Can Optimizer win the Belmont?

[letswastemoney]

I'm a fan of speed and pace figure handicapping...but as we all know, speed figures have less importance at 12 furlongs in the Belmont Stakes because none of them have run that far, so we don't know their ability at the distance.

Can Optimizer plod his way to victory? Of the 3 TC races, the Belmont is the closest to a "turf style" race, and Optimizer should benefit from the distance.

[Greyfox]

I'm a fan of speed and pace figure handicapping...but as we all know, speed figures have less importance at 12 furlongs in the Belmont Stakes because none of them have run that far, so we don't know their ability at the distance.

Can Optimizer plod his way to victory? Of the 3 TC races, the Belmont is the closest to a "turf style" race, and Optimizer should benefit from the distance.

Optimizer does not figure on pace or speed.
I actually placed a small win bet on Optimizer at long odds in the Preakness off a rather impressive finish that this colt had against Secret Circle in the Rebel Stakes.
I placed that bet knowing that my own figures said "No way." Also, I don't know of any major handicapper or even poster on this message board who even mentioned this colt as having a chance.
Letswastemoney you are to my knowledge the first one on this site to even breath his name.
Numberwise this horse is a plodder, comparatively speaking in relation to the other colts he has recently run against.
D. Wayne Lukas, as his trainer, has brought runners who didn't figure from out of the clouds before in big races and his talents should never be underestimated.
The short answer for the Belmont here is:
No!
Optimizer most likely cannot plod his way to victory.
But a horse race is a horse race.
Theoretically, every horse in a race has a chance.
Yes, since I put a small wager on his possibility (at long odds) in the Preakness, I will also put a very small wager on him again.
To date though, except for almost catching Secret Circle, it would be hard for me to advise anyone, especially from a Pace and Stamina viewpoint, that he has a but a snowball's chance in Hell.
If Lukas can wake him up again to run as he did in the Rebel, a slice is possible. The win? Doubtful.

[letswastemoney]

If Sarava can win...anything is possible :) I think...

[sovereign]

If Sarava can win...anything is possible :) I think...

Sarava had the right running style AND a perfect trip masterfully performed by Edgar Prado. The only S-type I know that has won recently was Jazil. He was last but seemed one-paced and worked his way up and through the field. The pace of the field slowed somewhat at the beginning of the far turn, allowing Jazil to continue is one-pace run, which was a bit quicker than the field. Velasquez had Bluegrass Cat held and primed for a run, but Jazil forced him to move early.

Hmmm.... Who is Prado riding this time? Dullahan?

[ArlJim78]

when was the last time a total non factor in the derby and preakness jumped up and won the Belmont? it's not going to happen this time.

[sovereign]

When the Crown is on the line, there are certain factors that prevent the coronation from happening. So far it has been one or both of two common denominators.

[horses4courses]

when was the last time a total non factor in the derby and preakness jumped up and won the Belmont? it's not going to happen this time.

True.
The bombs we have had in recent years have sat out the first two TC legs.
I don't see Optimizer winning the Belmont under any circumstances, but he might have had a small chance had he come into the race a fresh horse.
Ain't gonna happen..........

[GaryG]

No, hell no and NFW.

[iceknight]

If Lukas can wake him up again to run as he did in the Rebel, a slice is possible. The win? Doubtful.
I was hoping Lucas would wake him up by Preakness. (had small bets on him and had in on top (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1281198&postcount=26) /2nd of .10 supers featuring IHA, Bode, WTDW.. We all know how that ended. :bang:

In theory, I felt Opti has no chance.. but I can dream and spend a few bucks on it, right? haha
But, Now I want IHA to win but dont mind a (my> longshot coming second to beef up the exotics

[Tom]

when was the last time a total non factor in the derby and preakness jumped up and won the Belmont? it's not going to happen this time.

Frequently. If ever there was race that had no grounding in reality it is this one. I would sooner bet on barrel racing than this race. Zero interest in it. Other than, to root for every horse in it except IHA.

OK, now after reading this thread, I am betting at least a deuce on Optimizer! :cool:

[JPinMaryland]

Frequently. If ever there was race that had no grounding in reality it is this one. I would sooner bet on barrel racing than this race. :

exactly. This race is almost impossible to figure, there's not much to go on, no one breeds to go long. No one races at 12f.

Did anyone play this race in the old days? Was it different to handicap back in the 60s or 70s?

[PaceAdvantage]

Some people like to portray things as more impossible or difficult than they really are.

Folks, it's just another race. Just like none of these horses ever went 10f before the Derby, none have gone 12f before this upcoming Belmont Stakes. It's really no different than any other race in terms of how you approach it.

You have a lot of recent history at your disposal when looking at the Belmont. What works and what doesn't. What vulnerabilities exist (such as a jockey who is unfamiliar with Belmont AND the distance, and this can be MUCH more important than being unfamiliar with Churchill or Pimlico).

I look forward to handicapping and betting this race.

[lamboguy]

i think this is the easiest race of the 3. as long as the trainer doesn't do anything stupid in the next 3 weeks, this horse is a cinch.

this horse has a perfect running style, and knows how to stay out of trouble. he will be much better in the belmont than he was in the prior 2 races. i fully expect him to step up to the plate and prove that he is a great champion.

[ArlJim78]

Frequently. If ever there was race that had no grounding in reality it is this one. I would sooner bet on barrel racing than this race. Zero interest in it. Other than, to root for every horse in it except IHA.

OK, now after reading this thread, I am betting at least a deuce on Optimizer! :cool:
I completely disagree. I think in general this is the easiest of the classics to figure,certainly easier than the derby. this year in particular I have a very strong opinion so I'm going to be hitting it much harder than I normally do.
why root against IHA if I may ask?

[burnsy]

the preakness is by far the easiest to figure out. i disagree because the belmont has had natorious freaky outcomes in recent years. i don't see how you can say the preakness is hard to figure out when the same horses come from the derby. the derby and belmont are challenging races to guage. but i really think people are selling IHA short. he looked damn good saturday in what may have been his best effort yet. in the first poll i said he would not get it done. but if the track is fast, i think he might. there looks like one horse that can possibly beat him and thats dullahan. i give optimizer practicaly no chance in this race. but this race has had stranger finishes. i wish mark veleski was running ...he had no shot against this horse. he could not even beat el padrino. if this were uncle mo or union rags. the internet and forums would be white hot with all the crap. this is the best horse since kelso and all the BS. i've read it all before. but for some reason thats not happening with this horse even though he runs like a champ. this makes me think he gets it done at belmont. the new shooters look like garbage and the rest have been easily beaten by this horse. the lure of the triple crown and big sandy are the only things in his way.....i was there last time when big brown walked home..so this is a race thats had some weird finishes....last years winner, ruler on ice was a fluke. i view this race like the derby....very tricky.

[tucker6]

the preakness is by far the easiest to figure out. i disagree because the belmont has had natorious freaky outcomes in recent years. i don't see how you can say the preakness is hard to figure out when the same horses come from the derby. the derby and belmont are challenging races to guage. but i really think people are selling IHA short. he looked damn good saturday in what may have been his best effort yet. in the first poll i said he would not get it done. but if the track is fast, i think he might. there looks like one horse that can possibly beat him and thats dullahan. i give optimizer practicaly no chance in this race. but this race has had stranger finishes. i wish mark veleski was running ...he had no shot against this horse. he could not even beat el padrino. if this were uncle mo or union rags. the internet and forums would be white hot with all the crap. this is the best horse since kelso and all the BS. i've read it all before. but for some reason thats not happening with this horse even though he runs like a champ. this makes me think he gets it done at belmont. the new shooters look like garbage and the rest have been easily beaten by this horse. the lure of the triple crown and big sandy are the only things in his way.....i was there last time when big brown walked home..so this is a race thats had some weird finishes....last years winner, ruler on ice was a fluke. i view this race like the derby....very tricky.
I like IHA very much, but don't you think that's a bit strong.

[PaceAdvantage]

I like IHA very much, but don't you think that's a bit strong.He was saying if this were Uncle Mo or Union Rags going for the TC, that's what they'd be saying...

[tucker6]

He was saying if this were Uncle Mo or Union Rags going for the TC, that's what they'd be saying...
Thanks. I see that now. I guess I was riding the short bus today.

[iceknight]

i think this is the easiest race of the 3.

Are you sure? What do you think about the odds of the top 3 in Belmont 2011 then... and that racing call at the wire... If it were that easy to figure out. You would have at least one favorite or based on the rain/track conditions, thousands of handicappers would have figured out one of the top 3 enough to lower the odds (now I do realize the Animal Kingdom lost irons due to the mishap at the start..) but what about all the others?

Also.. separate comment at another earlier poster..
Ruler on Ice wasnt that much of a fluke.. He did come 3rd in Haskell and in BC Classic...

[Tom]

I completely disagree. I think in general this is the easiest of the classics to figure,certainly easier than the derby. this year in particular I have a very strong opinion so I'm going to be hitting it much harder than I normally do.
why root against IHA if I may ask?

Couple of reasons, The trainer for one. I have my opinion of him and it is not good at all. And I saw the last three triple crown winners - I just do not have any sort of the same vibes about this one. I prefer we wait a while longer.
But that is just me. As far as the Belmont goes, I will pass - no interest in it whatsoever. The under card will probably be ok, I may play some of the turf races. I play hardly any dirt races at Belmont.

[plainolebill]

I agree with burnsy. Think about this - if IHA hadn't run in the Derby or the Preakness Bode wins clear in the Derby and destroys the field in the Preakness. We'd probably be talking about Bode in the same tones as Slew and Affirmed - the next great thing: 2/5 on the ML for the Belmont.

I was a huge fan of Slew but he never met a horse as good as Bodemeister in his TC races - Run Dusty Run? :lol:

[ArlJim78]

Couple of reasons, The trainer for one. I have my opinion of him and it is not good at all. And I saw the last three triple crown winners - I just do not have any sort of the same vibes about this one. I prefer we wait a while longer.
But that is just me. As far as the Belmont goes, I will pass - no interest in it whatsoever. The under card will probably be ok, I may play some of the turf races. I play hardly any dirt races at Belmont.
no matter how long you wait the 70's are not coming back.

[Tom]

When Affirmed won, we were going :sleeping: another TC winner?

Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, I'll Have Another.......naw, I'll pass.