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View Full Version : An update from a lurker


Versajoe
05-24-2012, 02:30 PM
I generally can't stand gambling. I used to love it, but after working in a casino during college, you would be amazed at how quickly and deeply the thrill wears off. A casino is a pretty depressing place to work.

While I couldn't stand seeing people lose hundreds of dollars playing unbeatable games, I've never had a problem with spending some money gambling as a purely recreational activity or if a profit can be made. Poker and horse racing fall into this category.

I've always played poker and have always done fairly well. I'm nowhere near turning pro, but over the long term I don't lose. At some point, however, I got incredibly bored with poker. I began to feel like a well programmed robot.

I've always enjoyed going to the track with $40 in my pocket for a fun afternoon out - win or lose. It's no more than golfing, going to dinner and the movies, or just about any other recreational activity. I have just as much fun betting a couple of dollars as I do betting much more. I'm not trying to make a living, and it's the thrill of the chase that I like.

Casinos require much bigger bankrolls. I also hate the "mindless" nature of casino gambling. I love using my brain, and horse racing is well suited for that.

With this in mind, I decided that I would make a stab at learning how handicap horses. The closest track to me (which isn't very close - about 3 hours away) is a harness track. I made some posts here way back when. I've been very silent since that time, although I still do lurk on this forum.

Here is why I have lost a lot of interest in the horses:
My biggest frustration was that when I handicap, I tend to see the favorite that everyone else sees. As we all know, betting the favorite in every race is a sure way to lose money over the long-haul. Despite reading books and studying the subject, I just don't feel confident in my ability to find the hidden gems. Books and articles teach you how to pick "winners." They want you to be able to pick the greatest percentage of winners. The real skill, in my opinion, is figuring out what attributes make a horse that does not appear to be a front runner have a legitimate chance.

And this is where I felt clueless. I didn't know where to turn to learn this skill. There is very little as it is on handicapping harness racing, and just about everything out there is quite old.

I think if I was a computer whiz I could try various things and see what works. But I am not. I am a pen and paper kind of guy.

I also fully believe that the takeout is unbeatable now that the casual gamblers are playing the slots. But that is a topic for another day...

wilderness
05-24-2012, 03:01 PM
Joe,
Bob "Pandy", has a new book out.

There are some old threads here on handicapping books, most of which are old.

The Steve Chaplin books (no longer in print) seem to be the most praised.

The way the horses themselves race has changed in recent decades with the removal of the hub rail and the advent of the different race bikes.
These days and the majority of the time, a horse must be close to the lead to compete. (i. e., short prices).

When all the speed falls apart, the longer odds horses are the only ones left standing. Some tracks are more prevalent for speed faltering, there's been some recent tremblings of this at Balmoral Park.
In addition there are certain times (whether weather, season or track bias) of the year when the speed simply does not hold up and people are less inclined these days to follow such trends.
In the old days and when the track surfaces were many varieties (today they all pretty much offer the same base construction, there was a wider difference from track-to-track.

LK's recent thread on outside posts will be one worth following.

SchagFactorToWin
05-24-2012, 03:28 PM
There's money to be made with favorites in exacta betting.

Versajoe
05-24-2012, 04:27 PM
What is the name of Pandy's new book?

headhawg
05-25-2012, 08:52 AM
Here's an Ebay link to it: Trotpicks (http://www.ebay.com/itm/TROTPICKS-Harness-Handicapping-Book-/180646108436?pt=US_Nonfiction_Book&hash=item2a0f58dd14)

Versajoe
05-25-2012, 01:27 PM
I will definitely order it. Thanks!