See You At Peelers Retired, Bred to SBSW

[Sea Biscuit]

http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/restricted/pdf/hru/hru060412.pdf

[LottaKash]

Sad to see her leave.....She was special...

But you know, last year, when she got sick, she got left behind a bit, from some of the others....She never passed her M4 test....She just skipped that part and it cost her late in the season....

M4 is an acronym that I use for 3/4' times....when a half goes fast and the 3/4 time is faster for that group than at any time in the season, well that is M4....

SYAP got sick and sore for a few races and the other fillies last year were doing 1:21 3/4's and she had never been in that fast of a 3/4's.....

I have found that early in the year, the 2's & 3's after a few starts early in the season, will begin to go faster and faster to the 3/4's, with each passing race, until they reach the full "ability" time for that class.....

Last year Krispy Apple and Idyllic the only real challengers to SYAP championship year, went well ahead of SYAP while she was out for short bit recuperating from whatever was ailing her....She skipped the M4 part, and she paid for it late in the year....That was her flaw that year....

Young horses will ultimately reach their ability level at some point, and I have found that the M4 aspect is a very good marker for keeping track of how high a young horse may go...

Imo, the M4 marker is a right of passage for "all" the young horses...For instance watch what happens to horse when there was a hot half and/to the 3/4's...Often enough, they will scratch the following week, or many times will break stride in their next start....To me that is a clear signal of how high an ability level any particular horse might be....Most times that will be it, and how they come out of a true M4 race the following week will be a tipoff for me on where a horse may be in his form and ability level, and what we can expect from him/her thereon....

Last year, Pandy stated that he thought the Krispy Apple was the better filly for the year...And, you know I couldn't argue with him on his reasoning....But in my deep down I knew why.....M4.....That spoiled her year when she missed that part...and sadly now she is gone....I would've like to see her "best stuff".....

Still, on the brighter side....I am looking forward to the marriage of SYAP & SBSW....On paper looks like a winning combo.....I will be watching..

best.

[Oskar]

Sad to see her leave.....She was special...


Last year Krispy Apple and Idyllic the only real challengers to SYAP championship year, went well ahead of SYAP while she was out for short bit recuperating from whatever was ailing her....She skipped the M4 part, and she paid for it late in the year....That was her flaw that year....


Last year, Pandy stated that he thought the Krispy Apple was the better filly for the year...And, you know I couldn't argue with him on his reasoning....But in my deep down I knew why.....M4.....That spoiled her year when she missed that part...and sadly now she is gone....I would've like to see her "best stuff".....



best.


You’re putting Idyllic in the same league with Peelers? Get serious. Idyllic won two open stakes races last year, the Jugette and the Nadia. In the former she beat a mediocre—if that—bunch; Rocklamation, who wasn’t a shadow of what she is this year; Strike An Attitude; Pretty Katherine; What’s New Pussycat; Swinging Beauty and Tu Sei Bella. No Peelers. No KA. No Drop The Ball. And she won the Nadia because Marcus Johansson butchered Peelers from the outside post. Idyllic? You can’t be serious. Based on what?


KA’s two open wins were the Shady Daisy and the Garnsey. In the latter part of the season, she lost to Peelers in the ValleyForge, finished second in her BC elimination and finished out in the BC at 10-1. (Idyllic finished out at 44-1 in the BC). A filly had better have knocked them dead early if she expected to overcome a finish like that.


Drop TheBall was the hot filly at season’s end, and while she did win the Matron, her second in the BC cost her the slight chance she had of overtaking Peelers.


Last year Peelers won the Empire Classic, Rooney, Fan Hanover, Tarport Hap and Valley Forge. She was the obvious division winner.

[LottaKash]

You’re putting Idyllic in the same league with Peelers? Get serious.
Drop TheBall was the hot filly at season’s end, and while she did win the Matron, her second in the BC cost her the slight chance she had of overtaking Peelers.


Last year Peelers won the Empire Classic, Rooney, Fan Hanover, Tarport Hap and Valley Forge. She was the obvious division winner.

Oskar, I was just trying to point out (AT THAT TIME) in their 3yo year, that the M4 issue was the point that I was trying to demonstrate....I didn't mention any of the others including Drop the Ball because, at that time the M4 issue arose at M1...I think that those girls went something like 1:20:4 KA & Idyllic (who incidently beat SYAP).in one or so of those early season races, and that, SYAP missed out on that "Foundation" that the young ones need in order to move on an up....Drop the Ball "crashed and burned" from her right of passage after her M4...She went lame from it....

Now SYAP had health issues and she was playing catchup from some point on, trying to get that M4 that she missed out on earlier in the season...

I think that SYAP could;ve been "really something more special" if not for her issues....Jimmy Takter said as much, as well...I was really high on her...

It may have sounded as if KA was my choice over SYAP....she wasn't....Pandy liked KA & DTB over SYAP....I just wanted to mention that the missing M4 part of SYAP , as well as the health issue, were the main reason's that SYAP didn't go undefeated....I am serious..

I hope that I have clarified my opion of SYAP a little better....

best,

[Oskar]

Not sure about your M4 theory, LottaKash. However, yes, that break Peelers had to take in the heart of the season was a killer.

The Nadia was the only time Idyllic beat Peelers, and Marcus had a lot to do with that.

Idyllic was great at accumulating lots of dough by picking up checks in stakes races.

I haven't seen her out this year, but Put On A Show, KA, Anndrovette, Western Silk, Rocklamation, Higher And Higher and friends are waiting for her if she does come back.

[LottaKash]

Not sure about your M4 theory, LottaKash. .

Oskar, M4 is not theory....It is real....I just can't explain it as well as I would like to..

Every single horse has a barrier that they cannot cross and still win...This barrier is located at the 3/4 pole......It is different with each horse, and each track configuration, and variant nite...And, the previous and following 1/4 mile splits have much do with it, as well.....There are probably a thousand combinations as well...That is why it is so hard to explain....Plus, I am not an expert at it yet....But one thing I do know, that it exists....I see it over and over and over again....Every year, during any one season of young ones...


But, for the sake of anything, anyone if you like, observe this:....Anytime you see a very young horse, the 2's and 3's, watch and track, each horse, when they run against a 3/4 time that was much swifter than they have used to going.....This is where the rubber meets the road, so to speak.....This is where we begin to see where the "hierarchy" of the current crop of youngies, is.....This is where the "crackdown" for the season begins.....Of course we must try to use only horses that we know are in good and upcoming and/or current winning form....Using horses that are only in "keep-up" shape don't reveal as much as the sharper horses, still, you can still learn something about them, even so.... Watching what happens in the next few weeks will tell you much about knowing where the "true abilities" of any horse may lie....

I see this year after year with each new crop of horses....

The 2yo's are mostly all about final 1/4 times, so the 3/4 times will usually be honest enough so that they are still not so demanding yet....That is the basic nature of 2yo racing.....Still, when I see a 3/4 time that is faster and way out of character for that group, I always notice....At this stage only the best ones can do it, the M4, and still come back for more next week....Most others will bounce big or at least slightly for a period of time....It hurts so many of the 2yo's when they go so big,(M4) so early in the season...

The 3's are where we separate the curds and whey.....Early in the season watch each week and see how they are progressing vs. each other....They will go along and then comes that nite that the track is "lightning", on those nites the 1/2's will be amped up to faster, and so the 3/4's too.....

Watch the following week, after a lightning nite,and will you see horses that just loved that, and because they can do it, and they will probably go on and up....How far and high ?, I just let the horses tell me....The week after an M4, it is often a crapshoot, gambling you know, on how well a horse may have come out of that m4-race.....You will see many scratches the following week after a lightning race nite.....You will see many breakers too.....And, you will see many horse just plain regress or stay the same....That is probably "their ability level".....Often times you will see a horse out for several weeks, or so....And when they come back, just look to their 3/4 time from their last race or two, and oh so many times you will see a strong half followed by a 3/4 time that is faster than anything they had been used to running to prior to that M4....Actually I use N4 for when a horse ran a new 3/4 time "top"....and, M4 for a horse that has actually ran that time and finished very well, despite it....

I have seen the very best horses bounce off of a new seasonal N4/M4....Many times, even the good ones, will need a week or so off to get over the N4....And, Trotters in particular are prone to the N4, especially the chronic breakers as it throws them off with regularity....

Any horse that can set, maintain or overcome an N4/M4, is always worth watching, especially early in the season.....Late in the season, is another story....You can make a mistake more easily when using M4's, as most horses, by then have found their true "ability level" and the M4 will more a product of the variant nite than the foundation of a horse, unless he is a late bloomer.....Late Bloomers are some of my favorite plays in late season....For them it is like "Spring" again vs. the tired ones who have been battling all seson long...

Anyway, this is way off thread....It was saying goodbye to SYAP originally...
Still, for me tho, when challenged I am always ready and glad to backup my way of thinking....I try to do it whenever it crops up, as in this one....I like talking about it, and the sharing as well, is all...

best,

[CHeCK EyE]

I still don't really have a full grasp on the concept you are presenting, but that is a damn good read if you ask me, haha. I was intrigued the entire time and really honed in on parts. Reread both posts. Just felt I had to throw that out there.

[LottaKash]

I still don't really have a full grasp on the concept you are presenting, but that is a damn good read if you ask me, haha. I was intrigued the entire time and really honed in on parts. Reread both posts. Just felt I had to throw that out there.

Checkeye...what part isn't clear to you ?....

I could have stated it differently perhaps....That is what is taking this book that I am writing, so long to it's finish....In fact, I have scrapped the book & it's formats 3X....Each time that I think that I have said what I wanted to say, I reread it and it sucked.....I know in my deep down of what is true about many aspects of this game of ours....But alas, I am not the writer that I wish to be....

Let me know about the M4 thing, that you don't get....It is worth asking about and good know as well....After awhile if you understand it, you will have a new tool in your arsenal....It is not a system unto istself, but knowing about N4/M4 can help anyone understand the game a little better with a little thought and imagination, when trying to understand why horses win and lose.....

All horses, ultimately, have an "ability level", and by utilizing the M4 barrier as a guide, you can tell if a horse has reached that level, or not yet....The 3/4 time by itself is alright to use when handicapping I guess, but I don't, still in another light, it is a barrier that must be crossed if one is to compete successfully at the current ability level or possibly higher....The fast 3/4 time (M4) barrier crossing, IS, MUST, and WILL be crossed sooner or later if a horse, especially the young ones, are to move onward and upward....If they can't pass that particular M4 barrier and win, then, there they will be and stay, unless of course, some better trainer comes along and fixes that M4 gap somehow....I am always on the alert for that....A new trainer fixing a horse to go faster and past the M4 for the class and it does....That I label a " NH ", a new horse

Again, that is what happened to SYAP, I think.....Others had gone faster to the 3/4's with eye opening marks at that, while she was out for that short bit.....So, in essence they left her behind a little....When she came back, she was both trying to catch up to them in her M4 (and imo she would have eventually if fitter, ) while at the same time she was still trying to get over what was ailing her.....Jimmy Takter eluded to this, about how perplexed he was about her condition....And, all that time I knew in my deep down that she was sorely lacking that M4 that she was capable of, so I couldn't argue with anyone about that when they claimed that she was 2d best to several other horses in her hierarchy....

best,

[CHeCK EyE]

First question, Do M4/N4 have any literal meanings? Are they abbreviations or just something you go by? That's just a curiosity question as it has no bearing on the concept.

I'll try to explain the way I see this and we shall see how close I am! Horses in a given class will routinely hit the 3/4 mark at a certain pace. Each horse has a 'limit' so to speak of what 3/4 time they can hit and yet still finish strong and potentially win. If horse A is running is normal 3/4 time in the past 3 weeks and suddenly reels off a time much quicker....here is where I kinda of lose you?

The following weeks he runs better? or worse? The scratches I think I get; basically saying that quick time was very demanding and the horse doesn't stay quite as sharp the following week. And how do you use it as an indicator? Is this quick time the benchmark where you see it on the PP and for horse A don't bet the subsequent race? OR do you use this time and say okay they raced that quick race 1, race 2 and 3 won't be quite as good, but jump back on board in a race where the pace shouldn't be as demanding?

I hope that wasn't too wordy or hard to follow. I'm probably making it more difficult than need be. I always read the posts and comments on picks and handicapping on this forum and have learned quite a bit. I'd love to get the know how on exactly how RAY gets all his picks from the 'robot' Maybe another day! haha

[Oskar]

LottaKash,



Looking at this concept through a wide lens, in a general fashion that I know doesn’t do it justice, I believe many nice colts and fillies that are entered in restricted races for the bulk of the season have problems when they venture into open waters because the pace in the opens will overwhelm them. It’s always assumed these youngsters are simply of inferior quality, but sometimes they’re just as good as the others but have been weaned on slow fractions in SS racing and can’t get past that.



Heston Blue Chip, who dominated in the NYSS last year, may be an example. As a rule Toscano seems to prefer going for the sure money in restricted races, as opposed to racing her colts and fillies in opens. Last year Heston beat up on the SS kids until the late fall when he tested open competition in the Matron. Toscano said at the time that she wanted to gauge how she should stake him in 2012. He finished second to Kingcole in his elimination and won the final.



He’s back on the SS circuit this year. He goes again Wed. in a $50,000 SS pace at Monticello against four other colts, one of whom, Forever Just, is his stablemate.



They didn’t try the Simpson with him, nor the SBSW, and he won’t be in the NA Cup. He isn’t staked to the Max Hempt. Yet he’s staked to the Meadowlands Pace. I assume his tune-up for that race will be a $250,000 NYSS pace at Yonkers at the end of June.



I don’t think anyone knows exactly how good Heston is, but hanging around those small tracks with the New York SS crowd and going what they go won’t prepare you for the M Pace. In Heston’s case, I suppose that, despite several starts, he’ll be unprepared—more than unable—to go what they’ll go to the ¾ in the Pace and still have what it takes to finish.



I know you’re talking about a young horse hitting the wall or blasting through it when faced with a three-quarter split that’s quite a bit faster than he’s accustomed to. I just thought I’d point out that some like Heston, or Flying Instructor, theBadlands Hanover colt that won his sixth in a row in the Delaware SS today, are never allowed to test their limits because there’s too much money to be made in restricted company.



In many cases these youngsters are humbled in their first couple of open starts, if they get that many, and simply returned to the state bred circuit, never having an opportunity to learn how to adapt to the faster tempo.



The majority of Peelers freshman starts were in the New York SS, as well as several more she made in that program at three.

[LottaKash]

First question, Do M4/N4 have any literal meanings? Are they abbreviations or just something you go by? That's just a curiosity question as it has no bearing on the concept.

I'll try to explain the way I see this and we shall see how close I am! Horses in a given class will routinely hit the 3/4 mark at a certain pace. Each horse has a 'limit' so to speak of what 3/4 time they can hit and yet still finish strong and potentially win. If horse A is running is normal 3/4 time in the past 3 weeks and suddenly reels off a time much quicker....here is where I kinda of lose you?

The following weeks he runs better? or worse? The scratches I think I get; basically saying that quick time was very demanding and the horse doesn't stay quite as sharp the following week. And how do you use it as an indicator? Is this quick time the benchmark where you see it on the PP and for horse A don't bet the subsequent race? OR do you use this time and say okay they raced that quick race 1, race 2 and 3 won't be quite as good, but jump back on board in a race where the pace shouldn't be as demanding?



Checkeye, you've essentially got what I was trying to intimate....

M4, is an usually fast 3/4 (from what that class has been going so far)...It is usually (but not always) preceded by a, relativity speaking, equally fast 1/2 time (from what the class has been going so far)...
.
N4, is used when a horse in his last race reached that new top 3/4 time,,,

ie: 28 58 127 156......now 28 57 126 155..see the change...M4

ie: try this.... 55.3 123.4 .......now 54.3 122.1....see the change, it's a bit drastic, isn't it....Not every horse can graduate to that...

This is especially so with the 2's and the 3's.....

For the older horses tho, except for the lame and late bloomers that will come on somewhere further on down the road, it is not a "rite of passage" as it is with the young ones... For the older horses, it is more of a "form-cycle pointer" than anything else....

So, for the young ones, we use M4 as a barrier, that each and every horse will either cross over from and move on and up, or it will inhibit any further class rises for the ones that cannot get past that new M4.....It is a marker to be used to see where a horse is in his young career, and where he may be headed....The same, backwards or upwards...

Can you predict how a horse will come out of that race (the young ones) ?....Most times you can with the young ones....The best ones can stand the new M4 (N4), and they will show it to you, by the way they finish that last race which had the M4 in it....As long as they run at least evenly thru the lane, you can be pretty sure that they will bo ok next week, and, if they find a nice spot, they might win next week.....Young horses who run fairly ok but spit the bit late in the mile are telling you that unless there was a good excuse for running out of gas late in the lane, they will be tired and/or aching next out, and will usually break stride, take a week or 2 off, or will simply run like shit next out...The BOUNCE....A faster than normal 1/2 and 3/4 run together, for the young guns, will do that to them.....

Heck, it even happens to the very best ones, and I mean the OPEN horses, this is so especially early in a season, or in a return to duty race....And, even tho all or most if the best ones, have long since gone thru their early rite-of passage as a young gun, they can still bounce from a TMTS (too much too soon) M4 in his form and training cycle....

Same with overnite horses....Try this for awhile...Take any program and scan each and every horse and look to see what happens to him from the point that you find a change in his 1/2 and 3/4 times....the 1/2 by itself not so much, even tho it has handicapping value, but the 3/4 by itself at a minimum is ok....Even tho an unusually fast 1/2 combined with a commensurat 3/4 time is the best combo....Watch what happens to them in each of up to 3 or 4 starts from that M4 date, on...

I know I haven't answered all of you concerns and questions, but that is all I have right now....Brain Freeze, haha !

best,

If .

[CHeCK EyE]

I guess I had a better grasp than I first thought but I do see it now. Thanks for the patience and understanding Lash, I always enjoy learning something new!

[LottaKash]

I I always enjoy learning something new!


Ok CE....Me too...:cool: ...and how about "un-learning" something old, too..?

best,

[CHeCK EyE]

Ok CE....Me too...:cool: ...and how about "un-learning" something old, too..?

best,

I'll 'un-learn' anything if its useless or ineffective, lol. Or at least do my best to ignore it!

[LottaKash]

I'll 'un-learn' anything if its useless or ineffective, lol. Or at least do my best to ignore it!

For some of us older players, sometimes, that is often a very hard thing to do....You know, to hold onto some beloved crap item or other, even tho in our deep down that we intrinsically know it is almost useless or just plain not as valuable as we once thought....

There's stuff that I used to flip around thinking that this was "the way", only to find in much later years that much of what is on the printed past performance page is or has relatively little or no value when it comes to understanding why horses win and lose....At times I am embarrassed to think of all the baggage that I had been carrying around for so long....It is simpler for me now, finally..

best,

[CHeCK EyE]

I'm only 24 so I got a ways to go but I know what you mean. Some things I tought were important I now find obsolete. Better yet, hearing what other people think matters is always a good time too. I just hope harness racing is around when I'm old and gray!

[LottaKash]

I just hope harness racing is around when I'm old and gray!

I wonder about that too Check....

If you ask me tho, there will always be some form of horseracing around somewhere, I imagine...It has had it's ups and downs thru the centuries, still, there was always some form of it going on somewhere.....But it won't be my Daddy's Harness Racing, I don't imagine...Who's to say tho ?

best,

[mrroyboy]

Well I'll tell you one thing. Canadian harness racing will surpass American Harness racing and soon. They do everything right

[CHeCK EyE]

Well I'll tell you one thing. Canadian harness racing will surpass
American Harness racing and soon. They do everything right

If the status quo remains you very well may be right. There are vastly different views on what Gural is doing but I'm on his side. He is trying something. Good, bad or indifferent he is trying. That could go a long way as most other tracks now have casinos and don't care much for the ponies.

[Sea Biscuit]

I'll 'un-learn' anything if its useless or ineffective, lol. Or at least do my best to ignore it!

My experience has been that unlearning the useless and the ineffective is the most difficult thing to do.:lol: