Pace/Speed Figures

[cj]

Anyone ever dabble with making them for harness racing? Seems like it would be easier considering every race is the same distance, or almost every race, and the horses perform every week (note I didn't say run every week, lol, that would be bad.) Just curious, as I used to follow the game in my years in New Jersey, but haven't bet a race since I left there in 1995.

[Larry Hamilton]

I have a buggy horse db with approximately 6 moths racing in it. I keep promising myself to get on mining it but something always comes up. As has been noted numerous times, the owners of the source information do not make it easy to get the results. There is no source of comma delimited results for all open tracks. What there is: some in .pdf, some in text, one way in Canada, one in the US and the result appears to say "figure me out if you can!!!"

I checked all the touts, each for a little while and found them all wanting. Likewise, I tested all the systems I could find, again all were wanting. So if you want to play this game and you want to win, as usual, you have to do the grunt work yourself. I don't claim my efforts were scientific.

Having said all that, there are these things to consider before wagering on this game.

Jocks (drivers) could be trainer and owner. It should also be noted that the drivers sit in a little wagon. Between his legs are the flying hooves of a 1200 lb animal who may be crazed with a contraption restricting his movement. Also, the humans face is in a perfect location to wear the horse's bowel movements. Question. How smart can this person be?

They do in deed run about once a week.

They dont run full out so they seem to have far less injurites and need for rest periods.

There appears to be only 3 lanes to consider near the end of the race: the one hole, the minus one hole and the two hole. Anyone who had to go outside of that is in trouble. For most of the rest of the race, there is usually one one horse on the lead. The horses run in a single file all the way around the track till top of the stretch. What amazes me with this pace bonanza is that everyone cant pick the winner of every race....hehehehe

There is much more I would love to discuss with you either in db assimilation or actual runnings

[sq764]

CJ, I make speed figures and automated oddsline for all tracks that I play.. The speed figures work well on mile and 7/8 tracks, but I am actively working on the 1/2 mile figs, as they need some adjustment for post position..

[Tom]

Pandy offers free daily variants for the Medowlands on his website, and in the articles section, he gives out his par times.
TrackMaster has pace and speed figs, but I was generally now impressed with them
Steve Chaplin's books on "shape" uses times, but not in absolute ways-it compres segments of the race cpompared to each other and factors in the trip to come up with a measurement of pre-tretch shape and stretch shape.
Fascinating reading, but not ewasily grasped (by me anyhow).

My best results have come from using Ron Roblin's point method that doens not conder times at all- Driver, post, class, current form, consistency, and then bonus points for early speed, parked out, and stretch gain. I have had very good luck using this method at Batavia and Medowlands.

[sq764]

What drives people crazy is that when I do my oddslines and speed figs, there is no weight on the driver trainer, variant.. Nothing.. Just the horse..

He is the key to the equation.. And I think that is overlooked sometimes..

[Exactaman]

Originally posted by Tom

Steve Chaplin's books on "shape" uses times, but not in absolute ways-it compres segments of the race cpompared to each other and factors in the trip to come up with a measurement of pre-tretch shape and stretch shape.
Fascinating reading, but not ewasily grasped (by me anyhow).



Chaplin's basic idea is not that complicated. Generally, a horse will be all out to win in the stretch. Observing through chart or firsthand how well he did there can reveal his "shape," which has a direct correlation to his ability to win future races. To determine a horse's shape, the amount of energy a horse expended prior to the stretch must also be considered.

For articles expanding on these concepts from another writer with very similar ideas, head to www.kimstarr.org

[Tom]

That is a good websire..I've been downloading his articles for a year or two now.
Chaplin's concepts sound logicall, I just have trouble grasping his proceudre. I am not giving up, though...I have both his books and will keep plugging away at it.
Thanks.

[Exactaman]

well, his procedures were meant for the half-miler anyway, and all the times are 30 years out of date. one of the keys is the relative speed of fractions. if you look at two races with fractions

28 27 29 29

29 29 28 27

Chaplin will give a lot more weight to frontrunners doing well in the first race, particularly those who made a move in the second quarter. horses making big closes would not necessarily be considered in shape. the converse is true for the second race. chaplin's procedure mean you analyze the action in every race based on the relative speed of the fractions.

[trying2win]

Tom,

--I've gotten the odd, good nugget of information from reading Pandy's articles (current and archived) at the www.ustrotting.com website. He's a smart harness handicapper and writes interesting articles. I'm looking forward to reading his new harness handicapping book, whenever it comes out.

--Although the inimitable Steve M. of the Harness Handicapping Central website at www.kimstarr.org , probably knows his handicapping stuff, I don't like his arrogant, abrasive, know-it-all style of writing. I didn't find too much good handicapping material at his website, that was useful to me. Just my two cents worth.

--It was interesting that you mentioned Ron Roblin. Is he still alive? If he is, he's probably playing the harness races out at his beloved Buffalo Raceway. I once subscribed to his handicapping newletter. I didn't think it was good as Al Stanley's newsletters, but not bad. Is he still producing them? I believe in the past, that I read one of Ron Roblin's old books named "Bettors Guide to Harness Racing" (or whatever the title was). I think he has written an updated version of that book. Have you read this updated one? If so, what did you think of it?

Thanks,

Trying2win

[Tom]

Another book I have, by Aaron? something (will look it up) has a procedure where looks at the three half miles and compares them-

27 27 28 29

27 27=54
27 28=55
28 29=57

You look for moves in the faster halves... pretty interesting book. Very old-got it in the 70's
I'll pull it out and see who the author was, and giv ea little report on the method. It has a lot of class evaluation it it.
I was using it a long time ago at Batavia-back in the day.

[melman]

Kind of funny how people view certain items. Tom "has trouble grasping some of Chaplin's idea's on shape and fractions. SQ finds his book "for the beginner" with "not much useful information". This is NOT a put down on either of these two fine gentlemen. Well maybe not Tom LOL. I find the work of Chaplin very good and invert the importance for big track harness and keep the same imprtance for the half milers. Since his books were written so many years ago they of course concentrate on the half milers. Some great speed and pace figures are done by JoeG (the best I have seen on Harness racing) think Joe could make some money on those figs. I know I would sign up for them. For the really new harness player I would go to ustrotting.com and read Harness 101 plenty of basic info. For some reason harness players seem to really love to pound chalk. If you can wait and avoid them the payoff's are handsome. Get a load of this pic3 just the other day at Freehold. Leg 1 winner $10,80 Leg 2 winner $4.60 Leg 3 winner $7.80 pic 3 payoff $447.00 Sweet!!!

[Tom]

--Although the inimitable Steve M. of the Harness Handicapping Central website at www.kimstarr.org , probably knows his handicapping stuff, I don't like his arrogant, abrasive, know-it-all style of writing. .....I called him on the phone onceand he answered, really snoty, and rude and demanded to know how
i got his phone number. I told him it was on his website! what a nerd!


--It was interesting that you mentioned Ron Roblin. Is he still alive? If he is, he's probably playing the harness races out at his beloved Buffalo Raceway.

I think he has a new book or two out-saw some advertised in RPM newsletter. His book has a lot of Batavia examples in it.

[sq764]

Melman, I respect your opinion, but Chaplain's book is garbage, IMO...I can sit and hit $3.60 winners at Freehold every day, but let's get some real cash at BigM and Balmoral..

Fractional analysis is a key advantage these days, especially at the big tracks. It's one of the few advantages handicappers still have today..

[Exactaman]

the meat of chaplin's ideas is his first book, the second was just a few extras.... the first was definitely more interesting. it's all about fractional analysis, on a race basis.

[sq764]

I think the actualy computation of fractions was explained well, but without applying them properly, they mean little.

If a horse goes a :55 raw half, how do you use it? On a half mile track, that might be advantageous and could put him too far up to catch. On a mile track, unless he's a top Free For All Pacer, chances are, he's doomed.

On the other hand, if a horse goes :55 raw last half, on a half mile track, he might be too far back to get involved. But at a track like Balmoral, where he can fan out after the last turn and has tons of ground to make up the deficit, it's a huge advantage and a huge wagering tool.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I found Chaplin book and am reading it for stretch running at least! To me it looks similaar to pace handicapping right now.

[BetHorses!]

Originally posted by sq764
What drives people crazy is that when I do my oddslines and speed figs, there is no weight on the driver trainer, variant.. Nothing.. Just the horse..

He is the key to the equation.. And I think that is overlooked sometimes..




Sq764

I absolutely agree with you on this but just for Harness
You must bet according to odds and jump all over "double value horses"

The Meadowlands really gets those prices out and in my opinion its been relatively fair game lately which is good for everybody

[Tom]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Anyone ever dabble with making them for harness racing? Seems like it would be easier considering every race is the same distance, or almost every race, and the horses perform every week (note I didn't say run every week, lol, that would be bad.) Just curious, as I used to follow the game in my years in New Jersey, but haven't bet a race since I left there in 1995.

TrackMaster has speed and class and pace figs - pace figs are in the charts for each horse, and with limited usemthey look very good. Of course three cards doesn't make them the way, the truth, the light, but certiainly worth my time to check them out.
The speed figs look very good indeed, if earned at the same track.
It looks to me like Freehold figs are about 10-12 points too fast for Medowlands, but I need to see more shippers to be sure.
Having one ditance makes it better to do variants-Pandy has par times and daily variants free on his site, plus notes about hot paces and hot races - all in all, a good site.

[andicap]

Could any of these methods be used in thoroughbreds -- e.g. comparing the fastest fractions etc.?

Seems like Chaplain and all the other stuff is good old fashioned Huey Mahl pace handicapping. The more energy used up early, the less a horse has late.

IN the 70s, I used Ainslie's method for harness racing with one fix -- I gave added points for being parked without cover. It was fun and I did OK.

[Exactaman]

Originally posted by andicap
Seems like Chaplain and all the other stuff is good old fashioned Huey Mahl pace handicapping. The more energy used up early, the less a horse has late.

That's basically it, the idea being from the effort in the stretch run observed visually or inferred from the chart the horse's shape can be determined. horses in good shape are able to get into position to win races, and make the stretch run when it counts. energy expended early is energy that cannot be expended late. in other words, if a horse sat in and made no moves during the course of a race, we should expect him to go very fast in the stretch, nothing is learned here. however if a horse expends energy early and still goes fast late...

[superfecta]

Originally posted by andicap
Could any of these methods be used in thoroughbreds -- e.g. comparing the fastest fractions etc.?

Seems like Chaplain and all the other stuff is good old fashioned Huey Mahl pace handicapping. The more energy used up early, the less a horse has late.

What I did is backfit the old Phase I pace formula for the S breds using a scale of
100= 1:24.0 (time to the 3/4 pole)

100= :27.0 (time of the last quarter)

Simple subract (or add at tracks like Med)one point for each 1/5 of a second slower than the 100 top score.Easy to do,but does help find out the possible pace ability of the horse.
What I've seen is horses that are long in odds many times are not that bad,rather the crowd overbets the winning horses.This would not work well when only finding winning horses,but it does good to find horses to fill out for the exotics that actually have a chance of being there.

[Tom]

You are using 1 length = 1 fifth of a second?

If been playing around with the pace figures in TM results charts-they give a rating for each quarter. I have been looking at the 4 individuals Qs, Q1+Q2=EP, Q2+Q3 = Middle Pace, Q3+Q4 = Late pace, and Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = Total Pace.
My early results M1 are the winners are coming from top4 Total Pace, top 2 Late pace. Top EP that gaps the #2 Ep is placing and winning. My Paceline seleciton is best Total Pace rating in last three races, wtihin 21 days. But if the best was three back, and last two were same class, no obvious excuses, I will tend to throw out. No qualifers used to rate. Play the best odds horse WP or the two best odds to win, depending on my confidence on my picks. Strictly a "gut" thing.

[Exactaman]

Originally posted by superfecta
What I did is backfit the old Phase I pace formula for the S breds using a scale of
100= 1:24.0 (time to the 3/4 pole)

100= :27.0 (time of the last quarter)

Simple subract (or add at tracks like Med)one point for each 1/5 of a second slower than the 100 top score.Easy to do,but does help find out the possible pace ability of the horse.
What I've seen is horses that are long in odds many times are not that bad,rather the crowd overbets the winning horses.This would not work well when only finding winning horses,but it does good to find horses to fill out for the exotics that actually have a chance of being there.

Do you track this year round? summer seems like the time of year when they go so fast to to the 3/4 that just being able to keep up becomes important.

[superfecta]

Originally posted by Tom
You are using 1 length = 1 fifth of a second?

If been playing around with the pace figures in TM results charts-they give a rating for each quarter. I have been looking at the 4 individuals Qs, Q1+Q2=EP, Q2+Q3 = Middle Pace, Q3+Q4 = Late pace, and Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = Total Pace.
My early results M1 are the winners are coming from top4 Total Pace, top 2 Late pace. Top EP that gaps the #2 Ep is placing and winning. My Paceline seleciton is best Total Pace rating in last three races, wtihin 21 days. But if the best was three back, and last two were same class, no obvious excuses, I will tend to throw out. No qualifers used to rate. Play the best odds horse WP or the two best odds to win, depending on my confidence on my picks. Strictly a "gut" thing. Yes,same as the old PMTR rating,1length=1/5 sec.Meadowlands is the only track where its possible to exceed the scale on a constant basis(3/4 call is 1:23 and change,so it is more than 100 on the scale).There may be other tracks but I haven't played them.Now tracks like Balmoral can have a last quarter of less than 27sec,but they usually don't score a total of more than 200 when adding EP and LP.I figure,a contentious horse will be in position to make a move by the 3/4 call,so thats why I use that point for EP.
I use the last line on each horse unless its a Qualifyer,or obvious trouble.What I like to see is a horse that has a good last race,was not too badly beaten,bet down to 3-4/1 and today is 8-1 or better.These S-breds are run so much,as long as they have decent form,they really aren't that much of a longshot even tho they may have long odds.

[superfecta]

Originally posted by Exactaman
Do you track this year round? summer seems like the time of year when they go so fast to to the 3/4 that just being able to keep up becomes important. No,since I don't follow the S-breds all the time,its really just a spot method of rating the horse when I get oppotunity to bet the trotter tracks.What I usually do is see how the track is running that night ,maybe that week if i have seen any other programs.Since you have so many races at one track in one nite,its not that bad to get a feel for how they are running.Then pick your spots.

[BetHorses!]

Originally posted by Tom
You are using 1 length = 1 fifth of a second?

If been playing around with the pace figures in TM results charts-they give a rating for each quarter. I have been looking at the 4 individuals Qs, Q1+Q2=EP, Q2+Q3 = Middle Pace, Q3+Q4 = Late pace, and Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = Total Pace.



Tom,

Why not Q1+Q2+Q3 for EP?

[Tom]

Originally posted by BetHorses!
Tom,

Why not Q1+Q2+Q3 for EP?

I wanted to keep everything as much as possible in half mile increments.