Odd question

[misscashalot]

If, in a 10 horses field, at the bell every horse had the same amount of $ in the win pool, what would the odds be for each horse?

[PaceAdvantage]

9-1...

If each horse has the same amount of money bet to win, that means theoretically they all have the same chance of winning. In a ten horse field, that would be a 10% chance...and that equals 9-1.

[Ocala Mike]

PA's answer is correct if there were no takeout; unfortunately, in the real world we are not going to find that.

Assuming a 17% WPS takeout (NY?), every horse in a 10-horse field would be a $16.60 proposition, and show on the board at 7/1.

[PaceAdvantage]

What Ocala Mike said... :lol: :blush:

[iceknight]

If, in a 10 horses field, at the bell every horse had the same amount of $ in the win pool, what would the odds be for each horse?

haha.. so this was not an odd question at all. It was an "odds" question! However, to add further to the discussion, you should google - developing odds line and figure out how to estimate your own chances of winning for the horses. Then you will know which ones are good! Good luck!

[Jeff P]

7 to 1 is close. But it really depends on the takeout.

Formulas for calculating Takeout Dollars and Odds before breakage is applied:

TakeoutDollars = (PoolAmt) x (TakeoutRate)

Odds = ((PoolAmt - TakeoutDollars) - AmtBetWinner) / (AmtBetWinner)


If we have a 10 horse field at TURF PARADISE (where the win pool takeout is 20.75%) and the total pool is $10k, with $1k bet to win on each horse, final odds for each horse can be calculated as follows:

First, Takeout Dollars:

TakeoutDollars = (PoolAmt) x (TakeoutRate)

TakeoutDollars = (10000) x (.2075)

TakeoutDollars = 2075


Next, Odds before breakage is applied:

Odds = ((PoolAmt - TakeoutDollars) - AmtBetWinner) / (AmtBetWinner)

Odds = ((10000 - 2075) - 1000) / (1000)

Odds = (7925 - 1000) / (1000)

Odds = (6925) / (1000)

Odds = 6.9250 to 1

$2.00 Win Mutuel: $15.80


Next, the same $10k win pool with $1k bet on each horse calculation at HASTINGS PARK where the win pool takeout is just 15.00%:

First, Takeout Dollars:

TakeoutDollars = (PoolAmt) x (TakeoutRate)

TakeoutDollars = (10000) x (.1500)

TakeoutDollars = 1500


Next, Odds before breakage is applied:

Odds = ((PoolAmt - TakeoutDollars) - AmtBetWinner) / (AmtBetWinner)

Odds = ((10000 - 1500) - 1000) / (1000)

Odds = (8500 - 1000) / (1000)

Odds = (7500) / (1000)

Odds = 7.50 to 1

$2.00 Win Mutuel: $17.00

Using the above example, the difference in takeout between Hastings Park and Turf Paradise causes the $2.00 win mutuel to be about 7.5% higher at Hastings Park than the win mutuel for same pool at Turf Paradise.


-jp

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