Morning Line for The Belmont Stakes

[woodbinepmi]

Don't tell me who you think is going to win, but give me a morning line for the Belmont Stakes. Remember, a morning line is how the public will bet when the gates are loaded.

[senortout]

I think you really are asking for our opinions on what the actual odds will be as the gate loads? The morning line is pretty much set already.

[senortout]

I think you might get 6/5 on I'll Have Another, for no other reason than the restrictions unfairly imposed on this particular animal...make no mistake, its highly likely why the detention barn was set up for the Belmont, allowing all other stakes run that day their usual amenities!
IHA....6/5 to 8/5
Dullahan...3-1 to 4-1
Union Rags 6-1 to 8-1
all others 10-1 or better

senortout

ps I have hot oats at least 3 times a week.

[turninforhome10]

ps I have hot oats at least 3 times a week.
I have two old QH's with very few teeth left that want to know what time to be over for dinner? :lol: :lol: :lol:

[senortout]

m'dogs even like hot oats, 'n raisins!

[linrom1]

IHA 3/5

[woodbinepmi]

No, I want you make a morning line on how you think it will be when the gates are loaded.
I think 4-5 is a little high on IWA, I believe it will be a little higher than even money maybe 6-5, with Union Rags around 9-2 and Dallahan at 6-1 haven't gone thru the rest of the field, but most will be large.
It's easy to say "I like so and so", but to make a correct morning line is a little more challenging.

[horses4courses]

It's easy to say "I like so and so", but to make a correct morning line is a little more challenging.

Not sure I agree with that - you can turn correct picks into $$$

If you set up a system of evaluating a correct M/L, this might be a more worthwhile exercise.

Here's an example:

Pick the top five horses in the betting in order.
1 pt for having the horse in the correct spot.
2 pts for naming the exact post time odds of the horse.
1 pt for being within one click of the final odds.

Actual M/L :
I'll Have Another 4-5
Dullahan 5-1
Union Rags 6-1
Paynter 8-1
Street Life 12-1

My version:
I'll Have Another 3-5
Union Rags 9-2
Dullahan 5-1
Paynter 7-1
Street Life 15-1

Good luck!

[RXB]

My guess on the final odds:

IHA: 1/1
UR: 4/1
Dull: 9/2
Pay: 5/1
SL: 15/1

That leaves about 10-12% of the win pool for the other seven, all of whom will be (and deserve to be) bomb odds.

[Robert Fischer]

Actual M/L :
I'll Have Another 4-5
Dullahan 5-1
Union Rags 6-1
Paynter 8-1
Street Life 12-1

My version:
I'll Have Another 3-5
Dullahan 9-2
Paynter 9-2
Union Rags 9-2
Street Life 12-1

[mannyberrios]

I think you might get 6/5 on I'll Have Another, for no other reason than the restrictions unfairly imposed on this particular animal...make no mistake, its highly likely why the detention barn was set up for the Belmont, allowing all other stakes run that day their usual amenities!
IHA....6/5 to 8/5
Dullahan...3-1 to 4-1
Union Rags 6-1 to 8-1
all others 10-1 or better

senortout

ps I have hot oats at least 3 times a week.
This morning line looks good

[cnollfan]

Don't tell me who you think is going to win, but give me a morning line for the Belmont Stakes. Remember, a morning line is how the public will bet when the gates are loaded.

I'll Have Another 3/5
Dullahan 7/2
Union Rags 5/1
Street Life 12/1
Paynter 12/1
Everybody else 30/1+

[burnsy]

I'll Have Another 3/5
Dullahan 7/2
Union Rags 5/1
Street Life 12/1
Paynter 12/1
Everybody else 30/1+
i agree with this line....people will be buying two dollar win tickets for IHA. i'm just curious to see if union rags ends up second choice over dullahan. this is ny and all the hype about excuses and jockeys...plus the loyal fan base could put union rags lower than dullahan. i'm usually not a fan until after the race...i kind of like prior results so i don't really care for union rags in this race and his breeding just says he probably won't make it. the other horse i'm sort of against is street life.....at 12-1? what has this horse done????? he has clunk up for 3rd possibilities but i kind of put him with everybody else. i'll play exactas with dullahan, IHA and one of the bombs...i'm tossing union rags and street life from my exacta play. union rags could run great tommorrow...but with his recent form and going against this horse(IHA)...i got to get at least 8-1 to even use him and thats never going to happen.