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View Full Version : Belmont Park: Sat., June 16 Selections


Teach
06-16-2012, 11:38 AM
Sat., June 16, 2012




Race One:

In this six-furlong, fillies and mares 15K claimer, I give my lukewarmnod to :14: Grunge Girl. This well-named Seattle Slew-bredfilly hashad her ups and downs, recently. The last time out this 4-year-old filly finished an abysmal sixth in state-bred allowancecompany (the filly is now both cutting back a couple furlongs anddropping in company). Yet, prior to that last race, this distafferbroke her maiden in 20K claiming company. I’m focusing on that race:Belmont Park, May 6th. The horse was wide down the backstretch andalso wide on the far turn; however, she turned on the jets in thestretch and eventually pulled away for the win. If she can reprisethat effort, she’ll be a most distinct factor here. Ariel Smith is inthe irons for trainer Paulino Ortiz. Another horse to watch is thethree-year old filly, #5 Last Minute Rose. She was handledwell byRamon Dominguez in her winning effort, a most recent race on May 17 atBelmont Park. However, she barely held on in the final hundred yardsfrom a fast-closing Siberian Wildcat. The filly does cut back ahalf-furlong here; that should help. Ramon Dominguez retains the ridefor trainer Steve Asmussen. The operative word would appear to be:ration out this horse’s speed. She got away with reasonable fractionslast time; she was not pressured until the very end. This time may bedifferent. #10 Mill Branch Millie was no factor in her last atBelmont. She finished well up the track. However, prior to that, shewon in $32,500 claiming company. The A.P Indy-bred filly has hit thetote in half her six-furlong tries. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides for trainerMitchell Friedman. #9 Briolette won her last, amaiden-breaking effortas a 28-1 longshot. She could be the surprise factor if she canrepeat that effort. Jose Ortiz rides for Patrick Reynolds.

Race Two:

In this seven furlongs, 50K optional claimer, my choice in thiswide-open race is :2: Ya GottaHave Soul. The 6-year-old Sunday Silence-bred horse is turningback afurlong to a distance he’s had success at in the past: seven furlongs. In threeraces at that distance, the horse has finished first and second inthree tries. The horse fits well in this company; he might turn out tobe a value play. The horse turned in a solid morning work; he got fourfurlongs in :48.2, breezing. The veteran Edgar Prado rides for trainerBarclay Tagg. Another horse to consider is #7 He’s So Chicwith JuniorAlvarado for trainer Greg Diprima. The horse is stretching out from astakes effort on a muddy track in which he finished fourth. Prior tothat the horse won a seven furlongs 50K claimer. The horse has wontwice in six tries at the distance. The 8-year-old ridgling recentlyhad a sharp four furlongs work in which he perambulated around the Belmonttraining track in :48.3, breezing. #6 Black N Beauty was thirdin hislast at a mile in this company. The colt has hit the board in five ofhis six recent efforts. In his current sharp form he can’t beignored. Jose Lezcano retains the ride for trainer Chris Englehart. Finally, #5 Coosada has admittedly not shown much lately. He’sbeenracing against softer. Yet, he could wake up and add value to yourticket. Ramon Dominguez retains the ride for the hot as a petardo,Rudy Rodriguez.

Race Three:

I’m going to cast my lot with :5: Tiz Moe. This Tiznow-bredthree-yearold gelding is now racing in allowance company after four straight starts in the optionalclaiming ranks. Un Francais himself, Julien Laparoux, is in the irons for trainerMichelleNihei. The horse had an auspicious two-year old beginning in which hebroke his maiden at first asking at Hoosier Downs. He was thenambitiously entered in both the Jean LaFitte and the Grade 3 DeltaDowns Jackpot (the Vinton, LA track is a racino). He finished secondand fifth, respectively. From there he was shipped to Fair Groundswhere, in his last three races, he’s burned up more money than a bankconflagration. Yet, he was inches away from winning in each ofthose three races. I’d like to think that this horse is no stooge. Another horse to consider is #2 Ender Knievel, with JohnVelazquez riding for trainer Todd Pletcher, appears to be "thelogical". The Forty Niner-bredgelding hasn’t been seen in nearly three months when he then competed in aGrade 3 event at Sunland Park; he finished fifth. The horse did have asharp four-furlong work earlier in the week. He appears ready for hisreturn to the races. He seems to be the main threat to the top pick. Anotherhorse worthy of consideration is #6 Penn’s Grant. JuniorAlvaradorides for Barclay Tagg. This 3-year-old Unbridled-bred colt broke hismaiden in the mud in a maiden special weights route. His breedingindicates he should like an “off” track. Will he do as well on a drysurface? I believe he can be part. Finally, #7 Da Vinci withRamonDominguez in the irons for Steve Asmussen also won his last at thisdistance in a race that was taken off the turf and raced on the maintrack. This Seattle Slew/Artax-bred colt has been taking his share ofthe action in recent races, and - I might add -he hasn’t disappointed. He’s finishedfirst twice and second once. He’s two for two at the distance.

Race Four:

I’m going to take a shot in the dark with a highly-priced, extremelywell-bred-for-the-turf, first-time starter, :5: Dynarama. Thishorsehas got the word T-U-R-F written all over her on both sides of herdistinguished family tree: Roberto and the Irish-bred, Theatrical. AsGeorge and Ira Gershwin might have penned: “Who Could Ask For AnythingMore?” I guess the question is: Does this 3-year-old filly know that? Edgar Prado rides for Jim Jerkens. As the DRF cites, the filly’s marehas three winners from three starters and one turf winner. The fillydid have a solid three-furlong work a couple weeks ago. I’ll take mychances. All I can say in situations like these is to: Watch both thehorse on the track and the infield tote. I suppose the obvious is goingto be #4 Lily The Pink with Junior Alvarado in the saddle forHall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott. The 4-year-old Blushing Groom-bredfilly is another bred-for-the-grass distaffer who’s hit the tote in sixof eight lifetime grass tries. She’s finished second twice in threetries at this distance. A note of caution: She hasn’t raced in overtwo months since last being seen at Gulfstream Park where she finishedsecond in maiden special weights company. I must profess that thefilly’s morning works are nothing to write home about, yet, at herbest, she’s very much a factor here. One final comment: She does addblinkers; that can be a big help. #1 Raise The Flag is aDeputyMinister-bred filly who finished third in her last, her first try onthe grass. She was coming on well in the stretch but simply ran out ofreal estate. She now stretches out a bit; that should help. JohnVelazquez rides for “Shug” McGaughey. Again, a note of caution. Thefilly hasn’t been out for awhile and her morning works have been so-so;although she did turn in a :48 secs. 4-furlong work a couple weeksago. #7 Clarinda retains the services of Julien Laparoux whorides forChristophe Clement. Although the filly has never raced on the grass,she does have solid turf breeding. She appears, from her lines, to havethe endurance to get the mile and one-sixteenth. She could be asleeper here and she might just add value to your exotics.

Race Five:

I like the logical choice here in this 20K claiming race to be contestedover the Widener TurfCourse at a distance of one mile and a-sixteenth He is, of course,:2: Dodging. The Speightstown-bred colt who is being ridden by the “PanamanianPhenom,” Eddie Castro; he rides fortrainer Bill Mott. This four-year old colt has won two straight on"the weeds" against similar company. I believe he can make it a "hattrick". I must admit that I'm intrigued by the only distaffer in thefield, #5 Love Shack (Remember the B-“52’s hit) The HolyBull-bred mare has hit the tote three times infive lifetime turf tries. She’s had a first and second in two turftries at the distance. She narrowly missed last time at this distance;she finished second by a nose. The ever-improving Wilmer Garcia ridesfor trainer Linda Rice. #8 Monastir doesn't look like a"picture-taker," but to hit the board and complete a gimmick or exotic,that's doable. Cornelio Velasquez rides for Jason Servis. This A.P.Indy-bred gelding has seen his number come up on the tote board in overhalf his turf tries. Finally, a longshot try, #10 R J Hope, ThisSilver Deputy-bred gelding is another one of those "exoticsenhancers". The horse has hit the tote in six of fourteen lifetimeturf tries. He's six out of 11 at this distance. He's certainlycapable of surprising.

Race Six:

As we return to the lawn on this lovely, late-spring day, I like:8:
Dealbata. The Chad Brown-trainee is ridden by Raaamon Dominguez. This
European-bred turf specialist has been campaigning "Acroos the Pond" in
the "Isle de France". He now makes his American debut. Yes, it's been
about seven months since this four-year old filly won on the lawn at
Saint Cloud, and I might add her morning work tab, since arriving on
our fair shores, is nothing to write home about, she does, however, have loads of class. I guess the question remains: "Is she ready?"
I believe if she's reasonably ready, she can prevail. Oh, she does get
first-time lasix. #4 Bubbly Jane has hit the tote in 10 out of 12
turf tries. She's won six of those. The most capable Javier
Castellano ride for Todd Pletcher. The mare's recent five-furlong work
on the grass was a solid effort. She appears ready after a 9-month
hiatus. #6 Federation will likely be the chalk; the European-bred
four-year old filly has been installed as the 9/5 morning-line fave.
She's another who's raced on the other side of The Atlantic in "Jolly
ol' England". Since coming to our fair shores, the filly won two and
finished second once at Tampa, and in her most recent start, she finished
fourth as a 2-1 shot here at Belmont. Cornelio Velasquez rides for
trainer Christophe Clement. Finally, There's #5 Check The Label. The
5-year-old Storm Cat-bred mare has won six of her 15 lifetime turf
tries. She's hit the tote in nine of 15 grass efforts. Alan Garcia is
in the irons for Christophe Clement.

Race Seven:

In this six-furlong allowance sprint I'm going with the logical, :9: B
Shanny. This highly-priced 3-year-old colt won his last, a
maiden-breaking effort at Saratoga, last August. Yes, he hasn't raced
in about 10 months; however, the horse's morning work tab has been
good. Ramon Dominguez rides for trainer Mike Hushion (he's winless, as
of this DRF edition, at the meet). I'm going to try for some value with
a horse I believe will be a distinct longshot. I'm talking about #11
Bruce's Choice. Yes, I know it's a big leap from constantly hitting
the tote in Canandaigua to landing in the
winner's circle in "The Big Apple". However, this Cox's Ridge
3-year-old gelding has been a most consistent sort. True, there's only
been one maiden-breaking win, but in her six other races the horse
finished second each time. That's not too shabby. #10 Master Splash with
Cornelio Velasquez in the irons for trainer Chris Englehart has
repeatedly been facing this kind of company in recent months. He will
occasionally hit the tote. That's what I would be looking for in
gimmicks and superfecta plays. To win this, though not impossible,
would be a reach; he's won only once in seventeen tries; however as an
exotics enhancer, he just might fill the bill. #5 NotMyFirstTime broke his maiden in his last, a five-and-one-half furlong sprint. He was the odds on fave. But now he tries allowance company. You can bve a star at
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, but you have to show you can do it at Yamkee Stadium. I'm not necessarily saying the horse can't, it's just that I have my
suspicions. Mike Luzzi rides this Johannesburg-bred colt for trainer Steve Asmussen.

Race Eight:

Well, from here on out, it's "Turf City, here we come." In this Grade3 Hill Prince Stakes, I'm casting my lot with the rail horse, :1: Summer
Front. Ramon Dominguez is in the irons for Christophe Clement. The
Danzig-bred colt had an excuse in his last, the Peter Pan; he stumbled
at the start and was also bumped. That compromised any chance of
hitting the tote. Prior to that, he had won three straight, one, a
maiden-breaking effort at first asking before finishing second this
past April in the Lexington at Keeneland. The colt has had some solid
morning works that include a "bullet" effort on June 3rd. This is also
the horse''s third start back after a layoff. Another horse to
consider is #7 Shkspeare Shaliyah. I recall the horse just missing in
his first start at Saratoga and then winning two straighht. Since
those wins the horse has been ambitiously entered against some pretty
top-flight company, including the Breeders Cup Juvenile race at
Churchill Downs. Although this Theatrical-bred colt hasn't shown much
recently, I believe he fits well in this company. #9 Howe Great looks
logical here. Alan Garcia rides for the red-hot trainer, Graham Motion. This
Sunday Silence-bred colt has won three of four lifetime turf tries.
I'm sure he'll be highly regarded by the betting public, and,
deservedly so. My previous choices are frankly an attempt to shoot
for some value. This horse should go off as a the fave. #8 Our Entourage
gets Eddie Castro in the irons for trainer Todd Pletcher; he has won two of three lifetime turf tries. The Dynanaformer-bred coilt had a sharp
four-furlong work about a week ago. The horse went off the chalk about
a month ago in an optional claimer but finished fifth. I do not see
this colt as a "picture-taker" here, but to complete an exotic...

Race Nine:

:6: She's Always Hot is my longshot pick in the route turf allowance
race for non-winners of two. This Storm Cat-bred filly had hit the
tote in two of her three lifetime turf tries. Despite a bobble at the
start, the filly broke her maiden in her last at this same distance.
If she gets a clean trip here, that would make her very much a factor.
Eddie Castro rides for Ed Allard. #10 Satin Sheeks will be the likely
fave here; she's been installed as the 7/5 ML fave. The Gone
West-bred filly has hit the tote in two out of three lifetime turf
tries. The filly broke her maiden back in April in maiden special
weights company; she follwed that up with a second-place finish in
allowance company on May 6. Alan Garcia rides for Mike Hushion. #9
Reach For A Peach has Ariel Smith in the saddle for trainer Chad Brown. She won her last at this distance back in Novembver, 2011. The Storm Cat-bred filly appears ready for her return to the races by virtue of her sharp recent four-furlongs works. The filly has hit the tote in two of three turf
tries. Finally, #1 Elusive Rumour broke her maiden at this distance
back on March 29 at Aqueduct. The Gone West-bred
filly is ridden by Junior Alvarado and trained bty Tom Albertrani The
filly finished fourth in her last in allowance company. Any slight
improvement would see her number up on the tote.

Race Ten:

In the finale, a turf sprint maiden race, I like the ML fave, :8: Sherry
Bay G. She's been third and fourtgh, respectively, in her two recent sprint
turf tries. I think the the third time's a charm. The most capable
Eddie Castro rides for trainer Christophe Clement. Another filly who
figures to be there is #5 Desert Bliss. This Forty Niner-bred
distaffer finished second in maiden special weights company in her
last. Any slight improvement puts her right there at the wire. Irad
Ortiz, Jr. rides Jeremiah Englehart,. The filly has been second three
times in sevenn turf tries. Another filly worthy of consideration is
#7 Carey Princess. This Danzig-bred roan filly was leading into the
stretch in claiming company in her last; she finisahed third. Her
running style seems to say that she'll likely "be on the engine" and
playing "catch me if you can". Does she have the endurance? I have my
suspicions. However, jockey Maylan Studart might just be able to put this
horse's number up on the tote. Finally, a gambler's throw, #2 Esthers
Classy Las is a first-time starter out of the Desmond Farrell barn that
has solid turf breeding in her lineage, e.g., Fappiano. That doesn't mean
that she'll necessarily do anthing at first asking, but... I'd like
her more if I knew she were going to gun out from her two-hole
starting slot and contend for the lead., Her recent works are
acceptable but certainly not outstanding. All I can say is take a
look her on the track and watch for betting patterns.

tzipi
06-16-2012, 01:18 PM
Nice call on Grunge Girl Teach. Serling picked Miss Libby. Bewteen your guys picks, you got a $570 exacta. Anyway, nice job :ThmbUp: