Thistledown: Irregular betting prompts investigation into Monday's fifth race

[gm10]

I love thinking and reading about arbitraging strategies .... I wonder which one they used here. It could have been in conjunction with betting on Betfair, that would be straightforward if the liquidity was big enough.

"Ohio racing officials have launched an investigation into a flurry of last-second bets on the fifth race at Thistledown on Monday, the officials confirmed on Tuesday morning."

http://www.drf.com/news/thistledown-irregular-betting-prompts-investigation-mondays-fifth-race

[tzipi]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=94447

[Robert Fischer]

arbing

[BetHorses!]

They could have gotten down 30k in win bets with bookmakers. They win 192 minus the bet minus the pool manip. Not sure about the bets to show though

[cj]

They could have gotten down 30k in win bets with bookmakers. They win 192 minus the bet minus the pool manip. Not sure about the bets to show though

Everyone is forgetting the most important thing though. Would they get paid? Very unlikely IMO. Rule numbers 1-10 with off shore books is NO POOL MANIPULATION!

[BetHorses!]

Everyone is forgetting the most important thing though. Would they get paid? Very unlikely IMO. Rule numbers 1-10 with off shore books is NO POOL MANIPULATION!

Agree but prob not offshore...plus offshore has tiny limits for that track. Could also be bot error. I was just speculating. Cant figure it out

[edmond1]

Thistledown was not offered on Betfair on Monday.

I love thinking and reading about arbitraging strategies .... I wonder which one they used here. It could have been in conjunction with betting on Betfair, that would be straightforward if the liquidity was big enough.

"Ohio racing officials have launched an investigation into a flurry of last-second bets on the fifth race at Thistledown on Monday, the officials confirmed on Tuesday morning."

http://www.drf.com/news/thistledown-irregular-betting-prompts-investigation-mondays-fifth-race

[cj]

Agree but prob not offshore...plus offshore has tiny limits for that track. Could also be bot error. I was just speculating. Cant figure it out

Gotcha, but i still doesn't change the getting paid part.

[BetHorses!]

Gotcha, but i still doesn't change the getting paid part.

100%

[BetHorses!]

One other thing to toss out there is....the accounts where the 5000 bets came from could have been hacked or fraudulant. Lets see where investigation leads

[BlueShoe]

This type of thing is not new, it was done long before there was such a thing as ADW's, OTB, or computers. Way back in the 1930's a famous betting coup was pulled off at the old Agua Caliente track that many turf historians are familiar with, the so called Linden Tree incident, owned by Baron Long, part owner of the track. The horse was a standout, and right at post time a group of men hired by Long hit the windows and bet every other horse in the race. Because of the small pools they were easy to manipulate. In the meantime Long and his cronies heavily bet Linden Tree with bookies all around the country. The horse won easily at an inflated price and created quite a stink. The track stewards conducted an investigation, and supposedly barred Long and kicked him out of his own racetrack. All this back in the era of paper mutuel tickets and friendly bookmakers on almost every corner.

[vikingrob]

This smacks of a betting coup involving a greyhound race in Australia a few years ago - bet all the other horses/dogs in the race through the mutuel pool at the last possible moment and bet the heavy favorite through bookmakers who don't bet back (or suspect a need to bet back or lay off the bet). The bookmakers lost about 1 million AUD that way.

I wonder if this was a case where a bookmaker thought worst case would be a loss of about $6k or so and took the action.

[trigger]

This smacks of a betting coup involving a greyhound race in Australia a few years ago - bet all the other horses/dogs in the race through the mutuel pool at the last possible moment and bet the heavy favorite through bookmakers who don't bet back (or suspect a need to bet back or lay off the bet). The bookmakers lost about 1 million AUD that way.

I wonder if this was a case where a bookmaker thought worst case would be a loss of about $6k or so and took the action.

More: http://www.drf.com/news/thistledown-betting-still-mystery

[jorcus99]

This is the thing that bothers me the most. Robotic wagering accounts for 10%
of the wagering in the US! Why is any computer allowed to automaticly tie into the tote system? Do they get a last look at the odds?

"Crawford acknowledged that the odd amounts of the win and show bets on Eye Look the Part pointed to the use of a computerized robotic wagering program. The programs, which account for at least 10 percent of the handle on U.S. horse races, analyze pool totals searching for inefficiencies, and they typically place bets in odd amounts because of the program’s ability to calculate the impact of the bets on the odds."

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Stop the robots!

[lamboguy]

This is the thing that bothers me the most. Robotic wagering accounts for 10%
of the wagering in the US! Why is any computer allowed to automaticly tie into the tote system? Do they get a last look at the odds?

"Crawford acknowledged that the odd amounts of the win and show bets on Eye Look the Part pointed to the use of a computerized robotic wagering program. The programs, which account for at least 10 percent of the handle on U.S. horse races, analyze pool totals searching for inefficiencies, and they typically place bets in odd amounts because of the program’s ability to calculate the impact of the bets on the odds."

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Stop the robots!the general manager of Tampa Bay Downs, Peter Berube, thinks that is what is going on and he never gave contracts to offshore rebate shops, Elite and RGS. there may be other places with those capabilities that i don't know about too.
since i am not set up with those capabilities, i don't bet the races that can be handicapped with an odds model because i know i am going to be an automatic loser. the races that i bet, the prices tend to go up on the horses that i bet.

[PaceAdvantage]

the general manager of Tampa Bay Downs, Peter Berube, thinks that is what is going onWhat does he think is going on?

Robotic wagers are doing nothing different than what a human can do...only smarter and faster...they don't have secret access to info you don't have.

And I don't even think they can get "quicker" tote updates...maybe they can...but I would think they too would be at the mercy of the nationwide antiquated tote system, which only updates once every 30-60 seconds.

Tell me how I'm wrong.

[Some_One]

the general manager of Tampa Bay Downs, Peter Berube, thinks that is what is going on and he never gave contracts to offshore rebate shops, Elite and RGS. there may be other places with those capabilities that i don't know about too.
since i am not set up with those capabilities, i don't bet the races that can be handicapped with an odds model because i know i am going to be an automatic loser. the races that i bet, the prices tend to go up on the horses that i bet.

Funny how he boots RGS and Elite but lets Jamie Ness step onto the grounds.

[lamboguy]

What does he think is going on?

Robotic wagers are doing nothing different than what a human can do...only smarter and faster...they don't have secret access to info you don't have.

And I don't even think they can get "quicker" tote updates...maybe they can...but I would think they too would be at the mercy of the nationwide antiquated tote system, which only updates once every 30-60 seconds.

Tell me how I'm wrong.it is very simple, they are able to measure twice and cut once, i can only measure once and then i have to cut. for example, since they have the last access into the wagering pools, the odds on a horse might look like they are 5-2 on the last flash, but they know its 3-1 or 2-1 because they know the last flash before you do and can act upon it, you can't make your move.

Berube explained it to me a few years ago, he turned down a 10% boost in his handle at tampa because he thinks that robotic wagers will do his operation more harm than good in the long run. aside from being able to view w-p-s pools it can view exacta's, doubles, and BLIND POOLS.

incidentally, Tampa is not the only track that does not deal with those 2 rebate shops, NYRA doesn't either. however there might be other places with those capabilities that exist that i don't know about. NYRA got rid of them about 7 years ago. i am pretty sure if one has the stats, you will see that trifecta's, superfecta's, pick 3's and pick 4's have a higher median priice at NYRA and Tampa and OAKLAWN than anywhere else.

i see no problem with the conditional wagers.

[PaceAdvantage]

How are they able to see the "last flash" and bet in time? The "last flash" occurs after the gates open most of the time.

I can write a program that will check for a tote update every second, and most likely be able to get the "last flash" before the gates open too...

And what are these "hidden pools" that you speak of and how do they access them and what kind of info are they getting that you and I can't get elsewhere?

[lamboguy]

Funny how he boots RGS and Elite but lets Jamie Ness step onto the grounds.
i am not sticking up for him, but he did raid his barn and test all his horses this past year and came up with nothing.

there were a ton of trainers that claim they won't go to Tampa next year because they don't think they can win races. unless Berube can find some proof of wrongdoing, i don't see how he can prevent THE MIDWEST THOROUGHBRED CORPORATION from entering horses.

[lamboguy]

How are they able to see the "last flash" and bet in time? The "last flash" occurs after the gates open most of the time.

I can write a program that will check for a tote update every second, and most likely be able to get the "last flash" before the gates open too...

And what are these "hidden pools" that you speak of and how do they access them and what kind of info are they getting that you and I can't get elsewhere?they can tell how much is bet on trifecta's and superfecta's on the top horse, if the 1 horse has $2000 worth of trifecta bets on top, they know it and you don't.

[MightBeSosa]

As far as I can tell, the only 'advantage' the bots have is speed and the ability to batch their exotic wagers all at once.

I don't see ANY evidence that they are crushing winning combos at the bell. Not at NYRA anyhow. Don't watch the other circuits as much, but doubt it's much different there .

And that's the critical point, if the winning payoffs were routinely being banged late, we might have a beef. I don't see it. Plenty of losers in there to go with the winners.

PS Someone made a HUGE wager on Atigun in the Belmont last flash. Couple of exactas got crushed enough for a million dollar score if he wins. Maybe it was Lep?

[JustRalph]

Lambo? Is that you?

I detect a completely different writing style in this thread.........

[PaceAdvantage]

they can tell how much is bet on trifecta's and superfecta's on the top horse, if the 1 horse has $2000 worth of trifecta bets on top, they know it and you don't.I know they used to show that info on track...don't know if they still do...haven't looked in ages...

[jorcus99]

it is very simple, they are able to measure twice and cut once, i can only measure once and then i have to cut. for example, since they have the last access into the wagering pools, the odds on a horse might look like they are 5-2 on the last flash, but they know its 3-1 or 2-1 because they know the last flash before you do and can act upon it, you can't make your move.

Berube explained it to me a few years ago, he turned down a 10% boost in his handle at tampa because he thinks that robotic wagers will do his operation more harm than good in the long run. aside from being able to view w-p-s pools it can view exacta's, doubles, and BLIND POOLS.

incidentally, Tampa is not the only track that does not deal with those 2 rebate shops, NYRA doesn't either. however there might be other places with those capabilities that exist that i don't know about. NYRA got rid of them about 7 years ago. i am pretty sure if one has the stats, you will see that trifecta's, superfecta's, pick 3's and pick 4's have a higher median priice at NYRA and Tampa and OAKLAWN than anywhere else.

i see no problem with the conditional wagers.


I agree 100%, You can see it happening in certain tracks, A few years ago I quit playing Woodbine because I noticed how quick the late pools were shifting. It's not like the robots are all on the winner it's just that they squashing overlays. I played NYRA most of the time last year and did not notice the issue as much. Keeneland is another track where I feel the robots are quashing overlays. My feeling is if you want to bet via computer you have to enter your bets manual like we all do. Conditional wagers I am ok with because you are a little bit blind to the fact of how big the pool is and what the last tick of the tote will be. Quashing exotic overlays is very negative for the crowd in general.

[lamboguy]

I agree 100%, You can see it happening in certain tracks, A few years ago I quit playing Woodbine because I noticed how quick the late pools were shifting. It's not like the robots are all on the winner it's just that they squashing overlays. I played NYRA most of the time last year and did not notice the issue as much. Keeneland is another track where I feel the robots are quashing overlays. My feeling is if you want to bet via computer you have to enter your bets manual like we all do. Conditional wagers I am ok with because you are a little bit blind to the fact of how big the pool is and what the last tick of the tote will be. Quashing exotic overlays is very negative for the crowd in general.
i am positive that NYRA and TAMPA don't give their signals to ELITE or RGS. i
am not about OAKLAWN, i don't think they give their signal's to them either.

everyone always likes to criticize NYRA, in this case i have to praise them.

harness tricks are a complete joke, there is no living human that can overcome what goes on in that game and that is strictly because of the bell involved. i know of people that can beat that game with a minus 1/2 second BEFORE the bell.

my suggestion to you is if you are a good handicapper and like to play the blind pools, stay with those tracks where you are going to have a legit shot every time you make a wager.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

http://www.ig.ny.gov/pdfs/Report%20to%20the%20Governor%20on%20the%20Integrit y%20of%20Those%20Seeking%20to%20Operate%20the%20Ra cetracks%20at%20Aqueduct,%20Belmont%20Park%20and%2 0Saratoga.pdf

The above link is to a report from a few years back into the integrity of parties bidding to run New York racing. If you read pages 13 to 27 and pages 129 following about Capital Play you will see that New York cut off Capital Play from betting on New York racing (10 rebate shops were cut off for various reasons). The main reason given for cutting off Capital Play was "batch betting" which is what jorcus99 is referring to. I agree with jorcus99 that this "batch betting" advantage is unfair for those who don't have access to the feature as there is no way they can scan the pools and fill out the tickets in the same time the batch bettors can. In any case there are at least some regulators out there who can see that batch betting is unfair and have stopped it in the past

There is also the risk of betting after the bell which is mentioned in this report

[PaceAdvantage]

Should it also be deemed unfair when someone has a handicapping tool far superior to anyone else's out there? Because that's kind of what you are saying.

[Tom]

No, handicapping and wagering are two separate activities. Betting into the pools should be limited. No way the majority of people playing the races can ever hope to compete with robots that enter the pools and analyze the data and make multiple last second bets based on that. If you think it is fair for that kind of wagering to exist, then you can pretty much say goodbye to the game. Eventually, you will have 6 or 7 robots fighting it out. Robot betting will decrease the number of players, not increase it, as we all talk about being essential in the long run.

[lamboguy]

if you count cards in casino's and win,the casino bars you. if you can beat a slot machine, the casino bars you. if you can beat a roulette wheel the casino bars you. if you can beat a baccarat shoe, the casino bars you. if you can beat keno, the law takes you out in handcuffs. in my days i have seen all these instances.

in horse racing, batch bettor's can have an edge over people that are not batch bettor's. it doesn't matter what and why that they do, they have edges over people that don't have access to batch bet.

Tampa and NYRA decided that they would rather have less handle than to give away these edges.

[Robert Goren]

Unfortunately it is here to stay. The same thing is happening in the stock market. Those with access can make money just because they have access to information the average guy doesn't have. Is it fair? Probably not, but it isn't go change.

[jorcus99]

http://www.ig.ny.gov/pdfs/Report%20to%20the%20Governor%20on%20the%20Integrit y%20of%20Those%20Seeking%20to%20Operate%20the%20Ra cetracks%20at%20Aqueduct,%20Belmont%20Park%20and%2 0Saratoga.pdf

The above link is to a report from a few years back into the integrity of parties bidding to run New York racing. If you read pages 13 to 27 and pages 129 following about Capital Play you will see that New York cut off Capital Play from betting on New York racing (10 rebate shops were cut off for various reasons). The main reason given for cutting off Capital Play was "batch betting" which is what jorcus99 is referring to. I agree with jorcus99 that this "batch betting" advantage is unfair for those who don't have access to the feature as there is no way they can scan the pools and fill out the tickets in the same time the batch bettors can. In any case there are at least some regulators out there who can see that batch betting is unfair and have stopped it in the past

There is also the risk of betting after the bell which is mentioned in this report

Thanks for the link. I was aware of the Uvari group issues and NYRA may have cut off the bad guys due to it's application renewal. Whatever the reason I am thankful that there is pressure to keep batch betting from taking place.

[jorcus99]

Should it also be deemed unfair when someone has a handicapping tool far superior to anyone else's out there? Because that's kind of what you are saying.

Not at all. But unless I have access to tie my computer into the tote system and batch wager it is unfair. And do I really want the game to go in that direction? No way. I still like to handicap and pick horses. I do want some predictability on the price I will be getting if I win.

[PaceAdvantage]

Not at all. But unless I have access to tie my computer into the tote system and batch wager it is unfair. And do I really want the game to go in that direction? No way. I still like to handicap and pick horses. I do want some predictability on the price I will be getting if I win.You make no sense. You don't have access to the most successful handicapping software in the world either...isn't that unfair?

Look, these robotic wagering programs are to manual BETTING what HANDICAPPING/DATABASE SOFTWARE was to PAPER AND PENCIL handicapping.

It applied computer SPEED and PROCESSING POWER to something that had formerly been done BY HAND. Making it quicker and more efficient and able to handle LOTS MORE TASKS.

It's the same thing in both endeavors...handicapping and wagering. Yet some of you want to ban one and not the other. You make little sense when looked at from that perspective.

You're tied directly into the tote too whenever you log into an ADW and place bets. It's just that you're slower and dumber than the robotic wagering programs (at least when it comes to placing wagers), which are also tied directly to the tote, just like your ADW.

It's all about speed and processing power. You as a human aren't as fast or as smart. But it doesn't make what they are doing "unfair." They just have an edge that you don't. Just like the guy using the best handicapping software in the world has an edge that you don't...

[jorcus99]

You make no sense. You don't have access to the most successful handicapping software in the world either...isn't that unfair?

Look, these robotic wagering programs are to manual BETTING what HANDICAPPING/DATABASE SOFTWARE was to PAPER AND PENCIL handicapping.

It applied computer SPEED and PROCESSING POWER to something that had formerly been done BY HAND. Making it quicker and more efficient and able to handle LOTS MORE TASKS.

It's the same thing in both endeavors...handicapping and wagering. Yet some of you want to ban one and not the other. You make little sense when looked at from that perspective.

You're tied directly into the tote too whenever you log into an ADW and place bets. It's just that you're slower and dumber than the robotic wagering programs (at least when it comes to placing wagers), which are also tied directly to the tote, just like your ADW.

It's all about speed and processing power. You as a human aren't as fast or as smart. But it doesn't make what they are doing "unfair." They just have an edge that you don't. Just like the guy using the best handicapping software in the world has an edge that you don't...

All the best handicapping software in the world does is help you analyze a race. It dosen't bother me in the least that there are sophisticated selection programs. Some people pay a lot of money for sheets some pay a lot for workout reports, backstretch people have private knowledge of a horses health. No horseplayer has access to all tools and knowledge.

We as horseplayers all have an interest in tote security and a reasonable ability to predict prices in visable pools. Would you want to wager on a horse when you have no idea what the odds will be? That is what it is coming to at some tracks. This is not just happening at small tracks it's happening at certain big tracks. It's a hidden takeout and can and should stopped. I just can't play tracks where I have a longshot and win or lose it's odds routinely get chopped in half in the last flash.

[PaceAdvantage]

Then WE need to demand the tote system be UPGRADED...REAL TIME UPDATES, like the financial markets...tick by tick price updates...

That's the REAL problem here...not some robotic wagering program...

[Helles]

Then WE need to demand the tote system be UPGRADED...REAL TIME UPDATES, like the financial markets...tick by tick price updates...

That's the REAL problem here...not some robotic wagering program...

Hear, hear!

[Tom]

I'm sure the industry has people standing by just waiting to listen to their customers. :rolleyes:

Most have no clue who their customers are.
It would be easier to find anther game than to fix this one.

[alydar]

Then WE need to demand the tote system be UPGRADED...REAL TIME UPDATES, like the financial markets...tick by tick price updates...

That's the REAL problem here...not some robotic wagering program...

I agree completely. The only reson we have not seen progress on this issue is money. No one wants to pay for it. The tote companies are limping along and will not pay, as they cannot pass the costs on. The industry as a whole has to find a way to fund it, and up to now, that has not happened.

[MightBeSosa]

The issue is PRIVILEGED access, not who is smarter or faster. Many are upset at what's gone on for the last 10 years on Wall St as well.

I'm not aware of a universal API that any programmer could access for tote access. If that is only available to SPECIAL INTERESTS then I deem it unfair.

There's no reason for there not to be a public API, I know betfair promotes one.

There's nothing magical or brilliant about writing a program that can take your handicapping opinion and sending all relevant bets when the odds are known near the end of betting.