Get Rich Quick Scheme:Late Money is Smart

[maddog42]

Just completed my weekend toteboard study. I was tracking all the money in the Win pool, for each horse. Figuring most of the money on the last flash was whale money, I decided to calculate percentage increase from the previous total. I also tracked total dollars bet for each horse on the last flash, by subtracting the total amount bet previously. This percentage increase idea I like to think of as my own, but knowing this bunch I am probably reinventing the wheel. Probably about a dozen of you have done similar things. I tracked every dollar bet from 3 minutes down to 0000 minutes, which means 3 flashes after 0 minutes. I was using Twinspires on a DSL line so we are not talking a fast connection.
The results were interesting and did verify that the very late money was indeed smart.

I copied the results of 42 races but dismissed a few of them because of FTS's
and a couple of weirdnesses. I was primarily looking for whale action and I think I found it. The percentage increase leader on the last flash did not have a very high win percentage (only 34%), but it only lost 1.05 percent.
The dollars bet on the last flash leader was very good winning 48% of all bets, for a 4.5% profit. This is not the most earth-shattering research, and the sample size is small, but it bodes well for future study. Long term I would not expect this good of results, but with rebates, I bet the whales are bringing in a lot of money. Yes I have changed my mind about some of the lucrative claims and perhaps I owe Dave Schwartz an apology. I must be Missouri-Okie, because on some things you need to "show me".
I did a quick search of past threads, and found Schwartz mentioning his study back in 03. That combined with CJ stating that favorites are winning
around 40% nowadays makes me wonder if this trend is due more to whale influence than field size like I assumed.
This was a very chalky weekend(at least the races I selected) and I personally would need a 2000 race study to confirm this type stuff. Maybe some of you guys with more computer skills than me can confirm.
I wish some of you guys would share more or at least PM me on similar research. I am sharing this miniscule study in good faith. Now the bad news. Implementing this method or "piggy back the Whales" or "humping the Whales"
seems to be impossible, unless there is a streaming immediate toteboard info access that I am not aware of. PM me or post any ideas.

PS After that other 4% per day thread you guys are going to think I made this up. How ironic. This type of research needs to be automated, because it is time consuming and hard work with a computer and a calculator.

[Some_One]

42 races isn't a large enough sample, I'll let someone else do the math, but a standard deviation will probably be at least 15+ percentage points.

[JohnGalt1]

Isn't most of the late money coming in from off track sites, them dumping in large batches of bets?

[garyscpa]

And how can you bet it without past-posting?

[teddy]

Htr has projected slash fav to help find horses that will get smashed late.

[maddog42]

And how can you bet it without past-posting?
I don't know. You probably can't. I personally don't think you could consistently
make money straight (without a rebate)up even if you could past-post. I am a curious guy, and I like doing research. I gave some of the other posters a hard time about whales, and it looks like I was wrong.

[BlueShoe]

When analyzing betting action there are other things to watch for than the late, late money. Besides, the late hits are not always "wise money", and anyway, most of them are impossible to catch since they show up after the off. Have always been very fond of early money, and have commented on this in several posts, some going way back. This is the runner that at some time in the early wagering is way low, at least half or less of his odds on a good ML, with an out of line pool, ie, all the money on the win end with little in the place and show pools. Late in the betting these types will often drift up in price and the pools fill to normal. Often these types are very live and run well. Imo, $1000 or even $500 wagered early by a small betting stable is more meaningful than is one of $5000 sent in in the last 30 seconds by some guy at a computer keyboard.

[maddog42]

When analyzing betting action there are other things to watch for than the late, late money. Besides, the late hits are not always "wise money", and anyway, most of them are impossible to catch since they show up after the off. Have always been very fond of early money, and have commented on this in several posts, some going way back. This is the runner that at some time in the early wagering is way low, at least half or less of his odds on a good ML, with an out of line pool, ie, all the money on the win end with little in the place and show pools. Late in the betting these types will often drift up in price and the pools fill to normal. Often these types are very live and run well. Imo, $1000 or even $500 wagered early by a small betting stable is more meaningful than is one of $5000 sent in in the last 30 seconds by some guy at a computer keyboard.

My next little toteboard project will be early money. Thanks for the pointers.Are you mainly referring to First Flash or more 10-12 before post ?

[andicap]

Mark Cramer wrote of a similar angle in which the ML fave was dead on the board in the first couple of flashes then gets bet down after the post parade when the public things it has a good thing.

One wrinkle he adds is that the horse who gets early action then drifts up should get at least one more zap before post time.

He says it works best on "chaos" races -- FTS, turf races with little grass form, etc.

I've tracked this once in a while and it often does well.


When analyzing betting action there are other things to watch for than the late, late money. Besides, the late hits are not always "wise money", and anyway, most of them are impossible to catch since they show up after the off. Have always been very fond of early money, and have commented on this in several posts, some going way back. This is the runner that at some time in the early wagering is way low, at least half or less of his odds on a good ML, with an out of line pool, ie, all the money on the win end with little in the place and show pools. Late in the betting these types will often drift up in price and the pools fill to normal. Often these types are very live and run well. Imo, $1000 or even $500 wagered early by a small betting stable is more meaningful than is one of $5000 sent in in the last 30 seconds by some guy at a computer keyboard.

[BlueShoe]

My next little toteboard project will be early money. Thanks for the pointers.Are you mainly referring to First Flash or more 10-12 before post ?
Mainly up until the horses are on the track, or 10 min. before post time. If only checking the first flash some live horses will be missed. For instance, a runner might get a large bet all at once midway in the betting, like at 15 min. before post. Some big bettors will try and hide their wager by gradually feeding it in a little bit at a time, like a hundred or two hundred dollars each tote cycle early and then stopping around 5 minutes to go. This helps the price because without the bets of the wise guy the odds should rise late. Should mention that tote action is hard to use at the small tracks because the pools are so tiny, better at the mid level and major tracks. Also busy weekends at the majors not so good. A thousand dollar bet is easily hidden on a Saturday at Saratoga or Del Mar.

Cramer's theory was what he called the "Kiss Of Death", the KOD angle, on favorites that were dead on the board, "ice", early in the betting. He believed that live, well meant favorites should open below their morning line. When they did not, and opened well above their M/L, they quite often were bad bets and lost more than favorites overall did. The public, seeing what they perceived to be an overlay, would jump on this favorite late, driving it's price down to or slightly below it's M/L at post time. Cramer definitely had something with his theory in my experience. When what looks like a solid favorite opens at 2-1 or 5-2 and stays there for several flashes early in the betting when it should be around 6-5, it might be wise to pay attention.

[maddog42]

Mainly up until the horses are on the track, or 10 min. before post time. If only checking the first flash some live horses will be missed. For instance, a runner might get a large bet all at once midway in the betting, like at 15 min. before post. Some big bettors will try and hide their wager by gradually feeding it in a little bit at a time, like a hundred or two hundred dollars each tote cycle early and then stopping around 5 minutes to go. This helps the price because without the bets of the wise guy the odds should rise late. Should mention that tote action is hard to use at the small tracks because the pools are so tiny, better at the mid level and major tracks. Also busy weekends at the majors not so good. A thousand dollar bet is easily hidden on a Saturday at Saratoga or Del Mar.

Cramer's theory was what he called the "Kiss Of Death", the KOD angle, on favorites that were dead on the board, "ice", early in the betting. He believed that live, well meant favorites should open below their morning line. When they did not, and opened well above their M/L, they quite often were bad bets and lost more than favorites overall did. The public, seeing what they perceived to be an overlay, would jump on this favorite late, driving it's price down to or slightly below it's M/L at post time. Cramer definitely had something with his theory in my experience. When what looks like a solid favorite opens at 2-1 or 5-2 and stays there for several flashes early in the betting when it should be around 6-5, it might be wise to pay attention.

Thanks for the info. I have read all of Cramers books, but dismissed most of his toteboard stuff. I will give it another look. The Tote action that is early is hard to quantify unlike the very last flash. I am mainly a numbers guy and am trying to find something that is measurable and provable. Your ideas ( and andicaps)are much appreciated.

[tholl]

My next little toteboard project will be early money. Thanks for the pointers.Are you mainly referring to First Flash or more 10-12 before post ?

I've often wanted to track which trainer's horses took unusual early money but have never taken the time. Think it would be interesting survey.

[TrifectaMike]

Just completed my weekend toteboard study. I was tracking all the money in the Win pool, for each horse. Figuring most of the money on the last flash was whale money, I decided to calculate percentage increase from the previous total. I also tracked total dollars bet for each horse on the last flash, by subtracting the total amount bet previously. This percentage increase idea I like to think of as my own, but knowing this bunch I am probably reinventing the wheel. Probably about a dozen of you have done similar things. I tracked every dollar bet from 3 minutes down to 0000 minutes, which means 3 flashes after 0 minutes. I was using Twinspires on a DSL line so we are not talking a fast connection.
The results were interesting and did verify that the very late money was indeed smart...

How to seperate what you believe you observe, "smart" money, from bettors exhibiting a herd mentally is a serious and difficult problem (especially in the later stages of wagering than the earlier stages).

Herding can create a significant market inefficency. Large enough that it is possible to make positive returns by betting against the herd. It is possible to develop a strategy to profit by betting against the herd and this strategy can provide numerous betting opportunities.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[maddog42]

How to seperate what you believe you observe, "smart" money, from bettors exhibiting a herd mentally is a serious and difficult problem (especially in the later stages of wagering than the earlier stages).

Herding can create a significant market inefficency. Large enough that it is possible to make positive returns by betting against the herd. It is possible to develop a strategy to profit by betting against the herd and this strategy can provide numerous betting opportunities.

Mike (Dr Beav)

The late money tended to be smart for 38 races on a chalky weekend. This is a pitifully small sample. My guess is that about 30% of that last flash money was whales. Just a guess.

[mountainman]

Repetitive pattern (A) at mnr: Big bettor unloads early to win, makes other contenders long odds. Wise guys take bait, flocking en masse to field's second likeliest winner, but don't realize that many others are embarking on same course. End result: Price on obvious chalk rises to acceptable range, second fave ends up underlaid.

Repetitive pattern (B): No stickouts in evenly matched race. Nobody opens at short odds. Mindless masses inevitably decide that SOMEBODY must be a cinch, tepid chalk (that should be 5/2) winds up 6/5.


Moral: You MUST surmise which way the late money will go, or you can't beat the mountain. Focus on races where your key horse seems unlikely to be first or second fave.

[Robert Fischer]

When I have a strong bet in a certain pool (a certain wager type), I will note the pool money and odds, especially heavy late money.

Late money isn't always significant, but there are times that it is, and it can signal that not only your bet was strong, but that the horse is in strong form. It is usually just another clue to try to get some information from. Pretty difficult/advanced thing to attempt to use.

[vegasone]

Had an interesting situation pop up with probably smart money. 5th at BEL 6/2. I had the 3,2,9 boxed exacta. The 3 wins, the 9 got taken up on the rail and just misses for 2nd at 45/1 beaten by a 60 to one shot. (ouch).

When I checked the exacta probables, 3-9 was $75 for $1, 9-3 was $150 for $1. Seemed mighty low to me, actually was one of the lower payoffs with the 3. 3-8 paid $315 for $1. Seems like a huge difference.....oh well.

[teddy]

I forget exactly but me and a friend tracked opening bets at 5k or larger and they did very well. Over 20 bets.. Might be fun to track the MTN bomber.

[jdhanover]

I forget exactly but me and a friend tracked opening bets at 5k or larger and they did very well. Over 20 bets.. Might be fun to track the MTN bomber.

I've been loosely tracking him (not every day over the past few weeks). From what I have seen, I think he is behind. Was one night where he missed 3 of 4. Takes a lot to recover. He missed another last night I think. Then again, since he continues to do it, maybe he is ahead long term

[pondman]

Cramer's theory was what he called the "Kiss Of Death", the KOD angle, on favorites that were dead on the board, "ice", early in the betting. He believed that live, well meant favorites should open below their morning line. When they did not, and opened well above their M/L, they quite often were bad bets and lost more than favorites overall did..

The crowd bets late on super jocks. As much as 83% of the pool comes in with 5 minutes to go in California. Haven't detected anything smart about it. I use a different approach-- betting early and canceling late.

I wouldn't assume all winning players slam the favorite late. There are certain times of the year when the game becomes more predictable. I'd say Early summer with lots of lower claiming races at fairs.

[SharpCat]

The MTR bomber is fun to watch. I have been watching him for quite some time. It's almost like he's playing a hand of poker. Sometimes he bluffing and sometimes he's not. I know he makes a bet of $5000 but he does not keep his original bet as much as you may think. Sometimes he does indeed keep his ticket. Sometimes he may cancel a portion of his bet and keep the rest. Sometimes he will cycle all of his money out of the pool say $1000 at a time then bet another horse at the gate. Sometimes he will keep his bet untill post time then cancel it and bet another horse. I've seen the top 2 favorites load up at 1-9 and 4-1 or 5-1 and when they break they are almost identical in odds say 1-1 to 6-5. I've noticed that mostly in shorter fields. I saw this on 1 occasion last year. The 6 horse loaded at 1-9 and the 4 loaded at 5-1. The 6 horse loads last and then a 40-1 pig flips in the gate. They take all the horses out and they circle behind the gate. The odds remain basically unchanged. They still have the odds up as they load back in the gate. The 6 loads last at 1-9. When the race goes off the 6 is 5-2 and the 4 is 4-5. The 4 does not hot the board and the 6 runs second so he lost on that occasion. One friday last year 6 out of 9 races the favorite opened up at 1-9. It's easy to pick up a program and identify a horse he is likely to bet early. Most of the time he does bet on the horse who does figure to be the strong favorite but he does switch it up on occasion. I think he might play a heavy ice cold exacta bet on rare occasions in a short field with 2 solids favorites. Hard to tell if he wins or loses without knowing his final bets. I would say he is loaded at the least.

[maddog42]

Had an interesting situation pop up with probably smart money. 5th at BEL 6/2. I had the 3,2,9 boxed exacta. The 3 wins, the 9 got taken up on the rail and just misses for 2nd at 45/1 beaten by a 60 to one shot. (ouch).

When I checked the exacta probables, 3-9 was $75 for $1, 9-3 was $150 for $1. Seemed mighty low to me, actually was one of the lower payoffs with the 3. 3-8 paid $315 for $1. Seems like a huge difference.....oh well.

I did an experiment about a year ago. I tried to use the exacta pool to set the line. I usually let the win pool toteboard total set the favorite, but then let the exacta pool using the 2 low odds horses set the othere 2 horses ( my 4 contenders). Mixed results but sometimes it was better than the win pool. I did notice that many times an aberration in the exacta pools was predictive.

[BlueShoe]

I did notice that many times an aberration in the exacta pools was predictive.
On occasion, studying the pick-3 will pays can also be worthwhile. For example, when the 5th choice in the win pool is the 3rd choice in the pick 3 payouts, you might have a very live runner. Same can be said for analyzing double prices, although there is more variations and oddities in the pick-3, and even more in the pick-4s.