Fair odds

[jackad]

Which software program comes up with the best fair-0dds line?
And, how much do the track odds have to be above the fair-odds line for you to place a bet?

Jack

[Secretariat]

Fair Odds...Fair Odds can be assigned subjectively as Mark Cramer does, or through some type of quantifying approach using a database or program which comes up with an estimate of the percentage a horse has of winning. Most players ask for 20% minimal on their odds line. Cramer asks about 50% on his odds line. Sartin demanded 5/2 up generally on his top two "best" contender plays.

One can even derive a Fair Odds line from simply examing the morning line and deriving win percents for various conditions, and then arrive at a odds line that adds up to 100%, and simply multiply those odds times say 1.2 (20%).

There have been attempts using Impact Values, Quirin's Regression techniques in his first book. Mitchell in his books. Personally, I think Cramer's approach is as good as any. One man's 2/1 horse can easily be another man's 20/1, and both may be equal handicappers in the long run.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by Secretariat
One man's 2/1 horse can easily be another man's 20/1, and both may be equal handicappers in the long run.

Let me just highlight that part. If you make (or use) oddslines, that is the most important thing you can understand and very few people do. Although some oddslines are better than others, the only perfect one is the one where you assign 100% chance of winning on the (eventual) winner, and 0% for everyone else. (Which is basically what the single-best-horse-per-race type bettor does, except far from perfectly.)

But if you're making normal oddslines that are supposed to represent the relative chances of the horses, two people working independently can come up with oddslines that are completely different from each other, but with the same usefulness (i.e. profit-making potential) over the long haul (many races, many oddlines). I often see people become obsessed with finding the "true" chances of each horse, when there is no such thing.

[JimG]

Originally posted by jackad
Which software program comes up with the best fair-0dds line?

Jack

Without a doubt, the best program by far in this area that I have used is Capsheet.

[jackad]

JimG,
Do you know where I would find info about Capsheet?
Thanks.
Jack

[JimG]

Jack,

It's one of the "free" programs on the www.brisnet.com website. I use "free" in quotes as the datafiles are very expensive. Same price as the All-Ways files...$14 a pop or $7 a pop if you are a member of the Gold club. I always thought the oddsline was excellent, even where 1st time starters and lightly raced horses are concerned.