Stretches and turnbacks

[howardjim]

Sprinters stretching to a route and the opposite remain essentially inscrutable to me.Betting SA,HOL.DMR in the early 90's
the guidelines were fairly reliable.Successful stretches were lightly
raced or proven routers in the past,more often male and with
running styles either close up with strong finishes or sustained 2nd and 3rd fraction moves.Turnbacks attended the pace for 3/4 at fractions(6f at least) close to today's sprint.
Today most of my bets are at low to mid class tracks and often at
the lower end of their cards.All attempts to isolate guidelines come to naught with the exception that stretches win infrequently
and are often overbet while turnbacks win often enough,especially at 6.5 and 7f to be irritating.They are not usually bet down and offer me no clues to their contention.
Help would be appreciated.

[Tom]

HowardJim....
Welcome to the board.
I have found one of the best ways to predict a router's success in a sprint is to use Quirrin-style paces and speed figures.
If the routes pace figure is as good or better than the final figs the horse might be able to win. A caveat is that I requre the horse to be either on the lead or withing 1 length at the second call in its last race (this comes from one of Quirin's early books- a rule I have used for many years).
Nowm not to redboard, but look at the 4th at AQU yesterday...this was a real heartbreaker for me because I had the $44 winner as my fourth choice and a value line at 6-1 on him!Yet I just would not make the bet! Grrrrrrr.

Here are the last three final figs for the sprinters:
[code]
#2 xx-84-83
#3 87-93-87 (most recent last)
#4 94-92-87
#1 xx-xx-68
#1a 75-81-78
#9 86-91-94

#5 - router running 9th at pace call - out
#7 - router running 2nd at pace call - possible
pace figures are 92-92-90
#10-router way vack - out
#8 - Router leading at pace call last out-possible play
Pace figures: 103 - 102- 93-93-75-96

Both 7 and 8 had pace figures that put them close at 6 furlongs.
They ran 8-7 and the ex paid $183.

Now, the 8 had a lot of bad things in its record, but at 22-1, it was certainly worth looking at, and I had it at 6-1 in my line.
I ended up playing the 3-7-9 when Derek2U pointed out in the WR that "The 8 sucs!" (hahaha)

Anyway, that general situatiuon presents itself several times a week and it well worth following.