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tracksim
06-11-2012, 07:38 AM
We were asked to post the full card vs just a few picks so here is a full PARX card from the MEMBERS section

2012-06-11
http://tracksim.com/images/logo.jpg
Race:1


6 ~ HENCEFORTH
Win: 23.94%Place: 20.08%Show: 17.04%Other: 38.93%

1 ~ SEATTLE LOUIE
Win: 18.39%Place: 14.49%Show: 15.07%Other: 52.04%

7 ~ SURPRISE STORM
Win: 18.13%Place: 12.75%Show: 12.97%Other: 56.15%

4 ~ WINNING DRIVE
Win: 16.25%Place: 22.51%Show: 22.37%Other: 38.87%

5 ~ DALKEITH RIDGE
Win: 11.79%Place: 12.25%Show: 11.71%Other: 64.25%

3 ~ TWO BRASH
Win: 9.28%Place: 13.47%Show: 14.93%Other: 62.32%

2 ~ HAMMERING BUCKEYE
Win: 2.22%Place: 4.44%Show: 5.9%Other: 87.43%
================================================

Race:2


2 ~ CHASEMYBLUESAWAY
Win: 51.93%Place: 27.78%Show: 13.72%Other: 6.57%

1 ~ ELIZABETH LANE
Win: 14.43%Place: 26.25%Show: 28.27%Other: 31.05%

3 ~ OH RAMBLIN ROSE
Win: 13.91%Place: 12.85%Show: 15.43%Other: 57.81%

5 ~ IVY GIRL
Win: 9.64%Place: 12.38%Show: 10.27%Other: 67.71%

4 ~ RABIOSA
Win: 6.35%Place: 11.3%Show: 12.88%Other: 69.47%

6 ~ CUVEE JONES
Win: 3.42%Place: 7.24%Show: 12.9%Other: 76.44%

8 ~ DON'TMESSW'LOUISA
Win: 0.31%Place: 1.8%Show: 4.07%Other: 93.82%

7 ~ LOCK THE DOOR
Win: 0.01%Place: 0.4%Show: 2.46%Other: 97.13%



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race:3


3 ~ JERSEY BROTHER
Win: 20.76%Place: 12.48%Show: 10.12%Other: 56.64%

6 ~ DANCE SAFELY
Win: 19.93%Place: 16.16%Show: 13.84%Other: 50.08%

4 ~ PERKY JUGE
Win: 19.18%Place: 14.58%Show: 12.3%Other: 53.94%

8 ~ BONA FIDE
Win: 18.72%Place: 23%Show: 19.86%Other: 38.42%

2 ~ NAUGHTY AND BOLD
Win: 10.33%Place: 12.83%Show: 15.9%Other: 60.94%

1 ~ GRANDSTANDER
Win: 6.77%Place: 12.4%Show: 16.96%Other: 63.86%

7 ~ AWESOME REVIEW
Win: 2.27%Place: 4.57%Show: 6.14%Other: 87.02%

5 ~ BELIEVE IN WEST
Win: 2.03%Place: 3.98%Show: 4.88%Other: 89.12%
=============================================

Race:4


4 ~ FREUDIAN DILEMMA
Win: 38.15%Place: 21.95%Show: 13.22%Other: 26.68%

2 ~ BRANDONS BEACH
Win: 29.1%Place: 18.43%Show: 14.02%Other: 38.45%

3 ~ DON'S HONOUR
Win: 12.81%Place: 17.77%Show: 18.7%Other: 50.72%

1 ~ TOP THE PODIUM
Win: 12.28%Place: 21.67%Show: 22.48%Other: 43.56%

5 ~ QUEPOS
Win: 4.6%Place: 11.42%Show: 16.9%Other: 67.08%

7 ~ ESPORON
Win: 2.89%Place: 7.54%Show: 10.85%Other: 78.72%

6 ~ SWEET BERNIE
Win: 0.16%Place: 1.22%Show: 3.84%Other: 94.78%



================================================

Race:5


6 ~ RAGE OF AQUARIUS
Win: 71.06%Place: 22.62%Show: 5.18%Other: 1.14%

1 ~ ADELICATE MISS
Win: 12.98%Place: 8.14%Show: 8.35%Other: 70.52%

2 ~ MARCIANNIE
Win: 9.75%Place: 17.99%Show: 10.36%Other: 61.9%

5 ~ NANSEEYOUIN HEAVEN
Win: 3.16%Place: 25.45%Show: 30.82%Other: 40.56%

3 ~ RAIDERS FAN
Win: 1.62%Place: 9.8%Show: 14.83%Other: 73.75%

7 ~ SISTER FRIEND
Win: 1.15%Place: 6.89%Show: 9.68%Other: 82.28%

4 ~ ANGEL'S VISION
Win: 0.27%Place: 9.11%Show: 20.78%Other: 69.84%



=========================================


Race:6


5 ~ TRUE FEELINGS
Win: 51.5%Place: 25.7%Show: 13.16%Other: 9.64%

6 ~ TERRINIQUA
Win: 18.88%Place: 12.95%Show: 14.37%Other: 53.8%

2 ~ MS. LYDIAN
Win: 15.56%Place: 31.86%Show: 27.98%Other: 24.61%

4 ~ J K L'S LEGACY
Win: 7.43%Place: 11.63%Show: 11.03%Other: 69.91%

3 ~ LADDER TO THE MOON
Win: 3.4%Place: 8.04%Show: 16.06%Other: 72.5%

1 ~ VILLETTE
Win: 3.24%Place: 9.83%Show: 17.39%Other: 69.54%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race:7


5 ~ DICED N SLICED
Win: 30.83%Place: 18.1%Show: 12.92%Other: 38.15%

3 ~ PRAIRIE TRIP
Win: 21.84%Place: 15.59%Show: 13.05%Other: 49.52%

2 ~ NORTHERN BERKSHIRE
Win: 15.3%Place: 21.04%Show: 20.96%Other: 42.69%

9 ~ SILVER PAYDAY
Win: 11.63%Place: 12.47%Show: 12.29%Other: 63.61%

1 ~ SUAVE ROYALTY
Win: 8.17%Place: 9.67%Show: 10.08%Other: 72.08%

4 ~ ATHENE
Win: 5.9%Place: 8.85%Show: 9.18%Other: 76.08%

7 ~ GETTING BOLD
Win: 3.13%Place: 6.71%Show: 10.24%Other: 79.92%

8 ~ DOMESTICALISTA
Win: 2.57%Place: 4.39%Show: 4.1%Other: 88.94%

6 ~ KIMBERLEY DIAMOND
Win: 0.62%Place: 3.18%Show: 7.19%Other: 89.01%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Race:8


12 ~ PARABOLA
Win: 38.08%Place: 17.54%Show: 12.22%Other: 32.16%

5 ~ BERRY BERRY BUENO
Win: 18.09%Place: 15.92%Show: 12.14%Other: 53.84%

4 ~ FIVE FOR LOVE
Win: 17.66%Place: 18.18%Show: 14.78%Other: 49.38%

8 ~ WORLD RECORD
Win: 11.06%Place: 18.99%Show: 19.34%Other: 50.62%

10 ~ BLUE LIGHT SPECIAL
Win: 10.24%Place: 15.59%Show: 14.43%Other: 59.74%

11 ~ SWASHBUCKLER
Win: 3.82%Place: 7.73%Show: 11.17%Other: 77.28%

9 ~ SCARLET AND GOLD
Win: 0.44%Place: 2.29%Show: 4.83%Other: 92.43%

3 ~ FOURLEAF STREET
Win: 0.31%Place: 1.56%Show: 4.05%Other: 94.08%

2 ~ WILD AND WILEY
Win: 0.15%Place: 1.1%Show: 3.3%Other: 95.46%

1 ~ FREE ME
Win: 0.11%Place: 0.72%Show: 2.14%Other: 97.04%

7 ~ FIVE GUNS WEST
Win: 0.02%Place: 0.34%Show: 1.17%Other: 98.47%

6 ~ O WHEN THE SAINTS
Win: 0%Place: 0.06%Show: 0.43%Other: 99.51%
===============================================


Race:9


3 ~ LIVINGSTON STREET
Win: 26.62%Place: 23.42%Show: 18.45%Other: 31.51%

4 ~ CANTONIC
Win: 19.41%Place: 13.86%Show: 11.31%Other: 55.42%

1 ~ GRAND CASH
Win: 15.94%Place: 12.51%Show: 13.42%Other: 58.13%

7 ~ HAMPTON BAYS SUN
Win: 13.03%Place: 14.1%Show: 15.88%Other: 57%

2 ~ COFFEE BAR
Win: 9.9%Place: 13.55%Show: 14.09%Other: 62.46%

5 ~ MILLENNIUM LAKES
Win: 8.91%Place: 9.13%Show: 9%Other: 72.96%

6 ~ FORTISSI MORE
Win: 6.19%Place: 13.43%Show: 17.86%Other: 62.52%

================================================

Race:10


7 ~ LAST BOOT
Win: 76.88%Place: 16.92%Show: 4.44%Other: 1.75%

1 ~ MAXIMUS FITZ
Win: 9.27%Place: 11.67%Show: 6.9%Other: 72.16%

4 ~ INDIAN POW WOW
Win: 8.74%Place: 27.64%Show: 20.39%Other: 43.24%

3 ~ DANCING HEART
Win: 3.55%Place: 18.82%Show: 18.48%Other: 59.15%

8 ~ FLEON
Win: 0.62%Place: 9.76%Show: 18.24%Other: 71.39%

9 ~ ROCKET BOY
Win: 0.45%Place: 6.04%Show: 9.34%Other: 84.17%

12 ~ CRAFTY BOBBI
Win: 0.23%Place: 3.73%Show: 6.72%Other: 89.32%

2 ~ I'M TAPPED OUT
Win: 0.18%Place: 2.62%Show: 5.88%Other: 91.33%

10 ~ KING OF SWING
Win: 0.08%Place: 2.72%Show: 9.02%Other: 88.18%

11 ~ MR. MONTANA
Win: 0%Place: 0%Show: 0%Other: 100%

5 ~ BEAR TRACKS
Win: 0%Place: 0.04%Show: 0.2%Other: 99.76%

6 ~ COMPELLING STAR
Win: 0%Place: 0.06%Show: 0.4%Other: 99.54%
===============================================

TexasDolly
06-11-2012, 10:12 AM
Hi Tracksim,
Do these picks actually win at the listed % and if so, what
size samples do the %'s come from?
Thank you,
TD

tracksim
06-12-2012, 09:02 AM
Texas Dolly,

What we do is to extract what we use to handicap from the data files we get. That information is then used to run 50,000 simulations on the race. It gives us the total number of times a horse finishes in each position which we then convert into a percentage. Thats what goes onto the website. To date the largest 1st pick horse to win paid $74.90. Sometimes it can be chalky and other times it picks nice longshots that run well.

If you have any more questions just let me know