Eblouissante, by Bernardini, half-sis to Zenyatta

[FantasticDan]

I swear this 3yo filly has had 25 or more recorded workouts going back to 2011, maybe more. Equibase only goes back to April, can someone with better resources tell me how many total workouts?

Shirreffs wanted to have her in the starting gate last fall, but it didn't happen. In the meantime, it's just work after work after work, just like last year..

She appears to be fit and sound, so what are they waiting for? :confused:

[OTM Al]

You have to pick your spots if you want to maintain a perfect record.

[FantasticDan]

You have to pick your spots if you want to maintain a perfect record. :rolleyes: :D

[ArlJim78]

Didn't Sherriffs often attribute some of their success with Zenyatta to the fact that they let her grow up and didn't push her into racing?

[classhandicapper]

I have her on my DRF watch list. She's been working almost endlessly every week for what seems like forever, but she has never recorded a single workout that even hints of any speed (when even she got a "handily" designation). Patience is a virtue, but at some point you have to start questioning her level of ability. I think Smith was on her last year for at least one workout and had some nice things to say, but who knows. One thing for sure is that she's absolutely gorgeous (at least what I've seen of her).

[IntotheMystic]

I don't think she's ever worked farther than 4 furlongs. Perhaps we will see her at Del Mar :confused:

[FantasticDan]

I don't think she's ever worked farther than 4 furlongs. She's worked 5F plenty.. from Jan. 26 thru the end of March, she worked 5F at least seven times, according to her Facebook page.. :rolleyes:

[nijinski]

I'm hoping to see her race at some point . In any case , even if she remained unraced she has the potential value as a broodmare with her bloodlines.

[classhandicapper]

Sharpest lifetime work.

47.8H

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Eblouissante/143117319085172

[duncan04]

Sharpest lifetime work.

47.8H

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Eblouissante/143117319085172


Wonder if she is close to her first start after that work?

[Wagergirl]

She's worked 5F plenty.. from Jan. 26 thru the end of March, she worked 5F at least seven times, according to her Facebook page.. :rolleyes:

Totally off subject.. but it made me giggle to think of a horse trying to type up a Facebook status. :lol:

[Sysonby]

They'll have to try her in a race sometime. She may be one of those horses who just has no interest in working in the mornings, but lay it out on the track in the afternoon.

[letswastemoney]

She will be a great play-against whenever she does start.

[FantasticDan]

BUMP

Yet more workouts, but she's been picking it up (by her previous standards). Shirreff's says she travels 'twice the ground as a normal horse'. Smith says she reminds him of big Z..

Anyway, I'd be surprised if a late fall start didn't happen.. that's when 3yo Zenyatta debuted as well..

Betfair Hollywood Park 9/14/2012 All Weather Track 5F 1:01.60 Handily 34/126
Betfair Hollywood Park 9/7/2012 All Weather Track 5F 1:00.40 Handily 3/37
Betfair Hollywood Park 8/22/2012 All Weather Track 3F 36.40 Handily 2/20
Betfair Hollywood Park 8/15/2012 All Weather Track 4F 47.60 Handily 1/38
Betfair Hollywood Park 8/8/2012 All Weather Track 3F 38.00 Handily 20/27

[Grits]

There are folks that have been watching her every move, waiting, watching for her like evangelicals are watching for the second coming.

Somehow, its hard to get so flipped out about a horse that's never run. Maybe its just me.

[precocity]

There are folks that have been watching her every move, waiting, watching for her like evangelicals are watching for the second coming.

Somehow, its hard to get so flipped out about a horse that's never run. Maybe its just me.
:D agreed grits anything associated with Zenyatta and that's what you get.

[Itamaraca]

Somehow, its hard to get so flipped out about a horse that's not very good. Maybe its just me.

FTFY. I thought the same thing when Street Life went off 6.70:1 in the Travers. :lol:

Maybe it's just me.
Then again, that's 'Chad's' horse.

[Grits]

FTFY. I thought the same thing when Street Life went off 6.70:1 in the Travers. :lol:

Maybe it's just me.
Then again, that's 'Chad's' horse.

Please, don't rewrite my posts. As much as you feel you may be, you're not bright enough to qualify. Its in your best interest to put me on ignore if you don't like what I post here at PA. I promise you, if my past history reveals anything, its that I'm not your best choice as a troll candidate.

I trust you'll understand, "whateveryournameisthismonth." Thanks.

[classhandicapper]

If she turns out to be a good enough horse to be competitive in stakes, that would be a huge success. More than that would be great. The expectations (or hopes) for more are unfair to her and the connections. Shirreffs is handling her like she has some ability but she must have had a setback or two along the way as she was growing because her training has been interrupted a couple of times.

[FantasticDan]

6F work on 9/24
5F work on 10/2

Almost ready... :sleeping: ;)



Yet more workouts, but she's been picking it up (by her previous standards). Shirreff's says she travels 'twice the ground as a normal horse'. Smith says she reminds him of big Z..

Anyway, I'd be surprised if a late fall start didn't happen.. that's when 3yo Zenyatta debuted as well..

Betfair Hollywood Park 9/14/2012 All Weather Track 5F 1:01.60 Handily 34/126
Betfair Hollywood Park 9/7/2012 All Weather Track 5F 1:00.40 Handily 3/37
Betfair Hollywood Park 8/22/2012 All Weather Track 3F 36.40 Handily 2/20
Betfair Hollywood Park 8/15/2012 All Weather Track 4F 47.60 Handily 1/38
Betfair Hollywood Park 8/8/2012 All Weather Track 3F 38.00 Handily 20/27

[FantasticDan]

6F work 11/24
6F work 10/28
6F work 10/19
5F work 10/10

Almost, almost ready.. :sleeping: :sleeping: ;)

[Ca9]

Eblouissante

Distance: Five Furlongs
Time: 59:20 Handily

From DRFPrivman: "Attention Zenyatta watchers: 3yo half-sister Eblouissante is entered to make debut in Friday's 4th race at Hollywood Park."

Betfair Hollywood Park - November 16, 2012
http://equibase.com/images/line.gifRace 4 - 2:02 PM
http://equibase.com/images/line.gifMAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
http://equibase.com/images/line.gifPurse $45,000. (Plus $13,500 – CBOIF - California Bred Owner Fund). For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. One And One Sixteenth Miles. (All Weather Track)
PPHorseVirtual
StableA/SMedJockeyWgtTrainer1Spin the Blues (KY) (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8604227&registry=T)3/FLJ Valdivia, Jr. (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=J&eID=18062)121B J Koriner (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=26392)2Saturday Nite Ride (KY) (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8595027&registry=T)3/FLM Garcia (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=J&eID=117931)121B Baffert (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=83)3Eblouissante (KY) (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8557674&registry=T)3/FC S Nakatani (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=J&eID=1339)121J A Shirreffs (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=38392)4Chestnut Moon (FL) (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8602547&registry=T)3/FLV Espinoza (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=J&eID=16787)121J M Cassidy (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=37522)5Belonging (KY) (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8577062&registry=T)3/FLR Bejarano (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=J&eID=102032)121J W Sadler (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=1626)6Out for Revenge (KY) (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8606546&registry=T)3/FLT Baze (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=J&eID=74725)121E J Guillot (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=709)7Urania (KY) (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8534840&registry=T)3/FG K Gomez (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=J&eID=731)121P Gallagher (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=137497)8Playful Humor (KY) (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8566554&registry=T)3/FLJ Talamo (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=J&eID=122644)121N D Drysdale (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=489)

[tucker6]

This will be like a UFO sighting when/if it occurs.

[letswastemoney]

This will be a wonderful betting opportunity!!! Zenyatta's half-sister...with the sire being the overrated Bernardini?? With a 7% 1st time out trainer???

Ironically, the best alternative is a Moss owned filly named Belonging...

[letswastemoney]

Here is my analysis..

I hope Z nation is fully aware this filly is running...
http://thoughtsonracinglifeandmore.com/post/35544832324/zenyattas-half-sister-runs-on-thursday

[RXB]

Shirreffs has weak stats with FTSers in recent years but Nakatani's presence is not a problem. Five wins, four seconds from just 15 starts together in the past five years.

The dam has thrown five starters. Four of them are multiple winners, three won their debuts and two are multiple G1 winners. So unless she offers a poor physical/emotional impression in the paddock/parade-- which is unlikely-- I won't be betting against Eblouissante on Friday. Her workout pattern is solid and the opposition is hardly overwhelming.

[letswastemoney]

Shirreffs has weak stats with FTSers in recent years but Nakatani's presence is not a problem. Five wins, four seconds from just 15 starts together in the past five years.

The dam has thrown five starters. Four of them are multiple winners, three won their debuts and two are multiple G1 winners. So unless she offers a poor physical/emotional impression in the paddock/parade-- which is unlikely-- I won't be betting against Eblouissante on Friday. Her workout pattern is solid and the opposition is hardly overwhelming.In a normal situation, she should be 5/1 to 10/1. She won't be. Zenyatta has ruined her value. I think it's worth the risk to go against.

I'm not afraid to be wrong.

[letswastemoney]

In addition, any Bernardini offspring is already overhyped. How much more will the half to Zenyatta be? Fair odds will just not be there.

[Sysonby]

we'll see how she does, could be the family's just late bloomers

are there any breaks in the work tabs, might have had minor injuries along the way

[5k-claim]

In a normal situation, she should be 5/1 to 10/1. She won't be. Zenyatta has ruined her value. I think it's worth the risk to go against.

I'm not afraid to be wrong.Or simultaneously obnoxious and boring.

What exactly is the deal with that 'Pretty Horse Handicapper' link of yours? Never mind.

.

[letswastemoney]

Or simultaneously obnoxious and boring.

What exactly is the deal with that 'Pretty Horse Handicapper' link of yours? Never mind.

.
And just how am I simultaneously obnoxious and boring? Because I'm recommending the better value? That's great of you to say about me.

[5k-claim]

And just how am I simultaneously obnoxious and boring? Because I'm recommending the better value? That's great of you to say about me.Sorry, maybe that was a bit harsh. I had just clicked on your 'Pretty Horse Handicapper' link, (more or less) read that post, and the first reaction that came to my mind was "obnoxious and boring."

I guess I could have just kept that reaction to myself.

As for "recommending the better value" in the Eblouissante race Friday, I definitely have no problem with that. That sounds like solid handicapping theory to me.

Good luck on the race!

.

[RXB]

In a normal situation, she should be 5/1 to 10/1. She won't be. Zenyatta has ruined her value. I think it's worth the risk to go against.

I'm not afraid to be wrong.

Of the three horses you claim will offer better value, two of them are 3x maiden losers with unspectacular finishes in their most recent races. (Weak ROI scenario). The other is stretching from a closing effort at 6f to 8.5f-- another weak ROI scenario-- and while the sire is a positive on the stretchout, the dam is probably not. (Neither sib even tried a route from 23 combined races; the dam herself was 5th beaten by nine lengths in her only route try.)

No way Eblouissante should be 5/1 to 10/1 against that kind of mediocre opposition. Re-read those stats on the dam's other foals. 80% multiple winners, 60% debut winners, 40% multiple G1 winners. The race sets up as a pass scenario, not a bet-against scenario.

[EJXD2]

Eblouissante has had 45 published workouts the past 17 months, including at least 2/month since 9/8/11 http://j.mp/Q8Pp4n (http://t.co/w9AMcEOT)

https://twitter.com/Brisnet/status/268077918683541504

[cj]

Eblouissante has had 45 published workouts the past 17 months, including at least 2/month since 9/8/11 http://j.mp/Q8Pp4n (http://t.co/w9AMcEOT)

https://twitter.com/Brisnet/status/268077918683541504

No wonder field size sucks these days with trainers using this MO.

[Valuist]

I don't think she's ever worked farther than 4 furlongs. Perhaps we will see her at Del Mar :confused:

Judging from that, maybe they are waiting for Fairplex. :D

[letswastemoney]

Of the three horses you claim will offer better value, two of them are 3x maiden losers with unspectacular finishes in their most recent races. (Weak ROI scenario). The other is stretching from a closing effort at 6f to 8.5f-- another weak ROI scenario-- and while the sire is a positive on the stretchout, the dam is probably not. (Neither sib even tried a route from 23 combined races; the dam herself was 5th beaten by nine lengths in her only route try.)


Yes, and Sadler is a positive when stretching out horses and wins at a high percentage with 2nd time starters. The first 2 finishers came back to win from that race.

I understand that closers don't always stretch out. My feeling is to still wait and see how the tote board is trending and take it from there. Obviously, if Belonging starts trending towards 2/1 or less, I will pass.

Sorry if I offended anyone. I did not mean to.

[FantasticDan]

Eblouissante has had 45 published workouts the past 17 months, including at least 2/month since 9/8/11 http://j.mp/Q8Pp4n (http://t.co/w9AMcEOT)Hence the reason for me starting this thread.. I wonder how many works Zenyatta had before her first start..

Not interested in betting the race, and I hope to see her run well.. :ThmbUp:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Yeah with those credentials to the pedigree you aint gettin a price.So what.Don't handicapping prowess us to death.Enjoy the horse and the guy's passion who created this thread.I dig it!

[Ca9]

Friday at Hollywood Park (free PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Eblouissante121116.pdf)).

[Sysonby]

Eblouissante has had 45 published workouts the past 17 months, including at least 2/month since 9/8/11 http://j.mp/Q8Pp4n (http://t.co/w9AMcEOT)

https://twitter.com/Brisnet/status/268077918683541504

That's why I was wondering if there might have been a string of minor injuries, making them back off and come back on training her.

[MaTH716]

Here is my analysis..

I hope Z nation is fully aware this filly is running...
http://thoughtsonracinglifeandmore.com/post/35544832324/zenyattas-half-sister-runs-on-thursday

Why? The majority of Z Nation doesn't bet a dollar.

Seriously, I agree and it would be a good spot to play against her.

[Robert Fischer]

It will be fun to see.

Most interested in her physicality, and if she can show some solid talent.

She's not going to be Zenyatta, but that doesn't mean she can't be a solid race mare.

I like the training, although there were a couple brief gaps. In what little video they had of her training, it was hard to see much. She looked green, but actually focused better when in company. She has significant gallops schooling from the gate, that are not listed as works on the tab. There is a small chance that one or more of these schooling gallops took place during gaps in the work tab, but I would treat them as gaps.

She does have a chance to contend or win, depending on her talent level.
Belonging and Saturday Nite Ride both are complete unknowns with potentially higher ceilings than the rest of the field.
Chestnut Moon and Playful Humor are both solid enough horses who figure to run decent races.

[Some_One]

Didnt the Green Monkey have a similar profile before his debut? late 3yr old first start with a long string of workouts?

[MaTH716]

Didnt the Green Monkey have a similar profile before his debut? late 3yr old first start with a long string of workouts?
Yeah, but he didn't have a famous half sister who loved to dance..............

[nijinski]

That's why I was wondering if there might have been a string of minor injuries, making them back off and come back on training her.

We know how patient her trainer is .
Some have said he needed her to bulk up after those growth spurts .
She's a big girl , not as powerful looking as Zen , still a big filly .

[RXB]

Didnt the Green Monkey have a similar profile before his debut? late 3yr old first start with a long string of workouts?

Yes, but TGM's dam has dropped five foals that have raced to-date; all winless. A far cry from the output of Vertigineux's foals. Thus not really relevant.

[RXB]

Yes, but TGM's dam has dropped five foals that have raced to-date; all winless. A far cry from the output of Vertigineux's foals. Thus not really relevant.

Slight correction: Sheriff Ryan won a maiden claimer this spring. That one cheap win for TGM's dam doesn't alter the essential point.

[FantasticDan]

Drf article re debut:

http://www.drf.com/news/hollywood-park-zenyattas-half-sister-makes-long-awaited-debut

[nijinski]

Drf article re debut:

http://www.drf.com/news/hollywood-park-zenyattas-half-sister-makes-long-awaited-debut

Most certainly was that growth spurt that took her so long , lol .

[Robert Fischer]

she's pretty tall and still has room to add a lot more muscle.

If she runs a solid race here she could build on it.

No Lasix for this debut, and she's owned by the breeder.

[forced89]

She wouldn't be running if they didn't think she has a great chance to win!!

[classhandicapper]

I've been monitoring her works from the start. She must have had some minor issues because every time it looked like they were starting to ask her, she disappeared from the work tab for awhile and practically had to start over. She hasn't shown a lot of speed in her works. I'm not talking about running style here. I am saying I have seen little evidence she has a serious turn of foot like her older sister. The recent works have been a little better though. The one thing that stands out about her is her appearance. She's freaking gorgeous. The few times I saw video of her she had a "regal" look to her.

I hope she has some talent. I think this is a good race to watch, not bet.

[Sysonby]

The growth spurts makes sense for the delay. There would have been bone changes with those and training would have had to slow down to avoid risking her while that was happening. With the record of her dam, I'm hopeful she'll turn out to be a pretty good horse.

[VeryOldMan]

This has been a fun thread - I must admit I'm going to miss the "Waiting For Godot" angle.

[cj]

I hope she has some talent. I think this is a good race to watch, not bet.

I think it is pretty obvious she will be overbet, so I wouldn't necessarily agree that passing is the right option if you have any kind of opinion in the race.

[Robert Fischer]

I think it is pretty obvious she will be overbet, so I wouldn't necessarily agree that passing is the right option if you have any kind of opinion in the race.

there's the :2: who could wire the field for baffert, and there's the :4: who should run a solid race and not take a ton of money.

If there was a real confident opinion or a huge price for either, it would be a value play.

I just can't say that any of these is worth betting, to be honest. Maybe if I had seen the 2 workout or something...

[Robert Fischer]

5 is sadler, but the horse was not at all impressive in the debut.

She sucked up to the flow of the race and didn't do any running. It was not an impressive close.

She does have a good trainer, and this is a weak field. However I would take the other two that I just mentioned over her.

5 horses for the multi's and 5 horse ex bx = :2::4::8::3::5:

the 7 is another horse I know very little about who isn't impossible on paper, but the five above look more probable.

[MightBeSosa]

Crazy low win odds MUCH higher in all the exotics. 14mtp, but was NOT bet heavily in the dd pool.


Edit:3mtp taking heavy action now in the exacta. Much better odds if your alive in the 3/4 DD.

[PhantomOnTour]

EX:
7-8 w 3-4-5-7-8
Win:
7-8

[Robert Fischer]

Eblouissante looks good on-track.

She doesn't look too bony today. She's a big filly too.

The 5 also looks real good out there in the flesh.

[woodtoo]

:4: can steal this one.10/1

[Robert Fischer]

pretty good debut :)

[Stillriledup]

LET THE HYPE BEGIN!

:jump:

[FantasticDan]

That looked kind of familiar... ;) :ThmbUp:

[MightBeSosa]

c'mon, ya'll knew she'd win. Whenever more than two wise guys call a bet against, its a bet on . In this case there were 10,000 wise guys, a near mortal lock.
:D

[PhantomOnTour]

She looked very nice
No idea about the pace and speed figs, but that was visually impressive :ThmbUp:

[098poi]

I don't know about dazzling, brilliant but a credible sustained run on the turn and nice finish!

[Robert Fischer]

the payouts weren't actually that bad. They poured a lot of money in on that 5 horse.

[Midnight Cruiser]

Maybe not Zenyatta, but still a nice 1st outing nonetheless....

[Sysonby]

Yeah, she clearly had tons of run in the stretch, very nice race for her debut

[Stillriledup]

the payouts weren't actually that bad. They poured a lot of money in that 5 horse.

Im shocked this horse didnt pay 2.80, what were people thinking.

[duncan04]

Impressive run by her today. Won by 4 lengths. Nice closing kick

[pandy]

That was impressive. She was debuting at a mile and a sixteenth. That was a powerful debut, very few horses win their debuts going two turns on dirt let alone draw off like that. Sheriffs put 45 works and 24 miles (good job by Christina on TVG) into this big filly. He is a patient man.

[MightBeSosa]

Im shocked this horse didnt pay 2.80, what were people thinking.

She really wasn't pounded by the public. Enough 'smart' money in the pool that (ripped up tickets) to pad the price.

[Stillriledup]

She really wasn't pounded by the public. Enough 'smart' money in the pool that (ripped up tickets) to pad the price.

I guess so, strange doings in the PM pool but the 'believers' got rewarded.

[johnhannibalsmith]

They reportedly have a N2L picked out in 2015, but publicly don't want to get ahead of themselves.

[Robert Fischer]

She really wasn't pounded by the public. Enough 'smart' money in the pool that (ripped up tickets) to pad the price.

good point. Horselovers/fans had their day today, which is cool.
Eblouissante probably paid off for some of the better workout scouts as well. It's clear (now) that she can actually run a little.

[VeryOldMan]

They reportedly have a N2L picked out in 2015, but publicly don't want to get ahead of themselves.

LOL!

Looks like this thread will live for another day - glad she won.

[KirisClown]

UUYiCjcfBf4

[v j stauffer]

I don't know about dazzling, brilliant but a credible sustained run on the turn and nice finish!

Dazzling and Brilliant are two of the many English translations of the French word Eblouissante.

[bks]

Gaze into your crystal ball: what are the fair value odds that she runs against males at least once in her career?

[johnhannibalsmith]

Dazzling and Brilliant are two of the many English translations of the French word Eblouissante.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

I thought that was pretty good.

[bks]

And you gotta love Vic posting between races :)

[098poi]

Dazzling and Brilliant are two of the many English translations of the French word Eblouissante.

I took french in high school (barely passed), I must have been out the day we learned that word.

[ten2oneormore]

She probably can't run on dirt.




good point. Horselovers/fans had their day today, which is cool.
Eblouissante probably paid off for some of the better workout scouts as well. It's clear (now) that she can actually run a little.

There were 5 horses (2,3,4,5,7) in that field that were all working sharp according to clockers which is most likely why late money went elsewhere.

[Shelby]

That was a good race :)

She looks sooooo much like Z.

I must admit I had a little tear in my eye....I know, I know, I'm a sentimental fool. I loved that the fans got to be in the winning picture.

[maclr11]

She was tremondous, just a gorgeous filly, her turning out to be a runner is just great.
The crowd and the noise at Hollywood was insane for such a huge place.
If she's half as good as Big Z it will be great for the sport.

[RXB]

A respectable debut but sure didn't look like Zenyatta V2 to me. She seems kind of one-paced. Soft opposition making that race appear better than it really was, IMO. We'll see.

[v j stauffer]

That was a good race :)

She looks sooooo much like Z.

I must admit I had a little tear in my eye....I know, I know, I'm a sentimental fool. I loved that the fans got to be in the winning picture.

Didn't announce the order of finish till after it was official. Had that same tear and my wife listened to the call from her office. Couldn't get her to stop crying. Big Fun indeed.

[classhandicapper]

That was about as good a debut as they could hope for.

She had a little better turn of foot than I expected (nice move on the turn), drew off late, and galloped out really well like she hadn't hit bottom. I'd watch her works from here. If she throws in a much faster work, I'd expect her to move forward because I doubt they had her totally cranked for her debut.

I'd run her in an NW1 next. If she runs that well again, then I'd look for a minor stake and go from there.

[5k-claim]

A lot to be happy about.

Happy for Eblouissante. That was a really nice race for a first-time starter.

Happy for all of the connections. $27,000 is a good start in being rewarded for having patience.

Happy for all of those fans who got in the win picture. I am sure that was a big thrill for them.

Happy for John Shirreffs. I respect so much the job he did those years with Z. It is nice to see him rewarded again. It of course remains to be seen how good this filly can be, but she is in excellent hands.

[Robert Fischer]

There were 5 horses (2,3,4,5,7) in that field that were all working sharp according to clockers which is most likely why late money went elsewhere.

Only Saturday Nite Ride(the #2) had the potential to run as well as Eblouissante ran today. If they both had been working well, it would be a pass or use both. If I wasn't impressed with the 2, it would be a pass or only use 'Ebby'.

[RXB]

Only Saturday Nite Ride(the #2) had the potential to run as well as Eblouissante ran today. If they both had been working well, it would be a pass or use both. If I wasn't impressed with the 2, it would be a pass or only use 'Ebby'.

What potential did the #2 have? The dam has thrown nothing but very modest runners and 8.5f figured to be beyond the horse's ideal distance.

The #2 was crawling in the stretch and still almost held for second, which says a lot about the others.

[PaceAdvantage]

That was a powerful debut, very few horses win their debuts going two turns on dirt let alone draw off like that.Except it's not. Dirt that is... ;)

[Stillriledup]

Except it's not. Dirt that is... ;)

It would be very interesting to grab a handful of that surface and test it and see what's really in there at this point.

[PaceAdvantage]

It would be very interesting to grab a handful of that surface and test it and see what's really in there at this point.Interesting to whom?

[Stillriledup]

And you gotta love Vic posting between races :)

That's awesome stuff from one of America's best and most passionate racecallers. Posting to the racefans between races is the racing equivalent of jumping into the front row at Lambeau field after a TD.

[Stillriledup]

Interesting to whom?

If i posted a thread that said "i grabbed a handful of Hollywood, sent it to a lab, got the results back and here's what they said" you're telling me you wouldnt click on that link and read what i came up with? Im thinking you would. ;)

[Tom]

H O Y

[PaceAdvantage]

If i posted a thread that said "i grabbed a handful of Hollywood, sent it to a lab, got the results back and here's what they said" you're telling me you wouldnt click on that link and read what i came up with? Im thinking you would. ;)But I read every post here...I have to...sometimes unfortunately... :lol:

[Steve R]

I haven't seen any figures but if that was better than a BSF 75 or so I'd be surprised.

[JustRalph]

looked pretty green to me............

could be a real threat when she gets it figured out.

Had her ears pricked and did it easy...........

[classhandicapper]

Beyer 85

[Robert Fischer]

What potential did the #2 have?
She had a chance to win clear, if things went her way.

[davew]

I liked how Eblouissante ran

off the pace, slowly gaining on leaders
neck to neck head bobbing for lead (like Zenyatta frequently did)

and then decided was just tired of that and took off to win by 4

[RXB]

She had a chance to win clear, if things went her way.

Things did go her way; clear lead on a below-par pace. Still floundered to a 33-second final fraction.

[Robert Fischer]

Things did go her way; clear lead on a below-par pace. Still floundered to a 33-second final fraction.

Thought you were asking a genuine question.




here are the notes to do with as you please:

-
The #2 was the horse with potentially the highest ceiling of the horses who had previously raced.

A horse's "ceiling" would be the best a horse could possibly run. The maximum potential result. #2's ceiling was greatly dependent on her unknown factors. Each of those factors is going to have a maximum(ceiling) and a minimum possibility as far as how much they would contribute to the ability of the horse.
#4 is a good comparison, because her ceiling was barely higher than her expected performance. She didn't have variance in unknown factors. The #2's expected performance was significantly lower than her possible ceiling.
Eblouissante meanwhile was similar to the #2 as far as having a ceiling that was both unknown and high(relative to the field), and her expected performance could actually have been considered lower than both the 2 and the 4.
The comment that you replied to was basically saying that a good visual handicapper could have watched some of the works for Eblouissante and easily noticed that her expected performance was as at least as high as the 2 and the 4, and that the probability of her having a high ceiling was actually more than a distant possibility. That same visual handicapper could have seen the 2 train and would have either been able to lower the ceiling for the 2 or not (leaving two contenders).

[RXB]

The post to which I originally referred claimed that the #2 horse "had the potential to run as well as Eblouissante did today." The horse has several sibs with about 50 combined starts; highest Beyer for those sibs was 68. It got drilled in its first start. So what would indicate that the #2 horse had the potential to run to the same level as Eblouissante?

[Robert Fischer]

The post to which I originally referred claimed that the #2 horse "had the potential to run as well as Eblouissante did today." The horse has several sibs with about 50 combined starts; highest Beyer for those sibs was 68. It got drilled in its first start. So what would indicate that the #2 horse had the potential to run to the same level as Eblouissante?
We are pretty far apart here.

Let's just enjoy Eblouissante. :ThmbUp:
http://betfairhollywoodpark.com/images/3390t.jpghttp://oi50.tinypic.com/2vxrrxc.jpg

[cj]

Beyer 85


Hmmm, seems a little high to me. I gave her about the equivalent of a 79.

[RXB]

Hmmm, seems a little high to me. I gave her about the equivalent of a 79.

They seem to have bumped up that number by a few points compared to the sprints. Times were very close to normal yesterday; I would put 1:45.27 at about 80-81. Don't understand how they came up with 85.

[RXB]

Don't understand how they came up with 85.

Actually, I haven't expressed this accurately. I understand exactly how they did it; same M.O. for quite awhile now. "Well, she won by 4.25 lengths and our projections for the other horses will be too low for our liking if we only give her the 80 that the data indicates. And if the data is in conflict with our projections, well of course it's the data that's incorrect. Therefore the route variant must be increased."

[cj]

Actually, I haven't expressed this accurately. I understand exactly how they did it; same M.O. for quite awhile now. "Well, she won by 4.25 lengths and our projections for the other horses will be too low for our liking if we only give her the 80 that the data indicates. And if the data is in conflict with our projections, well of course it's the data that's incorrect. Therefore the route variant must be increased."

I really don't follow his figures any longer, but when I did it was a trend that was definitely on the rise.

[nijinski]

Vertigineaux was sent to Street Cry . There awaits with much anticipation , a full sister to Zenyatta in 2013 .

[Robert Fischer]

Vertigineaux was sent to Street Cry . There awaits with much anticipation , a full sister to Zenyatta in 2013 .

That will be neat. :jump:

[nijinski]

That will be neat. :jump:

I believe this was a send back as the first mating didn't take and my wishes for her are to stay healthy and happy as she is getting on in years .
If all goes well twitter will be lit up .

[FantasticDan]

Back in the gate this Saturday:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/75025/eblouissante-to-make-next-start-at-hollywood

http://www.drf.com/news/hollywood-park-zenyattas-sister-eblouissante-faces-winners-saturday

[RXB]

Only four opponents, none of whom look like much. Yawn.

[tucker6]

Only four opponents, none of whom look like much. Yawn.
... and so it begins. Z2.0 ready for takeoff.

[5k-claim]

... and so it begins. Z2.0 ready for takeoff. You got that right.

If she is able to win then Shirreffs will have picked up about $55,000 for her owner in her first two starts. That is a good start in my book. I absolutely trust Shirreffs to bring the horse along exactly as she needs to be, and do well for her owner. I really like that guy's style.

Meanwhile, the peanut gallery should be good for a few chuckles along the way.

.

[classhandicapper]

Actually, I haven't expressed this accurately. I understand exactly how they did it; same M.O. for quite awhile now. "Well, she won by 4.25 lengths and our projections for the other horses will be too low for our liking if we only give her the 80 that the data indicates. And if the data is in conflict with our projections, well of course it's the data that's incorrect. Therefore the route variant must be increased."

That's more or less the Jerry Brown approach. The assumption is that the track changed speeds or that sprints were different from routes etc...

There is no perfect methodology.

[gm10]

That is a very weak race. She's no Zenyatta (by a long way) but she should be able to win. The Only Key was decent in England, but hasn't shown anything yet in the US.

[Stillriledup]

Injured heading to paddock, late scratch.

According to TVG, the injury is minor.

[Robert Fischer]

Injured heading to paddock, late scratch.

According to TVG, the injury is minor.

bad news. : (

hopefully she is fine.

I have a hunch the :4: will run well here.

[Stillriledup]

bad news. : (

hopefully she is fine.

I have a hunch the :4: will run well here.

First time 'fresh' new trainer. Adding the blinkers is usually a good sign (if she explodes and runs off, people will say it must have been the blinkers)

[v j stauffer]

What a total BUMMER she scratched:mad:

[Stillriledup]

What a total BUMMER she scratched:mad:

Love the 'watch out Maldo' call.

Lets just hope she's ok. Do you think she will run on conventional dirt at SA or might we not see her until Hollywood Spring (if the track is still open) or DMR?

[v j stauffer]

Love the 'watch out Maldo' call.

Lets just hope she's ok. Do you think she will run on conventional dirt at SA or might we not see her until Hollywood Spring (if the track is still open) or DMR?

If she's doing well I have no doubt he'll run her at SA. They were talking La Canada if all went well today.

[mostpost]

If she's doing well I have no doubt he'll run her at SA. They were talking La Canada if all went well today.
Apparently it was not that serious. She worked five furlongs in a minute flat today.

[Rex Phinney]

Too bad she didn't get another crack at Hollywood, I don't see her having much success on the runway that is Santa Anita.

[v j stauffer]

Too bad she didn't get another crack at Hollywood, I don't see her having much success on the runway that is Santa Anita.

Good horses will find a way to win if the run on broken glass.

[mostpost]

Too bad she didn't get another crack at Hollywood, I don't see her having much success on the runway that is Santa Anita.

Why would you think that? True, she is a half sister to Zenyatta and most of Zenyatta's success was on synthetic, but Eblouissante is by Bernardini and Bernardini won many races on dirt. E will win many races on dirt and synthetic.
Maybe on grass.

[Rex Phinney]

Why would you think that? True, she is a half sister to Zenyatta and most of Zenyatta's success was on synthetic, but Eblouissante is by Bernardini and Bernardini won many races on dirt. E will win many races on dirt and synthetic.
Maybe on grass.

It doesn't have anything todo with Zenyatta or Bernardini. She looked in her lone race like she was going to be a deep closer, she is getting ready to take a step up in class (her next race may now be at the stakes level). She can't run the same race she won with at Hollywood in a stakes at Santa Anita, she won't pass enough horses to even hit the board.

I'm not saying she isn't good enough, I'm saying closers at Santa Anita are not getting a fair shake right now. Anyone falling further than 5 lengths off the pace is having the devil's time winning any races.

[letswastemoney]

Good horses will find a way to win if the run on broken glass.
This just isn't true. Cigar wasn't the same on turf, was he not a good horse?

[Stillriledup]

This just isn't true. Cigar wasn't the same on turf, was he not a good horse?

Do we know for sure that the turf was the problem or could have Cigar went back to the turf AFTER he became a superstar and handled it perfectly?

[v j stauffer]

This just isn't true. Cigar wasn't the same on turf, was he not a good horse?

True? What do you mean true? :bang: I was making a simple statement that good horses are likely to win horse races.

Not specific to Cigar or any other particular horse just an often said general thought by many fans and horsemen.

Maybe he would have sucked on broken glass but dominated on broken plastic!

Nureyev might not have liked it at Caliente. Just wouldn't have been the same horse. :bang: :bang:

[Robert Fischer]

either way Eb will have needed to make continued progress.

The scratched race ended up coming up tougher than expected. The winner from that race may have been very tough to catch.

I don't see her as being one dimensional so far. It's too early to tell, and it isn't best for every horse to be pressing the pace.

Lets enjoy the fact that she's a runner, and if we bet - maybe make a buck with or against her.

[RXB]

Do we know for sure that the turf was the problem or could have Cigar went back to the turf AFTER he became a superstar and handled it perfectly?

He was doing not much of anything on the grass for quite some time; when they finally relented and put him back on dirt (the surface on which he broke his maiden in good style) it was like flipping an off/on switch. So it's rather evident that he was far better suited to dirt than grass.

[cj]

He was doing not much of anything on the grass for quite some time; when they finally relented and put him back on dirt (the surface on which he broke his maiden in good style) it was like flipping an off/on switch. So it's rather evident that he was far better suited to dirt than grass.


You never know though. Not many would have thought John Henry would win G1s on dirt after he had switched to turf and exploded.

[Sysonby]

John Henry won a few on dirt very early in his career, apparently hated Fairgrounds track though.

[Stillriledup]

He was doing not much of anything on the grass for quite some time; when they finally relented and put him back on dirt (the surface on which he broke his maiden in good style) it was like flipping an off/on switch. So it's rather evident that he was far better suited to dirt than grass.

maybe he was just a late developer and the timing of putting him on dirt made a light switch go ON.....once that light switch went ON, he might have been able to run well on turf too, but he was so good on dirt they didnt need to have to find out.

[SharpCat]

maybe he was just a late developer and the timing of putting him on dirt made a light switch go ON.....once that light switch went ON, he might have been able to run well on turf too, but he was so good on dirt they didnt need to have to find out.


I believe he was a different animal on dirt. If indeed a light switch went on and they thought he had similar ability on turf they would have taken a shot in the Arlington Million.

[Sysonby]

If anybody's interested, there's a good documentary on John Henry called John Henry: The Steel-Driving Racehorse. It's a little hard to find but it has a facebook page and you can message the producers to order a copy. I watched it a few weeks ago and loved it!

[RXB]

maybe he was just a late developer and the timing of putting him on dirt made a light switch go ON.....once that light switch went ON, he might have been able to run well on turf too, but he was so good on dirt they didnt need to have to find out.

He raced twice in dirt sprints to start his career and broke his maiden in the second start in fine fashion. But then he was switched to grass for some reason and won just once from eleven turf tries (including eight allowance races). On an eight-race grass losing streak, they put him back on dirt. He immediately blew the doors off an allowance field in sensational style, then won the NYRA Mile by seven lengths.

The chances that it was strictly coincidental timing, that the surface switch had little or nothing to do with his immediate and drastic improvement, is almost nil.

[classhandicapper]

That surface switch question always intrigues me because I'm not very good at it. Over the years I've seen a lot of horses whose PP's screamed they were way better on one surface than the other because they moved up sharply on the switch (sometimes more than once). But later in their careers some of them hold their form on the switch back and still others VERY ODDLY hold it for ONE RACE and then go backwards.

[FantasticDan]

Hopefully no accidents this time, 2nd start on THU at SA:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/75553/eblouissante-entered-jan-17-at-santa-anita

[classhandicapper]

Hopefully no accidents this time, 2nd start on THU at SA:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/75553/eblouissante-entered-jan-17-at-santa-anita

Looks like a good spot to test her on dirt and then move on to a minor stake if she wins.

[Stillriledup]

Get ready for 5 solid hours of Zenyatta highlights on TVG today.

[Striker]

Looks like a good spot to test her on dirt and then move on to a minor stake if she wins.
The only stake that she would fit in during Feb. at SA would be the G2 Santa Maria on Feb. 16th at 8.5f. They might have to ship her for another stake, or just go on with the nw2x condition.

[forced89]

I just boxed a :1: :2: :3: Exacta. Hype always scares me.

[Robert Fischer]

I just boxed a :1: :2: :3: Exacta. Hype always scares me.

:1: and :3: are solid enough and in enough form to provide a target.

:2: is probably training for a turf race, but who knows? solid early speed.

I'm probably not betting on or against Eblouissante today.

[davew]

has over 90% of show pool now

[MightBeSosa]

More money than brains

#1 went 7-4-2 last 3 flashes.

Hype was for the debut. After that, no excuses.

Just because everyone is talking about a horse, that doesn't equate to hype. Taking 2-1 against what's probably a very nice horse and well meant, is , in the long run, not smart.

You probably lose 90% of your money , for the occasional bragging right.

[bks]

Zenyatta she ain't, but a nice win for her second in a row.

[Robert Fischer]

all right Eblouissante ! :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

She won, but it didn't look like she moved forward off her first start. About the only significant positive I can take away from this (other than the fact that she won again) is that she went out fairly well after the finish and looked like she might appreciate an extra 1/2 furlong if they can find a 1 1/8th race for her.

[MightBeSosa]

Just looking at the charts I'm tempted to say the track was speed favoring and might have been against her style, but the running time was mediocre. The MDC 50,000 that came next went 4/5 faster.

[classhandicapper]

It's not fair to compare her to Zenyatta. The chances of her being that good were close to 0%. If I owed her I'd be ecstatic. She's 2 for 2, won on dirt and synth, may like turf, might still get better, and might improve going longer. She's a nice filly and we don't know what's next.

[Robert Fischer]

The MDC 50,000 that came next went 4/5 faster.

Those were males and they opened in 23.54 vs 24.70 in the Eblouissante race.

[Robert Fischer]

she raced against 3 horses who wouldn't be favored in a good 30k claimer, and the #2 is a turf horse that was either training or reaching.

But she looked very nice in the paddock and post parade, and she responded before the turn and clearly outclassed this bunch.

As a fan it's really cool that Zenyatta's sister is looking great, and as a bettor you are praying for a class hike. It's a good thing. A rare win-win.

[RXB]

It's not fair to compare her to Zenyatta. The chances of her being that good were close to 0%. If I owed her I'd be ecstatic. She's 2 for 2, won on dirt and synth, may like turf, might still get better, and might improve going longer. She's a nice filly and we don't know what's next.

Yesterday's race just firmed up my impression after her maiden win: one-paced. Can sustain an extended run but lacks any real burst, which makes me wonder if dirt might not be the ideal surface for her. The farther, the better for this one, I believe.

What a beautiful animal, though. She looks so good that I have to think she has a future of some kind.

[classhandicapper]

What a beautiful animal, though. She looks so good that I have to think she has a future of some kind.

Yea, she's really outstanding in the looks department.

[redshift1]

What a beautiful animal, though. She looks so good that I have to think she has a future of some kind.

Excellent breeding potential without racing again, if she gets a graded victory then who knows.

[MightBeSosa]

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unlocking-winners-handicapping/archive/2013/01/18/looking-at-eblouissante-through-herd-dynamics-and-emotional-conformation.aspx

have fun with that.

still waiting to see the fig on that last race, must have been slow, don't care if the md50's were males .

[Striker]

According to Steve Andersen of the DRF, connections are considering her for the G1 Santa Margarita on March 16th.

[098poi]

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unlocking-winners-handicapping/archive/2013/01/18/looking-at-eblouissante-through-herd-dynamics-and-emotional-conformation.aspx

have fun with that.

still waiting to see the fig on that last race, must have been slow, don't care if the md50's were males .

Interesting article. I noticed how big Eblouissante is and then I watched Zenyatta's maiden race (there is a link in the article) and she looks like another breed of animal next to the others, just huge.

[FrankieFigs]

According to Steve Andersen of the DRF, connections are considering her for the G1 Santa Margarita on March 16th.

Think she will be a huge underlay. Looking to bet against her.

[redshift1]

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unlocking-winners-handicapping/archive/2013/01/18/looking-at-eblouissante-through-herd-dynamics-and-emotional-conformation.aspx

have fun with that.




Other than eschewing the scientific process it might have merit as an occultistic handicapping system for Wiccans.

.

[Robert Fischer]

^ the guy seems to make a whole "art" out of it doesn't he...

Still, there's something to be said about practical things like a horse's willingness to pass horses. Whether it's a physical limitation or a "herd instinct" good stuff to note.

[MightBeSosa]

Other than eschewing the scientific process it might have merit as an occultistic handicapping system for Wiccans.

.

Even if we give SOME credence to the theory, still need to see it applied before the fact to real horse races. Waxing poetic after the races are run has minimal monetary value.

[5k-claim]

Other than eschewing the scientific process it might have merit as an occultistic handicapping system for Wiccans. That piece started out using the names of real animals but in true "based on a true story" fashion ventured off into something much more creative.

I liked it. I could see it in book form at the library sitting on the shelf next to 'Charlotte's Web' and 'Stuart Little'.

.

[Show Me the Wire]

Even if we give SOME credence to the theory, still need to see it applied before the fact to real horse races. Waxing poetic after the races are run has minimal monetary value.

How many times have you seen a horse come to the leader and then seems to hang, and when another horse ranges up on the outside takes the lead the hanger re breaks and runs with the new leader leaving the former leader behind? It happens everyday, not only on the front end but in the middle and the back of the pack.

Herd dynamics happen in every race and understanding which horses strongly exhibit pack instincts is valuable knowledge.

[JustRalph]

Saw a headline

" The magnificent Elblousiant"

Here we go again...........

[RXB]

Headlines aside, I can't imagine her being bet off the board next out in a G1/G2 dirt race. Everyone with a copy of DRF is going to look at her N1X Beyer figure and have serious doubts.

[redshift1]

How many times have you seen a horse come to the leader and then seems to hang, and when another horse ranges up on the outside takes the lead the hanger re breaks and runs with the new leader leaving the former leader behind? It happens everyday, not only on the front end but in the middle and the back of the pack.

Herd dynamics happen in every race and understanding which horses strongly exhibit pack instincts is valuable knowledge.

How do you quantify your premise? is a tendency to hang a function of herd instinct or fatigue? Would herd instinct be more prominent in sprints or routes?

That's not to impugn the concept but the implementation of the concept as a handicapping tool seems as viable as picking winners based on variances in lunar phases.

Aren't there already handicapping principles in place that describe the same behavior?

Seems at best redundant.

.

[CincyHorseplayer]

How do you quantify your premise? is a tendency to hang a function of herd instinct or fatigue? Would herd instinct be more prominent in sprints or routes?

That's not to impugn the concept but the implementation of the concept as a handicapping tool seems as viable as picking winners based on variances in lunar phases.

Aren't there already handicapping principles in place that describe the same behavior?

Seems at best redundant.

.

I'm more stimulated and thorough during a full moon phase.I don't sleep.Great virtue on nights you are handicapping.

[Show Me the Wire]

How do you quantify your premise? is a tendency to hang a function of herd instinct or fatigue? Would herd instinct be more prominent in sprints or routes?

That's not to impugn the concept but the implementation of the concept as a handicapping tool seems as viable as picking winners based on variances in lunar phases.

Aren't there already handicapping principles in place that describe the same behavior?

Seems at best redundant.

.

All good questions, let me start with the easiest to answer. first a "true" hanger is a horse that tired or fatigued due to not being fit enough, or is starting a downward form cycle. The behavior, I am highlighting is a horse which looks like a hanger, but the performance is based on herd tendencies, especially not wanting to pass the leader or be on the lead alone. This horse's failure to win is not due to fatigue, but herd instinct. Also this type of horse may have more talent than the eventual winner, but will not use it.

Second, distance does not matter. The best way to overcome the herd tendency is a drop in class.

Third, to me the value is in the knowledge you can eliminate what looks like a strong contender for the win or top spot depending on the composition of the opponents.

Fourth, there are always similar principles in handicapping. Quinn's book Class of the Field is an example of one.

I am not familiar with the Blood Horse author's work. I wanted to comment on the fact that herd dynamics do indeed impact races.

[5k-claim]

All good questions, let me start with the easiest to answer. first a "true" hanger is a horse that tired or fatigued due to not being fit enough, or is starting a downward form cycle. The behavior, I am highlighting is a horse which looks like a hanger, but the performance is based on herd tendencies, especially not wanting to pass the leader or be on the lead alone. This horse's failure to win is not due to fatigue, but herd instinct. Also this type of horse may have more talent than the eventual winner, but will not use it. The question was, "How do you quantify your premise?"

Third, to me the value is in the knowledge you can eliminate what looks like a strong contender for the win or top spot depending on the composition of the opponents. Got any upcoming examples?

I am not familiar with the Blood Horse author's work. I wanted to comment on the fact that herd dynamics do indeed impact races. Yes, they can. That is one of the reasons we gallop and breeze in sets. And one of the reasons we add/remove blinkers. At least on occasion.

But watching a race result on television and then writing a paragraph or two (or five) about the role of "herd dynamics" on individual horses in that race? Well, maybe or maybe not... I would personally tend to put 'herd dynamics' in that category of race factors that observers will "see" in pretty close proportion to how much they want to "see". It is not a myth, but an analogy that does come to mind is when a group of 'Bigfoot Hunters' spend the night out in the woods and ... surprise! ... report in the morning that they heard a Bigfoot making some noises behind the trees. Especially if they are wanting to sell you some Bigfoot memorabilia.

.

[Show Me the Wire]

The question was, "How do you quantify your premise?"

I don't know how to answer your question. I am not sure what you mean, ie. a math formula, pps??

Its there to see, if you know what to look for on the track and in the pps. Since you mentioned blinkers and training sets, I am sure you are aware of the phenomena of "waiting".

When I watch races I look for horses that while rallying duck for cover from the horses in front, horses that lean into the horse it catches-up to, horses that wait and re break, but never strike the lead. These are a few visual clues of negative herd influence.

On the other hand, I look for horses that make moves without company, how many strides it takes a horse to pass another horse, once they hook up, will a horse willingly split horses or move up on the inside of other horses. These are positive visual clues.

I am not adverse to giving out examples. This topic of herd dynamics has been covered, many times before, on this site. If I recall correctly we had a continuing thread were examples had been given out by me prior to races.

As I stated earlier, to me the value is in the knowledge you can eliminate what looks like a strong contender for the win or top spot depending on the composition of the opponents.

[MightBeSosa]

Headlines aside, I can't imagine her being bet off the board next out in a G1/G2 dirt race. Everyone with a copy of DRF is going to look at her N1X Beyer figure and have serious doubts.

Not surprised the fig came up slower than the debut. Best I can say, is maybe thats a good thing.

[MightBeSosa]

Sure , we know there are some horses more 'willing' to pass than others. But considering how many other things a handicapper needs to consider, do we really have the time/energy to make this a prime focus?

I think noting extreme hangers is probably enough to keep you out of trouble.

[Show Me the Wire]

I don't think it should be a prime focus. My primary use is to eliminate what looks like a strong contender from the win spot.

It is also valuable, to me, when I identify a race filled with these types.

[Show Me the Wire]

reshift and 5k-claim:

You both asked:

The question was, "How do you quantify your premise?"


Duh on my part. Sorry for having a brain freeze attack, which caused my failure in understanding how to answer.

Any horse showing a 1 1/2 length or longer lead in the stretch (1/8) pole and is beaten less than a length by only one horse.

For those coming from the pack to the leader or the second horse it is basically the reverse making up 2 lengths or more, while failing to beat the horse by more than 1/2 length or more.

Easy pattern to spot in the pps.

[5k-claim]

reshift and 5k-claim:

You both asked:



Duh on my part. Sorry for having a brain freeze attack, which caused my failure in understanding how to answer.

Any horse showing a 1 1/2 length or longer lead in the stretch (1/8) pole and is beaten less than a length by only one horse.

For those coming from the pack to the leader or the second horse it is basically the reverse making up 2 lengths or more, while failing to beat the horse by more than 1/2 length or more.

Easy pattern to spot in the pps. No problem. I like a lot of what you have written in this thread.

Like what happens, there is perhaps a little bit of a difference in what you are calling "herd dynamics" and the definition that Blood-Horse article "The herd dynamics and emotional conformation of Eblouissante" was using. So, a difference (at least in scope) in definition of the term(s). I guess.

What you have written in your posts strikes me as practical and useful observations that you are making and then using to your advantage in handicapping races. I can definitely see you doing well with it. If I ever start handicapping again I would suppose that making observations like that would be a part of my own approach. (Whatever I was using 20 years ago when I gave up handicapping definitely wasn't working, so there would be no sense in going back to that.)

In contrast to your posts, a few minutes into that Blood-Horse article gave me the impression that I was reading about two characters from a children's book. It made for a nice story, but...

.

[FantasticDan]

NY bound:

http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-notes-eblouissante-headed-new-york

Hopefully she'll train to Shirreff's satisfaction and manage an entry or two.. :p :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

NY bound:

http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-notes-eblouissante-headed-new-york

Hopefully she'll train to Shirreff's satisfaction and manage an entry or two.. :p :ThmbUp:

I always thought Zenyatta would have loved the big wide sweeping turns at Belmont to make her first move into contention. She was huge and may have been even better at Belmont. Shirreffs decided to make the move east a few years late.

Looking forward to seeing Ebby in the flesh. She looks like a magnificent horse on TV/video. Hasn't run very fast yet, but who knows.

[cj]

The Rockies are much easier to traverse these days, apparently.

[Cholly]

The Rockies are much easier to traverse these days, apparently.
Mountains never were the problem for Zenyatta--she made it to Oak Lawn a couple of times.

It was when they asked her to swim across the Mississippi River that she said NFWay.

[ronsmac]

I always thought Zenyatta would have loved the big wide sweeping turns at Belmont to make her first move into contention. She was huge and may have been even better at Belmont. Shirreffs decided to make the move east a few years late.

Looking forward to seeing Ebby in the flesh. She looks like a magnificent horse on TV/video. Hasn't run very fast yet, but who knows.
She did go undefeated in California, so from that perspective he probably did a pretty good job.

[classhandicapper]

The Rockies are much easier to traverse these days, apparently.

LOL

I was surprised (pleasantly) that he decided to move so many horses to NY. It will be nice having a competent non cheater to bet on once in awhile. lol

[Striker]

Andy Harrington on Ebloissante's workout today-- "broke 10 lengths behind barnmate finishing 8 lengths back while under steady pressure in 48.1, 1:01. Not on her game right now."

[OTM Al]

Well there goes the perfect record.....

[classhandicapper]

Andy Harrington on Ebloissante's workout today-- "broke 10 lengths behind barnmate finishing 8 lengths back while under steady pressure in 48.1, 1:01. Not on her game right now."

If she doesn't come back around soon, a retirement is probably not too far off.

[RXB]

Black type raises a broodmare's value significantly, especially graded black type so I think they'd probably like to give her a real chance at it. Mind you, they were talking about the G1 Santa Margarita a couple of months ago and Eblouissante had shown nothing to indicate that she was ready for that level of competition so I think they need to get real about where she fits even if her training does come around.

[TheEdge07]

Off topic-Zenyatta's colt named Cozmic One today:lol:

[classhandicapper]

A little better

Eblouissante 04/17/2013 HOL 5F 1:00.60H All Weather Track

[Striker]

Off topic-Zenyatta's colt named Cozmic One today:lol:
To add to that, and not sure if you know that Vertigineux foaled a full brother to Zenyatta on April 9th.

[FantasticDan]

Ebby now in a NY state of mind..

http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-shirreffs-new-town

[FantasticDan]

Ebby been working well at BEL of late, David Grening tweeted this re this morning's work:

Eblouissante, in company w/ Tiz Gianni, works 5f in 101:44, last 1-4 24.05, pulling away by 2 or 3. Out 6f in 1:14.12, 7f in 1:27.34. Solid.

Still looks doubtful we'll see her race at BEL before closing..

[FantasticDan]

Still looks doubtful we'll see her race at BEL before closing..Hm, maybe there will be a Belmont start, assuming she continues to satisfy Shirreffs with her next work..

http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-park-eblouissante-getting-closer-return

[classhandicapper]

Hm, maybe there will be a Belmont start, assuming she continues to satisfy Shirreffs with her next work..

http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-park-eblouissante-getting-closer-return

I've seen her on video, but I've heard she's even better looking in person.

[FantasticDan]

Ebby out yesterday morning at Belmont:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BNfQe4VCAAAf2VJ.jpg

https://twitter.com/DRFLivingston/status/348976725075558400

[FantasticDan]

Possibly going in the G3 Shuvee @SAR:

http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-zenyattas-half-sister-eblouissante-possible-shuvee

[classhandicapper]

Possibly going in the G3 Shuvee @SAR:

http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-zenyattas-half-sister-eblouissante-possible-shuvee

Like I need an incentive to go to Saratoga on the first weekend. :lol:

[FantasticDan]

Either going in the 7/20 Shuvee or a 7/22 optional claimer, assuming of course her upcoming work pleases Shirreffs.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/79366/eblouissante-to-start-at-saratoga

[classhandicapper]

Entered in the Grade 3 Shuvee, but it looks like a very difficult spot. Off the layoff, not much speed in the race, and a very tough Grade 3.

[FantasticDan]

Entered in the Grade 3 Shuvee, but it looks like a very difficult spot. Off the layoff, not much speed in the race, and a very tough Grade 3.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/79483/eblouissante-could-dazzle-in-shuvee-return

Hopefully she'll test her mettle in the Shuvee, but she still might go in the optional claimer on 7/22 instead.

[cj]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/79483/eblouissante-could-dazzle-in-shuvee-return

Hopefully she'll test her mettle in the Shuvee, but she still might go in the optional claimer on 7/22 instead.

I wouldn't give her much shot in the Shuvee, particularly off the layoff.

[FantasticDan]

From David Grening's twitter feed:

Though Shirreffs still plans to enter Eblouissante in allowance for Monday he said "more than likely she's going to run in Shuvee" Saturday

:ThmbUp:

[pandy]

Huge step up in class. I picked Sea Island but it's a great sign that Sherriffs is picking this spot over the allowance. Obviously he feels she is a stakes horse.

[FantasticDan]

Another tweet from Grening:

Monday's 2-other-than allowance race did not fill, so Eblouissante has no choice but to run in Saturday's Shuvee.

[FantasticDan]

I wouldn't give her much shot in the Shuvee, particularly off the layoff.Shirreffs shares your concerns:

“[The Shuvee is] very tough. You see her numbers compared to those of some of the other fillies, and she’s going to really have to step up her game. We’ll see. It’s been a long time, and it’s a change in surfaces from what she’s been running on.”

[Robert Fischer]

I wouldn't give her much shot in the Shuvee, particularly off the layoff.

Should be a great bet-against.

She has some talent, but has given no indication that she can run with this company.

[Robert Fischer]

she raced against 3 horses who wouldn't be favored in a good 30k claimer, and the #2 is a turf horse that was either training or reaching.

But she looked very nice in the paddock and post parade, and she responded before the turn and clearly outclassed this bunch.

As a fan it's really cool that Zenyatta's sister is looking great, and as a bettor you are praying for a class hike. It's a good thing. A rare win-win.

comments after her last race.

[Stillriledup]

Should be a great bet-against.

She has some talent, but has given no indication that she can run with this company.

Agree. She's an auto toss, the horses she beat in Calif are stinkers (relatively speaking anyway) this is a much much tougher race. Also, being a 'famous' horse, she will likely be overbet anyway. Looking forward to making a play against her.

[tucker6]

race in 30 minutes. Any final/changing thoughts?

[cordep17]

Looking forward to see how she does. Seems like a really good field.

Flashy American looks to be in really good form and moving up in turn. PP show no ceiling, so he seems like a real nice value in this race, especially considering Eblouissante will probably be bet hard.

[Stillriledup]

My comment (to myself) on the favorite is that she ran her eyeballs out last time......she's 6YO with 8 lifetime starts. Hard for me to back a horse like this at 3-5. I dont like the Ebl either, but someone has to win. The way i'm going today, it will come in 3-7 or 7-3 and everyone will win except me.

[Robert Fischer]

:7::1:

looks like a tough betting race. 7 looks like a lock.

Of the prices I like the 1.
The 5 could always wake up throw her last out.

[mostpost]

I still like Eblouissante, but won't bet for two reasons. One, the odds are too low. Two, due to circumstances beyond my control my TVG account is underfunded.
We shall see.

[JustRalph]

Looked like crap

[mostpost]

Looked like crap
Yeah, she did. That was too bad to be true.

[Stillriledup]

Too bad she wasnt in a race where she was the heavy favorite....wasnt able to really capitalize on her overratedness today.

[Robert Fischer]

layoff hurt her as she was rank in the parade, and fractious in the gate.

Slow pace and lack of position also hurt her.

But she had no business being in this race, even at her best.

[Grits]

Didn't run a lick....and all the devoted were on pins and needles....

I swear family can embarrass us every time. She was worse than a drunk uncle.

[OCF]

Didn't run a lick....and all the devoted were on pins and needles....

I swear family can embarrass us every time. She was worse than a drunk uncle.

Speaking for drunk uncles everywhere, can we take that as a compliment? We have to take what we can get.

[nijinski]

A lot pressure this filly is under . She likely doesn't know it though . :lol:

[Grits]

Speaking for drunk uncles everywhere, can we take that as a compliment? We have to take what we can get.

Indeed. Just keep your hands off your nieces at Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings.. :lol:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Indeed. Just keep your hands off your nieces at Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings.. :lol:

How disgustingly true!I have a drunk uncle that actually permits himself these types of perverted thought while he drools on himself.It's pathetic!:D

[OCF]

How disgustingly true!I have a drunk uncle that actually permits himself these types of perverted thought while he drools on himself.It's pathetic!:D

Degenerate horseplayer is about as bad as it gets in my family. ;)

[Tom]

When I saw the Spotlight figures, I though what is all the fuss about?
This filly is nothing. She was less than that today. Only beat the ambulance because the ambulance driver held it. :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping:

[tucker6]

When I saw the Spotlight figures, I though what is all the fuss about?
This filly is nothing. She was less than that today. Only beat the ambulance because the ambulance driver held it. :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping:
In Hong Kong, that would have gotten a long suspension.

[cordep17]

When I saw the Spotlight figures, I though what is all the fuss about?


The fuss: she runs in a similar fashion as her sister does...Just does it versus worse.
Looks like her, and was undefeated up to today.

Still a good filly, just not what all of the fans were hoping for.

[nijinski]

[QUOTE=cordep17]The fuss: she runs in a similar fashion as her sister does...Just does it versus worse.
Looks like her, and was undefeated up to today.

Still a good filly, just not what all of the fans were hoping for.[/QUO

Can you imagine if and when Samantha Nicole makes her debut .
She is a full sister to Rachel Alexandra . That's going to be a blast .

[classhandicapper]

That was about the worst spot imaginable. She was off a 6 month layoff, she arguably looked much better in her synth win than in her dirt win, she was arguably facing a Grade 1 filly (the winner), she was coming off a weak allowance win, and it was a totally placeless race. That was a rare moment of insanity for Shirreffs. It was such a bad spot, I actually thought there was a chance she might run well because I didn't think it was possible he could that wrong about his own horse.

All that said, she was so bad I have to think she either hated the surface or something else is wrong. There's no way she's that bad. If she's OK and she was mine, I'd send her back to CA or try turf.

[Grits]

Class, when I took first glance at the past performances--I couldn't help it, only four words were obvious, and those were my own.

Well, this is ambitious.. :lol:

[pandy]

The surface was a little funky yesterday, definitely appeared deep and tiring. She was in tough but she also didn't handle the track.

[FantasticDan]

I went to watch the Shuvee replay on NYRA.com, but it's not there with the other races. Anyone know why?

The filly had a pretty serious/scary gate tantrum, enuff that she had to be vet-checked before being reloaded. Totally possible she was seriously overmatched by this field, but also possible she left her race in the gate, or even injured herself.

[Rise Over Run]

I went to watch the Shuvee replay on NYRA.com, but it's not there with the other races. Anyone know why?

It's not available on the replays I get through 4NJBETS either. It must be the result of the loss satellite feed for all racetracks when that race was running. They were out for about 15 minutes yesterday afternoon.

[KingChas]

Sure it is,on bottom of NYRA site,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QVd9jOG4K4&feature=youtube_gdata

[FantasticDan]

Sure it is,on bottom of NYRA site,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QVd9jOG4K4&feature=youtube_gdata
Thanks.. Still, on their replay menu, the race is omitted.

Edit: I was able to watch the replay on the Horse Races Now app as well.

[KingChas]

Thanks.. Still, on their replay menu, the race is omitted.

Guess they pulled a page out of Pace's book by putting the big races separate,like our home page here. ;)
You do have to scroll all the way to bottom of NYRA website to find these.

[FantasticDan]

David Grening tweeted some info this morning:

Eblouissante had a cracked tooth and some cuts on stifles, Shirreffs said. He praised asst starter from keeping her from going under gate.

[Tom]

They put her back in the gate pretty quickly...too quickly?

[OntheRail]

David Grening tweeted some info this morning:

Eblouissante had a cracked tooth and some cuts on stifles, Shirreffs said. He praised asst starter from keeping her from going under gate.

That's a shame.


They put her back in the gate pretty quickly...too quickly?

I had thought J.S. would have called for a gate scratch. But they quickly spun and run her. Maybe Gate Vets need some white gloves or a white towel... a quick rub over would of came up red.


classhandicapper... I had the same thought should try her on TURF.

[FantasticDan]

More from Shirreffs on yesterday's race:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/79560/eblouissante-scraped-up-in-shuvee-defeat

[classhandicapper]

At least there was a reason for running THAT poorly.

JS has been so incredibly patient with her, I saw no reason to run in the Shuvee. Even if the ALW race didn't fill, big deal. Wait for the next one. What's another few weeks when you've already waited so long and that's your training style anyway.

Given that she got pretty banged up, I think they'll give her another shot on dirt. But if she comes up empty again, it will be time to try something else. IMO she looked terrific in her first start on synth.

[cj]

At least there was a reason for running THAT poorly.

JS has been so incredibly patient with her, I saw no reason to run in the Shuvee. Even if the ALW race didn't fill, big deal. Wait for the next one. What's another few weeks when you've already waited so long and that's your training style anyway.

Given that she got pretty banged up, I think they'll give her another shot on dirt. But if she comes up empty again, it will be time to try something else. IMO she looked terrific in her first start on synth.

Thank goodness you aren't a trainer. Why not wait until 2016?

[classhandicapper]

classhandicapper... I had the same thought should try her on TURF.

I'm not much of a pedigree guy, but I always thought Zenyatta would have loved the turf because she ran well on the Pro Ride that all the Euros loved.

Basically, I think if a horse runs well on synth, but is not as good on dirt, you almost have to at least try turf if synth races aren't available. So I would try Ebby on turf if she fails on dirt again.