Odds

[DigitalDownsJoe]

What do you think IHA will go off final odds, and what is your line on him? I would say he goes off around even money, I would say he is worth close to 2/1. If he dips under that I will probably just pass on the race all together. I do think he has a good chance to win it. I predicted he would win the Preakness and made a nice profit on the race. I think the horse has more heart then any horse I have seen in a few years. Look back to the Santa Anita Derby, and watch what this horse did at the top of the stretch. That to me was even more impressive then the last two. In any case, I am excited to watch the race. I was just curious how much of an underlay he is going to be? Daily Racing Form has him 4/5...Lots of hype, and many casual betters will bet big on the hype.

[sevenall]

Whatever the number...it's going to be well below your 2-1 betting threshold.

[horses4courses]

I'll hazard a guess that IHA's odds will be between a low of even money, to a high of 8-5. I would shade the low end, too.
6-5, or 7-5, sounds close.

[Meunuco]

Reminds me of the post before the Preakness by the guy wondering how low Bodemeister would be. Fully confident that he was a lock.

This horse is not winning the Belmont. With all the really good horses that have failed to win the TC, the only way this horse does it is if David Stern was running things and fixed the race.

[rtrack]

Dullahan, Union Rags and Paynter are the only other horses who will take any money that is not pure speculation. I also find it hard to believe that any one of those three will be less than 3-1, even with IHA at something between 3/5 and 4/5.

Stone closers, with the exception of Victory Gallop, seem to finish second in the Belmont. That hurts Dullahan.

Union Rags could live up to his looks.

Paynter is a bit of enigma if only because--other than IHA--he is the only likely pace factor--and he wasn't that far from him in the SA Derby. If Paynter doesn't go to the front IHA may go wire to wire in the grand tradition of TC winners

My problem with Paynter is that he is the wise guy horse. The wise guy horse has never won. Go Green Alligator.

Whether or not you think IHA is going to win, he is undefeated in graded stakes around 2 turns and his speed figures tower over all others. Coupled with the souvenir money, he could be 2/5. Not exactly something to stay up all night waiting to bet the next day

It seems that a Sarava like winner is more likely to undo IHA than one of the obvious contenders--but looking over the advance pps it's hard to make a real case for any of them--IHA even has the highest Tomlinson distance figure going in now that Alpha's out

I'm leaning toward a single on the back end of pick 6 ticket and seeing what happens

[Simple Syrup]

I would expect about 4:5 by post time.

[Robert Goren]

I would expect about 4:5 by post time. That is probably pretty close. I would be surprised to see anything higher than 6/5.

[depalma113]

A Belmont Park $2 win ticket will be worth 5-1.

His odds will be even money or less.

[newtothegame]

Reminds me of the post before the Preakness by the guy wondering how low Bodemeister would be. Fully confident that he was a lock.

This horse is not winning the Belmont. With all the really good horses that have failed to win the TC, the only way this horse does it is if David Stern was running things and fixed the race.
nice little jab at the NBA and the Hornets getting the number 1 pick. Only problem is you make claims without any proff what so ever. a 13% chance is still a 13 % chance no matter how you look at it. You make it sound as if there was no chance at all.....:lol:

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I don't understand the point of view that 4/5 is an "underlay" on I'll Have Another. On paper he looks to romp, news from Belmont and after the Preakness is he's doing great. Fair odds for a horse that's got a 80 percent chance to win?

I'll be surprised if he's more than 1-2. Maybe 3-5 top end, wouldn't be shocked at 1-5 or 2-5.

Gotta remember that every $2 bettor who goes to track three times a decade will be buying a win ticket as a souvenir....

[jognlope]

I'm too excited to think about numbers! Jerry Bailey has been helping Gutierrez around track with IHA.

[Striker]

The Wynn in Vegas is offering IHA at 7-5 to win the Belmont.

[Producer]

I don't understand the point of view that 4/5 is an "underlay" on I'll Have Another. On paper he looks to romp, news from Belmont and after the Preakness is he's doing great. Fair odds for a horse that's got a 80 percent chance to win?

I'll be surprised if he's more than 1-2. Maybe 3-5 top end, wouldn't be shocked at 1-5 or 2-5.

Gotta remember that every $2 bettor who goes to track three times a decade will be buying a win ticket as a souvenir....



4-5 is most definitely an underlay. The previous 11 horses to try and win the triple crown all failed. The horse is running his 3rd race in 5 weeks. The horse looked exhausted, and rightfully so, after the Preakness. He has a jockey that has never rode a horse at Belmont, one of the trickiest tracks for a newcomer to ride, especially in a race this distance. The other main contenders are all well rested. The scrutiny from NYRA and the press on his trainer. Lack of the nasal strip, not that I think that really makes a difference, but O'neill had to be using it for a reason. Different race dynamics without Bode in here to make a solid pace. Lots of reasons 4-5 is an underlay.

[classhandicapper]

I think IHA is almost certainly going to be overbet, but to be honest I'm not particularly anxious to bet against him. I may even use him on top in some tickets if I can find value underneath him.

Quite a few of the horses that won the first two legs have disappointed in the Belmont, but most of them ran fairly well and either lost to a better horse or didn't get a good ride.

I would argue that Spectacular Bid, Real Quiet, and Smarty Jones might have won if they weren't moved too soon.

Silver Charm and Sunday Silence ran well.

Silver Charm ran very well but IMO lost to a better horse (Touch Gold) and Sunday Silence lost to a horse that was his approximate equal (Easy Goer) on a track with large sweeping sweeping turns that took away his advantage, on a day when outside closers were dominating, and it was EG's home track.

Funny Cide may not have run a peak, but he ran OK and lost to Empire Maker who had beaten him the Wood also.

A few of the others also had excuses.

Big Brown missed some training between the Preakness and Belmont, had steroids off, was given a terrible ride when taken outside on a day when the inside was better, lost a shoe, and the sun was in his eyes. :lol:

Charismatic came out of the race hurt.

The Belmont has kind of gained this reputation as being very unpredictable, but I don't think that's really the case when a legitimate top horse comes into the race. I think this has more or less been a run of bad luck.

Granted, figuring out if a horse is likely to get the 12F is a unique issue, but I see nothing in IHA's pedigree or running style that suggests he's not likely to not get it. In fact, I think he's more likely than the average horse.

[classhandicapper]

I'm too excited to think about numbers! Jerry Bailey has been helping Gutierrez around track with IHA.

Is that true?

[Meunuco]

I'm too excited to think about numbers! Jerry Bailey has been helping Gutierrez around track with IHA.

Good idea. Just in case some other jock decides to do to IHA what Bailey tried to do to Smarty Jones. Nothing like going directly to the source. Maybe he'll 'tutor' Gutierrez into a wide trip.

[jognlope]

Bailey knows Belmont that's all. I guess he knew something since he had highest winnings.

[PaceAdvantage]

I thought it was Migliore that was helping...

[turninforhome10]

I thought it was Migliore that was helping...
It is
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/70284/migliore-belmont--a-challenge-for-mario

[Valuist]

He'll be 4-5. Dullahan and Union Rags will be 2nd and 3rd choices. After that, nobody, including Paynter, will be below 10-1.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

4-5 is most definitely an underlay. The previous 11 horses to try and win the triple crown all failed. The horse is running his 3rd race in 5 weeks. The horse looked exhausted, and rightfully so, after the Preakness. He has a jockey that has never rode a horse at Belmont, one of the trickiest tracks for a newcomer to ride, especially in a race this distance. The other main contenders are all well rested. The scrutiny from NYRA and the press on his trainer. Lack of the nasal strip, not that I think that really makes a difference, but O'neill had to be using it for a reason. Different race dynamics without Bode in here to make a solid pace. Lots of reasons 4-5 is an underlay.

I agree with many of your points, which is why I think IHA only has a 80% of winning.

The problem is that even if he regresses off the Preakness, and runs a 103-105 Beyer in the Belmont, what other horse can beat that? I think this is a HORRIBLE 3YO crop, and only Bode and IHA have shown their decent horses.

I've been playing the Belmont since the mid-1980s, and have bet against the nine horses that had a chance to win the Triple Crown since then - because I could always find a horse that could beat them. I've had 5 winners in those 9 races, including Birdstone, who I lucked out with when Smarty Jones made an early move.

This year I can't find a horse to beat the chalk. I'm bummed.

The bit of news in this thread that gives me pause though is the Wynn having IHA at 7-5? For a California based horse? Hmmmm......

[RXB]

I agree with many of your points, which is why I think IHA only has a 80% of winning.


If you went out and publicly offered the rest of the field at 4/1 (that's break-even at 20% chance of winning), just about every serious horseplayer in the world who caught wind of it would be coming at you with a boatload of cash.

[Producer]

I agree with many of your points, which is why I think IHA only has a 80% of winning.

The problem is that even if he regresses off the Preakness, and runs a 103-105 Beyer in the Belmont, what other horse can beat that? I think this is a HORRIBLE 3YO crop, and only Bode and IHA have shown their decent horses.

I've been playing the Belmont since the mid-1980s, and have bet against the nine horses that had a chance to win the Triple Crown since then - because I could always find a horse that could beat them. I've had 5 winners in those 9 races, including Birdstone, who I lucked out with when Smarty Jones made an early move.

This year I can't find a horse to beat the chalk. I'm bummed.

The bit of news in this thread that gives me pause though is the Wynn having IHA at 7-5? For a California based horse? Hmmmm......




I can't say that I really love any of the others either, but.................I still believe 4-5 is way to low. I don't know what it is but I have a "gut feeling" that IHA isn't gonna run nearly the race he ran the last two times. Not much behind it but some of the biggest scores of my life have come from a "gut feeling" sort of play. I do hope I'm wrong and he does win, for obvious reasons. But the game is about making money, not emotional attachment, so I'll take a shot against him.

Edited the post just to say, if IHA regresses to running about a 99-102 fig, which I think is very possible, about 4 or 5 others could beat him with very minimal improvement. Odds-on is way too low for me when I believe a situation such as this presents itself.

[castaway01]

With the history of the Belmont in recent years, it would be impossible to take 4-5 or even money (which is what I expect IHA to be) on the favorite. I don't even particularly love any other horse, but we've seen so many strange winners who didn't figure---the last four Belmont winners have been higher than 10-1, and you've also got Bird Stone and Sarava at massive odds in the past decade. There are just too many uncertain factors to take that price. If you could get 2-1, sure, that's wonderful, but it's not happening.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

If you went out and publicly offered the rest of the field at 4/1 (that's break-even at 20% chance of winning), just about every serious horseplayer in the world who caught wind of it would be coming at you with a boatload of cash.

Field would be closer to 3/1 with breakage, but I get the drift. Checking some of the overseas sites, I can get 5/4 or evens on IHA, 3-1 on Dullahan, and so forth. Can't find a "field against the chalk", but it would 4/5 or so I guess, based on the win odds of IHA.

If I was running a book, I'd definitely inflate the odds of the other horses to attract the money (and profits).

Now the real wild card here might be the weather - a sloppy race track could throw a wrench into the race, based on IHA's poor performance in the Hopeful.

But if I'm right about IHA's odds being 1-2 or so with the track fast, then with a little clever dutching, the serious horseplayers of the world with boatloads of cash ought to be able to turn a nice profit in the Belmont - assuming a more accurate prediction of IHA's chances of winning are only 25-35%, and not 80%.....

[castaway01]

Even if you can get 2-1 on I'll Have Another now, don't take it....

[Valuist]

Why is Five Sixteen only 16-1? Looks every bit of at least 40-1. Must be the crowd betting on Rosie. A startling underlay.

[tzipi]

Geez, people today bet the hell out of these no shot horses ever since Giacomo won. You never even see a "FIELD horses" bet anymore now. Let them bet away. Never see horses go off at 99-1 anymore.