Confirmation: pass/or go forward?

[crestridge]

When confronted with a race where your two top contenders are also the two top odds board favorites, do you continue to wager such races, especially if the odds are rather low or pass the race? Two ways to view such a race; this confirms my analysis that I'm correct and I should go forward with my opinion, or this confirms my analysis, yes it is correct, but the odds are going to be to low and I should pass this race?

[crestridge]

In my analysis, usually there's no value, because my analysis is mostly the same as the public in this instance, with little unique insight; however, there is a high winning percentage.

[Overlay]

In my analysis, usually there's no value, because my analysis is mostly the same as the public in this instance, with little unique insight; however, there is a high winning percentage.
The presence or absence of value would be the deciding factor for me, rather than the low odds (either fair odds or actual odds) themselves.

[Light]

I would think it depends on the type of bet you are making. If the 2 horses you like are also the 2 favorites and you are a $2 bettor, then betting both to win for $4 to make 60 cents (if one pays $4.60 to win) is pretty lame.(I think I have more than 60 cents under the couch).

But if you are betting $1000 to win on each and stand to make a $300 profit should the $4.60 horse come in,then your blood will be pumping.

Many other scenarios exist such as using these 2 as keys in exotics.

To answer your other question,I do like to see action on the board on my picks from their ML odds. Does give me a little more of a cozy feeling but that's about it.

[Robert Fischer]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/a2/Betting_on_the_Favorite.jpg/800px-Betting_on_the_Favorite.jpg

Betting on the Favorite, a wood engraving drawn by W. L. Sheppard (from a sketch by W. B. Myers) and published in Harper's Weekly, October 1870.

[crestridge]

A picture is worth a thousand words!!

[Bullet Plane]

If my opinion matches the public, then I don't have a play.

True, you could probably calculate the odds for the horses in the race and determine if you have an overlay in every race.

I don't have the time to calculate the odds for horses in all races at every track in North America on a daily basis. I'm not a whale with a staff.

I have to narrow the races I'm going to work down to a manageable few.

So, I'm going to look at races that I think I might have an edge. I'll figure the odds from there and see where I'm at....

Generally, I'm looking to play against a false favorite. Or, perhaps some "hidden" value on a horse I think the public will overlook.