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View Full Version : No more Dixie Union nonsense.


depalma113
06-09-2012, 06:47 PM
Union Rags takes care of that stuff.

Tom
06-09-2012, 06:51 PM
Gonna take more than one win to prove anything.

wisconsin
06-09-2012, 06:55 PM
Hat's off to Union Rags, but it isn't nonsense. Breeding stats matter, but glad you are happy with the ROI of this breeding beyond 9 furlongs. It was a gravy trip win, but at the end of the day, he got the distance.

gracwalk
06-09-2012, 07:10 PM
Hat's off to Union Rags, but it isn't nonsense. Breeding stats matter, but glad you are happy with the ROI of this breeding beyond 9 furlongs. It was a gravy trip win, but at the end of the day, he got the distance.


Union Rags, has Secretariat, in his bloodline.

depalma113
06-11-2012, 10:22 PM
Sarcasm people. Come on!

The horse plodded his way to a win and needed a bonehead ride by Smith to achieve it.

letswastemoney
06-12-2012, 01:04 AM
Don't all racehorses have some superhorse champion in their bloodline somewhere?

iceknight
06-12-2012, 09:46 AM
Sarcasm people. Come on!

The horse plodded his way to a win and needed a bonehead ride by Smith to achieve it. Actually JohnnyV did not give a great ride either. UR was caught up in the rail. If he had an opening earlier, UR would have moved faster on the stretch and won by a length or two. Watch for that happening in future races.

BlueChip@DRF
06-12-2012, 10:01 AM
Actually, Paynter ran very well - considering the threw a shoe at the start(?). Union Rags got the distance. You cannot blame him for the slow time as he was not the one who dictated the pace. He ran with the herd, bided his time, and got up when he had the chance.

iceknight
06-12-2012, 10:34 AM
Actually, Paynter ran very well - considering the threw a shoe at the start(?). Union Rags got the distance. You cannot blame him for the slow time as he was not the one who dictated the pace. He ran with the herd, bided his time, and got up when he had the chance.
Baffert seems confident to use words like "must"... your conjecture seems to be point to the opposite.. (of course, the start and the finish are close in a oval track that is the length of the race! :lol:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/70493/paynter-threw-shoe-in-belmont-baffert-says

Dahoss9698
06-12-2012, 10:39 AM
Actually JohnnyV did not give a great ride either. UR was caught up in the rail. If he had an opening earlier, UR would have moved faster on the stretch and won by a length or two. Watch for that happening in future races.

I thought Velazquez rode a great race. He saved ground and resisited the temptation to move prematurely. He actually had an opening pretty early into the stretch if you watch the head on, and Paynter was very game. The margin of victory wasn't because Union Rags couldn't get through. It was because Paynter dug in.

Tom
06-12-2012, 10:50 AM
Right after the race, Donna Brothers reported that Smith asked Johnny "Where were you? Where did you come from?"

If that is true, that is damn fine riding in my book. Smith was hearing Atigun coming outside and didn't know Johnny was inside waiting.....

iceknight
06-12-2012, 12:02 PM
I thought Velazquez rode a great race. He saved ground and resisited the temptation to move prematurely. He actually had an opening pretty early into the stretch if you watch the head on, and Paynter was very game. The margin of victory wasn't because Union Rags couldn't get through. It was because Paynter dug in. Well, I watched this overhead (http://www.bing.com/videos/watch/video/belmont-stakes-overhead-replay/6wokgu1?cpkey=09a91699-60c9-42af-8682-c01d5059413c%7C%7C%7C%7C) and after that formed my opinion. He did not have any earlier opening in that short time imo. I will take back my comment on JohnnyV though. He did ride great given the circumstances there.

Dahoss9698
06-12-2012, 12:27 PM
Well, I watched this overhead (http://www.bing.com/videos/watch/video/belmont-stakes-overhead-replay/6wokgu1?cpkey=09a91699-60c9-42af-8682-c01d5059413c%7C%7C%7C%7C) and after that formed my opinion. He did not have any earlier opening in that short time imo. I will take back my comment on JohnnyV though. He did ride great given the circumstances there.

Cool camera view. The head on is on the NYRA website under their video replay part of the site.

I'm not saying there was a huge hole. But even in link you posted, you can kind of see when they turn for home and Johnny is all out on Union Rags, Paynter is still a good length or so in front of him, but there is room to come through. it was just that Paynter was still in front. It's ahrd to tell either way.

I just don't agree that the margin of victory could have been much more than it was.

Robert Goren
06-12-2012, 12:47 PM
You can make the argument that "rags" shouldn't have got through but the fact remains when they were head to head "rags" got passed him. I bet "rags" and thought he got a terrible ride. I was lucky to win even though I had the best horse. It not often you get that lucky when your jockey gets your horse trapped down inside. Even when a hole opens, a lot of horses will not go through it. Neither will a lot of jockeys including some big names one. I, for one, do not blame Smith here . I have my doubts that he could have kept his horse on the rail no matter what he did. If a horse is the least bit tired, it has tendency to drift, generally out. Watch a bunch of head on shots and you will see that it happens all the time.

iceknight
06-12-2012, 02:00 PM
Cool camera view. Thanks. I personally sponsored that for all PA members (my premiums count don't they :) ) The head on is on the NYRA website under their video replay part of the site. thanks. Xpressbet does not have replays so this is good to know.
I just don't agree that the margin of victory could have been much more than it was.That is fine. Thanks for posting some nice picks that day.

Dahoss9698
06-12-2012, 02:22 PM
You can make the argument that "rags" shouldn't have got through but the fact remains when they were head to head "rags" got passed him. I bet "rags" and thought he got a terrible ride. I was lucky to win even though I had the best horse. It not often you get that lucky when your jockey gets your horse trapped down inside. Even when a hole opens, a lot of horses will not go through it. Neither will a lot of jockeys including some big names one. I, for one, do not blame Smith here . I have my doubts that he could have kept his horse on the rail no matter what he did. If a horse is the least bit tired, it has tendency to drift, generally out. Watch a bunch of head on shots and you will see that it happens all the time.

You thought Velazquez gave a terrible ride?

raybo
06-13-2012, 01:45 PM
Union Rags, has Secretariat, in his bloodline.

So, do many other horses. Secretariat's progeny has been disappointing, to say the least. The important thing to remember, regarding racing and breeding, is that not all good race horses produce good offspring. One must consider more than a sire or dam's racing record, one must consider their offsprings' racing records in order to assign value to a sire or dam concerning their breeding value.

One could breed the best racing sire with the best racing dam and they could produce horses that don't win. There is more work to breeding than that, if it was that easy, more good racing horses would be produced every year.

tucker6
06-13-2012, 09:50 PM
Secretariat's progeny has been disappointing, to say the least.
This is a particularly uneducated post. You disappoint me, to say the least.

turninforhome10
06-13-2012, 09:56 PM
This is a particularly uneducated post. You disappoint me, to say the least.
Maybe referring to Big Red as a Sire of Sires. Only way to make sense of it considering Secretariat has appeared in 60 stakes winners worldwide back in mid spring for this year alone.

raybo
06-13-2012, 10:51 PM
Maybe referring to Big Red as a Sire of Sires. Only way to make sense of it considering Secretariat has appeared in 60 stakes winners worldwide back in mid spring for this year alone.

I was referring to Secretariat's immediate offspring, as racers, not producers.
Sure, down the line, mixing of bloodlines change things, and some of his offspring have produced some winners of graded stakes races. But, my point was that just because a Secretariat, or a Mr Prospector, or a Northern Dancer appears in a horse's blood line, doesn't mean that that horse will win races.

turninforhome10
06-13-2012, 11:19 PM
I was referring to Secretariat's immediate offspring, as racers, not producers.
Sure, down the line, mixing of bloodlines change things, and some of his offspring have produced some winners of graded stakes races. But, my point was that just because a Secretariat, or a Mr Prospector, or a Northern Dancer appears in a horse's blood line, doesn't mean that that horse will win races.
Ray I just feel that breeding is the great equalizer of this game. If breeding the best could be patented, it would have been done along time ago. You just never know.

nijinski
06-14-2012, 12:52 AM
Ray I just feel that breeding is the great equalizer of this game. If breeding the best could be patented, it would have been done along time ago. You just never know.
Though he's less of a head case , as it appears . UR looks like he has a good
deal of the Nijinsky influence.

Steve R
06-14-2012, 09:55 AM
Hat's off to Union Rags, but it isn't nonsense. Breeding stats matter, but glad you are happy with the ROI of this breeding beyond 9 furlongs. It was a gravy trip win, but at the end of the day, he got the distance.
Not really. "Getting the distance" implies a performance in a competitive time at any given class level. A BSF of 96 vs a par of 106 suggests that no horse in the Belmont actually "got the distance". My own figures indicate the Belmont was at least five lengths below par. Of course, that is not unusual any longer in the Belmont (or the Derby, for that matter).

iceknight
06-14-2012, 11:01 AM
Not really. "Getting the distance" implies a performance in a competitive time at any given class level. A BSF of 96 vs a par of 106 suggests that no horse in the Belmont actually "got the distance". My own figures indicate the Belmont was at least five lengths below par. Of course, that is not unusual any longer in the Belmont (or the Derby, for that matter). How are "pars" drawn for the course? Is it a median based number?

wisconsin
06-14-2012, 12:03 PM
Not really. "Getting the distance" implies a performance in a competitive time at any given class level. A BSF of 96 vs a par of 106 suggests that no horse in the Belmont actually "got the distance". My own figures indicate the Belmont was at least five lengths below par. Of course, that is not unusual any longer in the Belmont (or the Derby, for that matter).


I sure feel the same way as you do about this whole abaility to get the distance thing. Unfortunatley, the historical implication will appear the same as any other list of horses winning the Belmont, and followers of Union Rags will have no trouble blowing their money on any runner of his who tries a longer distance at some point in the future.

Personally, I still would not touch any horse by Dixie Union going past the aformentioned 9 furlongs.

Steve R
06-14-2012, 12:47 PM
How are "pars" drawn for the course? Is it a median based number?
The Belmont Stakes has a history that allows you to compare performances. I didn't see it as quite as bad a race as Beyer did, but it was several lengths below historical standards. The average time of the Belmont on a fast track since the mid-1980s is 2:28.2, so 2:30.2 pretty much sucks even considering reasonable differences in the variant. The median time since then is 2:28.1. When a fairly-run Grade 1 is won by a horse in a time consistent with a far lower class level, there is a serious issue of "getting the distance" IMO. For example, a two-second difference at 12f at Belmont Park is the difference between a graded stakes winner and a $14K claimer. I would argue that on the day, no starter actually "stayed" the mile and a half.

gracwalk
06-14-2012, 12:56 PM
So, do many other horses. Secretariat's progeny has been disappointing, to say the least. The important thing to remember, regarding racing and breeding, is that not all good race horses produce good offspring. One must consider more than a sire or dam's racing record, one must consider their offsprings' racing records in order to assign value to a sire or dam concerning their breeding value.

One could breed the best racing sire with the best racing dam and they could produce horses that don't win. There is more work to breeding than that, if it was that easy, more good racing horses would be produced every year.


I understand what you are saying about breeding but I was just commenting that Union Rags, had Secretariat, in his bloodline.

Secretariat, is my favor racehorse imo, there will only be one Secretariat, never to be duplicated.

turninforhome10
06-14-2012, 12:59 PM
I understand what you are saying about breeding but I was just commenting that Union Rags, had Secretariat, in his bloodline.
So do 53% of the Stakes winners in NA this year.

nijinski
06-14-2012, 05:48 PM
Not really. "Getting the distance" implies a performance in a competitive time at any given class level. A BSF of 96 vs a par of 106 suggests that no horse in the Belmont actually "got the distance". My own figures indicate the Belmont was at least five lengths below par. Of course, that is not unusual any longer in the Belmont (or the Derby, for that matter).

Can you tell me if Omaha and Gallant Fox got the distance , serious question?

turninforhome10
06-14-2012, 07:23 PM
Can you tell me if Omaha and Gallant Fox got the distance , serious question?
They would be claimers according to Steve R's rules.So would Whirlaway and Blue Larkspur. All this time I thought they were great horses now I realize they were actually cheap claimers that could not stay.

tucker6
06-15-2012, 12:18 AM
They would be claimers according to Steve R's rules.So would Whirlaway and Blue Larkspur. All this time I thought they were great horses now I realize they were actually cheap claimers that could not stay.
dfferent eras and different racing methodologies, but you already knew that. Steve R is correct. No one got the distance in the 2012 Belmont. It was a poor man's Gr1 race.

turninforhome10
06-15-2012, 12:31 AM
Who's vernacular are we speaking when we say they did not "get the distance". I understand what you guys are saying but who's idea is this?

nijinski
06-15-2012, 12:53 AM
Who's vernacular are we speaking when we say they did not "get the distance". I understand what you guys are saying but who's idea is this?
I believe we had the starting date wirh Whirlaway. I think his time needs to be dissected
Assault didn't run memorable times either .
I guess he didn't really run the mile and a quarter Derby come to think of it, lol.

nijinski
06-15-2012, 12:55 AM
They would be claimers according to Steve R's rules.So would Whirlaway and Blue Larkspur. All this time I thought they were great horses now I realize they were actually cheap claimers that could not stay.
Good one !

turninforhome10
06-15-2012, 01:25 AM
I believe we had the starting date wirh Whirlaway. I think his time needs to be dissected
Assault didn't run memorable times either .
I guess he didn't really run the mile and a quarter Derby come to think of it, lol.
Her is the link to Whilaway's chart. I second your notion Nijinski
http://www.belmontstakes.com/UserFiles/file/1941.pdf
4 horse race, won with speed in reserve. How fast did he need to run to win easily?

nijinski
06-15-2012, 02:16 AM
I think what I find annoying here is that the idea that the horse didn't run the distance is hard to envision at this point. Maybe if he was blowing real hard and sweating bullets and stumbling all over the place , I 'd buy it.
Yes agreed , time of the race wasn't fast. No doubt , it's probably not the ideal distance for him either. In fact over the years , graded stakes have been shortened . So you likely won't have this long a route to argue about . Doesn't mean he can't go past 9 furlings . He did !

Turningforhome and myself listed some great horses from TC history , that ran some slow Belmonts and one had a very slow Derby . Not comparing UR with these champions . Just wondering if at this distance his slow time is that vital.

I'd still take a chance with him if he trains up to his future races well.
He's been doing it since he was two and he's still around and winning.

turninforhome10
06-15-2012, 02:32 AM
Looking at the big picture for Dixie Union and the informal records at pedigree query
http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/dixie+union
and noticing that Union Rags has a full brother who struggled to win 3 races and best effort was third in stakes going 5.5 fur.


Looking at some of Dixie Union's Top earners
Union Rags- Carries Nijinsky daughter
Grasshopper- Carries Nijinsky daughter
Turf War- Carries Nijinsky daughter
Dixie Strike- Carries Nijinsky through Green Dancer
High Cotton- carries the very close Nijinsky relative The Minstrel
All are out of Mr Propsector line mares.
Some people would call this a nick

After trying several different ways of trying to explain how UR got 12 fur to myself. THe only explanation I can come up with is the second mating with Dixie Union resulted in a sort of performance mutation of the breed. It can happen sometimes with a second mating. Sir Gaylord to Secretariat comes to mind. No comparing the two by any means. But UR is a aberrational to the true Dixie Union types. Not that you can breed to Dixie Union as he is deceased, but this might not happen again in as many matings as previous. I doubt seriously that it fits with the bodytype of horse he threw. UR is a freak in the sense that he does to conform to the phenotype of his Sire or siblings.
I really feel UR is a throwback to Nijinsky. Look at how much he looks like his maternal grandsire Scary even the same socks
http://www.chef-de-race.com/images/Nijinsky_II.jpg
http://ratherrapid.blogspot.com/2012/03/union-rag.html
He might be the quality of Nijinsky but he sure fits the phenotype.
All this being said, the credibility of the field he beat is the big question to me. Ran out of Grade 3 yos by the Belmont this year. Running him at the Spa is probably what will happen and he will come up short again. Point for the Jockey Club Gold Cup and beat elders on a track he loves and he might have a better shot at some kind of cred for 3yo of year. Crazy? Think about it. Does IHA have 3yo of the year locked up?
I like this horse but I see the whole thing as a horse who loves to go long at Belmont. Call me crazy.
Ironic Nijinksy?

nijinski
06-15-2012, 03:54 AM
Looking at the big picture for Dixie Union and the informal records at pedigree query
http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/dixie+union
and noticing that Union Rags has a full brother who struggled to win 3 races and best effort was third in stakes going 5.5 fur.


Looking at some of Dixie Union's Top earners
Union Rags- Carries Nijinsky daughter
Grasshopper- Carries Nijinsky daughter
Turf War- Carries Nijinsky daughter
Dixie Strike- Carries Nijinsky through Green Dancer
High Cotton- carries the very close Nijinsky relative The Minstrel
All are out of Mr Propsector line mares.
Some people would call this a nick

After trying several different ways of trying to explain how UR got 12 fur to myself. THe only explanation I can come up with is the second mating with Dixie Union resulted in a sort of performance mutation of the breed. It can happen sometimes with a second mating. Sir Gaylord to Secretariat comes to mind. No comparing the two by any means. But UR is a aberrational to the true Dixie Union types. Not that you can breed to Dixie Union as he is deceased, but this might not happen again in as many matings as previous. I doubt seriously that it fits with the bodytype of horse he threw. UR is a freak in the sense that he does to conform to the phenotype of his Sire or siblings.
I really feel UR is a throwback to Nijinsky. Look at how much he looks like his maternal grandsire Scary even the same socks
http://www.chef-de-race.com/images/Nijinsky_II.jpg
http://ratherrapid.blogspot.com/2012/03/union-rag.html
He might be the quality of Nijinsky but he sure fits the phenotype.
All this being said, the credibility of the field he beat is the big question to me. Ran out of Grade 3 yos by the Belmont this year. Running him at the Spa is probably what will happen and he will come up short again. Point for the Jockey Club Gold Cup and beat elders on a track he loves and he might have a better shot at some kind of cred for 3yo of year. Crazy? Think about it. Does IHA have 3yo of the year locked up?
I like this horse but I see the whole thing as a horse who loves to go long at Belmont. Call me crazy.
Ironic Nijinksy?
It's been too long since I met Terps his Grand Dam ,daughter of Nijinsky .
I thought he resembled her , the barrel , she's been called. Big girl ran on the grass, long routes..
Saratoga in the slop , he relished at two . They get a good deal if that some seasons. He really never had to take his track with him. Just needs to stay out of trouble .

CincyHorseplayer
06-15-2012, 07:37 AM
Looking at the big picture for Dixie Union and the informal records at pedigree query
http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/dixie+union
and noticing that Union Rags has a full brother who struggled to win 3 races and best effort was third in stakes going 5.5 fur.


Looking at some of Dixie Union's Top earners
Union Rags- Carries Nijinsky daughter
Grasshopper- Carries Nijinsky daughter
Turf War- Carries Nijinsky daughter
Dixie Strike- Carries Nijinsky through Green Dancer
High Cotton- carries the very close Nijinsky relative The Minstrel
All are out of Mr Propsector line mares.
Some people would call this a nick

After trying several different ways of trying to explain how UR got 12 fur to myself. THe only explanation I can come up with is the second mating with Dixie Union resulted in a sort of performance mutation of the breed. It can happen sometimes with a second mating. Sir Gaylord to Secretariat comes to mind. No comparing the two by any means. But UR is a aberrational to the true Dixie Union types. Not that you can breed to Dixie Union as he is deceased, but this might not happen again in as many matings as previous. I doubt seriously that it fits with the bodytype of horse he threw. UR is a freak in the sense that he does to conform to the phenotype of his Sire or siblings.
I really feel UR is a throwback to Nijinsky. Look at how much he looks like his maternal grandsire Scary even the same socks
http://www.chef-de-race.com/images/Nijinsky_II.jpg
http://ratherrapid.blogspot.com/2012/03/union-rag.html
He might be the quality of Nijinsky but he sure fits the phenotype.
All this being said, the credibility of the field he beat is the big question to me. Ran out of Grade 3 yos by the Belmont this year. Running him at the Spa is probably what will happen and he will come up short again. Point for the Jockey Club Gold Cup and beat elders on a track he loves and he might have a better shot at some kind of cred for 3yo of year. Crazy? Think about it. Does IHA have 3yo of the year locked up?
I like this horse but I see the whole thing as a horse who loves to go long at Belmont. Call me crazy.
Ironic Nijinksy?

Nice research.Very interesting.That photo comparison is scary close.:ThmbUp:

turninforhome10
06-15-2012, 09:56 AM
It's been too long since I met Terps his Grand Dam ,daughter of Nijinsky .
I thought he resembled her , the barrel , she's been called. Big girl ran on the grass, long routes..
Saratoga in the slop , he relished at two . They get a good deal if that some seasons. He really never had to take his track with him. Just needs to stay out of trouble .
Your right. I remember the slop win and bet him with both fists that day. He just reminds me of a 1972 Cadillac convertible I had. I could cruise at 110 mph very comfortably on the interstate , but stopping and starting in the city was terrible.

His grandmama was a monster grass horse as you say. Woody Stephens had a tiger in her. She set the track record at Med for 11fur grass stopping the timer at 2:13.0 for 11fur. I scoured the internet for a picture and strike out.

Steve R
06-15-2012, 03:38 PM
They would be claimers according to Steve R's rules.So would Whirlaway and Blue Larkspur. All this time I thought they were great horses now I realize they were actually cheap claimers that could not stay.
Dumb comment. Omaha won the Belmont with a SR+TV of 106, "easily". Gallant Fox with a SR-TV of 102, "speed in reserve". Whirlaway with a SR+TV of 104, "speed to spare". Union Rags? SR+TV of 92, "driving". Couple that with the 96 BSF and you have an excellent example of a horse winning a race at a given distance but not actually "getting the distance". Lord Avie's trainer, Danny Perlsweig, said it best many years ago when he observed that a horse can win at any distance if you give it enough time. That's probably a subtlety you can't grasp.

turninforhome10
06-15-2012, 03:52 PM
Dumb comment. Omaha won the Belmont with a SR+TV of 106, "easily". Gallant Fox with a SR-TV of 102, "speed in reserve". Whirlaway with a SR+TV of 104, "speed to spare". Union Rags? SR+TV of 92, "driving". Couple that with the 96 BSF and you have an excellent example of a horse winning a race at a given distance but not actually "getting the distance". Lord Avie's trainer, Danny Perlsweig, said it best many years ago when he observed that a horse can win at any distance if you give it enough time. That's probably a subtlety you can't grasp.
I understand your point and can give Commendable as an example of which you speak. Just wanted the horse to get a little thunder and got a little defensive.
Sometimes it boils down to finding the right race with the right field to enhance a running style. UR Belmont might not have been one of the fastest, but the horse showed some heart staying on the rail.

Steve R
06-15-2012, 04:08 PM
I understand your point and can give Commendable as an example of which you speak. Just wanted the horse to get a little thunder and got a little defensive.
Sometimes it boils down to finding the right race with the right field to enhance a running style. UR Belmont might not have been one of the fastest, but the horse showed some heart staying on the rail.
Definitely showed heart, which he did on occasion at two as well. But another way to put his Belmont in perspective may be this. Since 1983 the average 6f split of Belmont winners on a fast track is 1:13.2. Their last 6f averaged 1:15.1. Union Rags got the first 6f of his Belmont in 1:14.4 and still ran the last 6f in 1:15.3 without a foot of lost ground along the way. More than a second slower than the average Belmont winner over 6f but still slower over the last 6f. Imagine how much slower he would have finished had he gone over a second faster early. IMO that's hardly "getting the distance".

iceknight
06-15-2012, 04:15 PM
Definitely showed heart, which he did on occasion at two as well. But another way to put his Belmont in perspective may be this. Since 1983 the average 6f split of Belmont winners on a fast track is 1:12.2. Their last 6f averaged 1:15.1. Union Rags got the first 6f of his Belmont in 1:14.4 and still ran the last 6f in 1:15.3 without a foot of lost ground along the way. More than two seconds slower than the average Belmont winner over 6f but still slower over the last 6f. Imagine how much slower he would have finished had he gone two seconds faster early. IMO that's hardly "getting the distance". Now that's a dumb comment. how do you know that the horse is going to slow down at the end? Besides the reason i am using your choice of words is to point out that you are just shooting a bunch of jargon, numbers etc.. which most economic modelers also do and miss black swan events. have you heard of "herd movement"..Paynter(smith) was leading the herd at a slow pace and all the jockeys followed. No one tried to pull an Elliot and risk being run down at the end. UR and JohnnyV simply did well enough to cross Paynter close to the wire. But they were also bottled up inside for a while....UR did not lose ground but was just pacing behind the leaders. If he had pushed earlier, he would have had to either split horses or just clip heels with ones in front. If you can predict everything so accurately i am sure you have a 90% win accuracy on ur bets.

tucker6
06-15-2012, 04:21 PM
Now that's a dumb comment. how do you know that the horse is going to slow down at the end?
So, you believe that if a horse expends much more energy up front, he is unlikely to lose any energy on the back side of the race? That does not compute.

Sysonby
06-15-2012, 05:19 PM
Now that's a dumb comment. how do you know that the horse is going to slow down at the end? Besides the reason i am using your choice of words is to point out that you are just shooting a bunch of jargon, numbers etc.. which most economic modelers also do and miss black swan events. have you heard of "herd movement"..Paynter(smith) was leading the herd at a slow pace and all the jockeys followed. No one tried to pull an Elliot and risk being run down at the end. UR and JohnnyV simply did well enough to cross Paynter close to the wire. But they were also bottled up inside for a while....UR did not lose ground but was just pacing behind the leaders. If he had pushed earlier, he would have had to either split horses or just clip heels with ones in front. If you can predict everything so accurately i am sure you have a 90% win accuracy on ur bets.

"pull an Elliott" Please watch S.J.'s Belmont again, he was not holdable. The training he'd received to rate went out the window and Elliott finally let him go because he was using all his energy fighting his jockey at that point. It was unfortunate but not Elliott's fault. Sorry, I know this is off topic but I've seen comments like this a few times lately and it's just not what happened.

5k-claim
06-15-2012, 06:06 PM
... UR and JohnnyV simply did well enough to cross Paynter close to the wire. If nothing else, can we at least say that UR "got the distance" in the Belmont better than any of the other 25,000 foals from his crop?

The object going into a race is to beat the other horses to the finish line. Cash the check.

UR did that. It's good enough for me.

.

iceknight
06-15-2012, 11:12 PM
"pull an Elliott" Please watch S.J.'s Belmont again, he was not holdable. The training he'd received to rate went out the window and Elliott finally let him go because he was using all his energy fighting his jockey at that point. It was unfortunate but not Elliott's fault. Sorry, I know this is off topic but I've seen comments like this a few times lately and it's just not what happened. Actually I watched SJ's race for the first time a few days ago. However, maybe I should take back the comment about S. Elliott. I cannot say with surety that it was only the jockey's fault.

@tucker... I believe UR had/has energy to have gone faster earlier and still hold to finish well. In this case we know that they did not go fast for the whole race. UR did well to sneak thru in the final yards and win. And that got him the trophy! Steve missed how the pace scenario evolved AND how UR was stuck in the rail. It's not like he was "saving ground" and had room to go wide and launch a bid. UR was lucky to get first but he can do better and I think he will do better in the summer races.

turninforhome10
06-16-2012, 08:56 AM
After doing a Tesio scan on this years TC contenders, I found this
A find presence in trees report looked for all horses carrying Mr Prospector and Nijinsky together and from all horses back to Jan you get this
I'll Have Another
Union Rags
Bodiemeister
Unstoppable U (Sire Only)
Notables from the cross 1995-2002 (Old DB)
Broken Vow, Burning Roma, Essence of Dubai,Exchange Rate,Five Star Day,Hawk Wing,High Yield, Johannesburg, La Ville Rouge(dam of Barbaro), Leelanau, Minardi, Siphonic, Smok n Frolic, Spain, among others.

nijinski
06-16-2012, 01:35 PM
After doing a Tesio scan on this years TC contenders, I found this
A find presence in trees report looked for all horses carrying Mr Prospector and Nijinsky together and from all horses back to Jan you get this
I'll Have Another
Union Rags
Bodiemeister
Unstoppable U (Sire Only)
Notables from the cross 1995-2002 (Old DB)
Broken Vow, Burning Roma, Essence of Dubai,Exchange Rate,Five Star Day,Hawk Wing,High Yield, Johannesburg, La Ville Rouge(dam of Barbaro), Leelanau, Minardi, Siphonic, Smok n Frolic, Spain, among others.
Always good input , thanks.
Take a peek at Czaravich at pq had the white stockings hind , up to his hocks .
De La Rose another fav from him .
They had no idea what they did when they destroyed Ferdinand overseas , Ugh .