A Pick for Tuesday 6/12

[Ray2000]

Meadows Race 16
1 Mile Pace For A Purse Of $13500, Class 90
Cd All Ages Nw $9000 Last 5 Starts Ae: Nw 7 Ext Pm Races Life

Robot calling for a barn-burner half with 4-6-7-8-9 fighting early and #3 Martini Twist/Mike Wilder to pass them in the stretch. Also likes longshot #2 w/ Grismore as a popper in the Exotics.

Playing Ky Box Exacta 3 w/ 2478

Any thoughts on this race?..... :confused:

Good Luck

[melman]

Ray what might mess up this race is the weather forecast. Here in eastern PA calling for rain and t-storms mid afternoon into the night. What about western Pa?

I like the 2 in that race Ray. Chase Legasy has proven a game fighter. Up front speed from others make him a danger IMO. At 8-1 or so.

2-3--7-5

[Ray2000]

Scattered brief showers but looks like Washington county is clear.

The Voice is pickin' the 1 but the trainer Dowdall is driving...a possible? but I can't use.

thx and Good luck

[LottaKash]

Any thoughts on this race?..... :confused:

Good Luck

Ray I looked this race over and I can't come to any conclusions....I couldn't pick my nose in a race like this...Many ways of looking at it, and I cannot come up with a reliable enough thing, per my way of going, to give any of these horses a grren light on my scorecard......

Sometimes I get just a little jealous of others who continually do well in races like these, but in reality, I stink at races like this one...

Years ago I played many a race that had a makeup such as this one....I gambled a lot more back in those days....Now I have become a chicken-shit, and sometimes I am guilty of playing too little vs. too much...haha...


Well. anyway Ray and Mel, good luck with your plays today....Strike-City !!!

best,

[Ray2000]

LK

I had trouble finding anything to bet today, looking at all 10 tracks.
I guess that's why I was hinting for comments.. :)

I ended up with this race and one at Hoosier Park. R9 key the 4,
....but there's always another day...

.

[willphorse]

Competitive race with no clear cut favorite opens up the chance for a massive mutual.

This race, I like the 9 Lucky Lime. Up and down in Exacta with the Field.

[LottaKash]

LK

I had trouble finding anything to bet today, looking at all 10 tracks.
I guess that's why I was hinting for comments.. :)

I ended up with this race and one at Hoosier Park. R9 key the 4,
....but there's always another day...

.

Yeah Ray, I sincerely believe that the track(s) has a "life-cycle", or perhaps "form-cycle" may be another way to say it, of it's own...I have dwelled on this premise for a good long while now...It is like a living breathing thing that brings good and predictable form and then it all gets all blurry again, for a time...

It is something like, "I can't seem to find anything I like in any race, and sometimes at all the tracks simultaneously"....These are the times that my methodology falls flat on it's face...Sometimes, for protracted periods, or only at certain tracks that I play....I play, in order, The Meadows, Pocono, WEG, and M1, and lastly Chester (it will always be Chester to me, haha)...Those are the only tracks that I play now....I don't elsewhere like I used to, I just don't do well at most of the other tracks, is all....These are my Bread and Butter tracks....

Still, getting back to the life cycle of the track....I have not found too much to play as of lately at any of those tracks that I listed above....Coincidence ?...I don't think so, as it continually pops up, as in a cycle...When I just can't find the "Good Bets", you know, the ones that we feel in our bones.....The "=G"" Horse....You just know it in your Guts !...

I back off, and these days way off....I just get frustrated when I play and get 2d and 3ditis or a lot of no-trys that make you wonder about your skills as a handicapper.....

Getting old, makes you much wiser, I suspect, but you know, it just as not as much fun as when I "gambled" away my youth....:jump: :jump: :jump:

best,

P.S. and you know it's even funnier, that even the "robot", can know this...

[Ray2000]

Competitive race with no clear cut favorite opens up the chance for a massive mutual.

This race, I like the 9 Lucky Lime. Up and down in Exacta with the Field.

will

that's what kept me coming back to this one, should produce some nice payoffs.

For those of us who've been around this game since "Brett was a colt" this could be one of those races where driver's (who read the program like all of us do), start to think that this is not a good spot to battle early... I'll duck. And what happens?. only 1 goes, so will, you might be right on that LuckyLime pick. Best of Luck

It happens the other way too, drivers see no speed and they all bust out of there. :D


--------
John
....The "=G"" Horse....You just know it in your Guts !...

yep, and finding that "=G" Horse with a "=V" sticker, (Value), is even rarer. :) GL


.

[Ray2000]

photo for 2nd .......phewww


8 Mccedes Dave Palone 8.00 5.60 3.60
3 Martini Twist Mike Wilder 3.80 2.40
1 Most Happy DragonMichael Dowdall 3.20
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
Exacta 8/3 36.00
Trifecta 8/3/1 130.20
Superfecta 8/3/1/7 765.60

[lamboguy]

photo for 2nd .......phewww


8 Mccedes Dave Palone 8.00 5.60 3.60
3 Martini Twist Mike Wilder 3.80 2.40
1 Most Happy DragonMichael Dowdall 3.20
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
Exacta 8/3 36.00
Trifecta 8/3/1 130.20
Superfecta 8/3/1/7 765.60
nice win ray

[traynor]

Competitive race with no clear cut favorite opens up the chance for a massive mutual.

This race, I like the 9 Lucky Lime. Up and down in Exacta with the Field.

I agree with #9 Lucky Lime, but not with an up and back wheel. That is a sizable wager for the probable return.

[traynor]

I agree with #9 Lucky Lime, but not with an up and back wheel. That is a sizable wager for the probable return.

I know ... Lucky Lime was dead last. That has nothing whatsoever to do with Lucky Lime being the best bet in the race, or with how to bet such a situation.

[CHeCK EyE]

Ray,
Do you buy all the programs every day for all the tracks? How much does that run you if you don't mind me asking or is it a monthly/yearly deal?

[Ray2000]

Checkeye

I buy the data base format, unlimited downloads which also gives access to the pdf version, if wanted.

http://www.trackmaster.com/cgi-bin/pricing.cgi?hpp

$400 per year

Trackmaster has pricier, value-added formats with power and pace numbers if one likes that form.

[LottaKash]

I know ... Lucky Lime was dead last. That has nothing whatsoever to do with Lucky Lime being the best bet in the race, or with how to bet such a situation.

Traynor, I am a bit dispappointed about Lucky Lime being a best bet in this race....or considered to be, by anybody..

He is a young 3yo horse facing older horses...And, has faltered in each and every one of his outside PP's starts (4 of them), that are showing on printed program...Winless actually..So what reason woudl anyone have to believe that anything will change for this horse, especially from the worst post today....No class drop or significant change of any sort...

He has 1-win recently. and that was way back in April...And he has remained winless since...

The only thing that I could come up with, is his late running-pace pattern which is a tad better than most, and the well meant try in his last race...He did give it a go in that one, despite the failure....

I just couldn't bring myself to bet this horse at 5/2....Altho, in his defence he did try to give it a go on the engine today, but couldn't clear the BTN guy who was on the engine the whole way, and LLime simply wilted away earlier than expected, and as usual...

So who wins this race?... The "BTN" (bet tonite) horse McCedes,,,the change from chester to Mea and keeping a top driver in Palone...

I didn't play or like anything enough to stick my neck out,, so was it because I couldn't come up with anything, or am I missing something.??..

best,

[Ray2000]

Have to hand it to Palone, he had the class horse, used just enough energy to hold LL at bay and when he saw? felt? the 1 coming in the backstretch stepped on the gas and scooted away to open lengths. He deserves all the accolades he'll be getting soon....

[LottaKash]

Have to hand it to Palone, he had the class horse, used just enough energy to hold LL at bay and when he saw? felt? the 1 coming in the backstretch stepped on the gas and scooted away to open lengths. He deserves all the accolades he'll be getting soon....

Yeah Ray, Palone does have this way...I love the guy when he comes more east for the stakes races....He is on my high alert list at those times (as Tetrick in Canada)....Or any time, for that matter....Hey, the guy deserves to get his accolade....Didn't Roger Huston say that Palone averaging 3.4 wins a day, and is on schedule for July, maybe, to pass Herve Filion's 15,XXXth win ?....

best,

[traynor]

Traynor, I am a bit dispappointed about Lucky Lime being a best bet in this race....or considered to be, by anybody..

He is a young 3yo horse facing older horses...And, has faltered in each and every one of his outside PP's starts (4 of them), that are showing on printed program...Winless actually..So what reason woudl anyone have to believe that anything will change for this horse, especially from the worst post today....No class drop or significant change of any sort...

He has 1-win recently. and that was way back in April...And he has remained winless since...

The only thing that I could come up with, is his late running-pace pattern which is a tad better than most, and the well meant try in his last race...He did give it a go in that one, despite the failure....

I just couldn't bring myself to bet this horse at 5/2....Altho, in his defence he did try to give it a go on the engine today, but couldn't clear the BTN guy who was on the engine the whole way, and LLime simply wilted away earlier than expected, and as usual...

So who wins this race?... The "BTN" (bet tonite) horse McCedes,,,the change from chester to Mea and keeping a top driver in Palone...

I didn't play or like anything enough to stick my neck out,, so was it because I couldn't come up with anything, or am I missing something.??..

best,

The basic setup of this race indicated Lucky Lime as the best value bet, but not at 5/2. To go off at those odds, one can only assume that others saw the same thing, and put their money on it.

There is a subtle reality here--there is a world of difference between trying to win an individual race, and trying to earn a profit from wagering. In the race indicated, Lucky Lime was the best (most potentially profitable) wager, providing the odds were commensurate with the risk involved. At 5/2, the odds obviously were not commensurate with the risk.

The application I use (quite successfully) considers a "minimum acceptable odds" (MAO) for each selection. The basic idea is to approach racing exactly as professional blackjack players and teams approach casino play--continually seeking and leveraging an edge. The combination of factors indicated Lucky Lime had the best potential for profit, if the availabe odds were equal to or greater than the MAO for that wager. They were not.

The specific reference was to a wager involving an exacta wheel and reverse wheel with Lucky Lime as the key. At MAO or higher, Lucky Lime was the best bet for the win in that race. Nothing, however, indicated that the potential exacta payoffs for the up and back exacta wager would be commensurate with the risk involved. That was the purpose of my comment.

[LottaKash]

There is a subtle reality here--there is a world of difference between trying to win an individual race, and trying to earn a profit from wagering.

The application I use (quite successfully) considers a "minimum acceptable odds" (MAO) for each selection.

At MAO or higher, Lucky Lime was the best bet for the win in that race.

Ok Traynor, enlighten me please, as I am dying to know....What would the acceptable MAO on this horse be.....in each slot....

The truth of the matter for me is, this horse is not a true contender....I believe that he is a contender from a specualtion point of view....As in "he will pick up the pieces of a busted pace"...But, that is just speculation, and I wouldn't like this horse at almost any price based on that assumption, that he could "perhaps" win this race because he is a closer, and a closer is a good thing when there is an implied busted pace...(which never materialized btw)...

So Traynor, if we were on the same handicapping team, we would be slugging it out on this one, I think....LL is a proven failure from outside posts, he has no appreciable or tactile early speed, and hasn't any class advantage, and is in the worst post that you can have at the Meadows....How is this guy a contender ?...

I know that you say you are a success and all, and based on the "quality" of your posts, I have no reason to doubt that....But I think that I have you by the "cajones" on this one, and I want to bust them a bit....I gotta know why you think that this particular horse may have been a strong play at MAO (whatever they are)....I thought this horse was a typical Outside Post "sucker play"....You know the ones that have been eating at my otherwise good profits, all these years....

I need to know this....please..."touche"

best,

[traynor]

Ok Traynor, enlighten me please, as I am dying to know....What would the acceptable MAO on this horse be.....in each slot....

The truth of the matter for me is, this horse is not a true contender....I believe that he is a contender from a specualtion point of view....As in "he will pick up the pieces of a busted pace"...But, that is just speculation, and I wouldn't like this horse at almost any price based on that assumption, that he could "perhaps" win this race because he is a closer, and a closer is a good thing when there is an implied busted pace...(which never materialized btw)...

So Traynor, if we were on the same handicapping team, we would be slugging it out on this one, I think....LL is a proven failure from outside posts, he has no appreciable or tactile early speed, and hasn't any class advantage, and is in the worst post that you can have at the Meadows....How is this guy a contender ?...

I know that you say you are a success and all, and based on the "quality" of your posts, I have no reason to doubt that....But I think that I have you by the "cajones" on this one, and I want to bust them a bit....I gotta know why you think that this particular horse may have been a strong play at MAO (whatever they are)....I thought this horse was a typical Outside Post "sucker play"....You know the ones that have been eating at my otherwise good profits, all these years....

I need to know this....please..."touche"

best,


Sorry, I don't play woulda, coulda, shoulda after the fact. I was responding to another post, and my comments were not intended for any other purpose.

[LottaKash]

Sorry, I don't play woulda, coulda, shoulda after the fact. I was responding to another post, and my comments were not intended for any other purpose.

Traynor, I don't think you understood my post as I intended....It's not a woulda coulda thing with me, I was just trying to get some information from you about why you thought this was a good horse at MAO....I was hoping to learn something from you...You know, how you do things, the sharing...The Handicapping part....

The value and the overlays, I get that part, in spades....It is "everything", if you want to win long term.....

best,




best,

[traynor]

Traynor, I don't think you understood my post as I intended....It's not a woulda coulda thing with me, I was just trying to get some information from you about why you thought this was a good horse at MAO....I was hoping to learn something from you...You know, how you do things, the sharing...The Handicapping part....

The value and the overlays, I get that part, in spades....It is "everything", if you want to win long term.....

best,




best,

Perhaps it would clarify to look at the time of my posting. Lucky Lime had already finished dead last. If I were interested in dazzling anyone with my "expertise" I would probably not declare my preference for a horse that had already finished dead last in the race. As the favorite, no less. Someone else must have seen something there.

[LottaKash]

Perhaps it would clarify to look at the time of my posting. Lucky Lime had already finished dead last. If I were interested in dazzling anyone with my "expertise" I would probably not declare my preference for a horse that had already finished dead last in the race. As the favorite, no less. Someone else must have seen something there.

Traynor, again, this is what you said....:"The basic setup of this race indicated Lucky Lime as the best value bet, but not at 5/2".....The outcome is irrelevant to me, this is horse racing....

Ok not @5/2...What I was prodding you to tell us was, what made LL a value bet....What did you see that I didn't....He was a loser from the outside posts, so what was your line of thinking ?...Speculation of a busted pace ? or do you think that this horse had "the goods" to win despite his huge post disadvantage, but why ?...I would just like to know what your thoughts were, about this particular horse's qualifications, in this spot...is all...

I guess that you aren't going to give any handicapping secrets away to anyone....haha.. That's ok..

best,

[traynor]

Traynor, again, this is what you said....:"The basic setup of this race indicated Lucky Lime as the best value bet, but not at 5/2".....The outcome is irrelevant to me, this is horse racing....

Ok not @5/2...What I was prodding you to tell us was, what made LL a value bet....What did you see that I didn't....He was a loser from the outside posts, so what was your line of thinking ?...Speculation of a busted pace ? or do you think that this horse had "the goods" to win despite his huge post disadvantage, but why ?...I would just like to know what your thoughts were, about this particular horse's qualifications, in this spot...is all...

I guess that you aren't going to give any handicapping secrets away to anyone....haha.. That's ok..

best,

I think it would probably be more interesting (and probably more useful) to discover why Lucky Lime went off as the favorite. Everyone has different criteria for selecting wagers. Apparently quite a few people selected Lucky Lime as a decent win bet. No big surprise there--Lucky Lime was a good bet to win.

My original comment about Lucky Lime was more about the type of suggested wager--an up and back exacta wheel--than it was about the fine points of what Lucky Lime has or has not done, or what specific indicators of potential improvement Lucky Lime exhibited.

Why? Because despite occasional windfalls, exacta wheels with a single entry to win and place are one of the absolute worst bets going, and will generally empty a bettor's pockets faster than any other form of wagering. There were eight other entries in the race with Luck Lime. Lucky Lime--and the top three finishers--all went off at odds of less than 4/1.

Making 16 bets (that all lose) in the hope of "making a score" is the type of betting that causes a lot of people to dump a lot of money really fast, then to declare that the races are either fixed or unbeatable. Betting exactas is a major source of profit for professional bettors. I have yet to encounter even one who considered an exacta wheel (and reverse wheel) as a reasonable wagering strategy.

[mrroyboy]

Those of you who may be new to this site should knew something. Disagreeing with John(lotta kash) is usually a big mistake!!!

[traynor]

Those of you who may be new to this site should knew something. Disagreeing with John(lotta kash) is usually a big mistake!!!

That may be so. However, I see no reason to be diverted into an irrelevent side issue that is unrelated to the primary intent of the comment I posted.

If someone wants to grab my "cajones," a substantial amount of foreplay is mandatory. Unless it is Paris Hilton, of course.

[melman]

Traynor--Well I'm not new to this site and feel free to keep starting great threads. Very enjoyable and informative. Thanks.
p.s. I don't always agree with everything your saying either. :) That's the very nature of horse players.

[LottaKash]

If someone wants to grab my "cajones," a substantial amount of foreplay is mandatory. Unless it is Paris Hilton, of course.


Paris Hilton, only at 10/1 or higher, for me....She is a chronic breaker and just gives her trainer fits.......

best,

[melman]

Hey Ray guess who come back today and wins paying $103> Yup that proven fighter Chase's Legascy. :lol: This is a redboard but so what, who cares I'm entitled. :) Hey at least I did post a $163 winner. :) Plus guess who is coming back to the starting lineup for the Phillies. -----Yup CHASE Utley. :) Just a fellow old geezer feeling frisky. :)

[mrroyboy]

Here is the thing. The overlay/value theory is right but very hard to do. And in Harness Racing more than t-breds "money talks" Horses that are "dead on the board" in harness racing usual are.

[Ray2000]

mel

It's OK by me to redboard if you pay the fine :D

In this case, the fine was posting Beckys Dreamboat ($7 place) and saving my exacta.

thx and hope you had a little on that 50/1 :ThmbUp:


something hunter should be pensive about ....15 mil vs his paltry 10 mil


Pokie R5 key 8 w/ 631 in 50¢ tri and bx 8631 in 10¢ super