View Full Version : Official PaceAdvantage.com Preakness Analysis

05-19-2012, 11:24 AM
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/8.jpg Daddy Nose Best (4-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/7.jpg Bodemeister (8-5)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/9.jpg I'll Have Another (8-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/6.jpg Creative Cause (16-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/5.jpg Went the Day Well (18-1)

Whatever thought there is of Bodemeister perhaps being taken back a bit in the Preakness to try and relax him early on is just that...talk. I don't see any way Bodemeister isn't in front at every point of call in today's Preakness. He's simply the fastest horse, period. Nobody can outrun him early, and why would they want to try? We all saw how those who were close to Bodemeister early in the Kentucky Derby finished. Not too well. And we all know how dangerous a horse can be when alone on the front end. The track yesterday at Pimlico, from all accounts, was playing fairly, so there should be no inherent disadvantage to being in front early in the Preakness.

But, given the expected odds on the Kentucky Derby runner-up, I'm going to look elsewhere and try and beat Bode. After all, he's run four very good races in a row for such a lightly raced horse, and the Derby just might have taken enough out of him to make 8-5 a ridiculous price with which to try and make some money.

That leads me to my main play in this race, and one I am salivating over. That being Daddy Nose Best. At 4-1 on my line, he is most certainly going to be a very nice overlay. He is no doubt a closer, and not the horse with the best closing numbers in the race (those honors go to the likes of I'll Have Another, Creative Cause, Went the Day Well, and Bodemesiter {if you ignore his Derby}, which makes the latter oh so super-dangerous in yet another way) . . . but Daddy's closing numbers are at least in the ball park with these four others. His Derby trip was loaded with excuses too, and I have thrown that race out as far as he is concerned. He will be my key horse in every wager that I make today in this race.

I'll Have Another, the Kentucky Derby winner, is a horse who still needs to convince me that he wasn't simply the horse who benefited the most from Bodemeister's grueling run two weeks ago. Although I have to admit that he did finish quite well despite being "relatively" close to Bodemeister...after all, he was less than four lengths off Bode at the six furlong mark, so it wasn't like he loped along and simply picked up the pieces at the end. In all reality, he probably should be less than 8-1 on my line just on that fact alone, but something about this horse still hasn't made a believer out of me. Maybe today.

Creative Cause and Went the Day Well round out my list of contenders and should be included on exotic tickets.

Good Luck!