Is there a Pine Circle this year?

[Valuist]

IMO, there is and its Street Life.

When I look at the main contenders, I have bigger knocks against the 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices.

IMO, Dullahan worked way too quick for this race. We've seen the Funny Cides and Gate Dancers go in :58 or :45 and change and it didn't seem to do them much good. I can't imagine Romans was thrilled with this work. And lets not forget, that blazing pace in the Derby flattered his form. I suspect Dullahan will be lower than his morning line odds, and will create value.

Its apparent Union Rags hasn't moved forward at 3. We've heard all kinds of excuses for his Derby run, and I don't buy into them. Even his Fountain of Youth, while visually impressive, has become suspect as he clearly beat a weak field. Also, does a Dixie Union offspring figure to improve at 12 furlongs? No way. Money burner last two, he will take down more money on Saturday.

Paynter has been overhyped. Despite what Baffert has publicly said, this horse, in no way, is remotely as good as Bodemeister. Talk is cheap; results are what matters. Wiring a paceless field on the Preakness undercard at insanely low odds didn't impress me.

Street Life seems to be overlooked. He appears to be one of those runners who clearly benefits as the races get longer. Have to think Chad Brown was pointing for this race all along.

Crusher exacta: I'll Have Another-Street Life and a saver reversing the top two.

[ArlJim78]

I'm pretty much in agreement here. I think I'll Have Another lays over the field.
I have mixed feelings about Dullahan, even if he fires and improves I don't think he is on par with IHA and I don't think the distance will help him. Although I'm not convinced about his dirt form he probably is the strongest competitor.

Paynter is supposed to add 8 pounds, move up in class, add 3 1/2 furlongs, AND improve enough to down IHA? sorry I'm not buying it.

Union Rags I do not believe is cut out for this distance and will be distanced, at best maybe the bottom rungs of vertical bets.

I'll be looking to get Street Life, or perhaps Atigun into the tri or super.

The mystery horse to me is Ravelo's Boy. Why is he in here? why bother shipping him in for this? I mean I can see some of the others with local connections putting their horses in this race even though they're over matched. But Ravelo's boy has never raced outside of Florida, and never well enough that you would think he should go in the Belmont. I'm just curious what they know, or think they know. he's got a slew of bullet works at Calder. I will use him in the vertical exotics not because of anything I can see in his PP's, just because of the fact the connections felt like this was a worthwhile shot to take, and the fact that he'll be enormous odds on the tote.

[GaryG]

Street Life got an ideal setup in the Peter Pan, but I really liked his race in the Broad Brush. Despite a walking pace he was able to run down a colt that had a daylight lead at the furlong pole. He definitely could be the Pine Circle to IHA's Swale.

[Wiley]

Dullahan worked very fast before his Bluegrass win so think Romans is just doing what worked for the horse in the past with the fast blowout. The good ones worked fast before the Belmont and still won it. Think he is probably better suited for turf/poly with his high leg stride.

Guess Romans is going for the Met/Belmont double with a win here. Hard to believe looking back that Conquistador Cielo won both five days apart, think he was picking up something like 13 pounds from the Met to the Belmont also.

Union Rags and Unstoppable U are the only winners over Belmont and the later looks out classed.

Street Life is picking up 10 pounds and had a nice pace to run into last and could not beat Mark Valeski, who is marginal at best among this crop but did run big in that race. I guess he does have a race over the track which probably helps and is bred well and agree he could possibly improve for a second or third place.

I think Union Rags with the positive rider switch will be hopefully closer to the pace in striking position with IHA and then see what he has got down the lane. I know his last two are questionable, top breeding is suspect but so are many others here including Dullahan, bottom breeding looks pretty solid, he is a massive colt in the Point Given mold and should love the big sweeping Belmont turns so I will give him one last shot at it. He might not have it in him but at least hope he gets a clean race without any excuses and JV lets him run.

[MickJ26]

I'm counting on Paynter to be a Bernardini-type horse. Bernardini improved tons from the Withers to the Preakness. Bernardini went from a one mile Grade 3 to a mile and three sixteenths Grade 1. Baffert has always said that he was the most talented horse in the barn. He could just te taking a little while longer to prove it. I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but, he does fit the profile in my opinion.

[Robert Fischer]

It looks like Street Life just isn't as good as I'll Have Another, Dullahan, Paynter, and Union Rags.

However he did run a career best last time in the Peter Pan. This is a horse I hated in the relatively weak Broad Brush stakes at 8/5 off a maiden.


I thought that in terms of the Peter Pan he ran a pretty cheap third, but I did think that he did some running. Does that make any sense? I thought he did a LOT more running than Good Morning Diva(whos even cheaper closing 4th muddies the chart on Street Life a little), and at one point he was doing some running. His footwork was much improved. I feel that not only the trainer does a good job with moving horses forward, and these type of races with distance and moderate pace, but that the trainer has a sharp understanding of how the dynamics in the Belmont should leave Street Life more in touch with the pace and the favorite.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm counting on Paynter to be a Bernardini-type horse. Bernardini improved tons from the Withers to the Preakness. Bernardini went from a one mile Grade 3 to a mile and three sixteenths Grade 1. Baffert has always said that he was the most talented horse in the barn. He could just te taking a little while longer to prove it. I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but, he does fit the profile in my opinion.

That's a cool comparison.
I don't think Paynter is ready to beat these G1 Classic distance runners (at least IHA, D) on the pace in a 12furlong triple crown deciding race. However I wouldn't be shocked in the least.
Any time a horse can run in a 9F race as good as the Santa Anita Derby (beaten by IHA by 4?), in their 2nd lifetime start, and get the distance, it speaks volumes about the horses potential as a classic distance horse. A lot of horses would have disappeared after that "stunt" by Baffert. Paynter has actually moved forward.

[rastajenk]

What's the Pine Circle reference?

[GaryG]

What's the Pine Circle reference?He ran 2nd to Swale in the 1984 Belmont....big exacta, around $120, with a solid choice on top.

[Maximillion]

.

The mystery horse to me is Ravelo's Boy. Why is he in here? why bother shipping (http://#) him in for this? I mean I can see some of the others with local connections putting their horses in this race even though they're over matched. But Ravelo's boy has never raced outside of Florida, and never well enough that you would think he should go in the Belmont. I'm just curious what they know, or think they know. he's got a slew of bullet works at Calder. I will use him in the vertical exotics not because of anything I can see in his PP's, just because of the fact the connections felt like this was a worthwhile shot to take, and the fact that he'll be enormous odds on the tote.

Fwiw,that last work (#) would seem to be extremely fast for that surface....GL
(think ill throw him in too)

[ArlJim78]

Fwiw,that last work (http://#) would seem to be extremely fast for that surface....GL
(think ill throw him in too)
and of all people the horse has Alex Solis up.
Solis has never ridden him and has no other mounts that day.
they don't bring up a rider from Florida, they don't pick up a local NY rider, no they bring in Solis from the west coast to Belmont to ride an overmatched Florida based horse. It's just and odd set-up, I don't get it.

[Thomas Roulston]

But Pine Circle had stamina-wing influences in his pedigree. Neither Street Sense nor Atigun do.

And besides, I'm looking for a lively early pace in here - maybe even a cutthroat three-way speed duel among Paynter, My Adonis and Unstoppable U.

So I'm not getting the parallel between this Belmont and 1984's (in which Swale set a ridiculously slow pace).

[Valuist]

But Pine Circle had stamina-wing influences in his pedigree. Neither Street Sense nor Atigun do.

And besides, I'm looking for a lively early pace in here - maybe even a cutthroat three-way speed duel among Paynter, My Adonis and Unstoppable U.

So I'm not getting the parallel between this Belmont and 1984's (in which Swale set a ridiculously slow pace).

The parallel was the logical horse, the Derby winner (Swale and I'll Have Another) and a deep closing longshot for 2nd. Now with I'll Have Another out and with Street Life figuring to not be a longshot, there is no more parallel.

[GaryG]

I don't see a lively pace either, Smith knows that Paynter does not need the lead. This should be a truly run race with a pace that neither helps nor hinders any of them.