Triple Crown Spacing

[classhandicapper]

I think this might be a good time for "another" discussion about Triple Crown spacing.

Both Thoro-Graph and The Sheets have been strong advocates of greater spacing between races and have specifically brought up the gap between the Derby and Preakness as being especially stressful. (and did it again this year related to IHA)

While it's impossible to demonstrate that IHA's tendon injury is in any way correlated to running in both the Derby and Preakness (with the Preakness being a especially big effort), I think both camps have been especially prescient about Triple Crown horses coming off big efforts having physical problems soon after.

I have been a traditionalist about the Triple Crown and also believe pace, trip, bias, race development and simple fluctuations around mean account for most of the ups and downs in horses' figures we see. So IMO the term "bounce" is massively overused. However, I also believe tough campaigns slowly wear horses down and tend to cause horses with a history of physical problems to go backwards, sometimes right after their first race off a layoff if it was tough.

As much as I "personally" would not like to see the Triple Crown changed and can demonstrate that horses that win legitimate trip races in fast time do just as well or better coming back quickly as they do given a few extra weeks, I'm starting to think the evidence is mounting that a "couple of tough fast races" without much spacing can really take a toll on some horses and trigger physical damage that doesn't manifest itself clearly right away.

Thoro-Graph and TheSheets may be right. A broken clock is right twice a day, but a broken clock is never right as often as they have been in recent years about a few very high profile horses.

[duncan04]

No no no no no!

[iwearpurple]

While greater spacing of the triple crown races probably will happen some day, I am not in favor of it.

If this happens, the first triple crown winner and all subsequent winners will probably have an asterik next to their names forever. Even if the * is not placed after their names, the public will always percieve it as not the same, and in reality is wouldn't be the same.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Maybe they should just go back to breeding for distance. Just because one cannot win within the established rules doesn't mean it's time to change them.

[iwearpurple]

Maybe they should just go back to breeding for distance. Just because one cannot win within the established rules doesn't mean it's time to change them.

Agree

[iceknight]

While greater spacing of the triple crown races probably will happen some day, I am not in favor of it.

If this happens, the first triple crown winner and all subsequent winners will probably have an asterik next to their names forever. Even if the * is not placed after their names, the public will always percieve it as not the same, and in reality is wouldn't be the same.
The distances of various Classic races has been changed.. it's not always been at 1.5 miles at the Belmont. So the * is not a big deal.

[wisconsin]

Don't mess with this, please. There was a time where the Preakness was 6 days after the Derby, which was 4 days after the Derby Trial.

Get back to basics with breeding, for cryin' out loud.

[PaceAdvantage]

If horses can't handle the current spacing of the Triple Crown races, then it's time to shut down the sport completely, revamp the entire breeding industry and try again...

Changing the spacing after something "bad" happens will solve absolutely nothing. These are flesh and blood animals...athletes...and like all atheletes in all sports, prone to injury, often at the least opportune time...

[Solid_Gold]

I'm chalking the injury up to Drug O'Neils having him do these repeated gallops around the Belmont oval to keep himself in the spotlight on a daily basis!

[Tom]

I think this might be a good time for "another" discussion about Triple Crown spacing.



No, it's not.

Would the Triple Crown be more valuable is we had 30 winners of it by now? We have only had a few because it takes a CHAMPION to win it.

How many perfect games in baseball do we have every year?
Should we change the rules?
Make the ball smaller?
Bats shorter?

If you want have a relevant discussion, how about why trainers today are not capable of training a champion?

[classhandicapper]

If horses can't handle the current spacing of the Triple Crown races, then it's time to shut down the sport completely, revamp the entire breeding industry and try again...

Changing the spacing after something "bad" happens will solve absolutely nothing. These are flesh and blood animals...athletes...and like all atheletes in all sports, prone to injury, often at the least opportune time...

I agree.

But "if" there is a statistical correlation between 2 very big efforts, coming back quickly, and a higher incidence of break downs, very poor efforts etc.... then we would know for sure we have an issue with the horses because clearly this was not always the case.

This is from Thoro-Graph's Belmont Analysis prior to today's news and it is very similar to several others that were SPOT on about some other very high profile horses.

"In this year’s race, we’re definitely interested in taking a shot against
I’ll Have Another, who will be very short and has no better chance than
Dullahan, and arguably Paynter as well. There’s also a case to be made for
playing I’ll Have Another to bounce badly and going deep in the exotics—
horses coming back on short rest following very big efforts (like Barbaro) or
several big efforts spaced close together (like Charismatic and Eight Belles)
are vulnerable. That’s not to say every horse in that situation breaks down,
they don’t—but the situation we’re putting our best young horses in stresses
them badly, and even the ones that make it through all three races in one
piece often don’t make too many more starts. It’s time to make the Triple
Crown longer than five weeks. "

[iceknight]

I agree.
statistical correlation " You can draw statistical correlation between price of water melons and Belmont winners or anything...Is there any other *real* evidence.. or can it be tested in any manner by biomechanical experts. Probably something to do more with breeding. Maybe the Belmont should be a stallion maker race than the Met Mile.

[classhandicapper]

No, it's not.

Would the Triple Crown be more valuable is we had 30 winners of it by now? We have only had a few because it takes a CHAMPION to win it.



I think some people are missing the point of the question I am raising.

I have no desire to make it easier to win the Triple Crown by changing the distances or spacing. In fact, I'd probably vote against it.

I'm saying the evidence is mounting that modern horses get very stressed from tough races that are insufficiently spaced and are more vulnerable to physical problems, breaking down, or just wearing out soon after.

What that means for the Triple Crown, I don't know. But I think a lot more connections are going to start skipping the Preakness once they lose the Derby if the schedule isn't changed or we don't start breeding sturdier horses. What the connections of Union Rags, Dullahan, and others in recent years have been doing is going to become the norm.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm saying the evidence is mounting that modern horses get very stressed from tough races that are insufficiently spaced and are more vulnerable to physical problems, breaking down, or just wearing out soon after.What evidence exactly?

The sample size is entirely way too small to draw any sort of conclusion.

Seriously...BARBARO is an example? And EIGHT BELLES?

[JustRalph]

I'm chalking the injury up to Drug O'Neils having him do these repeated gallops around the Belmont oval to keep himself in the spotlight on a daily basis!

I am reading something differently into those gallops. With hindsight of course.

[duncan04]

IMO, it all comes down to breeding and horses not being ran like they did back in the days when Triple Crown winners existed. Now it seems like its all speed, speed, speed and maybe 5 races in a year.

[RXB]

It's utterly illogical to make early-season 3YO's the overwhelming stars of the sport. It just encourages breeding/training practices to create early peaking, which is bound to result in earlier retirements not just at the highest class but throughout all levels. And these immature animals are certainly not the best runners.

The commercial breeding tail has been wagging the racing dog for a long time now and ultimately that is a disastrous situation for the sport.

[FenceBored]

I think current spacing with at least 35 years between Triple Crown winners is too much. We need to tighten up the spacing.

[classhandicapper]

What evidence exactly?

The sample size is entirely way too small to draw any sort of conclusion.

Seriously...BARBARO is an example? And EIGHT BELLES?


It's not that Eight Belles broke down. It's that he practically predicted that Eight Belles was at risk of breaking down in the race.

It's not like they are making calls like this every other week and occasionally a horse breaks down or get injured. They talk about "bounces" all the time (many of which turn out to be wrong). But when you make some pretty specific calls that hint at possible physical problems and then the horse breaks down in the race or in the week leading up to it, it's hard to totally dismiss because it's such a low probability event.

I was somewhat skeptical the first couple of times, but after 4-5 times I am way less skeptical.

I mean what are the odds of getting one of these right in a high profile race if it was random?

How about 4 or 5 times?

They have to be huge. So it makes you think there may be a correlation.

[Robert Fischer]

No, it's not.

Would the Triple Crown be more valuable is we had 30 winners of it by now? We have only had a few because it takes a CHAMPION to win it.

How many perfect games in baseball do we have every year?
Should we change the rules?
Make the ball smaller?
Bats shorter?

If you want have a relevant discussion, how about why trainers today are not capable of training a champion?

agree

the best is always few, and rare

[wisconsin]

Maybe if we are to turn horse racing and horses themselves away from the glass doll syndrome, trainers need to run them more often.

Alysheba won the Derby 9 days after the Bluegrass. Then the Preakness, and you could argue lack of lasix cost him the Belmont.

And lest we forget that Conquistidor Cielo romped in the Belmont a mere 5 days after he ran in the Met Mile.

They just don;t run them like they used to, and I firmly believe that if you rest, you rust.

[Marshall Bennett]

There have been far too many close calls to make adjustments. It's not like there haven't been good opportunities. There hasn't been a TC winner in baseball since 1968. Golf's grand slam is another rarity. Having a traditional challenge and then tweeting it till someone wins just isn't right. Besides, I don't think IHA's demise here had anything to do with spacing. It goes under the heading "Shit Happens".

[Mr_Ed]

I heard a good Triple Crown winner analogy the other day.

It's like a pitcher going the distance in winning the 1st, 3rd, and 5th games of the World Series.

[Tom]

I'm saying the evidence is mounting that modern horses get very stressed from tough races that are insufficiently spaced and are more vulnerable to physical problems, breaking down, or just wearing out soon after.


Then they do not deserve to win a triple crown.
If they can't cut it with the real champions, so be it.

Make a modern day triple crown - the Feeble Crown - and run it a 5.5 - 6 - 7 furlongs.

The standards never change - meet them or kiss fame good bye.

[tzipi]

Stop the over inbreeding, the breeding for pure SPEED and go back to clean training and we'll get a TC winner.

Plus if you're going to space it out so horses can win the TC easier, don't say the next TC winner is in the class of Sec, Affirmed and all the rest of the great TC winners.

[Producer]

I know all the traditionalists will oppose it but every other major sport has had changes to it rules over the years.

Basketball used to have no shot clock and no 3 point shot. Football used to be even more of a gladiator sport with no "real" helmet, guys spearing through the air to make hits, even the kickoffs are not the same anymore. Hockey has made similar rule changes to football with concussions being the major concern.

Football even changed its rules to gear towards more offense and throwing the ball more because it is more enjoyable for fans to watch. Should Tom Brady's TD record from a few years back have an asterisk by it because rules are geared more towards offense and throwing the ball in today's game? I think not. The NFL realized that running the ball and playing smash mouth defense just isn't that enjoyable to watch for the majority of fans.

Maybe if we want more people to follow horse racing, we need to make changes to make the game more exciting. Having a triple crown winner every 10 years or so, even more, might not be a bad thing.

It's clear that thoroughbreds of today are not nearly as stout as yesteryear. Whether it's breeding or something else, there is no denying it. People will always oppose change, it's human nature, but IT IS necessary.

If I owned a horse who just won the Kentucky Derby and I was really serious about racing the horse for years to come, I would skip the Preakness and possibly the Belmont all together. The media and other pressure would be tremendous but it's not in a horses best interest (at least not today's American thoroughbred) to run back so quickly.

[tzipi]

I know all the traditionalists will oppose it but every other major sport has had changes to it rules over the years.

Basketball used to have no shot clock and no 3 point shot. Football used to be even more of a gladiator sport with no "real" helmet, guys spearing through the air to make hits, even the kickoffs are not the same anymore. Hockey has made similar rule changes to football with concussions being the major concern.

Basketball would have teams just holding onto the ball forever and no one would watch :D . Football was NOT the same as it is today. These guys are bigger faster and more violent and even the older guys say the game has got to change again because it's become to violent and quick. What was the avg lbs and speed for a lineman, RB, Safety in the 30's, 40', 50, etc compared to today? These guys today fly through the air. Hockey is the same. Bigger, stronger and faster. Those sports excpet for B-Ball had to change to save lives.
But back to Belmont. I think the stamina breeding is the big change that needs ot happen. All speed today.

[Marshall Bennett]

Producer, the changes you've referred to are more to do with routine game-play rather than adjustments to accommodate award selections. I consider the TC more of an award achievement.
Should changes be made and a sudden rash of TC winners pop up (for whatever reasons) what do you do? Change it again to make it tougher?
This is in part why Nascar has become a joke imo. Not so much the awards, but all the other changes they've made as well.

[Producer]

Basketball would have teams just holding onto the ball forever and no one would watch :D . Football was NOT the same as it is today. These guys are bigger faster and more violent and even the older guys say the game has got to change again because it's become to violent and quick. What was the avg lbs and speed for a lineman, RB, Safety in the 30's, 40', 50, etc compared to today? These guys today fly through the air. Hockey is the same. Bigger, stronger and faster. Those sports excpet for B-Ball had to change to save lives.
But back to Belmont. I think the stamina breeding is the big change that needs ot happen. All speed today.


Can't tell if you are agreeing or disagreeing with me. But, as you say, the athletes playing football and the other sports are not the same today and rules had to change to accommodate them. Same thing can be said about the thoroughbreds of today. They are not the same either. Why shouldn't rules change to address the changes in the horses physically also?

[tzipi]

Can't tell if you are agreeing or disagreeing with me. But, as you say, the athletes playing football and the other sports are not the same today and rules had to change to accommodate them. Same thing can be said about the thoroughbreds of today. They are not the same either. Why shouldn't rules change to address the changes in the horses physically also?

No, I agree with you Producer but was just saying those rules had to change to save lives of athletes. I think changing the rules of the TC is not to save lives but to make it easier all because breeders just breed for speed today and not stamina. The breed has weakened a bit too because of it. Also lets not forget that it can be done. People seem to think no one has gotten close since the 70's.

Silver Charm- Lost by a neck

Real Quiet- Lost by a nose

Charasmatic- broke down

Smarty Jones- Came in second

War Emblem- Lost all chance at the start. Might've won.

Big Brown- Kicked his shoe and was pulled up. Who really knows though.

I mean if Silver and Real Quiet just hold on for one more head bob, no one is complaining probably. It can be done and will be and there's no reason to change it. This overbreeding for speed and no stamina must change though IMO.

[Tom]

Good point, Producer.

Just shows you that talent and ability also need to have a bit of luck as well.

[Greyfox]

I can understand why traditionalists want to set the dates in stone.
There's an argument for that, except that the dates have moved before.

I think that there is one strong argument for different spacing of the dates:

It's MARKETING, MARKETING, MARKETING.

As it is horse racing gets reasonable coverage, sort of, for 5 weeks each spring.
If the races were set for the first Saturday in May, the first Saturday in June and the first Saturday in July the coverage of racing would be lengthened.
If you think that this would make the Triple Crown easier. It won't.
Thoroughbreds who aren't mature enough in May might be ready by July.

However, there's a lot of resistance to moving the dates, from "Old Timers."
Some day youth will be served and those dates might change.

[therussmeister]

I heard a good Triple Crown winner analogy the other day.

It's like a pitcher going the distance in winning the 1st, 3rd, and 5th games of the World Series.
Is it really? I doubt it. Just because somebody said it doesn't mean it's true.

[Tom]

However, there's a lot of resistance to moving the dates, from "Old Timers."
Some day youth will be served and those dates might change.

Then you cut down on the break between the TC and the Haskell and Travers.

[tzipi]

Just shows you that talent and ability also need to have a bit of luck as well.

Well that is very true. :ThmbUp:

[Thomas Roulston]

If a change wasn't made by now, then don't expect a change to be made anytime soon.

[Tom]

Took 'em 10 years to agree on common color saddle cloths.