Impeccability

[jerry-g]

I probably need a new pair of glasses as I bet on a raccoon to win this week. Seriously, while I was looking at a race that was looking back at me, I discovered my mistakes. I have been making a lot lately. I try to see where my problem is but seem to repeat them again. It could be I'm not taking enough time to figure things out. The Preakness for example. IHA had all the plus signs not Bodemeister. Yet I ignored my own plan to opt for second best. It did not cost anything as the value was not there and I did not bet. The +'s for IHA were: Earned two times more dollars than did Bode. Had two six furlong works going into the Ky Derb and Bode did not. Had CR of 126, best of all entrants in the field. Bodemeister had 125. As Ben Franklin would say, you go with the one with the most positives. Is it possible to become impeccable and make fewer misteaks? I wonder.

[Robert Fischer]

reviewing your plays is important.

It can give you the power of seeing your maneuvers from a non biased outsider's perspective.

Some of the errors that bother me the most are plays that I failed to see and/or passed on.

[turninforhome10]

I go back to the basics.
http://www.frandsen.com/newsletters/july01brs.htm. See do's and dont's
I equate it to riding a bike. We all can do it but sometimes we get moving to fast or erratic that we crash. I go back to the Do's and dont's and follow the rules and ride slow for a while. When I get my speed back up, then I go back to exotics. This is what works for me, and I force myself to do this when I get sloppy. Just my 2 cents

[jerry-g]

I go back to the basics.
http://www.frandsen.com/newsletters/july01brs.htm. See do's and dont's
I equate it to riding a bike. We all can do it but sometimes we get moving to fast or erratic that we crash. I go back to the Do's and dont's and follow the rules and ride slow for a while. When I get my speed back up, then I go back to exotics. This is what works for me, and I force myself to do this when I get sloppy. Just my 2 cents

Thanks for this link. I thought I had read all the articles by Bris but this one I do not recall. It is perhaps the most important one of all. I believe it will help me tremendously.

[jerry-g]

reviewing your plays is important.

It can give you the power of seeing your maneuvers from a non biased outsider's perspective.

Some of the errors that bother me the most are plays that I failed to see and/or passed on.

Thank-you! I am also going to watch the race replay cause I believe I can learn more by seeing it again and not focusing on the horse I bet on and seeing how the race unfolded. It will give me insight into next out for all those horses and be ahead of the game next time. In fact, I think I will create a new folder and try and capture some of the videos for later review at will. I'm not sure if they will allow me to do that or not.

[Some_One]

This is why a system for selecting your contenders is very important, the most subjectivity you have, the longer it will take to handicap a race, the more doubt you'll have, the tough the betting decision is.

[BeatTheChalk]

" I'm Lt. Columbo ** From ** the Police "

I still crack up whenever I think about Falk. Made us all laugh
for many years.........
oh __ one ___ more ___ thing ...Sir .....

[jerry-g]

" I'm Lt. Columbo ** From ** the Police "

I still crack up whenever I think about Falk. Made us all laugh
for many years.........
oh __ one ___ more ___ thing ...Sir .....

Yea...me too. I wonder what kind of handicapper he would have been? I can see him in the paddock, looking into feed bags, watching medication being administered and checking the bits on each horse. "Just one more thing sir...do you think your horse is going to win today?"

[thaskalos]

I probably need a new pair of glasses as I bet on a raccoon to win this week. Seriously, while I was looking at a race that was looking back at me, I discovered my mistakes. I have been making a lot lately. I try to see where my problem is but seem to repeat them again. It could be I'm not taking enough time to figure things out. The Preakness for example. IHA had all the plus signs not Bodemeister. Yet I ignored my own plan to opt for second best. It did not cost anything as the value was not there and I did not bet. The +'s for IHA were: Earned two times more dollars than did Bode. Had two six furlong works going into the Ky Derb and Bode did not. Had CR of 126, best of all entrants in the field. Bodemeister had 125. As Ben Franklin would say, you go with the one with the most positives. Is it possible to become impeccable and make fewer misteaks? I wonder.

I am reminded of something that Tom Ainslie wrote 40 years ago:

"Successful horseplaying is a solitary activity. The more social it gets, the less profitable it becomes."

For years, I considered horseplaying to be little more than a social gathering among friends.

Three friends and I would sit at a table at the track or our local OTB, eating, comparing notes, and joking around.

Now, whether at home or the OTB, I sit all by myself, without any distractions of any kind. I don't even eat until the day's action is over.

I don't know how others do it, but I can't win unless I give 100% of my attention to this game.

It's not enough to KNOW how to play. You must also play to the best of your ability. Always!

[Turkoman]

I probably need a new pair of glasses as I bet on a raccoon to win this week. Seriously, while I was looking at a race that was looking back at me, I discovered my mistakes. I have been making a lot lately. I try to see where my problem is but seem to repeat them again. It could be I'm not taking enough time to figure things out. The Preakness for example. IHA had all the plus signs not Bodemeister. Yet I ignored my own plan to opt for second best. It did not cost anything as the value was not there and I did not bet. The +'s for IHA were: Earned two times more dollars than did Bode. Had two six furlong works going into the Ky Derb and Bode did not. Had CR of 126, best of all entrants in the field. Bodemeister had 125. As Ben Franklin would say, you go with the one with the most positives. Is it possible to become impeccable and make fewer misteaks? I wonder.

Just curious. Have you been keeping any records at all? This process can really help you keep track of what works for you, depending on your personal handicapping style.

[jerry-g]

Just curious. Have you been keeping any records at all? This process can really help you keep track of what works for you, depending on your personal handicapping style.

Unfortunately, my record keeping was not too good. I kept notes written on paper and after awhile, I had to discard them because I could not find what I was looking for in the pile. I am going to start keeping them on the computer in folders with a file structure that will help me to find the information.



All will be kept in this folder and the sub-folders will relate to some of the following:



Articles (I have kept the Bris articles on my computer)

Book Notes (from books I have read that make sense to me)

Money management notes

Winners Notes (by class of race. I have found they share common things)

Race Replay Notes (attention to how they ran on the first turn and in the stretch)

Results Charts with Bris PP by date and class of race.

Win or lose notes for each class of race played so I can figure out where my expertise lays.



Of course, any of these can have sub-folders. It now appears to me the record keeping could just be the most important factor in handicapping. From my previous notes I found that horses that win share some of the following:



They have been successful at today’s class and racing at or near the distance. Horses with good six furlong works signal trainer intent to win today. Last race was same or higher than today’s race. (I know horses win and step up in class and win again, but this is a weak area for me). It seems to depend on what the bunch looks like they are stepping up in to and how well they are performing at this class. Horses that make huge ,moves from the 2nd call to finish of five to seven lengths in any of its last three races are dangerous contenders in today’s race. Horses that finish 2nd by a nose, head, neck should be looked at as if they won the race.



Thanks for your reply and helpful information.

[turninforhome10]

Here is what not to do;
http://www.professionalgambler.com/topten.html

[jerry-g]

I hope everyone is enjoying this thread as much as I do but I have a special interest in it having started it out.

It has enabled me to land on sites on the WWW as if I were in a hot air balloon and suddenly sat down on a handicappers paradise of information. I am now linked to a place where I can download, for free, all the racing replays to my hearts delight, including stakes races. The reason I like downloading to my own computer is so I can view them on my own time and when I feel my best so I can get the most out of them. I also found an article that explains how to watch a race replay and lots others on beginning hadicapping on through the entire process. I especially liked the article on class and pace.

Here is a quote about watching race replays.

After some practice you will find yourself using your race-watching skills automatically, making astute observations that others will miss. Believe me, no other racetrack skill will
ever be more useful.
- Steve Davidowitz

Further, I did not know that there were colors that a majority of tracks use for the saddle cloths by number. So if you can see the color, which I cannot, you will know the number of the horse.

I enjoy watching replays of the races I have won to gain insight into next time out. One race at Keeneland I had bet the 2 horse to win. In the early part of the race he was next to last and at the stretch he was still next to last. So I gave up on him and decided it was too late for him to fire now. So I began watching my 4 horse I had bet to come in second and he was out in front by several lengths. So I decided to watch im win and then I saw a horse moving out of the bunch in back and I moved closer to my computer screen. I said, "Is that the 2? Well is it? By damn I think it is!" I put my nose on the screen in disbelief and it was the 2 and he looked like he was going to pass the 4. He did so and even left him behind. I made enough to start watching TV in high definition big screen. I thank the horses when I turn it on.

For now, because of my loosing streak, I am getting back to basics and playing only on paper till I get right again. It may be something simple like me suffering from a brain infart. But like MacArthur, I shall return again to the winners circle.

[Turkoman]

[QUOTE=jerry-g]Unfortunately, my record keeping was not too good. I kept notes written on paper and after awhile, I had to discard them because I could not find what I was looking for in the pile.

The record-keeping itself will help you with that. A lot of times it will lead you to surprising discoveries.

[pondman]

. As Ben Franklin would say, you go with the one with the most positives. Is it possible to become impeccable and make fewer misteaks? I wonder.

In horse racing you go with a horse when it will return value over the long run. I believe you did the optimal-- you passed-- saving the wallet for better things.
Mistake? I'd be careful when redefining your process after one triple crown race. Nothing wrong with believing Bode had a shot. However taking a 2-1 or 3-1 shot in horse racing is something that probably does more damage to most peoples' wallets.

I don't want to define other people goals. But it should NOT be about picking winners. The focus should be on making money. And doing it without needing to jump out a window.

[Turkoman]

However taking a 2-1 or 3-1 shot in horse racing is something that probably does more damage to most peoples' wallets.

Pondman, I don't think everyone will agree with you on that one. There are 3-1 horses that deserve to have odds of 8-5 or 9-5. Wouldn't a horse like that be a good bet with such a nice edge?

[pondman]

[I]

Pondman, I don't think everyone will agree with you on that one. There are 3-1 horses that deserve to have odds of 8-5 or 9-5. Wouldn't a horse like that be a good bet with such a nice edge?

If you can value a horse at 9-5 then you'd want to take a 3-1 overtime. But to do this successfully you need to be consistent, with a unit bet. I think it's easier on a persons mental health, if you pass until you get a few more points in value, because you are still talking about losing 60% of the time on a valuation of 9-5. The reward isn't enough for me. Through out the year in the world of racing you can find a horse with a 9-5 valuation but paying +10-1. I'd rather not beat myself up on these 3-1 shots and have a bank for something a lot longer. I'd rather lose 60% of the time on 10-1 shots than on 3-1 shots. The math is there to play 3-1 shots, but it's going to take a lot out of a person losing 6 in a row and them cashing for $8. That's rough.

[Turkoman]

If you can value a horse at 9-5 then you'd want to take a 3-1 overtime. But to do this successfully you need to be consistent, with a unit bet. I think it's easier on a persons mental health, if you pass until you get a few more points in value, because you are still talking about losing 60% of the time on a valuation of 9-5. The reward isn't enough for me. Through out the year in the world of racing you can find a horse with a 9-5 valuation but paying +10-1. I'd rather not beat myself up on these 3-1 shots and have a bank for something a lot longer. I'd rather lose 60% of the time on 10-1 shots than on 3-1 shots. The math is there to play 3-1 shots, but it's going to take a lot out of a person losing 6 in a row and them cashing for $8. That's rough.

Ok, I understand what you're trying to say, but it's strictly your point of view. The reality is something else. If a 3-1 horse should actually be 9-5, then that's a 67% edge right there. I'm not trying to say this happens all the time. It's just an example. Also, a lot of discipline is required to be successful with plays like this one.

[rubicon55]

Ok, I understand what you're trying to say, but it's strictly your point of view. The reality is something else. If a 3-1 horse should actually be 9-5, then that's a 67% edge right there. I'm not trying to say this happens all the time. It's just an example. Also, a lot of discipline is required to be successful with plays like this one.

I have to agree with your analysis in finding the value. A 9-5 theortically has a much better chance of winning than 10-1 over the long haul. I see nothing wrong in going with a high percentage win, but only if it is a value overlaid odds where the horse dominates its competition. I say find the value and exploit it and not be overly concerned about the "big payoff".