Stephen Foster Handicap

[andtheyreoff]

Another great field of older horses. Don't forget this race will be at night on Saturday, with a post time of 9:39 PM EST.

Opinions?

:1: Wise Dan
:1a: Successful Dan (Note: unlikely to run)
:2: Nates Mineshaft
:3: Fort Larned
:4: Nehro
:5: Ron the Greek
:6: Rogue Romance
:7: Mission Impazible
:8: Alternation

[horses4courses]

Nice horses....should be an open betting race, even though the field is small.

[iceknight]

Nice horses....should be an open betting race, even though the field is small.class handicapping or pace handicapping.. what would help more here?

[ten2oneormore]

Pick 3

r6-Centre Court
r7-Royal Delta
r8-Fort Larned/Wise Dan/Alternation

[horses4courses]

class handicapping or pace handicapping.. what would help more here?

I would say pace - this bunch looks similar class wise.
Lopresti's pair love CD, and either would be tough to beat.

Virtually all of the horses in here have claims to the title of best older horse in the country right now.
Of course, it's early in the season, but the winner of this race would have to be considered as the leader of the pack, so far.

[iceknight]

Is ASTROLOGY also competing this race?

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/70536/mcpeek-takes-a-chance-with-rogue-romance-in-foster I dont see that in the Equibase entry though, so I am kinda confused.

[horses4courses]

Is ASTROLOGY also competing this race?

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/70536/mcpeek-takes-a-chance-with-rogue-romance-in-foster I dont see that in the Equibase entry though, so I am kinda confused.

They must be looking elsewhere with Astrology.

[NTamm1215]

Astrology is in the 3rd race on the card, a N3X at a mile.

[elysiantraveller]

Astrology is in the 3rd race on the card, a N3X at a mile.

Thats probably where Nehro should be as well...

I'm sure he places again.

[iceknight]

Astrology is in the 3rd race on the card, a N3X at a mile. Thank you. Astrology has performed quite below par after his Preakness performance :( oh well!

[Striker]

Race was 5 lengths slower than Royal Delta's win, and they came home in 14 and change the final furlong. That is pretty bad.

[Sysonby]

Yeah, I noticed come-home time was pretty slow. I was thinking they're going to have to step it up when the 3 year olds start running against them.

[Striker]

Game On Dude is the only older horse that has a chance in the BC Classic IMO from what I've seen as of now from the older handicap division.

[OTM Al]

Thank you. Astrology has performed quite below par after his Preakness performance :( oh well!

You have it backward. The Preakness race was the exception. The rest is normal.

[burnsy]

Race was 5 lengths slower than Royal Delta's win, and they came home in 14 and change the final furlong. That is pretty bad.
the internal fractions were faster in the stephen foster though. nates mineshaft really pushed the third quarter and that makes it a tough race at the end. there was pressure for everyone else to keep up. royal delta was rating behind inferior competition and never even had to run hard in that race. she looked great, don't get me wrong. but that race was about half as tough as the foster and less than half as competitive. when you don't have nates mineshaft trying to scramble away in the middle of the race...its alot easier. johnny v who was the hero last week. was a little over confident with wise dan taking the over land route and lezcano burned him for it with a perfect trip on ron the greek.

[sammy the sage]

Didn't play the race...Nehro needs a new jock...and R.R. will be heard from later this year...

[FenceBored]

the internal fractions were faster in the stephen foster though. nates mineshaft really pushed the third quarter and that makes it a tough race at the end. there was pressure for everyone else to keep up. royal delta was rating behind inferior competition and never even had to run hard in that race. she looked great, don't get me wrong. but that race was about half as tough as the foster and less than half as competitive. when you don't have nates mineshaft trying to scramble away in the middle of the race...its alot easier. johnny v who was the hero last week. was a little over confident with wise dan taking the over land route and lezcano burned him for it with a perfect trip on ron the greek.

Sorry, don't buy that a 1:11 6f explains a 14.18 final furlong. And if Nate's Mineshaft doesn't decide to go back to the paddock for a beer there's a good chance Wise Dan wins.

[jorcus99]

the internal fractions were faster in the stephen foster though. nates mineshaft really pushed the third quarter and that makes it a tough race at the end. there was pressure for everyone else to keep up. royal delta was rating behind inferior competition and never even had to run hard in that race. she looked great, don't get me wrong. but that race was about half as tough as the foster and less than half as competitive. when you don't have nates mineshaft trying to scramble away in the middle of the race...its alot easier. johnny v who was the hero last week. was a little over confident with wise dan taking the over land route and lezcano burned him for it with a perfect trip on ron the greek.

Well said, I am still surprised that it turned into a stagger fest considering the class of the field. Normally horses of that caliber tend to run through the pace issues. It's like they all picked the same day to regress.

[Valuist]

Game On Dude is the only older horse that has a chance in the BC Classic IMO from what I've seen as of now from the older handicap division.

I'll take Successful Dan and Ron the Greek any day over Game on Dude.

[Bullet Plane]

The winner of the race did not attend the two quick 23 3/5 internal fractions. Matter of fact, he took advantage of the situation. And he got a rail trip.

On the other hand, Wise Dan was on the heels of those quick internals, was four wide on the second turn after being roughed early to maintain position. He was also carried wide in deep stretch by Nates Mineshaft (who made a premature move in the race) who drifted out.

This caused Wise Dan to lose maybe three-four addition lengths. I suppose you could argue that, but in any case, it was enough ground to lose the race. He appeared to run a very powerful race. But too much bad racing luck cost him the win. Ron the Greek was able to pick up the pieces in a middling effort to get up in time.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not so sure the rail was the best path at CD yesterday. Early in the card I thought it looked like death in there, but now I am less sure. I have to watch replays and review the card before finalizing my view, but at a minimum I don't think saving ground was a plus.

I started the day planning on using Nate's Mineshaft from the rail if the price was right because I thought he was the main speed and might be able to shake loose of the stalkers.

By race time I used Ron the Greek and Nehro expecting they would close on the outside and take advantage of the likely lively pace and bad rail that the speed and stalkers would have to deal with.

I cashed without hitting a home run because Nehro didn't run well, but when Nate was loose running well out on the track and Ron the Greek was coming up the rail I was not a very happy camper.

Like I said, I'm still not sure about the rail, but I think it's likely Ron the Greek got some help from the pace (very predictable) but may not have been on the best part of the track.

[Meunuco]

johnny v who was the hero last week. was a little over confident with wise dan taking the over land route and lezcano burned him for it with a perfect trip on ron the greek.

This was a horrible ride by Johnny V. "Frantic' and 'out of control' come more to mind than 'over confident'. Remains to be seen how much the abuse takes out of Wise Dan. What a shame that he not only gets punished by his jock but loses the race as well. JV seems pretty knowledgeable when it comes to race dynamics the few times I've heard him speak on the subject. Hard to understand why he felt the need to repeatedly punish, to the point of staggering, a horse that was giving its all. Put the whip away and help your horse to the wire. This is something that Cordero did well.

[Striker]

the internal fractions were faster in the stephen foster though. nates mineshaft really pushed the third quarter and that makes it a tough race at the end. there was pressure for everyone else to keep up. royal delta was rating behind inferior competition and never even had to run hard in that race. she looked great, don't get me wrong. but that race was about half as tough as the foster and less than half as competitive. when you don't have nates mineshaft trying to scramble away in the middle of the race...its alot easier. johnny v who was the hero last week. was a little over confident with wise dan taking the over land route and lezcano burned him for it with a perfect trip on ron the greek.
I suppose you feel the same about the Pimilico Special internal fractions when comparing it to the Preakness then. The point is, that this is a very subpar group in the older handicap division.

[Valuist]

I'm not so sure the rail was the best path at CD yesterday. Early in the card I thought it looked like death in there, but now I am less sure. I have to watch replays and review the card before finalizing my view, but at a minimum I don't think saving ground was a plus.

I started the day planning on using Nate's Mineshaft from the rail if the price was right because I thought he was the main speed and might be able to shake loose of the stalkers.

By race time I used Ron the Greek and Nehro expecting they would close on the outside and take advantage of the likely lively pace and bad rail that the speed and stalkers would have to deal with.

I cashed without hitting a home run because Nehro didn't run well, but when Nate was loose running well out on the track and Ron the Greek was coming up the rail I was not a very happy camper.

Like I said, I'm still not sure about the rail, but I think it's likely Ron the Greek got some help from the pace (very predictable) but may not have been on the best part of the track.

I think if there was a bias, it really was a secondary factor to the pace. Dead rails tend to be less significant in routes, as the saving of ground likely offsets much of the negatives of potentially deeper going.

[classhandicapper]

I think if there was a bias, it really was a secondary factor to the pace. Dead rails tend to be less significant in routes, as the saving of ground likely offsets much of the negatives of potentially deeper going.

The pace was clearly an issue in this specific race, but I don't think you can generalize about biases. It depends on the day.

Sometimes the rail is almost certain death no matter what the distance.

Sometimes "several" inside paths are off, not just the rail.

Sometimes the inside is bad, but only on the turn.

Sometimes the impact of the worse footing inside is more or less just an offset to ground loss. So the horses that are running 3-4 wide are at no disadvantage to horses coming up the rail and vice versa.

(same is true for gold rails)

I'm going to have to watch the replays again to figure out what was going on at CD on Saturday because at first glance it looked a few good horses got buried in there during the course of the day, but a couple ran OK later in the card.

[Racey]

Got a brutal ride...worst trip cut off 3 times that i saw on my original viewing of the race. That horse has trouble staying healthy but if he comes back in July at saratoga he is worth a heavy wager (http://#).