5 picks and 1 correction 5/20

[Ray2000]

So as not to continue the Hi-jack of Traynor's topic, I'll post this correction here

I made an error in my post (#15) "betting claimed, next start" the number was for betting the horse on the claim day and had some duplicate lines.

The corrected numbers are for claims last year (Jan 1, 2011 thru Dec 4) all NA tracks

3782 claims....ROI on Claim date -13%.....ROI on next start -7%

Of those, I only have good UTR ratings for both old and new trainer in 882 claims.
That breaks down to
Claims............................ROI Claim date.....ROI next start
416....going to worse barn........+8%....................-3%
466....going to better barn........-7%...................+18%

So mel, Your common sense was "Spot On"






Some picks for today
Sunday, May 20, 2012

Betting Win if odds > 3/1 and Key Box Exactas

Chester R2......7/4,1 ...Hoboken Sonny-12/1
Chester R11.....7/2,6 ...Majority Rules-6/1
Chester R14.....3/2,4 ...Woodmere Ultimate-5/1
Flamboro R2.....6/5,1 ...P C La Mousse-12/1
Tioga R3........7/4,6 ...Jettin Justin-6/1

GLA

[melman]

Tks for the work you do with the Robot Ray. The item that I have found so successful over the years of claimed or private sale from a bad barn to a winning barn can be tough to track. Even more so with the private sale. Sometimes "local knowledge" is a big help. Ray, remember trainer/owner Peter Kleinhans??? (think I spelled that right) he did very well via the sales route. Plus some what I call common sense items make it hard for even claims. i.e. better barn gets the horse but on a smaller size track and draws the 8 box. Many of the winning barns will just wait for next time to test there new horse. Have any data on Casie Coleman? did very well on her taking horses via claim or sale.
Best of trips for your picks today Ray.

[Ray2000]

Chester R2......642 no 10/1 stayed flat but quit
Chester R11.....478 no (placed $5.40)
Chester R14.....352 Winner $17.80
Flamboro R2.....??? no faith in the Mousse fugetaboutit...
Tioga R3........145 no



mel,
I have put some deutschmarks on Peter Kleinhans in the past, good man.

The trouble with ROIs on Claims by any single trainer is there just isn't a large enough sample to mean anything.

I could be missing a couple but here's what I have for Coleman in 2011.
49 claims .....betting to Win 1st start off the claim... +12.7%
As you can see the winnings come mostly from 2 Chester payoffs.



Horse Date clm Next start Days Track Fin Next 2$ Return
ADAYMER SEELSTER 17-Mar-11 24-Mar-11 7 wdb 1 5.20
ARDEN'S STORM N 15-Jan-11 22-Jan-11 7 yrx 2 0.00
ARDEN'S STORM N 12-Feb-11 19-Feb-11 7 yrx 5 0.00
AWESOME ABE 7-Nov-11 15-Nov-11 8 yrx 2 0.00
BAD TIME 4-Oct-11 14-Oct-11 10 yrx 3 0.00
BEECHWOOD TERROR 3-Jul-11 17-Jul-11 14 chs 1 19.00
BEST MAGIC 15-Jan-11 29-Jan-11 14 mxx 4 0.00
BLUEHURST 10-Jul-11 17-Jul-11 7 chs 8 0.00
CANACO RUN 25-Mar-11 2-Apr-11 8 wdb 7 0.00
COLBY JATE 31-Oct-11 7-Nov-11 7 yrx 2 0.00
DETERMINE THIS 1-Oct-11 10-Oct-11 9 yrx 2 0.00
EVENING JOB 31-Oct-11 5-Nov-11 5 yrx 1 3.50
GIN AND VERMOUTH 16-Aug-11 30-Aug-11 14 yrx 1 3.30
GOLDEN TIME 30-Jul-11 15-Aug-11 16 yrx 1 3.50
HAROUN HANOVER 26-Jun-11 3-Jul-11 7 chs 5 0.00
HICKORY HORACE 14-Aug-11 4-Sep-11 21 chs 2 0.00
INDYS Z TAM 18-Apr-11 23-Apr-11 5 wdb 9 0.00
IRISH ELITIST 6-Sep-11 16-Sep-11 10 yrx 2 0.00
IRONSTONE WIZ 24-Jan-11 29-Jan-11 5 yrx 8 0.00
IVANA B ME HANOVER 25-Aug-11 1-Sep-11 7 yrx 2 0.00
J J GLADIATOR 3-Jul-11 17-Jul-11 14 chs 2 0.00
JL'S MAN OF ACTION 15-Jan-11 29-Jan-11 14 mxx 1 8.20
JUST BEING A BOY 18-Dec-10 8-Jan-11 21 mxx 1 8.80
KILTED PRIDE 1-Apr-11 8-Apr-11 7 wdb 3 0.00
MCGAIN N MCGAIN 17-Nov-11 25-Nov-11 8 wdb 1 7.40
MODERN DESIRE 1-Aug-11 9-Aug-11 8 yrx 1 10.20
OR 12-Feb-11 19-Feb-11 7 yrx 3 0.00
OUR CAM KILLEAN 24-Jan-11 31-Jan-11 7 wdb 10 0.00
PAPER LUCK 8-Aug-11 16-Aug-11 8 yrx 1 3.00
PENCE HANOVER 19-Jun-11 26-Jun-11 7 chs 1 10.00
PLAY AT WYNN 18-Mar-11 25-Mar-11 7 wdb 8 0.00
REIBERCROMBIE 14-Nov-11 19-Nov-11 5 wdb 1 3.80
ROCK OF LUCK 31-Oct-11 7-Nov-11 7 wdb 1 3.70
RODS FAMOUS RIBS 20-Jan-11 28-Jan-11 8 wdb 6 0.00
SHOW ME UP 18-Jun-11 25-Jun-11 7 yrx 1 4.50
SIDDALL 6-Jan-11 13-Jan-11 7 wdb 2 0.00
SPARKY 30-Jul-11 5-Aug-11 6 yrx 1 3.50
SPARKY 12-Sep-11 24-Sep-11 12 yrx 3 0.00
SPARKY 17-Oct-11 31-Oct-11 14 yrx 2 0.00
STEELER 4-Aug-11 15-Aug-11 11 yrx 1 3.10
STEELER 26-Aug-11 2-Sep-11 7 yrx 2 0.00
STONEBRIDGE COWBOY 4-Nov-11 11-Nov-11 7 wdb 6 0.00
TIVOLI HANOVER 3-Oct-11 13-Oct-11 10 yrx 1 2.90
TROPICAL JOE 14-Feb-11 26-Feb-11 12 yrx 5 0.00
TY'S A BIG STAR 7-Aug-11 14-Aug-11 7 chs 7 0.00
TY'S A BIG STAR 15-Oct-11 24-Oct-11 9 yrx 4 0.00
UBETTERTHINK THINK 7-Jan-11 21-Jan-11 14 mxx 7 0.00
WESTERN SEDUCTION 25-Aug-11 8-Sep-11 14 yrx 6 0.00
WYNSUM MAGIC 15-Aug-11 5-Sep-11 21 yrx 1 6.90



.... must like Sparky, claimed him 3 times :)