PDA

View Full Version : Belmont Picks: Saturday, May 26


Teach
05-26-2012, 12:00 PM
Saturday, May 26, 2012.



Race One:

In this tough-to-handicap, short-field sprint I’m giving my tepid nod to :2: Smokin Hero with Corey Nakatani. This 6-year-old gelding could do little in his last race; it was his first start in over three months. He needed that one. It was a race in which the horse finished seventh after he had charged to the front from an outside post in a six-furlong sprint. Last summer and fall, this Smokin Mel-bred horse was competing in New York-bred stakes events. It appears that the horse would benefit from a wet track, but I believe he can do well on a dry one, as well. He’s hit the tote in two out of four attempts at the distance. The gelding recently worked four furlongs in :48, breezing. He appears ready. Another horse to consider is #4 Recurring Dream with Eddie Castro. In his three lifetime starts, the horse has won twice and finished third. This Tale Of The Cat-bred chestnut gelding won the only time he raced at this distance; it was in allowance company on a muddy track. He is cutting back to a sprint; that may enhance his chances. A third horse to consider is the rail horse, #1 Sailmate. This horse could be “the sleeper”. However, he may prefer a route to a sprint. Yet, he has hit the tote in four of his five lifetime starts. However, he hasn’t been seen in a pari-mutuel circles since he last raced up at “The Spa” in “The Albany” in late-August, 2011. The horse did have a recent, sharp four-furlong work. It seems to indicate the horse is ready. Yet, nine months is long time to be away from the races. David Cohen rides for trainer John Kimmel (he won one yesterday). Finally, #3 Moonlight Song should move up on a wet surface. Junior Alvarado rides this Unbridled’s Song-bred gelding. The horse has won two of his three starts.



Race Two:



We come right back with a maiden sprint; it’s another challenging race to handicap. This one is for New York State-bred fillies and mares. I’m picking :3: Joy Rising. I’m predicating my choice on the fact that the filly has solid wet-track breeding (it was sloppy/muddy Friday at Belmont). The Storm Cat-bred filly returns to the dirt after showing little in a turf sprint (she got caught four-wide and had nothing in the tank for a stretch run). This is the horse’s second start off a layoff. Junior Alvarado is in the irons for trainer Jim Ferraro. If the filly can get a clean trip (she also stumbled at the start in her last), she might just surprise and add value to your early double. Another horse to consider is #6 Read The Research. Last year, as a two-year old, this Storm Cat-bred filly had two races. One was a sprint on a muddy track, the other was also a sprint, but on the turf. Both took place at Saratoga last summer. Frankly, the filly showed very little. However, she was well bet, especially in her wet-track dirt race. Well, one thing’s for sure, this filly is nicely bred. She just might have not been ready for “the big time” as a two-year-old. She’s now had about a year to mature. Her morning works are decent, especially a 48.4 breezing from the gate a few weeks ago. Rajiv Maragh rides for Terri Pompay (That combo had a winner yesterday with Commitment Letter). Another horse I like is #5 Freud’s Dream. You know what Sigmund Freud said, “Dreams are the ‘Royal Road To The Unconscious Mind‘”. Well, maybe the horse dreamt that she’d once again hit the board. She’s raced fifteen times and has hit the tote on eight occasions, but, alas, she’s never won. Could today be the day? Or, as Freud would have said, “Der Tag”. Anyway, the filly is switching from turf to dirt; I like that angle. She’s also running for a tag after racing in a special weight event. Oh, by the way, the horse has hit the board seven times in ten tries at this six-furlong distance. The up-and-coming Jose Ortiz rides for trainer Jim Ryerson. Finally, #2 Catalina Island is a well-bred filly who merits consideration. The horse is dropping in for a tag after racing in maiden special weights and stakes company. She’s garnered only one third-place finish in four lifetime tries. Yet, she does have some wet track breeding (Danzig) on her sire’s side, The horse was in tight between horses down the backstretch in her last; the jock then tried angling her to the inside down the stretch, to no avail.



Race Three:



My choice in this one-mile route is :5: Ender Knievel. The horse appeared overmatched in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby at Sunland Park in late March; he finished fifth after briefly gaining the lead on the backstretch. The horse is now back in with the kind he can compete with. The Todd Pletcher-trained Forty Niner-bred gelding has a first and a second in five lifetime starts. If the track is still wet from recent rains, this horse definitely moves up. As we move along, I see #3 This Hard Land as a factor. He won his last in the slop at Belmont a few weeks ago. If this race is run on a wet surface, it would certainly enhance this horse’s chances. Be that as it may, I still believe this horse is in the mix. I see another possible challenge coming from Corey Nakatani’s horse, #2 Term Loan. I’m sure this horse will receive a lot of attention from the betting public. After this Storm Cat-bred colt broke his maiden on March 17th, his connections decided to forwardly enter him the prestigious Grade 2 Jerome at Aqueduct. Well, he finished sixth and last in a race won by Lumber Guy. The DRF comment line stated he was “Rated unkindly”. Can he make amends? It’s certainly possible. #6 Private Tale has hit the board in four of his five lifetime starts. Javier Castellano rides for Mike Trombetta. The horse ships in from Philly where he had two wins a second and a third. His recent work was a solid 1:01.2 for five furlongs, breezing.



Race Four:



In this mile and one-sixteenth maiden route, I’m going out on the limb with my longshot special. I like the first-time starter, :6: Beach Boy Alex. What caught my attention about this John Velazquez-ridden, Gary Contessa-trained colt is that he has an Afleet Alex pedigree. As you may recall, in 2005, Afleet Alex won both The Preakness (the horse was jolted to his knees; jockey Jeremy Rose was almost unseated) and also The Belmont Stakes. Although the horse’s morning work tab is nothing to write home about, I believe this horse has got a shot to take all the enchiladas. I’ll be taking a close look at him, both on the track and on the tote. #2 Desert Storm with Junior Alvarado is in the irons for “Hall of Fame” trainer Bill Mott, appears to be “the logical“. This Tiznow-bred colt has hit the tote in all four of his pari-mutuel starts. The horse should be on or near the lead. One caveat: he hasn’t raced in nearly 50 days. Also, the horse’s morning work-tab has been mediocre. That said, if the colt is reasonably ready, he can be right there. #8 Arkansas Joe with Corey Nakatani has hit the tote in two of three lifetime starts. The horse held well for third in his last at a mile. Prior to that he finished second at Gulfstream, also at a mile. The horse did turn in a sharp four-furlong work about a week ago. Look for this Nick Zito-trainee to be near the front of the field.



Race Five:



With the race taken off the turf and put back on the main track I like is the MTO, :16: Cameron Canyon. The 3-year-old Forty Niner-bred colt should benefit from his outside post and the services of both jockey Cornelio Velasquez and trainer Dom Galluscio (that combination won the 6th race yesterday with Hoist). The horse is turning back after running a seven-furlong sprint and some routes. He should enjoy the shorter distance. #10 Trickey Guy with Junior Alvarado was going to try the turf for the first time today (I guess he‘ll have to wait). With the race now on the dirt, I believe that bolsters this horse‘s chances. He‘s hit the board in six of eight lifetime tries. #8 Shy Humor gets a significant jockey switch to Jose Lezcano. Also, the horse had a solid morning work a week ago in preparation for this race. The gelding should benefit from his outside post. He should be closing strongly on the grandstand side. Finally, #6 It’s Truly Ahvee retains the services of jockey Ramon Dominguez. The horse drops a notch today. He’s also turning back a half a furlong. He’s had two third-place finishes in four dirt tries.



Race Six:



My pick here is :6: Skinny Peter with Ramon Dominguez. It’s that ol’ turf-to-dirt angle. The horse could do little against better in a turf claiming race that was run about a month ago. The horse now returns to the dirt where he finds himself facing softer company. #8 Antenna with Cornelio Velasquez is in the irons for trainer Rick Dutrow looks like the main threat. The horse hasn’t shown much, lately. Yet, he has two third-place finishes in recent races at Philadelphia. Well, the horse now draws an outside starting post; that should help. This well-bred five year-old gelding did fail in his last as the favorite; however, I believe he can make amends here. Another horse in the mix is #9 Political Justice with Rosie Napravnik. Yes, the horse has not raced for about two months; the paucity of his lackluster morning works is concerning. However, there a degree of class here. The colt has faced better. He’s one twice and finished second twice in six lifetime tries. He may need a race, then again…



Race Seven:



I’m going to try for some value. My pick here is :5: Lillehammer with Ramon Dominguez. This Peter Pugh-trained filly has been away from the races since last September when she finished up the track in allowance company at Saratoga. Yet, prior to that, she broke her maiden in a mile-and-an-eighth turf race; she should certainly be able to get the distance in this turf route. On the turf, the filly has a win and a second in four tries. Why do I like this horse? Maybe it’s the switch the high percentage jock? Or, maybe it’s just that I think the horse is sitting on a big trip. I will say her morning work-tab is nuthin’ to write home about. However, I think the horse has as good a chance as any in this field. In another longshot try, I also like #11 Gypsy Preacher was third a couple weeks back in this company at Monmouth Park. The Eddie Castro-ridden, George Weaver-trained 4-year-old filly has hit the tote in three of her six turf tries. George Weaver is adding blinkers for the first time; thatcould be huge. A trainer once said: “It’s amazing what something as small as a pair of blinkers can do for a horse.” Distractions. Distractions. Distractions. Life is full of distractions. #10 Truly Devoted is another horse that fits well in this field. This well-bred filly was out of the money in her last, a route race at Keeneland. She now tries the turf again where she’s two for three, including her only win.



Race Eight:



In the Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay for fillies and mares at a mile and three-eighths on the turf for a purse of $200,000, I like :5: Aruna with Ramon Dominguez. Prior to today’s Grade 2 event, the mare had raced in four-straight Grade 1 races. She finished first once and second once in four tries. In thirteen turf races, the horse has finished first five times, second, three times and third once. The mare had a recent sharp five-furlong work; she blitzed five furlongs in 1:01.1, breezing. The horse may have needed that last Keeneland trip; she should be sharper today. Another horse that cannot be ignored is #4 Hit It Rich. The horse is ridden by J J Castellano and trained by “Shug” McGaughey. The Mr. Prospector-bred mare won her last at Gulfstream Park, the Grade 3 Orchid. The mare has won three of six turf tries. Then, there’s #3 Aqsaam with Rosie Napravnik. This lightly-raced, well-bred 4-year-old filly is a factor to be reckoned with. She finished just behind Hit It Rich in the aforementioned Grade 3 Orchid. Prior to that the horse had won three-straight. Then, there’s #8 Woodford Belle with Hall of Fame jockey Edgar Prado. In his last, the horse finished second in a Grade 2 event at Keeneland. The horse has hit the tote in seven of 12 lifetime turf tries.



Race Nine:





In an allowance turf race, non-winners of two, I like as my top pick :5: Adirondack Dancer with Cornelio Velasquez in the irons for trainer Linda Rice. In his last race, this Dixieland Band-bred colt broke his maiden in a special weight turf race over the same distance of ground. I believe the horse can come right back and make it two in a row. # 8 Unbridled Command should receive a lot of attention. He’s hit the board in all three of his turf tries, the last a third-place finish in allowance company. The horse did break his maiden at this distance two races back. Eddie Castro rides for trainer Tom Bush. #12 Ampersand is also a horse who figures to be in the mix. Corey Nakatani rides this Carson City-bred colt for Richard Violette, Jr. The horse has hit the board in two of five turf tries. He had a recent “bullet” work breezing four furlongs in :48.2. Another horse to consider is #14 HeadingToTheCity. This horse is my longshot try in the gimmicks. The gelding has hit the board in four of seven turf tries. He won at this distance three races back at Gulfstream Park. John Velasquez rides for Gary Contessa.



Race Ten:



In this maiden turf sprint, I like :5: Mr Rosenthal. This horse did run second in this company in his last race. Any slight improvement could lead to a visit to the winner’s circle. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides for trainer Greg Diprima. In his most recent work, the horse got four furlongs, breezing, in :48 seconds. The logical here is the #8 Gossip Column with Ramon Dominguez. The rider change is significant. Yet, the horse hasn’t raced in more than seven months. However, his morning work-tab has been good. He looks most ready for his return to the races. #11 Royal Blessing has had one race under his belt, that a route in which he finished off the board. He now turns back to a six furlong sprint. That should help. Cornelio Velasquez rides for Linda Rice. #7 Life Of The City was off slowly in his only race at Santa Anita last month. The horse now ships east and tries the grass. His pedigree says the horse can handle the weeds. He did seem to race greenly in his last. Possibly that race is stepping stone to improvement on the turf.