Better late than never...my take on the Preakness...

[PaceAdvantage]

Can be found here: http://www.paceadvantage.com

[rastajenk]

I just read a similar opinion by Byron King in the Form. I could be swayed. Two weeks ago Bode's Beyer of 108 seemed much the best. Now it looks more like an aberration. Absent that, and the rest are all in the same zip code. The Derby wiseguy pick might like different surroundings. Intriguing.

[PaceAdvantage]

By the way, I will categorically state that Creative Cause has absolutely NO CHANCE to win this race. He can finish in the tri and super, but he absolutely will not win.

I know, I know...I probably just made it a lock that CC wins today... :lol:

But seriously, if there ever was an "in and out" pattern on a horse, this one is it. The Derby was his IN. Today, he definitely looks like an OUT.

If anyone reading my opinion on the Preakness comes away with one thing today, please let it be that you won't be putting Creative Cause on top of any of your tickets.

It's horses like Creative Cause where I wish I had the ability to book bets on him...

[lamboguy]

i have no idea why DADDY NOSE BEST is even in this race, so i probably just put him in the winners circle.

sentimentally i want WENT THE DAY WELL, my partner sold the mare of this horse. unfortunately they don't pay on sentiments.

[PaceAdvantage]

i have no idea why DADDY NOSE BEST is even in this race, so i probably just put him in the winners circle.I'd be very interested in hearing more on why you think this.

[lamboguy]

i just think that the SUNLAND DERBY was a bogus race, he looked overmatched in the DERBY, and ran that way. i just wonder why he is going to run any better today?

i know that the barn loved the horse for the derby, so there might have been some excuse for him that we don't know.

[PaceAdvantage]

i just think that the SUNLAND DERBY was a bogus race, he looked overmatched in the DERBY, and ran that way. i just wonder why he is going to run any better today?It's a valid opinion, and I am by no means stating he is the best horse in the race. But, given what I expect his price to be, I feel he will offer me the best bang for my buck in this field.

[lamboguy]

It's a valid opinion, and I am by no means stating he is the best horse in the race. But, given what I expect his price to be, I feel he will offer me the best bang for my buck in this field.he will be about 5-1 on that horse and way over bet for me to get involved in him, everyone thinks he's the horse today.

[Saratoga_Mike]

By the way, I will categorically state that Creative Cause has absolutely NO CHANCE to win this race. He can finish in the tri and super, but he absolutely will not win.

I know, I know...I probably just made it a lock that CC wins today... :lol:

But seriously, if there ever was an "in and out" pattern on a horse, this one is it. The Derby was his IN. Today, he definitely looks like an OUT.

If anyone reading my opinion on the Preakness comes away with one thing today, please let it be that you won't be putting Creative Cause on top of any of your tickets.

It's horses like Creative Cause where I wish I had the ability to book bets on him...

I thought CC ran the second best race in the Derby (besides Bode). I don't buy the hot-and-cold theory on him. I think it's a Bode/CC exacta box. I don't think Daddy hits the board. I guess I don't have an orignial thought on the race, because I totally agree with Crist and Beyer's take on the race. Good luck.

[PaceAdvantage]

he will be about 5-1 on that horse and way over bet for me to get involved in him, everyone thinks he's the horse today.I'd be pretty shocked if he were 5-1...Bode and IHA will take the bulk of the money...CC will get action...DNB at 5-1? No way...but then again, I just need over 4-1, so 5-1 will be just fine by me...

[lamboguy]

I'd be pretty shocked if he were 5-1...Bode and IHA will take the bulk of the money...CC will get action...DNB at 5-1? No way...but then again, I just need over 4-1, so 5-1 will be just fine by me...he is third choice on the probable daily doubles from the BLACK EYED SUSIE yesterday.

you know as well as any that anything can happen in horse racing, and ASSMUSSEN has a history of winning with horses that looks like this one in this race. and when STEVE enters, he means business.

[PaceAdvantage]

he is third choice on the probable daily doubles from the BLACK EYED SUSIE yesterday.You mean Pimlico Special...I wasn't aware he was third choice in the DD...in fact, I've been a bit out of it this week as my life has been impacted by ping-ponging between jury duty and my real job...luckily, they settled the case on Friday...lol

[sammy the sage]

somebody's ON something...P.A. will GET way more THAN 5-1...

(Alternation, No. 8) with:

1. Tiger Walk, $681.60

2. Teeth of the Dog, $417.20

3. Pretension, $1,163.60

4. Zetterholm, $475.80

5. Went the Day Well, $62.20

6. Creative Cause, $71

7. Bodemeister, $34

8. Daddy Nose Best, $169

9. I’ll Have Another, $45

10. Optimizer, $744.40

11. Cozzetti, $564.60

[PaceAdvantage]

Thanks for that sammy...fifth choice...yeah, I'd say I'm going to get more than 5-1....

[raybo]

Here's my rankings for today, in grade order:
:7: :6: :4: :1: :9: :8:

I think the trouble "forced in, steadied" makes the 8 look better in this company. The 4 is a little scary, IMO, as is the 1 (although I don't hold much confidence in his winning the race, the early pace will have to be hotly contested and fast for him to have his chance.

[PaceAdvantage]

Here's my rankings for today, in grade order:
:7: :6: :4: :1: :9: :8:

I think the trouble "forced in, steadied" makes the 8 look better in this company. The 4 is a little scary, IMO, as is the 1 (although I don't hold much confidence in his winning the race, the early pace will have to be hotly contested and fast for him to have his chance.If the 4 even so much as sniffs the winner circle, I will bow down to you sir...I just don't see it...

[Hoofless_Wonder]

he is third choice on the probable daily doubles from the BLACK EYED SUSIE yesterday.

you know as well as any that anything can happen in horse racing, and ASSMUSSEN has a history of winning with horses that looks like this one in this race. and when STEVE enters, he means business.

I like Daddy Nose Best on paper, but why wasn't the horse included in the early Preakness PPs? Perhaps Steve isn't all business today, just looking for a better seat at the Old Hilltop today, since DNB is his only entry on the day.....

[rastajenk]

10,000 to pass the entry box, starters to pay 10,000 additional.

Expensive seats.

[raybo]

If the 4 even so much as sniffs the winner circle, I will bow down to you sir...I just don't see it...

His chances depend on pace collapse, and while not probable in this race, possible, if a couple of horses decide to pressure Bode early, and he absolutely wants the lead throughout.

[JBmadera]

His chances depend on pace collapse, and while not probable in this race, possible, if a couple of horses decide to pressure Bode early, and he absolutely wants the lead throughout.

Agree, I tossed the 4 in too. Will play him to win and place if he's around 25-1 or so. Not a big Dutrow guy but he excels with this type, plus very high (37%) J+T combo win rate and a flat bet profit.....worth a gamble.

[LottaKash]

While there is still time, I would like to stick my neck out and give my $.02-take on Bodiemeister's current road to fame and riches.....

Personally, from what I have seen of Bodie thus far, just smacks of " A Champion", all over the place at that...Me, as well as many others in this forum, thru the years, have seen many a stir created by any particular horse around Derby time, or even as a Freshman Racer....But this one, just plain looks the part of something very special to me...For the long haul, you know...

He has done absoutely nothing wrong so far....I sincerely believe if it wern't for his lack of of 2yo-seasoning, this guy would be the "Triple Crown One" this year...

In his very first start, in splits of 21.4...44.1...56.1...102.3 for the 5-1/2f, the chart callers comment was 3w,2w, willing to wire....Yikes! that's impressive, when you consider that it was was frist lifetime thing....And, he was bet to 4/1 in that affair, signalling to me at least, that this guy had some promise to him...Fin a game 2d in 96sr...

In his next start, you could've believed that he would bounce from that "huge" effort, but he didn't, and all he did was go on an extended win in that one....I just love a lightly raced horse that increases his lead by a bunch of lengths form the stretch call to the line....That will always get my undivided attention, especally so, since the class stayed the same, yet the distance went to 1-Mile....in 95sr...

The next out saw another increase in distance to 1-1/16, but more importantly, a first try vs. better, in a Gr-2 , finishing 2d by not much, after having had the lead for a bit down the lane....The chart caller said "drifted out str, gamely"....The "gamely" part kept my still undivided attention on him....

So now it's closer to the "Roses" and Baffert really cracks down on Bodie...Going Grade-1 now, and @ 1-1/8ths of a mile, vs. supposedly even better stock, this guy wipes up the floor with his rivals with yet another "Extended Win"....a 6-1/2 length gain to the wire from the stretch call....and with an evern bigger sr of 101.....

So comes the Derby, and nearly pulls off the big one,in the biggest run for 3yo's anywhere....AND at an even newer distance and longer distance, the 1-1/4 test.... With fractions that just humbled his rivals mostly all the way round, at that...

So far, unlike many of the other 3yo's he has been facing lately, he is one, that just hasn't been humiliated as of yet....Even his losses were minor triumphs, especially so for such a lightly raced horse as he.....He has done everything asked of him so far, and I see no reason not to continue to liking this guy so much, yet....He has continually gone faster and further in every one of his starts....I honestly don't believe he has achieved "full ability" yet...

Others have already stated on how impressed they have been with him so far, as well as others predicting the "inimitable-bounce".....Me, I believe that the really "great ones" don't really bounce they mostly just get closer to their full potential and will adjust from there, once it is written....

This guy, if he stays sound and on course, I predict will be "HOY", imo....I see that in him...

If the pattern remains the same, he will jiggety jog in the "Preakness"...

Too bad this guy was so late on the scene tho.....He could've, I think...

I don't go ga-ga over too many horses these days, but this one I am "GA-GA"...

best,

[Shelby]

I'm betting the :4: as my long shot pick. And, the way D. Wayne is going, I may have to put $ on Optimizer, too. The guy is on fire!

[Red Knave]

By the way, I will categorically state that Creative Cause has absolutely NO CHANCE to win this race. He can finish in the tri and super, but he absolutely will not win.
I disagree with you on this, I agree with you about Daddy Nose Best and Bode and IHA round out my top 4 with WTDW fifth. The only decent price will be DNB so he will be my key with the rest. Teeth of the Dog worries me but I can't bet him without seeing more.

[iceknight]

I'm betting the :4: as my long shot pick. And, the way D. Wayne is going, I may have to put $ on Optimizer, too. The guy is on fire!


We agree on the Lucas/Nakatani roll! Hope it clicks!

Don't agree on 4 Zetterholm though. If he acted like his sire he could wire the field if he sustains or finish in the money... but he has never done that. so it is a toss for me. I agree with Pace on that.

But of course we know that races are played on paper!!

good luck!

More blah blah at: http://stockgage.blogspot.com/2012/05/preakness-2012-selections.html

[iceknight]

By the way, I will categorically state that Creative Cause has absolutely NO CHANCE to win this race. He can finish in the tri and super, but he absolutely will not win.

It's horses like Creative Cause where I wish I had the ability to book bets on him...
I agree with you on this. If CC wins, kudos to him, but it will only be because 3-4 others somehow manage to tire themselves out etc.. I think 1 3/16 on a speedy track may be too much for him

[Bullet Plane]

The main players in this race:

:7: Bode: fair odds 3-1 / overlay 9/2 / now 2-1... underlay

:9: I'll Have Another: fair odds 3-1/ overlay 9/2 / now 3-1... underlay

:6: Creative Cause: fair odds 5-1/ overlay 8-1 / now 5-1... underlay

:5: Went the Day Well: fair odds 6-1/ overlay 9-1 / now 9/2... underlay

I will pass this race.... pretty much as planned.

Hope you guys that picked long shots get your winner...

[Mr_Ed]

:7: :6: :2: :5:

[raybo]

Great race! I really enjoyed this one. Bode was ready but I'll Have Another ran him down.

Now, we have a very good shot for a Triple Crown!! Here's hoping all these horses come out of this race in good shape.

Tremendous fun!

[raybo]

Well the 4 didn't sniff the winner's circle but he did get on the superfecta.

7,6 and 9 were pretty much no brainers, just was hoping the order would be a little different. The super payout was very low.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, your 4 beat my horse, so that counts as a sniff in my book... :lol:

[njcurveball]

The super payout was very low.

In an 11 horse field, the trifecta paid $70.80, the Super blew up with #4 and paid $848.60. And that is with the two favorites winning and another low odds horse third. Only 8 horses could have run 4th, so 8 * 70.80 would be $566.40 for the wheel. Super almost doubled the wheel.

I guess you don't play a lot of Supers, this one was juicy. :ThmbUp:

[Shelby]

Well, your 4 beat my horse, so that counts as a sniff in my book... :lol:

:lol:


The super didn't pay as much as I thought it would.

[raybo]

In an 11 horse field, the trifecta paid $70.80, the Super blew up with #4 and paid $848.60. And that is with the two favorites winning and another low odds horse third. Only 8 horses could have run 4th, so 8 * 70.80 would be $566.40 for the wheel. Super almost doubled the wheel.

I guess you don't play a lot of Supers, this one was juicy. :ThmbUp:

I played a multi-winner 10 cent saver super because I figured it would pay a minimum of $30 for adime. It paid a little more than that so my losing $1 and $2 straight super tickets were covered. I decided in this race to play multiple straight $1 and $2 tickets trying to cover as many possible pace scenarios as possible. Any of those straight tickets would have been very profitable, but quite hard to play straight tickets and hit it, so I played the large 10 cent super as a saver. That's exactly what happened. Here's the winning 10 cent ticket:

[raybo]

In an 11 horse field, the trifecta paid $70.80, the Super blew up with #4 and paid $848.60. And that is with the two favorites winning and another low odds horse third. Only 8 horses could have run 4th, so 8 * 70.80 would be $566.40 for the wheel. Super almost doubled the wheel.

I guess you don't play a lot of Supers, this one was juicy. :ThmbUp:

That's right, you guess.

I am a strict superfecta only player, as most here know already. I don't need to defend my knowledge of superfecta play, to you, or anyone else.

[raybo]

Well, your 4 beat my horse, so that counts as a sniff in my book... :lol:

I'll take the sniff then, thanks!! I had your 8 on some of my tickets too. Oh well, it was pretty obvious that almost anything could have happened in this race, many horses coming back on 14 days. I just played it safe betting straight $1 and $2 super tickets, instead of my usually $1 wheel/box. But I did cover all those straights with a large 10 cent wheel/box that hit and saved my butt.

I feel a little like a cheater, betting that large dime super, but just had so many possible pace scenarios to deal with, I felt like it was the smart thing to do in this race.

Can't wait for the Belmont! That's gonna be something!! I'll be rooting for IHA for sure, even if I bet another way.

[raybo]

:lol:


The super didn't pay as much as I thought it would.

It surprised me a little, I thought it would pay in the $300 for $1 range, but paid a little more than that. Better to estimate a little low than a little high.

[BleedsDodgerBlue]

To our PA Administrator:

In my opinion, your choice is more of a turf horse than a dirt horse.
But now that I'll Have Another won again, I'm wondering if you are convinced that he's the best three year old in training right now???

Also, could you explain your comment about Creative Cause being an "in and out horse" and the Preakness was "out." What exactly do you mean by that? I liked Creative Cause, who only lost by a nose to I'll Have Another in a long stretch drive in the Santa Anita Derby. But apparently, I'll Have Another has progressed from that race while Creative Cause has not.

------BleedsDodgerBlue

[jldonah]

To our PA Administrator:

In my opinion, your choice is more of a turf horse than a dirt horse.
But now that I'll Have Another won again, I'm wondering if you are convinced that he's the best three year old in training right now???

Also, could you explain your comment about Creative Cause being an "in and out horse" and the Preakness was "out." What exactly do you mean by that? I liked Creative Cause, who only lost by a nose to I'll Have Another in a long stretch drive in the Santa Anita Derby. But apparently, I'll Have Another has progressed from that race while Creative Cause has not.

------BleedsDodgerBlue

Looking forward to your Belmont Stakes picks on July fourth!

[PaceAdvantage]

To our PA Administrator:

In my opinion, your choice is more of a turf horse than a dirt horse.
But now that I'll Have Another won again, I'm wondering if you are convinced that he's the best three year old in training right now???

Also, could you explain your comment about Creative Cause being an "in and out horse" and the Preakness was "out." What exactly do you mean by that? I liked Creative Cause, who only lost by a nose to I'll Have Another in a long stretch drive in the Santa Anita Derby. But apparently, I'll Have Another has progressed from that race while Creative Cause has not.

------BleedsDodgerBlueYes, I am more convinced. Funny how that works...lol

As for CC, it's simple. His last four or so races prior to the Preakness demonstrated a clear up and down (or in and out) pattern. A good fig followed by a lesser fig. The Derby called for him to run his big number, and the Preakness called for him to run a lower number. That's why I liked him in the Derby and absolutely hated him in in the Preakness. At least I pegged him correctly in the Preakness.

Look for him to run very well next time out...

[Striker]

Look for him to run very well next time out...
Time to try him on the turf in the next race or two given the pedigree.

[lamboguy]

so far experts still have their doubts as to how good ILL HAVE ANOTHER truly is. he is not being compared to the great horses before him. to me this is an improving horse and i really don't think we have seen the best of him.
the way that i have always looked at horse racing is that you are only as good as your last race. to this point in the triple crown series we have had 2 great horses face each other. in the preakness both horses improved from the kentucky derby. this time around BODIEMEISTER will not be here for a challenge. in his own right BODIE is truly a great great horse.

while i do expect a triple crown winner by many lengths in new york, i wonder how much better he can get without a strong foe to push him to the limit to set up his next race. what i love about IHA is that he is a very smart horse and knows how to get his head in front when it counts at the finish line. this will eventually prove to all of us how great this horse truly is.

[PaceAdvantage]

At the present time, Bodemeister is nowhere near "truly a great great horse."

Gain some perspective my man...

[classhandicapper]

As for CC, it's simple. His last four or so races prior to the Preakness demonstrated a clear up and down (or in and out) pattern. A good fig followed by a lesser fig. The Derby called for him to run his big number, and the Preakness called for him to run a lower number. That's why I liked him in the Derby and absolutely hated him in in the Preakness. At least I pegged him correctly in the Preakness.

Look for him to run very well next time out...

Did CC actually run an "out" race in the Preakness?

It looked more to me like Bode got a softer pace than in the Derby and IHA moved forward so they crushed him. I thought CC more or less ran his race, but got used chasing Bode trying to keep him honest and that got him beat even further.

[PaceAdvantage]

Did CC actually run an "out" race in the Preakness?

It looked more to me like Bode got a softer pace than in the Derby and IHA moved forward so they crushed him. I thought CC more or less ran his race, but got used chasing Bode trying to keep him honest and that got him beat even further.Call it what you will...the end result was the same. I guaranteed he would not win, and would have loved to book every single penny I could on him in the Preakness. But alas...I could not...

[Skanoochies]

At the present time, Bodemeister is nowhere near "truly a great great horse."

Gain some perspective my man...
...I agree.And IHA may not be nowhere near "truly a great horse" either, but he has my excitement at a very high level, and at my age I`d like to witness another triple crown winner,`cause who nows when the next chance may come along.

Good luck IHA and Mario. :ThmbUp:

[raybo]

At the present time, Bodemeister is nowhere near "truly a great great horse."

Gain some perspective my man...

Well, I don't know about Bode being "truly a great great horse", but in this year's Derby field, to have run the fractions he ran, and get beaten by only 1 1/2 lengths in the final 1/16th makes him a pretty impressive horse, in my book.

I am excusing his loss in the Preakness because I feel he was not in peak form for that race.

I am content to wait and see what Bode does from this point forward. Either he becomes a "truly great great horse" or he doesn't. He's just 3 years old and has much time to improve his late kick, so who really knows how great, or non-great he can be?


Even Secretariat suffered some losses, and I think most people who know racing consider him a "great great horse", I'm not saying that Bode is anywhere near being another Secretariat, but I do think he has the potential to be one of the best horses currently running, at any age.

PS: This is coming from someone who is not easily impressed by front running horses, so to be this impressed by such a horse, is quite unusual for me.

[Sysonby]

Yeah, I'm not usually crazy about front-running horses either, but I've drunk the Koolaid on Bodemeister. I'm not saying he's a great horse. We have no way of knowing that yet. But his leaps of improvement over the last five months have been profound and very impressive. I hope he stays sound and we get to see what he develops into.

[classhandicapper]

Call it what you will...the end result was the same. I guaranteed he would not win, and would have loved to book every single penny I could on him in the Preakness. But alas...I could not...

You could on an exchange.

It you had booked bets, you would have gotten a few dollars of mine because I used him for second behind Bode. I would rather have given the money to you because when I paid, you might have at least bought me a coffee. I would have felt like I got a rebate or something. ;)

[lamboguy]

the only reason why one might not think that BODIEMEISTER is great is because you guys aren't giving I'LL HAVE ANOTHER the respect that he deserves.

i think that everyone's tunes will change after this great horse makes mince-meat of the field in the greatest horse race in the whole world, THE BELMONT STAKES.

[RXB]

Bodemeister is a nice runner, but you'll have to excuse those of us who are restraining ourselves from bestowing the mantle of true, true greatness upon a horse who has won twice from six races.

In the Preakness, he equalled (not exceeded) the par Beyer figure with a clear lead on moderate fractions. And lost. Is that greatness?

[iceknight]

This is coming from someone who is not easily impressed by front running horses, so to be this impressed by such a horse, is quite unusual for me. I know what you mean, I was nt impressed much by Seattle Slew either.... wait.. what? I was not born back then? Guess i learnt more here (http://www.ipaintchampions.com/seattle_slew_story.html)

(this quote was written as an excuse to share that link about Slew, not to knock on u or Bodemeister)

[BleedsDodgerBlue]

So now I hear that IHA was wearing breathe right strips in his nose that according to a website help a horse breathe easier and also somehow bleed less. But they are banned in New York.

Kind of makes you wonder what impact that will have on IHA in the Belmont Stakes???

- - - Thanks, PA Admin, for answering my question about CC's in and out pattern.

--------------------BleedsDodgerBlue