A challenge to SQ

[trying2win]

Scott:

--How about listing one of your harness race selections now and then that you like. That way, we can track how you do over a period of time. You give the impression you know a lot about harness racing, so how about giving us the benefit of your knowledge?

--You're not going to be like Magna are you? That is, you aren't going to tell us that you're not going to give away any free selections, are you? Plus, that if we want them, then we're going to have to pay for them at the TRACKMASTER or your own website. C'mon Scott, surely you have a magnanimous side to you.

--By the way, I would love to see a harness handicapping TV show, where you and the illustrious Steve M. of Harness Handicapping Central fame at www.kimstarr.org would give your opinions on harness racing. You both seem to have similar personalities. So, I could envision some great verbal battles. Sort of like a point-counterpoint type of show. Wow! Would that ever be entertaining. Probably would get more laughs, be more entertaining and get better ratings than a TV show like "Celebrity Boxing!"

Thanks,

Trying2win

[sq764]

To answer you:

1) I better know something about harness racing by now or I have wasted some good years :-)

2) The only part i envy about Magna is their money! I can certainly share any thoughts I have on any track other that meadowlands (due to the TM agreement)..

3) I don't know Steve M personally, but a friend of mine does and from what I knew, he's a good guy. He is a very good handicapper and he often drives in amateur races (and has won some at Freehold).

Give me a favorite track that everyone wants to see and I will handicap some races from it.. maybe I will post some Balmoral races for Sun night..

[trying2win]

Scott,

--Thanks for the reply.

--It's interesting you mentioned about Steve M. driving harness horses in some amateur races. I was reading online about some of his exploits in these races. I think it was in the last year or two. He might have been driving in something called the Billings Amateur Series.

--I see they even have races at Pompano Park with amateur drivers, now and then. The surprising thing is they allow betting on these races. I won't bet on these kind of races, but obviously some people will.

--Okay, a few of your selections for Balmoral Park on Sunday would be fine. I usually find more playable races on Balmoral Park's Saturday evening cards, myself.

--Speaking of TRACKMASTER, how does one get to be a selector on their website? I know you can't give away too many secrets, but it would be interesting to find out how a person gets a contract with them to sell harness race selections.

Trying2win

[sq764]

Tryingtowin, it's just as easy to post the entire card for Balmoral Sunday, so I will provide the link to it.. (Important to read how to use the selections before anyone does any wagering)..

The full card is posted here:

http://www.equineinvestor.com/BalmoralPark11104.htm


Scott

[trying2win]

Scott,

--Okay, I checked over the selections and instructions you provided for Balmoral on the Sun. Jan. 11/04 card. Got a question or two.

--Just looking at the 1st race as an example, I can understand where you got the half and the final numbers (because I have the past performance program). Of course, ML is morning line odds. Now, what do 1.1 A Odds mean on the horse named HIGHER CALLING? Also, on your instruction page, what does it
mean when you say?:

"When the top choice is less than 2.0 Value odds and/or the top choice is a clear cut choice on the Value Odds (+.5 over the 2nd choice), it’s usually a good play." (Given the odds on the tote are offering value)

--Would appreciate it if you could clarify those two things for me and perhaps for some other PA members, who don't quite understand some of the terminology.

Thanks,

Trying2win

[sq764]

Basically A-odds are the value odds.. (Equivalent to an oddsline, fair odds, acceptable odds, etc..)

Horses that show up under 2.0 on the oddsline, that end up being overlays, tend to score nicely.

Also, horses that are less than 2.0 on the oddsline AND the next horse is .5 or more than that horse on the oddsline (Horse 1 is 1.7, horse 2 is 2.5, etc..), they score nicely.

I am strictly a value player, so I may pass on a race if nothing of value presents itself to me (nothing over 6/1). But if you use the analysis correctly, you should catch several double digit horses on the card.

My worst days are when its chalk city.. So let's hope for some prices.

[trying2win]

Originally posted by sq764
Basically A-odds are the value odds.. (Equivalent to an oddsline, fair odds, acceptable odds, etc..)

Horses that show up under 2.0 on the oddsline, that end up being overlays, tend to score nicely.

Also, horses that are less than 2.0 on the oddsline AND the next horse is .5 or more than that horse on the oddsline (Horse 1 is 1.7, horse 2 is 2.5, etc..), they score nicely.

I am strictly a value player, so I may pass on a race if nothing of value presents itself to me (nothing over 6/1). But if you use the analysis correctly, you should catch several double digit horses on the card.

My worst days are when its chalk city.. So let's hope for some prices.

Sq,

--As Thomas Edison might have said "Now I see the light!" I had to read your reply here a couple of times, before it sunk in. I was thinking along the lines that A Odds meant final odds, and not fair odds. No wonder I couldn't figure it out!...LOL...Okay, I'm back on track (no pun intended).

Thanks,

Trying2win

[sq764]

If I could know the final odds the night before the races, that would make my life a lot easier!! :-)

[trying2win]

SQ,

--I was just checking the Balmoral results now and then, to see how your selections fared out. It appears, that it was one of those days when not much went right.

--There were some longshot winners this evening at Balmoral, but unfortunately none of them were listed as contenders. Some days go like that at the track, you can't hit a darned thing! Other days, everything seems to go your way...you hit a fistful of 4-figure mutuels...the profits are super, and it's hard to be humble!

--I don't play what public selectors pick, myself...and they don't influence my decisions on what to bet in a race. I don't even look at what they pick in a race very often. What's interesting about the more credible selections, is when they have a fair odds line. I don't see that very often.

--Interestingly, I had win bets on Breezy Knoll Sadie in the 6th race (LOST) and Thethreepannyopera in the 8th race (LOST) at Balmoral. You had them listed as contenders too. Oh well, you can't win 'em all.

--An interesting feature that PA readers can access for free, is at the www.ebetusa.com website. When checking race results, a reader can also check out the final odds a horse went off at (let's say at Balmoral Park), the various totals for all the straight pools, and even the final exactor payoff possibilities.

--At Dover Downs today, I could only find one race worth betting. That was the 13th race. I liked Kovacev, so I put a win bet on him. Fortunately, when I was scanning that race, I noticed a horse named Tigerlee showed an improved effort, by being parked out early in sizzling fractions in a very fast-paced race. So I made an extra win bet on him as well. He won. Saved the day! Now I won't have to check out the shirt sales in the newspaper today. I wouldn't be surprised if you won on Tigerlee as well, SQ.

--

Thanks,

Trying2win

[sq764]

No, there were no excuses, it was mainly a chalky night and the few bombs that scored did not fit the form parameters I have set.. It's the worst case scenario when you have chalk and unthinkable bombs (Kinda like Santa Anita every afternoon :-)

Maybe I will post Tuesday Balmoral, should redeem..

[sq764]

Here is the analysis for Balmoral Park (tonight's card)..

Let's hope for a less chalky night..

http://www.equineinvestor.com/BalmoralPark11304.htm

[sq764]

Well, so far so good.. Nice hit in the 7th tonight, 2nd choice on the sheet, 2.1 oddsline, pays $55.80 to win..

Also $100+ cold exacta in the 3rd..

Now those are the bombs we like!

[trying2win]

Scott,

--Good show! Nice exacta in the 3rd. Super win price on Expresso Melody in the 7th at Balmoral. It's the old story, "It's not how many winners you get that counts, but what do they pay when you do get them!"

--I scanned the Balmoral Entries for this evening, but couldn't find any playable races according to my criteria. I don't like playing NW of 1, 2 , or 3. races for straight condition races, or conditioned claiming races. They had a lot of those kind of races carded at Balmoral for Jan. 13.

--Hope you won some money at Balmoral this day.


Thanks,

Trying2win