROVED MY GAME. I AM STILL ANALYZING 200 RACES PLAYED SINCE LEARNING THIS TOOL. TO SEE PERCENTAGES OF BETS THAT WERE WINNERS VS. LOSERS. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS i HAVE STOPPED DEPOSITING MONEY IN MY ADW ACCOUNT SINCE I STARTED THE ODDS LINE.

DISCOVERED BY DAVE SCHWARTZ AND HIS TEAM, WITH THIS ODDS LINE, FOR THE FIRST TIME I AM ACTUALLY MAKING A FEW CENTS ON A DOLLAR. YES. I WANT TO THANK YOU DAVE. YOU KNOW I PLAY AUSTRALIAN RACING AND UK DUE TO TIME ZONE DIFFERENCES. BUT RENEGADE DOES NOT CARE. IT WORKS.

AS DAVE SAID IN HIS TUTORIAL, ROBUST CONTENDER SELECTION IS A MUST TO MAKE THIS TOOL POWERFUL. THAT TAKES A LITTLE TIME BUT IMPROVISED NEW PACE AND SEMI DECENT SPEED FIGURES, IT IS POSSIBLE TO DO BETTER THAN BREAKEVEN. I AM EXCITED FOR BETTER RESULTS THAN I M GETTING NOW. KUDOS TO U AND YOUR TEAM.

Dave Schwartz
08-13-2012, 09:20 AM
Thank you, DK.

Your post is much appreciated.

punteray
08-13-2012, 12:00 PM
Whats to debate? This is the best product to hit horse racing in the past 100 years. And I am damn near that age!!!

Helles
08-14-2012, 07:25 PM
Let's be clear. Although Dave gave recognition to some of us for brainstorming ideas that lead to Renegade Handicapper, the work was all Dave's. He didn't correct anybody, but it wasn't a 'team', it was Dave.

Credit where credit is due.

jdhanover
08-14-2012, 10:08 PM
Let's be clear. Although Dave gave recognition to some of us for brainstorming ideas that lead to Renegade Handicapper, the work was all Dave's. He didn't correct anybody, but it wasn't a 'team', it was Dave.

Credit where credit is due.


Well, then, you are all welcome as the idea was actually 100 percent mine :lol: :lol: :lol:

Sinner369
08-15-2012, 07:43 AM
Whats to debate? This is the best product to hit horse racing in the past 100 years. And I am damn near that age!!!


Can anyone be more specific and tell the rest of us why they like the Renegade Handicapper?