Interesting Pizzolla article for hard-cores.

[Fastracehorse]

http://www.handicappingmagic.com/article.php

fffastt

[kingfin66]

He's quite a horseplayer in my view. I could never bet like he does. I find myself gravitating more towards the style of his associate, Eric Langjahr, betting the value horses to win only.

[Speed Figure]

Fast,

Thanks for the link! :cool:

[Derek2U]

Whats a WoP & a Swede (Eskimo?) pairing up 4? I dont trust
them cause u would need a space suit 2 keep their ColtShit off.
They no (know) ZERO bout what makes a Horse Race. I challenge
them + that other capPretenseNewsLetterHoncho Mr BM. Me, DJC, vs them 3!!!! Here in PA, capping races at any track determined by some impartial Regular. (I would even accept Keilan deciding the Races, lets say 20 races, & I say that w/ a little tremble cause Canadians dont like real USA guys like me) but seem 2 prefer the Garlic+WhaleBlubberIceDweller types. Ok, I have said Contest .... ** the reason I say some1 decide the Races is bcause the only races they could win is from a tiP from some of those crooked trainer-owner duos they know. POT: lets saY 5K each (USA dollars of corse). hehe ... Open & in PA B4 the
races are Over. DJC

[Derek2U]

Hey Guys ... My post came off 2 arrengent. Sorry. I was HiGH
on life & lovin it all. But just the same, be careful who U think
know something U dont/couldnt. There mostly huckstERS. Just
my ideas (which I know any Real Author/Capper would thank me
4 Expressing.) derek

[MV McKee]

Maybe I'm missing something, but I have absolutely no idea what the previous posting was about.

I liked the article, but I really felt that the Editor's notes were right on. I am virtually certain that there are a handfull of player's who have ascended to a tier where anonimity is of paramount importance. None of us will ever read an interview with them.
Don't get me wrong, many of the people who write books are solid handicapper's in their own right.
In comparing handicapping to the NBA, we would get books authored by, and read articles about players like Rick Fox and Steve Kerr. It takes an awesome amount of talent to make it to that level, and there is no knock against anyone who even made it to the show.
But I suspect that we will never find an article about, or have the chance to buy a book by the Bird's, Jordan's or Kareem's of the handicapping world.
Kinda reminds me of Keyser Soze.

[keilan]

That was as good as you've come up with for a long while.

"Garlic+WhaleBlubberIceDweller types" I'm still chuckling as I write this.

I would most certainly moderate any contest that would involve you and the goliath's of this game. It would be tough to be remain impartial cause I'd be cheering ya all the way. Go getem killer!! hehe

Damn US junior hockey team - GRRRRRR :p

[BillW]

Originally posted by keilan

Damn US junior hockey team - GRRRRRR :p

Pittsburgh hockey is in a sad state when they can't even help CANADA to win a tourney. :eek:

Bill

[keilan]

Not a happy couple days for Canadian Hockey -- If our boys had hung on and won, Canada would be the current holder of all the major hockey titles in the world.

Winnipeg ( anyone remember the Jets) has contacted the brass in Pittsburgh recently to see if the Penguins would consider re-locating.

Personally I would love the NHL to go back to a 20 team league, the on-ice product has been watered down so badly that the skilled players are often invisible. Total defense and "the trap" have chocked the excitement out of the game IMO. :)

[cj]

Hey Keith,

On the bright side, though your team didn't win the Juniors, they did put the winning goal in the net :D:D:D

See you all in a few days, checking out for now...

[keilan]

Craig -- enjoy and stay safe.

Talk with you when you get set up.

Take care bro.


P.S.

Damn I hate those sissy American hockey players ;)

[JustRalph]

isn't that article in the first few pages of the book this guy wrote?

is this just an adverstisement for an old book?

[Shacopate]

Ralph,

Part of it is quoted on the back of the Handicapping Magic book, the article was written in the year 2000.

[Fastracehorse]

I will not glorify any handicapper, including Pizzolla, without documented stats to back it up.

I think alot of good but unsuccessful handicappers have his ideology as well.

BTW,

Competetion?? Did you say competition?? I'm doing Gulfstream right now - see you in the selections forum tomorrow.

:) :( :o :D ;) :p :cool:

fffastt

[andicap]

Originally posted by Derek2U
Hey Guys ... My post came off 2 arrengent. Sorry. I was HiGH
on life & lovin it all. But just the same, be careful who U think
know something U dont/couldnt. There mostly huckstERS. Just
my ideas (which I know any Real Author/Capper would thank me
4 Expressing.) derek

Ive extended this invitation before and will do so again. You work and live in NYC. I work in NYC.
I would love to meet you for drinks and talk horses, etc.. I don't think people on this board appreciate your sense of humor....(hard to communicate put ons and irony through this forum.)
Sorry I don't show up in the war room -- tough when i'm working and on weekends I've got family duty. I'm lucky if I can catch the occasional race on TVG.

[andicap]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
http://www.handicappingmagic.com/article.php

fffastt

From Bill Finley article somewhere. Believe it had been posted here before as I have seen it. Either that or it's been on his website for a while.
He uses to promote himself.

For what its worth, I've heard enough stories of people who have gone to his seminars and seen him win big to believe that he does so. He's a brilliant and ballsy man, a professional magician and attorney who has studied Eastern religous and mysticism.
The key to his winning I believe is his guts, his ability to push lots of money through the windows on longshots and wait out Looooong losing streaks with equanimity. How many of us could do that? Damn few.
Eric, who I remember from Prodigy racing board -- he was an excellent contributor whose posts were smart and articulate -- plays maybe 1 or 2 races a day total! (not just per card). Just as hard to do as Pizzolla since you better be damn sure you're right if you play that rarely and pushing through the money he must bet for such limited plays.

They are both excellent communicators and charmistic. I heard some of one of his t ape series and it's a great listen.
Do I use his stuff? no, but I am trying to see if the fulcrum idea would work with say, HTR figures. (as opposed to raw figures which he uses.) It makes sense.

Pizzolla's idea that you don't have to have the most accurate numbers as long as you're getting excellent value and know how to bet rings valid to me.
If you think a horse is 4-1 and it's 20-1 on the board, the numbers don't have to be that accurate bercause even if the horse should be 7-1, its still "value." for longshot players.
(yes, Karl and ranch, I know it's not your style.)

Tough bets to make when they win maybe once every 10 times.
One key to Pizzolla's winning is his "If it's too good to be true, it can't be" overlay philosophy, something people overlook.

Not all overlays are created equal. A horse that looks decent on paper yet is 20-1 on the board is a false overlay. True overlays are those who show flaws in the DRF that the public hate and thus ignore the horse (low Beyers, poor class, dull form on today's surface.) He has a method I keep forgetting to try but sounds worth it:
Give a very quick glance (can't remember what he calls it) over the entire race and then write down your opionions of each horses records for
Speed, Class and Form. If you give a horse good marks relative to the field and it's a longshot, something's amiss.

[shanta]

PIZZOLA USES THE TERM "SOFT FOCUS" TO DESCRIBE HIS INITIAL RUN THROUGH THE PP'S. I THINK THATS THE TERM YOU ARE REFERRING TO. I DO THIS "SOFT FOCUS RUN THROUGH" TWICE IN EVERY RACE I AM WORKING. VERY VERY HELPFUL WHEN IT CAN BE DONE IN A VERY QUIET AND FOCUSED ENVIRONMENT.NOT SOMETHING LIMITED TO DOING JUST WITH HIS SOFTWARE. RICHIE

[JustMissed]

Is it racist to refer to an Italian as a 'wop"?

[VetScratch]

D2U,Ok, I have said Contest .... ** the reason I say some1 decide the Races is bcause the only races they could win is from a tiP from some of those crooked trainer-owner duos they know. POT: lets saY 5K each (USA dollars of corse).You would be well advised to emulate their business model. Many barns have a house handicapper who they consult with on occasions when they have a horse sitting on ready for reasons that will escape the public. I don't mean drugs, since usage is so widespread. I mean for legitimate unpublished reasons plus anything else that can help produce a true hidden ability surprise.

Since turnaround projects will usually be running beneath their inherent class level, this is a much more valuable trainer intent angle than expecting a good race from a fairly obvious contender. A capable 50-horse barn might have only ten or fewer REALLY VALUABLE and sudden surprises to spring (intentionally) in a given year, and maybe 20% of these will succeed on first asking when outstanding value is available. To gain an extra edge, some trainers and even jockey agents have a private handicapper who they consult with in order to cover all the bases in and around key races. You just have to keep the dampers on your own greed to keep the phone ringing. Moreover, the foolish variety of owners usually get stiffed because they can't be restrained from wrecking a good thing.

A 20% success rate with a few key value opportunities can make any year, especially if you can play the exotics without treading too heavily on your sources.

[Fastracehorse]

< Many barns have a house handicapper who they consult with on occasions when they have a horse sitting on ready for reasons that will escape the public.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

True, but rarely does a horse that alludes the public, show nothing - trainers almost always 'tip their hand' somehow. It's very useful to have some excuse for the judges.

BTW,

An excellent post by yourself.

fffastt

[Tom]

I would love to come to NYC to have drinks and talk horses with andicap and Derk2U.
n'uck, n'uck, n'uck! :D

[Maxspa]

All,
I first met Michael Pizzola at a Sartin Seminar in the early 90's and have attended his own HNI seminars. He is dynamic, an excellent teacher and a credit to the Handicapping Fraternity. His honesty and upfront approach to handicapping should be appreciated because in this game there are some questionable characters some of which have been discussed on this board.
One of the problems that ordinary handicappers have with his programs is that we can't rely on his brilliance to come up with his race choices and overlay horses. We always seem to miss an important correlation that gives him the edge.
I agree with Andy that his fulcrum horse is an important handicapping technique. Please share the results with us when you check on your adaptation to this important tool.
In summary, Michael Pizzola is the real deal. He has demonstrated his expertise publicly and is one of the few winning handicappers that is willing to share his findings.
Maxspa

[andicap]

Originally posted by Tom
I would love to come to NYC to have drinks and talk horses with andicap and Derk2U.
n'uck, n'uck, n'uck! :D

No response yet. Even money I get none.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by JustMissed
Is it racist to refer to an Italian as a 'wop"?


JustRalph, the reason your post says it was edited by me is that I accidentally hit the "EDIT" button instead of the QUOTE button....in any event, here is my response to your inquiry:

I'm half Italian, and I let it slide off my greasy back......LOL

Seriously though folks, I wouldn't call it racist, just a stereotype from the old, OLD days (afterall, it stands for Without Papers, right? How upset are you going to get over that stupid immigration joke in the year 2004????)

[JustRalph]

justralph...........justmissed........either way we got it.....


JustRalph

[PaceAdvantage]

Sign me,

JustDUH!!!


Sorry bout that....