Belmont Tosses

[Smarty Cide]

Who you all tossing and why? or is this the type of race where everyone is in play, brirdstone, ruler on ice, Da'Tara ect...?

[Producer]

Five Sixteen, Guyana Star Dweej, Optimizer, Unstoppable U. I would probably add Ravelo's Boy to the list even though he is training well at Calder. Will take a wait and see approach on him as a possible horse to round out the bottom of exotics, if anything.


Of the non-obvious contenders, I only see Street Life and Attigun as horses with any kind of chance.

[Smarty Cide]

did you see Da'Tara and Birdstone with any type of chance?


Where can I find an archive of old articles leading up to the belmont in past years Im kinda interested in see ing how people thought those horses where training... im looking for a bomb here, I just cant see IHA doing it. He's not the horse we have been waiting 34 years for.

[MickJ26]

At least Birdstone had the Champagne on his resume. I don't think anybody saw Da Tara coming.

[Maximillion]

did you see Da'Tara and Birdstone with any type of chance?


Where can I find an archive of old articles leading up to the belmont in past years Im kinda interested in see ing how people thought those horses where training... im looking for a bomb here, I just cant see IHA doing it. He's not the horse we have been waiting 34 years for.

Imo he has had 2 difficult assignments and he passed both with flying colors.....if he gets the job done here imo he is worthy...Is he on par with the 70s greats or Sunday Silence?...hell no,but imo stll worthy.

[5k-claim]

did you see Da'Tara and Birdstone with any type of chance?


Where can I find an archive of old articles leading up to the belmont in past years Im kinda interested in see ing how people thought those horses where training... im looking for a bomb here, I just cant see IHA doing it. He's not the horse we have been waiting 34 years for. You have been waiting for 34 years? When did you start?

Any horse that pulls off those three high profile races at three different tracks in three different states... in 5 weeks ... is deserving. I do not support any 'moving the goalpost' on this achievement.

Not that it will stop the threads to come about 'perfect trips', 'weak competition', and 'slow ratings'. Those threads are on the way, for sure.

.

[fmolf]

You have been waiting for 34 years? When did you start?

Any horse that pulls off those three high profile races at three different tracks in three different states... in 5 weeks ... is deserving. I do not support any 'moving the goalpost' on this achievement.

Not that it will stop the threads to come about 'perfect trips', 'weak competition', and 'slow ratings'. Those threads are on the way, for sure.

.
exactly!...while i am not a fan of the connections if this horse wins this race he will be considered as good as all the others in my book!...Look out for a horse like guyana star dweej he may go right to the front a la d'tara and keep going...one never knows...paynter is interesting as well.Dullahan and union rags have legit shots too.Paynter may be the best value if he does not get bet down on the Baffert factor

[Cardus]

Who you all tossing and why? or is this the type of race where everyone is in play, brirdstone, ruler on ice, Da'Tara ect...?

I wouldn't put Birdstone in the same group as the others you mentioned. He was a significantly better horse than the other two.

[elysiantraveller]

did you see Da'Tara and Birdstone with any type of chance?

The Derby was also a toss for him being that it was a sealed track. He came into the Belmont a well-bred, little known, accomplished runner.

I will probably be watching this race like most years although the Beyer article today had a good stat that if you bet every other runner for the past 15 years in every running you have doubled your money.

[sovereign]

Who you all tossing and why? or is this the type of race where everyone is in play, brirdstone, ruler on ice, Da'Tara ect...?

I'll Have Another. Just because. :)

[OTM Al]

All deep closers

[Sysonby]

Someone posted on another topic that deep closers had one 8 out of the last 22 Belmont Stakes

[Run Nicholas Run]

unstoppable u , guyana star dweej, optimizer

[Vengeance of Rain]

Every horse in the field except for I'll Have Another.

[sovereign]

Someone posted on another topic that deep closers had one 8 out of the last 22 Belmont Stakes

And that closer was Jazil. He broke last and was one-paced throughout, improving position little by little each furlong. He was in position after 9F and still maintained that quick one-paced run. He caused Bluegrass Cat to move sooner than planned.

[fmolf]

And that closer was Jazil. He broke last and was one-paced throughout, improving position little by little each furlong. He was in position after 9F and still maintained that quick one-paced run. He caused Bluegrass Cat to move sooner than planned.
I'll be looking for a front runner to stay along as the late runners are too tired from chasing for such a long distance,which is why front runners do well,more so if the track is a bit gummy from the rain this week.Drying out tracks are anybodies guess?Especially the sandy loam of the largest oval in america!

[Sysonby]

Sorry, typo on my last post, should have read there was a post that 8 out of the last 22 Belmont Stakes were won by deep closers.

[sovereign]

I'll be looking for a front runner to stay along as the late runners are too tired from chasing for such a long distance,which is why front runners do well,more so if the track is a bit gummy from the rain this week.Drying out tracks are anybodies guess?Especially the sandy loam of the largest oval in america!

When the Belmont track is sealed it's somewhat like running on the wet sand at the beach near the water. Depending how it dries out, if it's hot and humid, it will become a bit sticky but not too gummy for short while and horse like Dullahan would have an advantage. But if it hot and dry, for a while it will become cuppy, like running on moist cold sand, like the kind of sand to build sandcastles with. Slip and slide!

[iceknight]

In the words of a famous player: " I fold".

I will cheer for IHA though and try to buy a souvenir $1 or $2 ticket

[Smarty Cide]

I wouldn't put Birdstone in the same group as the others you mentioned. He was a significantly better horse than the other two.

wasnt birdstone like a 41-1

[sovereign]

wasnt birdstone like a 41-1

That means a majority of the bettors were wrong about him or did not truly handicap his chances correctly.

[Smarty Cide]

found some interested old articles leading up to past belmonts, that prove you might as well throw a dart at the pp's for belmont


Birdstone skipped the Preakness after a disappointing Derby but the long layoff is the least of his worries. He was underraced at two, lacks a stakes win at three, is not coming off a sharp race, has not won at nine furlongs, and has not run to the Beyer par, in fact he has not broken 100. The only positives are that he did race in the Derby, has enough starts at three, and is capable of stalking the pace.




Da'Tara - His maiden win at Gulfstream in January is still his only win. Since then he was 3rd in an allowance, 9th in the Florida Derby, 5th in the Derby Trial at Churchill Downs, and 2nd in the Barbaro Stakes on Preakness day.




Ruler on Ice was second in the Federico Tesio last out but did not go in the Preakness. He qualifies on dosage, stalks the pace, has a sharp prep, and has made 4 starts this year. On the downside he has no Triple Crown experience, no stakes wins, only 2 starts last year, is coming off a 5 week layoff, and has a top Beyer of just 86


Drosselmeyer was an early "wise guy" horse for the Kentucky Derby but unfortunately skipped both the Derby and the Preakness, a clear negative in the Belmont. He has never run a 100+ Beyer, his last start was not a career best effort, he ran 4 times as a juvenile, and he has 3 points (2 solid 1 professional) on the right side. He is coming off a sharp prep (2nd in the Dwyer), which also counts as a sharp race at Belmont Park, he has 4 starts this year, and he uses a stalking runstyle.

[sovereign]

found some interested old articles leading up to past belmonts, that prove you might as well throw a dart at the pp's for belmont

Birdstone skipped the Preakness after a disappointing Derby but the long layoff is the least of his worries. He was underraced at two, lacks a stakes win at three, is not coming off a sharp race, has not won at nine furlongs, and has not run to the Beyer par, in fact he has not broken 100. The only positives are that he did race in the Derby, has enough starts at three, and is capable of stalking the pace.

You might have missed the most important positive: He won the Champagne-G1 which equals a win over the track, so he was already familiar with Belmont. Union Rags has this going for him.

Da'Tara - His maiden win at Gulfstream in January is still his only win. Since then he was 3rd in an allowance, 9th in the Florida Derby, 5th in the Derby Trial at Churchill Downs, and 2nd in the Barbaro Stakes on Preakness day.

Da'tara was sharp in The Barbaro. Sarava also came out of the Sir Barton(Barbaro) Stakes with a good win by 4 lengths. That distance is 8.5F, which somehow equated to a good prep for 12F. Paynter has this going for him.

Ruler on Ice was second in the Federico Tesio last out but did not go in the Preakness. He qualifies on dosage, stalks the pace, has a sharp prep, and has made 4 starts this year. On the downside he has no Triple Crown experience, no stakes wins, only 2 starts last year, is coming off a 5 week layoff, and has a top Beyer of just 86

His wet track Tomlinson number towered above the entire field, plus he has done exceptionally well on wet tracks. What a mess of a day that was. The track was not sloppy - it was soupy! Paynter and Union Rags have this going for them.


Drosselmeyer was an early "wise guy" horse for the Kentucky Derby but unfortunately skipped both the Derby and the Preakness, a clear negative in the Belmont. He has never run a 100+ Beyer, his last start was not a career best effort, he ran 4 times as a juvenile, and he has 3 points (2 solid 1 professional) on the right side. He is coming off a sharp prep (2nd in the Dwyer), which also counts as a sharp race at Belmont Park, he has 4 starts this year, and he uses a stalking runstyle.

He was the wiseguy pick because of his pedigree but questionable if he would be fast enough to get there. Apparently, 10F was enough for him to get up front while the others tire out. Five Sixteen has a long-distance pedigree, but may be more suited for steeplechase or foxhunting.

:bang: :)

[Smarty Cide]

You might have missed the most important positive: He won the Champagne-G1 which equals a win over the track, so he was already familiar with Belmont. Union Rags has this going for him.



Da'tara was sharp in The Barbaro. Sarava also came out of the Sir Barton(Barbaro) Stakes with a good win by 4 lengths. That distance is 8.5F, which somehow equated to a good prep for 12F. Paynter has this going for him.



His wet track Tomlinson number towered above the entire field, plus he has done exceptionally well on wet tracks. What a mess of a day that was. The track was not sloppy - it was soupy! Paynter and Union Rags have this going for them.




He was the wiseguy pick because of his pedigree but questionable if he would be fast enough to get there. Apparently, 10F was enough for him to get up front while the others tire out. Five Sixteen has a long-distance pedigree, but may be more suited for steeplechase or foxhunting.

:bang: :)



thanks for breaking that down. love insight from more experienced players :ThmbUp:

[forced89]

I'll Have Another. Just because. :)

Agree. Best way to get a big return while betting a small amount of money.

[sovereign]

Agree. Best way to get a big return while betting a small amount of money.

Just like that big guy on the rail in Let It Ride - he bets $2 on the longest shot so that way he don't get his heart broke. :)

[ArlJim78]

I guess I don't understand trying to handicap the race based on prior runnings. It's just another horse race. Handicap it like you would any race.
I think for the TC races in particular that people tend to go overboard with various historical angles, breeding, etc.

[raybo]

Five Sixteen - No stakes races. And, 52 day layoff.

Optimizer - Has not handled this class yet. Declines in the stretch.

Ravelo's Boy - 3 month layoff. Trainer has 5% wins on 90 plus days off. Best graded stakes finish was 4th in a G3.

Union Rags - Breeding.

Atigun (probably) - Breeding (and never been past 1 1/16m).

Throwouts for "win" only!

[raybo]

I guess I don't understand trying to handicap the race based on prior runnings. It's just another horse race. Handicap it like you would any race.
I think for the TC races in particular that people tend to go overboard with various historical angles, breeding, etc.

When young horses have not shown the ability to handle the class and distance, there isn't much else to go by. They can get really good really quickly, true, but they can also get trampled moving up in class and trying new distances, at new tracks.

The PPs will only take you so far, as you know.

[Smarty Cide]

Five Sixteen - No stakes races. And, 52 day layoff.

Optimizer - Has not handled this class yet. Declines in the stretch.

Ravelo's Boy - 3 month layoff. Trainer has 5% wins on 90 plus days off. Best graded stakes finish was 4th in a G3.

Union Rags - Breeding.

Atigun (probably) - Breeding (and never been past 1 1/16m).

Throwouts for "win" only!


not tossing guyana star dweej?

[tzipi]

Agree with others, Birdstone was way better than the others listed. Birststone also tossed his shoes in the Deby at the start. 41-1 was high for him. But it's the Belmont Stakes and the big money goes to the top horse.

[raybo]

not tossing guyana star dweej?

Nope! Not yet anyway, waiting for the data files first.

[tzipi]

If Guyana Star Dweej gets within 25 lengths of the winner, I'd be shocked.

[Smarty Cide]

is there any possible argument for guyana star dweej

[fmolf]

is there any possible argument for guyana star dweej
Maybe i'll play all over IHA in the exacta try to hit a homerun that way!

[raybo]

is there any possible argument for guyana star dweej

I haven't tossed him yet, that's for sure. Will have to do some more checking once the data files are available, but he has possibilities, IMO.