Pace Advantage Greatest Hits

[maddog42]

This thread is my first choice for past threads (handicapping/general racing) that I have found particularly good or stimulating. This may have been done before on this board, I don't really know. Please feel free to add your own choice for this Greatest Hits thread. This one is about the Hong Kong betting syndicates.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=23864&page=1&pp=15

[jfdinneen]

maddog42,

Thanks for the vote - I am pleased that you found it of value.

John

[turninforhome10]

Just spent the whole morning with the lecture. I am humbled while at the same time invigorated. First day of the rest of my gambling career. Excellent thread and has my vote.

[turninforhome10]

So I come to this question. In an ideal world would a horseplayer be able to make more money betting with a bookie (legally) or at the track?


It would seem that bookmakers by assuming risk would have to have a weakness vs the track which assumes no risk. Not sure if weakness is the right word. Just thinking off the top of my head here but would not a bookie be vulnerable in the 8-1 to 20-1 range in odds. In an ideal world if one could find a high win% play in this odds range, depending on the variables of the favorites (trainer, pedigree, bounce) and how this is swaying the odds, a bookmaker would be the way to go. Being a good handicapper is one thing but getting better than track odds when the public is moving the pools based on non performance variables is another.

[maddog42]

I don't even know any bookies any more. I suppose you mean getting better odds. Do you mean exchange wagering or English bookies?

[maddog42]

Since no one else has contributed, I will Keep posting MY favorite threads, and I will let CJ or someone change the title of this Thread or combine it under a new title.

While I am enjoying the Thaskalos threads (Handicappers Cafe etc.) my favorite was the Superfecta thread:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=83249&highlight=superfecta+thaskalos.

[turninforhome10]

I don't even know any bookies any more. I suppose you mean getting better odds. Do you mean exchange wagering or English bookies?
Parimutuel vs Exhange\bookmaker.

[maddog42]

Paceline selection seems to be a dying art, with everyone averaging/compunding. This is a pertinent thread:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=72818&highlight=picking+pacelines

[HUSKER55]

I have a question for you guys. I am more of a static type player. I use the same program and don't change,....ok..sometimes a little, after all that is what handicappers do. I don't use a database.

In the end, I make a line base on the data I put in. I compair my top pick and odds to see who everyone thinks will win and then the odds I think I should get to what is offered.

for you guys that don't make a line, how do you tell if you are getting value when you place your bet?

For example, if you think the odds should be 3 and the odds offored are 2 then the horse is overbet.

It appears I have got my self mixed up again. Doesn't it all depend on how good you think your line is? If you don't trust your line then you have to go with the market offering.

thanks!

[Pace Cap'n]

Paceline selection seems to be a dying art, with everyone averaging/compunding. This is a pertinent thread:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=72818&highlight=picking+pacelines

Here's a couple more on paceline selection...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6399

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6485


Good stuff in both threads.