Watching Racing

[Robert Goren]

I am adding a new element to my handicapping. After I make my pick I am going back and watch its last race and/or any key races. I used do this once in a while, but now I am going to do it on all my bets. I found so far that every so often I land on a horse that looks good paper but when I look at the race I see they didn't run a lick. Horses like that seldom win for me. Does anybody else look at previous races after handicapping but before betting. If so, what do you look for?

[Capper Al]

I was thinking the same thing. I don't want to be a trip handicapper, but looking at a couple of my top picks won't hurt.

Another element of handicapping that I need to get back to is reading the past performances. My software app turns out so much information that I have a selection or two in a couple of minutes. The problem is that the horse's story is in the PPs. All the data in the world doesn't make up for reading the PPs and getting the story down.

[FiveWide]

My software app turns out so much information that I have a selection or two in a couple of minutes. The problem is that the horse's story is in the PPs. All the data in the world doesn't make up for reading the PPs and getting the story down.


Amen! I'm a software engineer by trade and have my own handicapping software yet I still fully agree with your last statement. The numbers should be used in conjunction with the pps and whatever else one desires to add to his/her handicapping routine.


-Five

[turninforhome10]

When watching replays, which I do alot of. I not only watch the key horse but keep my eyes open for others that might be worth putting stable mail. Also if the jock is not riding the key horse back watching the replay might give you a reason why. I personally look for subtle changes in equipment. A ring bit if getting out on the turns, or a shur winn bit if breathing and displacement might be an issue. Where the jock puts the horse during the first call is my key for intent. How many times have you seen a horse get checked out of the gate drop back and run way off the board, only next time to break on top and wire the field. A test run. Correlating what the figs say and what the eyes say, while time consuming can give you an edge if you find a problem.

[Greyfox]

Does anybody else look at previous races after handicapping but before betting. If so, what do you look for?

Occasionally, I go back and watch races - particularly if my memory of a race differs with respect to what the PP lines are reporting.
For example, I may see the PP line of a runner shows that the last time out it picked up 2 lengths down the lane, when my memory tells me it was more than that.
I think rewatching a race is helpful on getting lengths gained more accurately as well as picking up trouble not reported in the comments line of the DRF.

[thaskalos]

Occasionally, I go back and watch races - particularly if my memory of a race differs with respect to what the PP lines are reporting.
For example, I may see the PP line of a runner shows that the last time out it picked up 2 lengths down the lane, when my memory tells me it was more than that.
I think rewatching a race is helpful on getting lengths gained more accurately as well as picking up trouble not reported in the comments line of the DRF.

It's amazing how different some races really are from the way they appear in the PPs.

In the PPs, you will often see a running line where the closer charges from far back and misses catching the front runner by a neck; so you form the image in your mind that the closer was a step away from winning the race.

You watch the replay, and you see that the two horses hooked up with 50 yards left to go in the race...with the front runner repelling the closer's charge...and increasing his winning margin at the wire.

Watching replays is highly recommended...IMO.

[Striker]

Why would you only want to watch the last race of the pick you like? Isn't this just like looking at just the last running line for the horse? If it is a horse you really like for some reason, I would watch numerous replays of the horses' races.

[JustRalph]

twinspires makes it real easy

just hit the program link

then click on the video icon to watch the previous races for the horse

[turninforhome10]

twinspires makes it real easy

just hit the program link

then click on the video icon to watch the previous races for the horse
On Twinspires TV replays you can watch the head on also. Sometimes the head on is a better view.

[gm10]

I am adding a new element to my handicapping. After I make my pick I am going back and watch its last race and/or any key races. I used do this once in a while, but now I am going to do it on all my bets. I found so far that every so often I land on a horse that looks good paper but when I look at the race I see they didn't run a lick. Horses like that seldom win for me. Does anybody else look at previous races after handicapping but before betting. If so, what do you look for?

Body language. I'll Have Another is a great example. Despite the tight finish with CC in the SA Derby, his body language reveals that he was just toying with him. He ran fast against one of his best rivals, beating him in a competitive finish ... for fun, literally. You see this from time to time with young horses. They usually run well next time.

Also, to a lesser extent, for trips and draw bias.

[turninforhome10]

Body language. I'll Have Another is a great example. Despite the tight finish with CC in the SA Derby, his body language reveals that he was just toying with him. He ran fast against one of his best rivals, beating him in a competitive finish ... for fun, literally. You see this from time to time with young horses. They usually run well next time.

Also, to a lesser extent, for trips and draw bias.
And that is why I made him my Derby horse after the Lewis. No horse has beat him to the 7/8th pole after the race as of yet. Bode got close yesterday, but IHA still had the help of outrider to get him pulled up. His gameness is evidenced by watching the replays. Watch the Wood and watch the SA Derby without figures and just for body language.

[gm10]

And that is why I made him my Derby horse after the Lewis. No horse has beat him to the 7/8th pole after the race as of yet. Bode got close yesterday, but IHA still had the help of outrider to get him pulled up. His gameness is evidenced by watching the replays. Watch the Wood and watch the SA Derby without figures and just for body language.

Last year I did a little test for the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. I only used "body language in previous races" to select my main contenders (it's a 2yo race in June ... any sort of ratings have to be taken with a pinch of salt anyway).

There were 23 runners ... my two picks were Roman Soldier (2nd) and Power (1st). I have no reason to assume that I am particularly good at seeing these things ... anyone who made the effort probably would have seen the same (it's not a small effort ... 23 runners, 2-3 previous races per horse, probably took 4 hours to get through them).

[Maximillion]

I am adding a new element to my handicapping. After I make my pick I am going back and watch its last race and/or any key races. I used do this once in a while, but now I am going to do it on all my bets. I found so far that every so often I land on a horse that looks good paper but when I look at the race I see they didn't run a lick. Horses like that seldom win for me. Does anybody else look at previous races after handicapping but before betting (#). If so, what do you look for?

Can you give an example of a looking good on paper and not running a lick?
(after watching the video)

[CincyHorseplayer]

I am adding a new element to my handicapping. After I make my pick I am going back and watch its last race and/or any key races. I used do this once in a while, but now I am going to do it on all my bets. I found so far that every so often I land on a horse that looks good paper but when I look at the race I see they didn't run a lick. Horses like that seldom win for me. Does anybody else look at previous races after handicapping but before betting. If so, what do you look for?

I've been doing it since about late last summer when I was getting conflicting messages from the PP's and figs and everything.It is truly amazing how many horses you can dismiss by watching their last race.Or even wins when they are dying at the wire.

[turninforhome10]

Can you give an example of a looking good on paper and not running a lick?
(after watching the video)


Alpha. From the Wood to the Derby.

[Bullet Plane]

Well, interesting question...

I would recommend that you make trip notes as you watch races. Then, when where you notice something about a horse that is special, put it on a horses to watch list.

You can do this by hand, or many services like DRF offer a horses to watch program, that alerts you when your horse is going to race.

I think that watching a race while handicapping has very little usefulness. Too much time compression.

You want to have the horse picked out in advance, then handicap, and find out if you really have a play.

This is my style. Perhaps others disagree.

[phattty]

the most profitable play for me is a second time starter

their lines are often horrible, yet watching the replay shows more to me than a running line [3...7..7...9]


did they run in spot?....was he being urged for his best?...did he make proper lead changes?...was he taking in the scenery?

add what you see to a trainers proclivities and nice mutuels sometime ensue..

[Uncle Salty]

In the PPs, you will often see a running line where the closer charges from far back and misses catching the front runner by a neck; so you form the image in your mind that the closer was a step away from winning the race.

You watch the replay, and you see that the two horses hooked up with 50 yards left to go in the race...with the front runner repelling the closer's charge...and increasing his winning margin at the wire.

This is a great point. I think that a lot when I look at a PP line like the one you described.

Don't have access to replays at the time, but in the future will most likely look into this....

[turninforhome10]

This is a great point. I think that a lot when I look at a PP line like the one you described.

Don't have access to replays at the time, but in the future will most likely look into this....
You can watch a lot of replays for free at Blood Horse
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/videos/race-replays
Can usually find most races from major circuits and its FREE.

[FiveWide]

I used to watch replays at Bloodhorse too until I found Thoroughbred Times replays. Free as well and they have them all.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing/video.aspx


-Five

[Uncle Salty]

You can watch a lot of replays for free at Blood Horse
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/videos/race-replays
Can usually find most races from major circuits and its FREE.

I used to watch replays at Bloodhorse too until I found Thoroughbred Times replays. Free as well and they have them all.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing/video.aspx

Thanks for posting this guys.

[Edward DeVere]

It's amazing how different some races really are from the way they appear in the PPs.


Understatement O' The Century (young as it is). I about fell off my chair last year when Jerry Brown, owner of Thorograph, admitted that his service did ground loss at some tracks from the charts.

From the CHARTS!!!

Are you kidding me? That would be the VERY DEFINITION of Garbage In - Garbage Out.

[classhandicapper]

Something I should do more of is watching the replay of each winner's (and perhaps beaten favorite's) previous race. I can't think of a better way to learn about trips.

[Dahoss9698]

I think if you aren't watching replays, you are doing yourself a great disservice.

Not only is it important to understand how a race was run, it gives you a great chance to look for plays down the road based on trips.

[pondman]

I specifically look at all recent maiden winners. I want to see if the jockey is sandbagging, sitting still on the horse. I don't want to see a lot of movement-- maybe a hand ride, keeping the horse a half length in front and moving only when something charges. A horse that can control the race, yet not a showboat, with a half length win. These often come back the next race and put in a
big effort, especially in lower levels on the west coast.