Who can beat IHA?

[raybo]

Found the following, which aligns with what I thought should have been done with Bodemeiser.

"If your horse doesn’t have a chance for the Triple Crown and you think you may have the best 3-year-old in the country, I don’t think you run your horse three times in five weeks," Crawford said of the decision not to run in the Preakness. "I believe the Belmont Stakes is more of a stallion-making race, and on genetics Dullahan is more likely to run well in New York. We made a decision that was best for the horse and in hindsight I think it’s the right decision."

[sovereign]

Or with Went the Day Well.

[raybo]

Except WTDW had 42 days rest before the Derby, Bode only had 21, so would have been 4 hard run races in 8 weeks.

I think Dullahan is poised for his best effort, especially after this happened in the Derby?:

The Even the Score colt, coming off a victory in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), got knocked around leaving the starting gate, then had to go at least seven wide on the turn for home before running on and finishing third, just a length and a half behind winner I’ll Have Another.

[lamboguy]

NO ONE

except these union guys are deciding to strike and try to block a great day for racing.

i never had a problem with unions until today.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Quote:

"If your horse doesn’t have a chance for the Triple Crown and you think you may have the best 3-year-old in the country, I don’t think you run your horse three times in five weeks," Crawford said of the decision not to run in the Preakness. "I believe the Belmont Stakes is more of a stallion-making race, and on genetics Dullahan is more likely to run well in New York. We made a decision that was best for the horse and in hindsight I think it’s the right decision."

In general, great milers make great stallions, at least in the US, not great 12-furlong horses.

[raybo]

Quote:

"If your horse doesn’t have a chance for the Triple Crown and you think you may have the best 3-year-old in the country, I don’t think you run your horse three times in five weeks," Crawford said of the decision not to run in the Preakness. "I believe the Belmont Stakes is more of a stallion-making race, and on genetics Dullahan is more likely to run well in New York. We made a decision that was best for the horse and in hindsight I think it’s the right decision."

In general, great milers make great stallions, at least in the US, not great 12-furlong horses.

You're, of course, welcome to your opinion, but then we all have opinions. I think having the trouble he had in the Derby and finishing only 1 1/2 lengths behind the winner qualifies Dullahan as more than a "miler".

[Striker]

Huge work the other day from him. He went 22 and 1/5 the opening quarter, 1/2 mile in 45 and 4/5 and galloped out 5f in 58 and 4/5. Javy said that if he had to guess the time for the 1/2 he would have said the horse went in 48 or 49.

[raybo]

Huge work the other day from him. He went 22 and 1/5 the opening quarter, 1/2 mile in 45 and 4/5 and galloped out 5f in 58 and 4/5. Javy said that if he had to guess the time for the 1/2 he would have said the horse went in 48 or 49.

I really believe he is set to run his best in the Belmont. Will, he win? Anything can happen, as we know. The rest, in skipping the Preakness, can only help him, IMO.

If I were to venture a guess, I would say that the trainer already knows he can get the distance, the emphasis, in that fast workout, looks like the trainer's plan to get him out early and avoid as much trouble as possible, looking for a good trip for him.

His start call position in 3 of the last 4 races was no better than 11th, I think that is glaring and needs improvement, if he expects to get a decent trip this time.

[sovereign]

NO ONE

except these union guys are deciding to strike and try to block a great day for racing.

i never had a problem with unions until today.

So if this were a "theme" Triple Crown....

I'll Have Another on Cinco de Mayo... And then he had another in the Preakness... But with the workers ragging on all this union talk.... Hey! :)

[Saratoga_Mike]

You're, of course, welcome to your opinion, but then we all have opinions. I think having the trouble he had in the Derby and finishing only 1 1/2 lengths behind the winner qualifies Dullahan as more than a "miler".

Sorry, I wasn't trying to convey that thought at all. I was just saying "milers" make better stallions (in the US) than successful 12-furlong horses, contrary to what the quoted person said.

[raybo]

Sorry, I wasn't trying to convey that thought at all. I was just saying "milers" make better stallions (in the US) than successful 12-furlong horses, contrary to what the quoted person said.

No apologies necessary, I think what Crawford meant was stallion value (dollars). Belmont is probably the most influential race, in the US, regarding future stud prices. If you win there, you can ask more from those wanting to breed to him. Speed is great, but to get the classic distances a horse should have stamina bred into him/her.

[Saratoga_Mike]

No apologies necessary, I think what Crawford meant was stallion value (dollars). Belmont is probably the most influential race, in the US, regarding future stud prices. If you win there, you can ask more from those wanting to breed to him. Speed is great, but to get the classic distances a horse should have stamina bred into him/her.

Yeah, I think he's totally wrong. If you look at the top 20 stallions in the US today, how many won at 12 furlongs?

[raybo]

Yeah, I think he's totally wrong. If you look at the top 20 stallions in the US today, how many won at 12 furlongs?

Well, you probably ought to consider their breeding also, and, what you might want to look at is, of those who have won the Belmont, how do their stud fees relate to those who haven't. I think you'll find that the Belmont winners, with equal breeding, command a considerably higher price than those that did not win the Belmont.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Well, you probably ought to consider their breeding also, and, what you might want to look at is, of those who have won the Belmont, how do their stud fees relate to those who haven't. I think you'll find that the Belmont winners, with equal breeding, command a considerably higher price than those that did not win the Belmont.

I'm not an expert on breeding and I'm more than willing to admit if I'm wrong. Could you please list some examples?

[raybo]

I'm not an expert on breeding and I'm more than willing to admit if I'm wrong. Could you please list some examples?

No I can't, I said "I think you'll find", not "you will find". Like I said, everyone has opinions.

[Saratoga_Mike]

No I can't, I said "I think you'll find", not "you will find". Like I said, everyone has opinions.

It sounded like you had some interesting facts, but I read too much into your post.

[fmolf]

I am betting on Paynter getting the early uncontested lead and being able to hold off dullahan and a tired i'll have another union rags finishing fourth with another..."troubled trip".Exactly how Da'tara won.

[sovereign]

I am betting on Paynter getting the early uncontested lead and being able to hold off dullahan and a tired i'll have another union rags finishing fourth with another..."troubled trip".Exactly how Da'tara won.

Quite possible since Unstoppable U is now on the fence.

[fmolf]

I also feel baffert and Smith know this is their only chance.Hoping to get at least 10/1 on paynter and will play him in exactas over i'll have another and dullahan and perhaps union rags provided none of these combos are underlaid....If the track comes up sloppy or good i may switch to atigun who is improving and seemed to like the offtrack at oaklawn last out...

[speed]

I also feel baffert and Smith know this is their only chance.Hoping to get at least 10/1 on paynter and will play him in exactas over i'll have another and dullahan and perhaps union rags provided none of these combos are underlaid....If the track comes up sloppy or good i may switch to atigun who is improving and seemed to like the offtrack at oaklawn last out...
Better cross ur fingers and toes for at least 10/1 on Paynter. But i like the selection.

[PaceAdvantage]

Quote:

"If your horse doesn’t have a chance for the Triple Crown and you think you may have the best 3-year-old in the country, I don’t think you run your horse three times in five weeks," Crawford said of the decision not to run in the Preakness. "I believe the Belmont Stakes is more of a stallion-making race, and on genetics Dullahan is more likely to run well in New York. We made a decision that was best for the horse and in hindsight I think it’s the right decision."

In general, great milers make great stallions, at least in the US, not great 12-furlong horses.That comment too struck me as curious...unless there is some hidden agenda in place to start breeding to high endurance stallions that we aren't privy to.... :lol:

[David-LV]

You're, of course, welcome to your opinion, but then we all have opinions. I think having the trouble he had in the Derby and finishing only 1 1/2 lengths behind the winner qualifies Dullahan as more than a "miler".

He made his move in the derby and then he hung like a wet noodle.

Dullahan looks like a nice horse that prefers turf or poly.

_______
David-LV

[turninforhome10]

Go back 60 years and you will find a very slim hint of the Belmont being less important but look at the names.
Native Dancer, Nashua, Damascus, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, AP Indy, all names that have changed the breed. Also notice that the names above had speed to go long. They were much above the performance mean of the average thoroughbred.
The plodders that have won the Belmont examples Temperance Hill, Stage Door Johnny, Victory Gallop, did not enjoy the same success at stud. They live on as broodmare sires more so than sire of sires.
Having studied extensively the breeding pattern of James Keene.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_R._Keene
When he went to England and imported over 40 mares of very stout strains and brought them back to the states and bred to miler speed, he changed the modern thoroughbred and was handsomely rewarded for the gamble. He would go on to win 6 Belmonts.
The moral of the story, IMHO is how you win the Belmont and who you beat.
It also does not hurt to have a nice band of mares to support the stallion.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, you probably ought to consider their breeding also, and, what you might want to look at is, of those who have won the Belmont, how do their stud fees relate to those who haven't. I think you'll find that the Belmont winners, with equal breeding, command a considerably higher price than those that did not win the Belmont.Recent Belmont Winners who won precious little else and their stud fees:

Da'Tara: Found some blurb that he was standing in Venezuela...hot property...not...Horse only sold for $180,000 himself in 2010, so that Belmont win did him absolutely no good.

Jazil: $7,500...need I say more...the only race he ever won besides his maiden victory was the Belmont...$7,500 seems a bit much actually when you think about it, so maybe you do have a point... :lol:

Sarava: $1,500...Belmont Stakes did not help him

Commendable: In Korea last I saw

[raybo]

Recent Belmont Winners who won precious little else and their stud fees:

Da'Tara: Found some blurb that he was standing in Venezuela...hot property...not...Horse only sold for $180,000 himself in 2010, so that Belmont win did him absolutely no good.

Jazil: $7,500...need I say more...the only race he ever won besides his maiden victory was the Belmont...$7,500 seems a bit much actually when you think about it, so maybe you do have a point... :lol:

Sarava: $1,500...Belmont Stakes did not help him

Commendable: In Korea last I saw

Ok, Mike, so let's say sometime in the future you are looking for a sire to cover your mare, hoping for a TC runner in the future, of the 2 races, which would you prefer the sire to have won, the Preakness or the Belmont, everything else being equal of course.

The Belmont is called "the test of champions", for some reason, isn't it.?

[PaceAdvantage]

Ok, Mike, so let's say sometime in the future you are looking for a sire to cover your mare, hoping for a TC runner in the future, of the 2 races, which would you prefer the sire to have won, the Preakness or the Belmont, everything else being equal of course.

The Belmont is called "the test of champions", for some reason, isn't it.?I don't think any of the two is really all that desirable on their own. Horses who have only the Belmont on their resume aren't faring too well lately.

It's called the "Test of the Champion" because it is the race that crowns a Triple Crown winner.

On its own, I think the Belmont Stakes is the lesser of the two, precisely because your higher stud fees in this country are reserved for stallions who produce speedy, precocious runners. That's generally not the trait of a Belmont winner, particularly when the Belmont Stakes is one of the few Grade 1s on their resume.

[turninforhome10]

If we are talking stallion potential, look at the Travers
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travers_Stakes
and also the Jim Dandy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Dandy_Stakes
Seems to me that winning one of these two has shown more modern stallion potential than the Belmont or even the Ky Derby.
The King's Bishop is not any slouch either
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King%27s_Bishop_Stakes
Winning at the Spa is the key?

[lsosa54]

I also feel baffert and Smith know this is their only chance.Hoping to get at least 10/1 on paynter and will play him in exactas over i'll have another and dullahan and perhaps union rags provided none of these combos are underlaid....If the track comes up sloppy or good i may switch to atigun who is improving and seemed to like the offtrack at oaklawn last out...

right now looking like sunny and 84 degrees, with a possible t storm in the pm.

[sovereign]

Optimizer FTW!

And no. No alcohol was involved in this posting. :)

[Saratoga_Mike]

I don't think any of the two is really all that desirable on their own. Horses who have only the Belmont on their resume aren't faring too well lately.

It's called the "Test of the Champion" because it is the race that crowns a Triple Crown winner.

On its own, I think the Belmont Stakes is the lesser of the two, precisely because your higher stud fees in this country are reserved for stallions who produce speedy, precocious runners. That's generally not the trait of a Belmont winner, particularly when the Belmont Stakes is one of the few Grade 1s on their resume.

This is exactly what I was trying to convey in my earlier posts.

[lamboguy]

i remember when AFLEET ALEX trained for the BELMONT, he went out twice a day before the race. he went about 5 miles a day before the race.

ILL HAVE ANOTHER has been going out once a day for about 3 miles.

here are the ways he can get beat in my humble opinion, the kid riding the horse doesn't get a good good education before the race, he needs to ride a few horses before the big race to get a feel for the track, and he better not misjudge the poles in a mile and a half race. the other way he can lose is if the pace is to slow and his horse is to far back chasing the pace.

as far as i can tell, it looks like the horse is ready, and the kid is pretty smart. i think he is going to win this thing.

i am going to give UNION RAGS some type of a chance of running a good race as well. he has been training great at FAIRHILL.

[peeptoad]

For some reason I can't get Atigun out of my brain... I think all the stars in the cosmos would need to be aligned for him to beat IHA, but stranger things have happened. I'm placing a win bet on him just in case...

[Smarty Cide]

the way i see it is nobody was more of a lock to win the belmont and triple crown then big brown and soemthing went wrong. something will go wrong for IHA one way or the other

[tucker6]

the way i see it is nobody was more of a lock to win the belmont and triple crown then big brown and soemthing went wrong. something will go wrong for IHA one way or the other
You and I have differing memories of the weeks leading to the BB Belmont. The Bid was a LOCK. BB was not.

[jerry-g]

I saw where Dulahan had a good works June 3rd. I don't think I've seen 4F that fast.

03Jun Bel 4f ft :45« B 1/66

He could win.

[lamboguy]

I saw where Dulahan had a good works June 3rd. I don't think I've seen 4F that fast.

03Jun Bel 4f ft :45« B 1/66

He could win.
he ain't going nowhere with that work

[GaryG]

You and I have differing memories of the weeks leading to the BB Belmont. The Bid was a LOCK. BB was not.That is for sure. It took one hell of a ride from Ronnie Franklin to get him beat. The Bid was a machine and deserved the TC as much as any, even Native Dancer. He would have been the 3rd in a row.