English Derby

[gm10]

Coronation Cup ...

I have a few ideas in this race. One is that St Nic needs a slow pace, two that Masked Marvel needs time between races and that's why he was undercooked on his seasonal debut and three that the 1 Beaten Up is a very good horse as well.

Masked Marvel my selection at 9/1.

Epsom Dash ...

The fastest 5F race in the world (OK, it's mostly downhill).
This a 20-runner handicap where luck plays a major part, so I'm trying to keep it simple. I think Bear Behind ran very well last time, and has a perfect set-up in this race (draw, pace) so he's my bet at 15/2.

Derby ...

No way am I using Camelot. Such is the hype on this horse who has never gone beyond a mile, that he is now 4/6!!! Bonfire and Astrology are the logical alternatives, but my selection is Rugged Cross (E/W) at 66/1.

[OTM Al]

If I wanted to try to beat Camelot, I think I'd go with the 9. Honestly though I think if I was playing this morning, I'd take a pass on this one.

[peeptoad]

St. Nic just demolished the Coronation Cup field. I was a little interested to see how Beaten Up would bounce back from Dubai, but he never looked comfortable on that course.

[horses4courses]

He only has 2 in the race?
Wow....he must be really short of classic-type colts!

Seriously, though....this stable is on another level right now.
If Camelot comes on from his Guineas win, who can stop him?

I did hear a whisper that Main Sequence might go close, so, at near 10-1, he may be worth a win/place interest.

Good luck!

[Humph]

disappointing that there are so few runners for the big one ; smallest field in over a 100 years , i believe

as for the fav , montjeu doesn't get milers , so , having won the guineas , he may not be his father's son at all ; getting the 12 furlongs may not be the foregone conclusion many seem to think it is . but again, i may be clutching at straws :)

for what's worth ,i'll be hoping bonfire runs well

[olddaddy]

I have to go against the fav. Ill try the :8: and :9:

[ArlJim78]

I'm not getting all the interest on Camelot.
I keyed Bonfire on top of some trifecta's, he gave me the best impression watching replays.

[horses4courses]

Easy to see why the odds were so tight.....very nice horse :ThmbUp:

[nearco]

Surely they have to go for the Triple Crown now. This horse should get the 1m3/4.

[gm10]

Surely they have to go for the Triple Crown now. This horse should get the 1m3/4.

Agreed. I saw him in the paddock today and he looks like a typical 12-14F horse.

What a weak race this was, though!!

[OTM Al]

Agreed. I saw him in the paddock today and he looks like a typical 12-14F horse.

What a weak race this was, though!!

Given he seems more a middle to long distance horse, the fact he won the Guineas the way he did says a lot about their 3yos this year. He, like Sea the Stars, could win the St Leger easy barring problems, but it's not the value route for the breeding shed. It would only be tried for the historic value. Maybe if we get one in the US it might tip the scales a bit, but I still figure it is well less than a 50-50 he runs

[Native Texan III]

Given he seems more a middle to long distance horse, the fact he won the Guineas the way he did says a lot about their 3yos this year. He, like Sea the Stars, could win the St Leger easy barring problems, but it's not the value route for the breeding shed. It would only be tried for the historic value. Maybe if we get one in the US it might tip the scales a bit, but I still figure it is well less than a 50-50 he runs

Not true if you have won the 2000g (8f), Derby (12f) on the way to the StL.
Camelot too long striding and late paced for big field at Longchamp but Doncaster ideal.

[gm10]

I have a 118 rating for him. It would be a stretch to call that exceptional, but it's still very high.

I am curious to learn what the plans for the future are. A step back to 10F doesn't look ideal to me, which would rule out the Eclipse/Juddmonte/Irish Champions. The Arc will be the main target, I guess.

[KaiserSoze]

Irish Derby, St Ledger, Arc I would have thought

[nearco]

Irish Derby, St Ledger, Arc I would have thought

They will almost certainly have a go at a 10f race in there. You kind of have to get a 10f G1 nowadays if you want to establish some stallion cred.
The Irish Derby has become a bit of joke recently, and winning it doesn't mean much anymore. If they go for the St Leger then that rules out the Irish Champion Stakes. So that leaves the Eclipse or the Juddmonte.
I would guess the Eclise and then put him away till Sep. Then he will either run in the Irish Champion or the St Leger. The former gives a four week break till the Arc, the latter gives him a shot at history but only a three week turn around to Longchamp.

[Humph]

I have a 118 rating for him. It would be a stretch to call that exceptional, but it's still very high.

I am curious to learn what the plans for the future are. A step back to 10F doesn't look ideal to me, which would rule out the Eclipse/Juddmonte/Irish Champions. The Arc will be the main target, I guess.

high summer , a decent purse , a rich history , almost always decent going . what on earth did the king george ever do wrong ? :)

[KaiserSoze]

They will almost certainly have a go at a 10f race in there. You kind of have to get a 10f G1 nowadays if you want to establish some stallion cred.
The Irish Derby has become a bit of joke recently, and winning it doesn't mean much anymore. If they go for the St Leger then that rules out the Irish Champion Stakes. So that leaves the Eclipse or the Juddmonte.
I would guess the Eclise and then put him away till Sep. Then he will either run in the Irish Champion or the St Leger. The former gives a four week break till the Arc, the latter gives him a shot at history but only a three week turn around to Longchamp.

For an Irish yard the Irish Derby is still an important race, it was good enough for High Chaperal and Galileo to go there after Epsom and also O'Brien has a phenomenal record winning it for each of the last 6 years. For that I think they might be naturally tending to run in it.
Another factor is where St Nicholas Abbey runs, races like the King George and Eclipse or Irish Champion Stakes may not be as much of a draw for Camelot as they might be in other years, they will surely try to keep them apart.

''Triple Crown winner'' is such a marketable line to give to breeders that dropping to 10f may not be as big a deal as it traditionally is with typical English Derby winners, Camelot has shown enough speed to win a classic over a mile remember. The element of history to win a mile classic at the start of may and go through the summer to take the staying classic would demonstrate such versatility and obviously rewrite the history books I'd be very surprised if they didn't go for the St Ledger.

[horses4courses]

For an Irish yard the Irish Derby is still an important race, it was good enough for High Chaperal and Galileo to go there after Epsom and also O'Brien has a phenomenal record winning it for each of the last 6 years. For that I think they might be naturally tending to run in it.
Another factor is where St Nicholas Abbey runs, races like the King George and Eclipse or Irish Champion Stakes may not be as much of a draw for Camelot as they might be in other years, they will surely try to keep them apart.

''Triple Crown winner'' is such a marketable line to give to breeders that dropping to 10f may not be as big a deal as it traditionally is with typical English Derby winners, Camelot has shown enough speed to win a classic over a mile remember. The element of history to win a mile classic at the start of may and go through the summer to take the staying classic would demonstrate such versatility and obviously rewrite the history books I'd be very surprised if they didn't go for the St Ledger.

The map of races to come may be fairly predictable, assuming Camelot stays healthy through the summer and fall.

Retracing the path of Nijinsky in 1970 may be what they attempt.
Irish Derby next, followed by the King George. The St. Leger in September, and then on to Longchamps for the Arc.
Having tasted his first defeat in Paris, Nijinsky was foolishly raced at Newmarket in the Champion Stakes. He was not the same horse by then.
I think that was the only mistake Vincent O'Brien ever made with the horse. What a horse he was, too.

I realize that much has changed since 1970 - there are more valuable purses to aim for.
Making history, though, may prove to be a powerful draw.
I'll hazard a guess, too, that a trip to California in Nov. is not top of the list.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

"Classic" must be a term they use loosely over in the UK. Classic is supposed to imply the best. Even G1 races not known as classics are supposed to be contests between the best horses around

Camelot won the 2000 Guineas over a mile but he was hardly impressive doing so. He won by a narrow margin apart from anything else

This is the subsequent form of the top 5 finishers in the 2000 Guineas for 2012

Camelot 1st in 2000 Guineas. Ran 1st in the Derby next start

2nd horse in the 2000 Guineas ran 10th next start

3rd horse in the 2000 Guineas ran 6th next start

4th horse in the 2000 Guineas ran 10th next start in a field of 10 (ie last)

5th horse in the 2000 Guineas ran 7th next start

You would expect better follow up form from a Maiden. This is just disgraceful for any G1 race let alone a classic. G1 races in the UK are not contests between the best horses out there is the only thing you can conclude from this and the Lockinge Stakes featuring Frankel vs the usual suspects

The Derby itself was a horribly weak race on paper going into the race. Smallest field in over 100 years. Camelot 4-6 fave after winning a weak 2000 Guineas tells you how bad the field was. In the race itself Camelot took an age to wind up. He did a decent job of running out the trip so maybe he is an OK horse at the real stamina distances of 12 furlongs or longer but it looked like his opposition just conked out with 200m to go rather than Camelot ran well. I doubt Camelot can beat a good horse over 10 furlongs or less but he probably won't have to given how these UK G1s seem to shape up. He would be better off sticking to the longer races as that suits him better

You would only send a mare to Camelot if you wanted to breed a horse to win a Melbourne Cup type race and even then you can probably find several better options. If you wanted to breed a miler you would be crazy to send a mare to him. He is too slow over a mile and just got lucky with facing a weak field in the 2000 Guineas

[horses4courses]

"Classic" must be a term they use loosely over in the UK. Classic is supposed to imply the best. Even G1 races not known as classics are supposed to be contests between the best horses around

Camelot won the 2000 Guineas over a mile but he was hardly impressive doing so. He won by a narrow margin apart from anything else

This is the subsequent form of the top 5 finishers in the 2000 Guineas for 2012

Camelot 1st in 2000 Guineas. Ran 1st in the Derby next start

2nd horse in the 2000 Guineas ran 10th next start

3rd horse in the 2000 Guineas ran 6th next start

4th horse in the 2000 Guineas ran 10th next start in a field of 10 (ie last)

5th horse in the 2000 Guineas ran 7th next start

You would expect better follow up form from a Maiden. This is just disgraceful for any G1 race let alone a classic. G1 races in the UK are not contests between the best horses out there is the only thing you can conclude from this and the Lockinge Stakes featuring Frankel vs the usual suspects

The Derby itself was a horribly weak race on paper going into the race. Smallest field in over 100 years. Camelot 4-6 fave after winning a weak 2000 Guineas tells you how bad the field was. In the race itself Camelot took an age to wind up. He did a decent job of running out the trip so maybe he is an OK horse at the real stamina distances of 12 furlongs or longer but it looked like his opposition just conked out with 200m to go rather than Camelot ran well. I doubt Camelot can beat a good horse over 10 furlongs or less but he probably won't have to given how these UK G1s seem to shape up. He would be better off sticking to the longer races as that suits him better

You would only send a mare to Camelot if you wanted to breed a horse to win a Melbourne Cup type race and even then you can probably find several better options. If you wanted to breed a miler you would be crazy to send a mare to him. He is too slow over a mile and just got lucky with facing a weak field in the 2000 Guineas

It remains to be seen how weak this year's crop of Euro 3yo's turns out to be.
If Camelot runs in the King George next month, he will face older horses.
Should he skip the race, and older stablemate St. Nicholas Abbey (or another) runs, I would tend to agree with you.

The English classic races are still top notch.
At least, the first four are. The St. Leger? That's a different story.
This mile and three quarters marathon in Sept. has not always attracted the best sorts in recent years. Some good horses, but not great ones.
History dictates, however, that it is the final leg of their Triple Crown.
Only two horses (Nashwan and Sea The Stars) have been in a position to win it since Nijinsky did in 1970.
Neither has even run in the St. Leger, opting for other G1 races.
The Triple Crown does not have the same appeal in England as it does here.

The best horses tend not to be trained for a race that long, with the far more valuable Prix de l'Arc just a few weeks away. The purse money for the Doncaster classic has not kept pace, either. The Irish Champion, run around the same date at 10 furlongs, is more valuable and less grueling.

For Aidan O'Brien to train the winners of the first four English classics is an amazing feat - under any circumstances. It will be interesting to see how he deploys his troops this year. He certainly has a wealth of talent, even if the competition is a bit suspect - at the moment.

[KaiserSoze]

The classics were invented to test the thoroughbred in terms of precocity,the ability to show balance,athleticism,overall ability and mental traits in handling the tracks etc. You can get poor races in any year,but looking back over the years it is difficult to say there have been too many funny results or bad winners.

I think Camelot won a poor 2000 guineas this year, Power came out and won a Group 1 but I dont think there will be many more out of it. He did win comfortably and was the clear winner however.

The Lockinge was basically a gentle introduction to the season for Frankel. The English Derby is notorious for being a tough race on 3yr olds due to the configuration of the track, timing of the race amongst other factors. Its not uncommon to get many of the field failing to ''train on'' out of it.The race like any other can only keep it's Group 1 status if the standard of horses that win it are rated sufficiently highly however, so there is a qualification element for these races to be called G1, whether the crop who turn up in a given year are really top class isnt neccesarily guaranteed obviously

[Steve R]

I have a 118 rating for him. It would be a stretch to call that exceptional, but it's still very high.

I am curious to learn what the plans for the future are. A step back to 10F doesn't look ideal to me, which would rule out the Eclipse/Juddmonte/Irish Champions. The Arc will be the main target, I guess.
Which 118 is that? Timeform gave him a 130+ and the Racing Post gave him a 128 on their scale. The RPR is very interesting because it is 4 lbs higher than Sea The Stars' Derby and just 1 lb below Workforce's Derby and 2 lbs below Authorized's. In fact, it is the 5th highest Derby rating since 2000 and even 1 pound better than Galileo's.

[gm10]

Which 118 is that? Timeform gave him a 130+ and the Racing Post gave him a 128 on their scale. The RPR is very interesting because it is 4 lbs higher than Sea The Stars' Derby and just 1 lb below Workforce's Derby and 2 lbs below Authorized's. In fact, it is the 5th highest Derby rating since 2000 and even 1 pound better than Galileo's.

The 118 is a pure speed rating. A rating of 140 is how fast the perfect race horse would run if he ran the perfect race. So Camelot ran 22 pounds (or approx 15 lengths) slower than that. My fastest ratings between 2010-2012 belong to Frankel 129 and Cirrus Des Aigles 127.

As far as I know, RPR and Timeform stick to the 140 limit to define a perfect horse, but their ratings are not speed ratings. They calculate them in a different way. For the sake of illustration, let's look at Frankel in the Lockinge.

Frankel beat the (then) 126 rated Excelebration by 5 lengths. Over a distance of one mile, 5 lengths translates to approx. 10 pounds. That suggests that TF/RPR would rate Frankel around 136. (Their ratings are refined further on the basis of time, draw, going, improvement in the horse, etc, but this is the main component).

RPR landed on 139, TF on 142. Funnily enough, the official handicapper followed the RPR, he raised both Frankel and Excelebration by 3 lbs, they are now rated 139 and 129 resp. A questionable move imo, but anyway.