Daily Variants

[Tom]

Got to thinking about daily track variants and thought I'd solicit some opinions from the group.

Assuming there is a variant, never mind what it is or why it happens, but whatever it is, if is strong enough to slow down a Gr1 stakes horse 2 ticks, wouldn't it be safe to assume thqt it would not slow down a MC20,000 horse more than that? Maybe as much as 5 of 6 tics?
It seems unnatural that the best and the worst are affected the same.
Some days, when I am looking at my race variants, I see some slow2, slow3, slow2, slow 7, slow5.....
I wonder if the s7 and s5 might somwhow"equal" the s2-3 races and to average them all together makes the variant wrong for all races.
Any thoughts?

[Buddha]

the logic behind it makes sense. whether or not it really happens, i dont know. you would think that cheaper horses would be affected more by a changing or slow track. wonder if you went back to actually see the class of the races if the better ones seem to have the least variance and cheaper horses have more. might be worth looking into.

[sjk]

I believe any such effect is measured in tenths of points and will not make a meaningful difference in your numbers.

I compared higher class/lower class races on faster/slower tracks. The average speed rating of each group (quadrant) was within a point of the average par. The higher class horses showed a greater difference than the lower class horses; a greater positive variance in speed rating vs. par on the slower tracks compared with a small negative variance on the faster tracks. This is the difference you predicted. It seems to me to be only a few tenths of a point.

[kenwoodallpromos]

2 ticks is 2 lengths. How many races are won by 2 ticks or less? / I am believing more and more not only that class= stamina, but that running style and fitness also determines stamina. Extreme example= closer on a slow track should do much better than the same horse on a faster-than-normal track. If you can translate slow2 etc. to lengths or time for 6f or 1 1/16 iit may help!

[BIG HIT]

Here my 2 cent's thought if a 5,ooo clm can run a 21.4 frist qt and a 50,000 clm can do the same.Since they are equal on time it is easyier for the 50 to accellerate to that then the 5 which will mean if face each other no matter what the var 50 will always win.So i don't see a real value in variant.Every race has a winner and he undoubtedly was the best+a little luckyier sometime's then some of the 2 or 3 other contender's.

[justin]

Tom,

I did a lot of thinking on your original post, mostly because it makes sense. So, I decided to do some calculations based on your theory.

I'm assuming you meant something like this. Lets say each track has a maximum speed, and on any given day, the track will be capable of producing times a fixed percentage of its maximum. For example, lets say the best horses in the world at Pimlico can run six furlongs in exactly 1:10.00 when the track is at it absolute fastest. If we were to say on another day, the track was 5% slow. 5% of 70 seconds is 3.5 seconds, so these very same horses would be capable of running the 6 panels in only 1:13.50. That is a pretty big swing, about as big as one will find for any given track. Lets further assume these same horses run a Beyer of around 120.

Now, lets look at some of the worst horses on the grounds, those who can run about a 60 Beyer. Using the Beyer scale, those horses, on the track the best horses run 1:10.00 on, could expect to run around 1:14.30. That is 60 Beyer points (120-60) converted to time and added to 1:10.00. On the same track that is 5% slow, these horses would run 3.72 seconds slower, or 1:18.02.

So, here is the best I can make of it. Over a huge spread, the maximum difference is around .22 seconds at 6f. That equates to about 3 Beyer points. Seeing that is near the extreme, I think I can live with that instead of adding in way more complicated calculations for minimal figure improvement.

Does this make sense to anyone? I did it on the fly.

Great post Tom, keep them coming!

[cj]

Oops, did it again, the above is from me...DOH!!!

[Buddha]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Oops, did it again, the above is from me...DOH!!!

Not used to using someone other than your PC are you? :)

[Dave Schwartz]

CJ,

You know, with these multiple nicks somebody will porbably accuse you of being a software developer. <G>

Dave

[kenwoodallpromos]

Baltimore to Okla City in 2 minutes? No terrorist screening on domestic flights!!LOL!!

[delayjf]

Tom,

MV MCKEE made simular comments in that he felt the variant also reflected a horses stamina. And that the greater impact would be seen in the final quarter. I would refer you to him to see if he was able to separate the track speed component from the stamina component.

[exacta]

I concur with, or basically concur, cj and his posted analysis.....

my supporting figures are lost and gone with the theft several years ago of most of my horseracing computer stuff ....
but,
from memory, I recall that "extreme" slow or fast variants had, at best no more than a factor of 1 tick more impact on differing classes, from the best to the worst

now, I do know that to the folks who denigrate d/v this is of no import ...
but
you did ask the question in your original post
>>>>>Assuming there is a variant, never mind what it is or why it happens, but whatever it is, if is strong enough to slow down a Gr1 stakes horse 2 ticks, wouldn't it be safe to assume thqt it would not slow down a MC20,000 horse more than that? Maybe as much as 5 of 6 tics?

I don't think so, myself

the difference remains, roughly the same, as far as I'm concerned, and, at one time, I did have the figures which showed (for me) that fact....

[VetScratch]

I will add this, and I am sure Buddha and others at tracks can verify it with the best trainers....

Given tracks listed fast or good, individual horses will often react differently within the spectrum of daily variants. Some will always produce their best adjusted speed (Beyer/etc) figures on slow days while others perform best on fast days. The best E-type that we ever had (multiple stakes winner of x.x-million) did best on slow/tiring fast/good tracks and disliked wet tracks. Other E-types prefer faster than neutral fast/good tracks... with similar preference idiosycracies noted for horses with other running styles.

I think you will see such a preference idiosyncracy with respect to daily variant in the lifetime PPs for many horses with let's say 40-to-60 career starts and 8-to-12+ wins. Such preferences just go unnoticed in the PPs of most horses with fewer lifetime starts.

[Tuffmug]

Tom,

Like your original though about differential in variants between different class types. It makes sense to me but how can you prove it and what would you do with this information that could aid you in handicapping?

Variants are guesswork to begin with and the assumptions which underlie them are black holes waiting to suck in the unwary and the wary variant maker. So best you can do is get an average variant for the day to give you some sense of track speed that day, then use it to upgrade/downgrade a horse's performance.

Have seen the same variations race to race on the same card. Believe most of intraday variation is related to early pace variations of each race based on early pace pressure on front runners changing the early/late shape of the race and the eventual final times.

Can I prove the above? No. Just my thoughts on the subject.

[VetScratch]

Relative to my last post, I have always believed the variant reflected conditions which impact the balance between anaerobic and aerobic contributions to performance. Speed mechanics may be relatively influenced on roughly even terms for all, but on slow days they all face anaerobic discomfort earlier in a race than on fast days. Some horses run through this discomfort better or further than others when aerobic conditioning levels are equivalent.

[lousycapperII]

Originally posted by Tom
Got to thinking about daily track variants and thought I'd solicit some opinions from the group.



Correct me if I'm wrong, but, isn't the variant based a daily average of similar races and surfaces? The speed rating should reflect the difference between the classes not the variant. The equibase variants work just fine for me. If races were timed from a standing start, id est, the gate, it would make things a lot easier.

-LCII

[Zaf]

LC II

Are the equibase variants the Daily Racing Form Track Variant ?

ZAFONIC

[lousycapperII]

Originally posted by zafonic
LC II

Are the equibase variants the Daily Racing Form Track Variant ?

ZAFONIC

Mr. ZAFONIC,

Since DRF gets their data from Equibase I believe they are the same.

-LCII

[kenwoodallpromos]

See my thread on Variants!