This Bounce Theory

[strapper]

Explain to me when and why you think a horse will bounce. Not every big effort is followed by a subpar one, especially when it comes to top horses. A talented horse can hold his/her form over a longer period of time, yet I hear less talk of this angle in everyday, cheap class races. Use Bodemeister for example, who is of the opinion he will bounce in the Preakness and why? I'll Have Another is he going to bounce and why? ;)

[GoGoMac]

Very tough one to be certain about as each horse has to be viewed differently. Sprinters are more likely to bounce than Routers. Carey Fotias in his book states that a horse that runs a new pace top and figure top is very likely to bounce. Sheet players also know that how big a jump in the figures from previous performances can result in a regression. Males are more consistent. As you state though Strapper they don't always bounce.

[Tom]

I think there are far fewer real bounces that people imagine.
For me, a bounce is when a young horse comes back from a layoff and runs a significantly higher top.

[sovereign]

Or you can put it this way: if it were on 7 horse field with Bode and the six newcomers, who would you bet on to win?

[Robert Goren]

I agree that there are very few real bounces. There is guarantee that Bode will bounce although the very short time betweens his last races is a concern. A bigger concern to me if I was betting him would be that he is one of those front running high Beyer figure phonies like Quality Road that I am a sucker for. In this case I just think that IHA is a better horse. If IHA wasn't in the race, I'd be betting Bode.
Longshot winners after a long layoff(at least 6 months) to me are prime candidates for a big bounce.

[Tom]

I hope he bounces of his Derby like Shackleford bounced of of his last year.

[NYPlayer]

Explain to me when and why you think a horse will bounce...

I would say you need to read The Sheets to have any idea. As far as Bodemeister and IHA go, both are vulnerable, although technically Bodemeister bounced in the Derby (from his top effort in AR). Of these two, I think IHA has a better shot to outrun Bode in the Preak. But if they bounce just enough, a horse like Tiger Walk could pick up the pieces by running a lifetime best effort (it's been six weeks since his last race).