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View Full Version : Belmont Park Picks: Monday, May 28


Teach
05-28-2012, 11:59 AM
Monday, May 28, 2012



Race One:

My pick in the opener is :3: Eltheeb. This horse is very well bred, e.g., Bernardini, AP Indy, Fusaichi Pegasus, etc. David Cohen rides for trainer David Jacobson. The horse has been running against much better, including an appearance last fall in the Grade 3 100K Grade 3 Discovery Handicap. In his most recent race, the horse finished third in the slop in a 30k claimer. This is a relatively young horse, a 4-year-old colt. I’m a bit mystified why he’s entered in 14K company. I see #9 Person of Interest as the major threat. The red-hot Ramon Dominguez (he booted home four winners, along with two seconds and two thirds on yesterday’s card) retains the ride for trainer Rick Dutrow. The Tapit- (sired by Pulpit) bred horse has faced much better in his career (his two most recent efforts were against allowance company). My question: Why is the horse dropping in a tag, a lower-than-expected tag, at that. Last year at this time he was at least running in 25K claimers. Yet, the 5-year-old recently drilled a three furlong “bullet” up at Saratoga. On paper - the DRF - the horse looks like “the logical”. Yet, I keep getting an unsettled feeling about this scenario. Rhetorically: Am I’m looking at the glass of water as “half-empty”? Underneath, the pickings are slim. I can make a case for #5 Crepe Au Sucre (Sugar Pancakes) with Abel (ah-Bell) Lezcano. The horse was last entered in the 85K Cannon Shell (in a race taken off the turf) a couple weeks ago. The horse finished last. Prior to that, he raced in a one-mile optional claimer; it was a race in which he closed well to finish fourth. This Forty Niner-bred gelding might just surprise and add value to your ticket. Another possibility #6 Hill Crossing is ridden by Eddie Castro and trained by Carlos Guerrero (Guerrero has two winners out of four starters so far in the meet). The horse, who may well be on or near “the engine,” finished second in this company in the mud in his last. Prior to that, he won his tenth race in 35 career starts. This classy Deputy Minister-bred horse can be in the mix in this field.



Race Two:




I’m going way out on the limb here. I’m looking for value. My choice is :9: Prize Catch. She most certainlyhas a chance to make his presence known. Rajiv Maragh rides of Angel Penna, Jr. True, the mare hasn’t shown much, lately. Part of the reason is that she hasn’t taken part in a pari-mutuel races since last September at Saratoga. She was last seen finishing fifth on the turf in the Grade 3 Glens Falls. Yes, I am concerned that the AP Indy-bred mare’s works are nothing to write home about. Yet, I feel the horse has the ability, on his best, to take all the enchiladas. I like the fact that the mare has an outside starting post (I believe that should help) and that she’s won three of her ten lifetime turf tries. #4 Blue Maiden with Julian Leparoux in the irons looks like a possible contender. The European-bred 5-year-old mare won in allowance turf company a month ago at Keeneland. The mare has hit the tote in 10 out of 15 turf tries. As she did in her most recent race, the mare should be unleashing her closing stretch kick. The most capable Christophe Clement trains. Another horse that merits serious consideration is #2 Fontley. Jose Lezcano rides for trainer Christophe Clement. The bred-for-the-turf Sadlers Wells progeny ships across the Atlantic after competing with mixed results in stakes and allowance company in the UK. The horse has hit the tote in seven of 17 turf tries. A note of caution: the mare hasn’t raced since last September. I would call her morning work-tab: decent. Hard to gauge. Certainly worth a look both on the track and on the tote.


Race Three:


In this maiden special weight New York-breds sprint, there are a lot of unknowns to deal with, especially with a plethora of first-time starters. Well, I’m going to take a shot with a first-time starter. Admittedly, a gambler’s throw. My tepid choice here is :9: Breathaway. I must first admit I admire the riding skills of jockey Javier Castellano. Also, this Greg Sacco-trained 3-year-old colt is very well bred, e.g., Fusaichi Pegasus. I see Wild Again breeding on the dam’s side. If there’s any moisture on the track (I doubt it) that would further enhance this horse’s chances. I see #4 Fair Trade with Alan Garcia as “the logical” horse here. The 3-year-old Seth Benzel-trained colt almost broke his maiden last time in similar company; he finished second to N.F.s Destiny at Aqueduct. The winning time was a sterling 1:10.2. If the colt can run back to that race, he would be very tought to beat.. Next, I’m going to try for a longshot with Kent Desormeaux‘s rail horse, #1 Even Got Quiet. The jockey change to this Stephen Got Even-bred colt is very big. I’m not crazy about the horse starting from the inside post, but Desormeaux is skilled enough to angle the colt to the outside for the stretch run. The horse finished fourth in that N.F.s Destiny race. Any improvement could pay dividends. #7 Readthebyline ran third a little over two weeks ago in similar company. The horse looks a bit like the bridesmaid type; he’s hit the tote in five of nine lifetime tries. At the six-furlong distance the colt has three seconds and one third in five tries.



Race Four:




My pick is :3: Rally Point. The colt was pinched back along the rail in her last start earlier in the month at Churchill Downs. The horse also ran into traffic on the inside both on the backstretch and in the lane. A cleaner trip with the riding skills of Julien Leparoux would all that would seem necessary for this horse to be first to cross under the wire. This Gulch-bred colt is trained by Ken McPeek. I’m now looking to the outside for other horses that I believe can be most competitive in this race. #12 Parachute Coney with Mike Luzzi won his last on the dirt. Yet, the horse does have a third in two turf tries. Last month, he finished in the show position at in a maiden special weight turf race at Aqueduct; he went off at 12-1. #11 Man In Brown Suit has one win in two turf tries. Jockey Jose Lezcano rides for trainer Eddie Kenneally. This Storm Cat-bred gelding’s only win on the turf came against slightly better claiming company at Aqueduct in late March.



Race Five:




In this state-bred maiden inner turf sprint for fillies and mares I like :13: Mighty Reward (if she draws in). The Rosie Napravnik-ridden Mark Shuman-trained Storm Cat-bred filly just missed breaking her maiden in a similar race last month. Any slight improvement and this horse can head for the winner’s circle. #11 Ornellia with the “on the muscle,” sizzling pilot, Ramon Dominguez, turns back a couple furlongs in an effort to break her maiden. The horse should benefit from the shorter distance of ground. The “007” trainee just missed breaking her maiden a couple starts back in special weight company at Aqueduct. Another horse who can contend in this company is #12 White Glove. Julien Laparoux rides for trainer John Kimmel. The Storm Cat-bred filly failed as the favorite against similar company in her last start. She may benefit from that last effort. Finally, #5 Quiet Ending with Jose Lezcano has a second and a fourth in two two tries on the lawn. She has vied against slightly softer, yet this Christophe Clement-trained charge might surprise and add value to your exotics.



Race Six:




I’m going to go with “the logical“ here, :4: Buffum. This is the horse to beat in this optional claimer route. On paper, it looks like a soft spot for this well-bred, highly-priced four-year old colt. But, one caveat: he has been off since last September when he had apparently won an optional claimer only to be DQ’ed and placed second. His morning works are mediocre. That doesn’t mean the horse can’t win; yet, there won’t be much value. I see as a threat if the top choice fails to perform up to expectations the #9 Star Of New York. Ramon Dominguez rides for trainer Rick Dutrow. This 6-year-old Carson City-bred gelding has won three of his last five starts. He was last seen in stakes company in late April; he finished third. He now drops into an optional claimer. #6 Gallant Fields is a Smarty Jones-bred gelding; he has been second three times in his last four starts. He is going an extra furlong off his last start, but he should be able to get the distance. David Cohen rides for trainer David Jacobson. The horse has hit the tote in 11 of 13 lifetime starts. Another contender (or as Marlon Brando would have said in “On The Waterfront”: “contendah”) in this route race to be #3 Simba’s Story. Johnny V. is in the irons for trainer Todd Pletcher. The Gone West-bred colt has hit the board in four of his last five starts. He’s 8 for 10 lifetime in the money.



Race Seven:




Next up, the Grade 2 Sands Point (it brings back memories; I used to teach in Manhasset, NY). My pick here is “the logical,” and I might add the most expected prohibitive favorite, :3: Somali Lemonade. The filly was last seen finishing second (she was bumped at the start and rallied in the stretch to finish second) at Keeneland in the Grade 3 Appalachian. The added half-a-furlong should enhance this Lemon Drop Kid-bred filly’s chances. Johnny Velazquez is aboard for trainer Mike Matz. Another horse in the mix is #5 Ragalio Mia with Javier Castellano. The horse finished third in the Appalachian. The bred-for-the-turf filly has hit the tote in all five of her turf races. Then, there’s #8 Firehouse Red with Rosie Napravnik. This filly was fourth in the Appalachian behind the two aforementioned horses. After that, the filly raced in the Edgewood at Churchill Downs; she finished second. Lifetime, the filly has hit the tote in six of seven lifetime turf tries. Finally, last but not least, #7 Zultanite. The Mr Greeley-bred filly has raced against softer company; however, she’s most capable of being part of an exotic. The razor-sharp Ramon Dominguez puts his feet in the irons for trainer David Donk.



Race Eight:



In the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps at a mile and one-sixteenth, my pick is :2: Awesome Maria. The Paul Robsham-bred, Todd Pletcher-trained, John Velazquez ridden mare has won six races in a row! In fact, the mare has won 9 of 14 lifetime starts. She’s only been off the board once. It should be noted that she hasn’t raced in a couple months; however she drilled a “bullet” in the slop last week. Should be the prohibitive favorite. #4 It’s Tricky looks like the main threat. The AP Indy-bred filly has been either first or second in all seven of her recent races. She was second in The Alabama last August. Finally, #3 She’s All In with Luis Quinonez ships in from Hawthorne where the mare easily won a Grade 3 event. This Broad Brush-bred mare most certainly fits in this company. She’s hit the tote in all eight of her recent starts.



Race Nine:



In the Grade 1 Acorn for 3-year old fillies and mares my top pick is the rail horse, :1: Contested. The well-bred filly has won three straight, the most recent The Grade 3 Eight Belles at Churchill Downs. The filly is stretching out a extra furlong, but she should be able to handle the added ground. Javier Castellano rides for Bob Baffert. Another horse to consider is #3 On Fire Baby. The Smoke Glacken-bred filly ships in from Kentucky where she faded to fifth in the final furlong of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She now shortens up a furlong; that may well enhance her chances here. Also worthy of consideration is #4 Zo Impressive. She was second in late March in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. This Danzig-bred filly is also cutting back a furlong. That should improve her chances. Finally, a long shot try to enhance your gimmicks, #2 Hard Mystery. The Eddie Castro-ridden, George Weaver-trained easily won her last races in stakes company. In fact, she’s won three of her last four. Her lifetime mark is four wins and two seconds in eight starts.



Race Ten:



In the Grade 1 Metropolitan I like :1: To Honor And Serve. The horse has won four of his last fives races, including the Grade 3 Westchester and Grade 1 Cigar Mile. The only race the horse recently lost was a mile and one-quarter race at Churchill Downs. Jockey Jose Lezcano rides for the Hall-of-Fame trainer, Bill Mott. #3 Caleb’s Posse looks like “the logical”. He’s been installed as the morning line fave at 8-to-5. He’s sure to take his share of the action. In his last race, he was second in the Carter by a nose to Jackson Bend. Prior to that, he was second by a neck in the Tom Fool. The horse has had a string of solid morning works leading up to this race. Rajiv Maragh ride for trainer Donnie Von Hemel. There is also the aforementioned #6 Jackson Bend, who, as cited, recently won the Carter Handicap. In fact, the Carson City-bred horse has hit the tote in all eight of his recent starts. Corey Nakatani rides for trainer Nick Zito. Then, there’s #2 Shackleford. He recently won the 7 furlong Grade 2 Churchill Downs at the Louisville oval. Prior to that he was third in The Carter Handicap. John Velazquez rides for trainer Dale Romans.



Race Eleven:



In the finale, I like :12: Barnards Galaxy. The Jon Velazquez ridden, Leo O’Brien-trained Mr. Greeley-bred gelding is stretching out an extra furlong in this maiden special weights turf race to be contested over the distance of one mile on the Widener Turf Course. The gelding was a closing third in his most recent effort, a 25K claimer. He may surprise and add value to your ticket. #5 Windafull is “the logical”. He’s been installed as the ML “fave”. Cornelio Velasquez is in the irons for Rudy Rodriguez. The horse has hit the tote in five of eight turf tries. One caveat: he hasn’t been in a pari-mutual race for five months; his morning work tab has not been impressive. Yet… Also worthy of consideration is #1 El Arquero (“The Archer”) was fifth in his first start at six furlongs for trainer Seth Benzel. He should improve off that effort. Junior Alvarado is in the irons. Finally, #3 Easy Street with Javier Castellano for trainer Tom Bush finished third as the fave in a mile and one-sixteenth turf race. He can improve off the effort. The horse may benefit from cutting back a half furlong.

iceknight
05-28-2012, 06:28 PM
NICE THREAD AND ANALYSIS. Saw it only close to the end of the day, but it still helped with an EX in the lucky last 11th.. so I wont be going home empty..lol! thanks!

WaHoo
05-28-2012, 06:52 PM
Nice handicapping you had 6 pick3's and early pk4's