The case for Paynter

[Robert Fischer]

Paynter looks like one of the contenders as well.

Could he have more value than a horse like Union Rags or even Dullahan??

2nd start of his career, he got the 9F distance in the Santa Anita Derby. Beaten by I'll Have Another by 3.75Lengths.

Preakness day(at Pim) he ran a sharp 8.5F, winning by 5+ lengths and looking a lot like the meister Bode. His splits were pretty well measured (24.2)(24)(24)(24.3)(6.3).

[big frank]

Paynter looks like one of the contenders as well.

Could he have more value than a horse like Union Rags or even Dullahan??

2nd start of his career, he got the 9F distance in the Santa Anita Derby. Beaten by I'll Have Another by 3.75Lengths.

Preakness day(at Pim) he ran a sharp 8.5F, winning by 5+ lengths and looking a lot like the meister Bode. His splits were pretty well measured (24.2)(24)(24)(24.3)(6.3).
Paynter is my belmont horse ,,,,, Has tons of upside

[KingChas]

Let's be honest.......somebody has to finish 2nd......... ;)

[Mr. Nobody]

The Southern California clockers have been in love with this horse for weeks, touting him as a Breeders Cup winner in the fall. I have to say that I saw him in the paddock on Santa Anita Derby day, and although he was an impressive looking individual, he looked very much in the mold of a sprinter/miler - compactly built and without the length and scope of Creative Cause or I'll Have Another.

I would never have thought he'd get 12 furlongs, but if Baffert runs him there, he must think that he can.

[Robert Fischer]

The Southern California clockers have been in love with this horse for weeks, touting him as a Breeders Cup winner in the fall. I have to say that I saw him in the paddock on Santa Anita Derby day, and although he was an impressive looking individual, he looked very much in the mold of a sprinter/miler - compactly built and without the length and scope of Creative Cause or I'll Have Another.

I would never have thought he'd get 12 furlongs, but if Baffert runs him there, he must think that he can.

The distance is a(the?) big question with Paynter.
Bodemeister doesn't strike me as a huge horse himself, although he is very aesthetic and well put together.

I made a comment in an earlier Belmont thread along the lines of "there is no one in the Belmont with more early speed than I'll Have Another, that can beat I'll Have Another"...

Paynter at the very least adds a little bit of pressure on the front end, with the focus on Dullahan and Union Rags.

The pace (best guess) will be slow/moderate compared to the first two jewels of the triple crown.
If Paynter starts to edge away, I think Gutierrez will respect it to some degree and keep IHA interested.

[BlueShoe]

Usually really like these types; the fast, easy winner stepping up in class, but this time just do not care for Paynter. Going 12 furlongs against these is asking a lot from a colt that is relatively unseasoned. There was absolutely nothing behind him in the Pimlico race. Assuming he is the pacesetter, believe that IHA will inhale him around the quarter pole, and then he will struggle to hold off Dullahan and/or Union Rags late to hang onto second. Third or fourth perhaps, but do not see him first or second.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not such a big fan of such an unseasoned horse going 12F against the Derby/Preakness winner. If it was anyone other than Baffert (or some other terrific trainer of 3YOs), he'd be an automatic toss for me. But if IHA doesn't fire his "A" race things looks kind of open and at a minimum he's very talented.

[burnsy]

i think he has exacta and triple possibilities. i like that he ran within 4 lengths of IHA and came back to win for fun. in my opinion he has more upside than union rags and will be the fair price. the distance bothers me and the lack of experience so i don't know if he can win. unless I'll have another pulls a "Big Brown" there are only 3 horses i think that can beat him here....its paynter, dullahan and union rags...the original thread poster is on to something because he says the same thing.......paynter should go off 4th choice and offer some value and i just can't stomach the price union rags will probably be, seeing that he will have to turn things around to win this race or even come in second. baffert could come in second all three times with two different horses because this horse might try to get loose on the lead. i'll have another may get the target to stalk once again. baffert may be trying to win with paynter but if he sends him he could actually be doing i'll have another a favor.

[tucker6]

i think he has exacta and triple possibilities. i like that he ran within 4 lengths of IHA and came back to win for fun. in my opinion he has more upside than union rags and will be the fair price. the distance bothers me and the lack of experience so i don't know if he can win. unless I'll have another pulls a "Big Brown" there are only 3 horses i think that can beat him here....its paynter, dullahan and union rags...the original thread poster is on to something because he says the same thing.......paynter should go off 4th choice and offer some value and i just can't stomach the price union rags will probably be, seeing that he will have to turn things around to win this race or even come in second. baffert could come in second all three times with two different horses because this horse might try to get loose on the lead. i'll have another may get the target to stalk once again. baffert may be trying to win with paynter but if he sends him he could actually be doing i'll have another a favor.
you mean he's going to bend his shoe and stick a nail in his hoof??

Not aimed in response to your post, but what makes anyone think Paynter is all that? He isn't even the best horse in Baffert's barn. If he was, he'd have been at the KD instead of Bodemeister. He may be fresh and the new face, but I'm not seeing IT. Now, he may be a good bet, but I don't consider him a horse that'll beat IHA, especially if he decides to take the lead position. He ain't Bode.

I agree about Union Rags. He's plateaued since his 2 yo days. I still like Dullahan as a logical bet against IHA.

[letswastemoney]

You don't need to be a good horse to win the Belmont. Da'Tara won.

[Racey]

seems to me will be heard from .....a must use in exotics

[ten2oneormore]

Usually really like these types; the fast, easy winner stepping up in class, but this time just do not care for Paynter. Going 12 furlongs against these is asking a lot from a colt that is relatively unseasoned. There was absolutely nothing behind him in the Pimlico race. Assuming he is the pacesetter, believe that IHA will inhale him around the quarter pole, and then he will struggle to hold off Dullahan and/or Union Rags late to hang onto second. Third or fourth perhaps, but do not see him first or second.

It doesn't really matter what was behind him at Pimlico.It was just to get a race into him.The fact that Baffert threw him in the SA Derby off a 5 1/2 furlong maiden win ,where he didn't do that bad, leads me to believe Baffert thinks distance isn't an issue with him.I have no idea how this race is going to be bet besides IHA being even or less but pretty sure a lot of people looking for a alternative will land on Paynter.He and IHA have figures that separate them from the rest of the field and its not hard to see Paynter being competitive with one more forward move being he has improved with every race.

[David-LV]

I hope everyone that bets the Belmont thinks that Paynter is the horse to beat.
It will boost the prices up on the real contenders in the race.
You won't find this horse with a good pair of 10x50.

________
David-LV

[Sysonby]

seems to me will be heard from .....a must use in exotics

Re Street Life, Thoroughbred Times pedigree expert has him as one of the five in here who will like the distance

[plainolebill]

Re Street Life, Thoroughbred Times pedigree expert has him as one of the five in here who will like the distance

Who are the others?

[Sysonby]

Who are the others?

Alpha, Dullahan and Payner -- going from memory so might be off on Paynter -- and IHA

[tucker6]

It doesn't really matter what was behind him at Pimlico.It was just to get a race into him.The fact that Baffert threw him in the SA Derby off a 5 1/2 furlong maiden win ,where he didn't do that bad, leads me to believe Baffert thinks distance isn't an issue with him.I have no idea how this race is going to be bet besides IHA being even or less but pretty sure a lot of people looking for a alternative will land on Paynter.He and IHA have figures that separate them from the rest of the field and its not hard to see Paynter being competitive with one more forward move being he has improved with every race.
you believe in Baffert too much

[ten2oneormore]

you believe in Baffert too much

Actually I usually try to beat him and probably will in the Belmont.Just saying that I think Paynter will take some support.I'm pretty sure Baffert is a good trainer though and knows how to spot his horses.