Tdn Monday - 2/5 Pays 12.80

[BMustang]

In Thistledown's 5th Race Monday I saw a phenomena I've never seen before in my 45 years at the track.

The 7 horse is bet to 2/5 all through the pre-race betting and while the gate is being loaded. During the course of the race, this overwhelming favorite goes to 5-1. He wins by over 10 lengths and pays 12.80 to win and $2.10 to place.

The exacta with the second choice pays $6.20.

When they put the $12.80 up we all thought they had made a mistake and that the win payoff should have been $2.80, not $12.80, but after verifying it with the mutual clerks, the horse did indeed pay $12.80 to win. The ensuing Pick-3 of $8.20, $12.80, and $4.20 returned $26.20 for $2 (in line with the middle horse being 2/5.)

In the 8th and final race of the day a horse that had been solid at 8/5 and 2-1, wins and pays 9/2 = $11.60 with the post-time favorite running second and the perfecta paying $14.20 for $2.

Any thoughts, or explanations????

[tzipi]

My guess is the late "gate money" by a person was poorly bet. Plus, I don't think it takes much there to change odds based on handle but I could be wrong.

[mikeb]

twice in one nite...hmmm..hanky panky at the windows

[pandy]

That's bizarre. The horse won by 16 lengths and all of the other 6 horses in the race were 9-2, so almost every horse in the race had the same odds. The winner actually was the highest odds in the race.

[Jeff P]

HANA Blog - Monday 05-21-2012 Thistledown R5:
http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2012/05/monday-05-21-2012-tdn-r5.html

I was watching the betting pools at TDN 5. As the race started there was around $13k in the win pool most of which was bet on #7 who was 1-5.

Part way through the race, the odds changed tremendously with 30-1 and 50-1 shots dropping to 9-2 and the 1-5 favorite jumping to 5-1.

Here is a snapshot of the final pools:

----- ---- ------ -- ----- -- ----- --
Horse Odds WIN % PLACE % SHOW %
----- ---- ------ -- ----- -- ----- --
#1 9/2 15,449 14 133 3 2,089 11
#2 9/2 15,357 14 184 5 2,093 11
#3 9/2 15,227 14 43 1 2,074 11
#4 4 15,987 15 530 14 2,341 12
#5 9/2 15,342 14 234 6 2,109 11
#6 9/2 15,478 14 291 7 2,198 12
#7 5 13,431 12 2,243 61 5,164 28
-----------------------------------------

As you can infer from the totals, very late in the wagering, some robotic wagering program must have mistakenly bet $15k to win and $2k to show on all horses except the #7.


-jp

.

[Maximillion]

Guessing there might be days at Thistledown where the total handle wont be more than this one race.Very strange.

[castaway01]

That's very strange, "I've never seen that before" strange. Sure, we've seen crazy bets get cancelled and the odds swing wildly, but the way the betting went here, that's a new one. I think Jeff had the only logical explanation---if only those types of mistakes were made every day and our 2-5 shots went off 5-1....we'd all be rich. :)

[Red Knave]

Following is the Interval odds as tracked by HPIBet. At 1 minute to post the odds on the #7 were 13-1.
This has to be a whale computer glitch.


# M/L 20 17 15 12 10 7 5 4 3 2 1 0 Final
1 12 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 6 6 8 4 9/2
2 4 6 7 9 9 9 10 11 13 15 21 4 9/2
3 10 19 9 11 12 13 17 19 23 23 30 4 9/2
4 9/2 25 30 25 16 15 7 4 5 7/2 4 4 4
5 5 7 7 7 6 7 9 8 9 10 15 4 9/2
6 7/2 12 15 18 16 18 22 18 13 10 9 4 9/2
7 2 1/2 2/5 1/5 2/5 2/5 2/5 1/2 1/2 3/5 2/5 13 5
Win Pool:$209 $248 $290 $309 $333 $463 $515 $613 $769 $1,275 $81,425 $109,561

[Maximillion]

Following is the Interval odds as tracked by HPIBet. At 1 minute to post the odds on the #7 were 13-1.
This has to be a whale computer glitch.


# M/L 20 17 15 12 10 7 5 4 3 2 1 0 Final
1 12 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 6 6 8 4 9/2
2 4 6 7 9 9 9 10 11 13 15 21 4 9/2
3 10 19 9 11 12 13 17 19 23 23 30 4 9/2
4 9/2 25 30 25 16 15 7 4 5 7/2 4 4 4
5 5 7 7 7 6 7 9 8 9 10 15 4 9/2
6 7/2 12 15 18 16 18 22 18 13 10 9 4 9/2
7 2 1/2 2/5 1/5 2/5 2/5 2/5 1/2 1/2 3/5 2/5 13 5
Win Pool:$209 $248 $290 $309 $333 $463 $515 $613 $769 $1,275 $81,425 $109,561



Almost a 6 figure glitch:)

[Rapid Grey]

Some bettors will make a large wager early in pools to show their pick as a prohibitive favorite, especially at smaller circuit tracks, theory being that the public will back off a short price play and the favorite's price will float up through the course of wagering.

[tzipi]

Some bettors will make a large wager early in pools to show their pick as a prohibitive favorite, especially at smaller circuit tracks, theory being that the public will back off a short price play and the favorite's price will float up through the course of wagering.


That's what I thought. He was just the heavy favorite with very little money in the pool. The large bets came in late.

[castaway01]

That's what I thought. He was just the heavy favorite with very little money in the pool. The large bets came in late.

But if you looked at the pools as posted by Jeff or the odds ranges posted here as well, that's too simple to explain what happened in this case. Nearly identical bets---$15,000 bets, not $100---were posted on all of the other horses in the field, to the point where the original favorite went from 1-2 to 13-1 in a flash and the others all dropped to 4-1. If you can tell me when you've ever seen that before in the history of racing, please list the race and date. There WAS one big early bet, but the ridiculously big late bets on the rest of the field, including $90K in win wagers that lost---were the extremely unique part.

[menifee]

Investigation launched:

http://www.drf.com/news/thistledown-irregular-betting-prompts-investigation-mondays-fifth-race

[tzipi]

But if you looked at the pools as posted by Jeff or the odds ranges posted here as well, that's too simple to explain what happened in this case. Nearly identical bets---$15,000 bets, not $100---were posted on all of the other horses in the field, to the point where the original favorite went from 1-2 to 13-1 in a flash and the others all dropped to 4-1. If you can tell me when you've ever seen that before in the history of racing, please list the race and date. There WAS one big early bet, but the ridiculously big late bets on the rest of the field, including $90K in win wagers that lost---were the extremely unique part.

You're right. Didn't see that looking at it quickly. Strange indeed.

[tzipi]

Investigation launched:

http://www.drf.com/news/thistledown-irregular-betting-prompts-investigation-mondays-fifth-race

In the video caller says, "Inquiry sign has been posted looking into the stretch run of race 5". He should said, the Inquiry sign has been posted looking into the shady betting on race 5. ;)

[cj]

Sounds like pool manipulation to me. Probably a large amount bet offshore on the winner or something.

[tzipi]

If it's a profitable tactic though, I wonder why we haven't seeing more of this?

[Marlin]

If it's a profitable tactic though, I wonder why we haven't seeing more of this?It's probably difficult to get paid. And that might be the least of your problems if bet through "rough" people.

[speed]

Sounds like pool manipulation to me. Probably a large amount bet offshore on the winner or something.
Think about it, there is zero chance anybody is taking $20,000 win bets at Thisledowns or any small time track and holding the action.

[cj]

Think about it, there is zero chance anybody is taking $20,000 win bets at Thisledowns or any small time track and holding the action.

Of course nobody is taking 20,000. But how about a whole bunch of off shore books taking $100 or $200. There are hundreds of books out there. I'm sure some of them talk, but who would talk about a couple $200 bets at Tdn on a 1 to 5 shot. Now, after the race, that is a different story. There is no chance that anybody trying this will ever get paid, and they won't have an account any longer either.

Clearly something weird happened. I don't know what it was of course, but the above is possible for sure.

[Tread]

Think about it, there is zero chance anybody is taking $20,000 win bets at Thisledowns or any small time track and holding the action.

But I bet there are at least 20 offshore books who will each take 1,000 bets. Anyone who thinks this was not done on purpose is INCREDIBLY naive.

[speed]

Of course nobody is taking 20,000. But how about a whole bunch of off shore books taking $100 or $200. There are hundreds of books out there. I'm sure some of them talk, but who would talk about a couple $200 bets at Tdn on a 1 to 5 shot. Now, after the race, that is a different story. There is no chance that anybody trying this will ever get paid, and they won't have an account any longer either.

Clearly something weird happened. I don't know what it was of course, but the above is possible for sure.
Agreed

[cj]

But I bet there are at least 20 offshore books who will each take 1,000 bets. Anyone who thinks this was not done on purpose is INCREDIBLY naive.

You won't find one book that will take $1,000 on a Thistledown race, let alone 20.

[speed]

You won't find one book that will take $1,000 on a Thistledown race, let alone 20.
Was typing same but was laughing so hard i closed my browser on accident and lost the post. :) So much for multi tasking

[Maximillion]

Strange thing....... if the "goal" was to make each horse 5-1(which was nearly accomplished) the 15k win bet on any horse winning? 90k

[Tread]

You won't find one book that will take $1,000 on a Thistledown race, let alone 20.

You made the same point I was trying to make above, perhaps $1000 is too big a number, but even with payouts capped at 5k for a minor track, if you have enough determination to make it work, it is there for the taking.

And luckily for them, it seems the vast majority of the betting public appear to be simpletons who dismiss this as an accident or computer error.

[BombsAway Bob]

You made the same point I was trying to make above, perhaps $1000 is too big a number, but even with payouts capped at 5k for a minor track, if you have enough determination to make it work, it is there for the taking.

And luckily for them, it seems the vast majority of the betting public appear to be simpletons who dismiss this as an accident or computer error.

i'm guessing automated Computer Program error, maybe where Big Fave was supposed to trigger $200.00 Win bets
but the decimal didn't register. Note Show pool triggered $2,000.00 show bets on entire field v. fave.
perhaps they were intended to be $20.00 automated show bets.

[BuddyOscar]

Similar things have been going on at several greyhound tracks for the past year. Typically only several hundred bet on each dog creating the 9/2 odds on almost every dog. However I witnessed one recently where they threw over 23,000 total into one race win pool back on April 2. Same type of deal where a "sure thing" is driven up in price from 1/2 or less to 5-1 or more.

[Shemp Howard]

Sounds like the Licavoli mob is still operating at TND.

[Some_One]

Any chance this is some sort of money launder?

[davew]

it has to be someone killing racebooks that pay at track odds.

I remember years ago in Nevada they even had a house quinella in every race which was win times half place of 2nd horse.

[lamboguy]

it has to be someone killing racebooks that pay at track odds.

I remember years ago in Nevada they even had a house quinella in every race which was win times half place of 2nd horse.they don't book any horses in nevada these days, its all pari-mutuel.

in case i am wrong and they do have places that still book horses and house q's please let me know, i will be there in 6 hours.

[affirmedny]

they don't book any horses in nevada these days, its all pari-mutuel.

in case i am wrong and they do have places that still book horses and house q's please let me know, i will be there in 6 hours.

Arizona Charlie's Decatur
Race & SportsBook
740 S. Decatur Blvd.
Las Vegas, NV 89107
(702) 258-5200

Daily lines (straight bets, money lines and totals), parlays, teasers, match-ups, futures, propositions on major events, weekly odds for golf, NASCAR and tennis, major boxing matches, pari-mutuel and non-pari-mutuel racing.