PARX- Race 10 Monday 5-14 (Picks)

[MitchS]

I've uploaded analysis on race 10 at PARX for Monday. I've also uploaded an immediate download file for PARX tomorrow and I've decided to do a Preakness Detail sheet just like I did in the Derby. Lots of great racing out there :)

Have a great night everyone,
Mitch

[Robert Fischer]

r5
:10:
:3:
live longshots to use with :5::7::8:

[MitchS]

Final Comments-

Was an awesome result! The 4th ranked SR-L won and paid $56.40. The 1st choice ran 2nd, the 3rd choice ran 3rd and the 2nd choice ran 4th. All of those horses were listed as beginning contenders marked in yellow. Yes I had the winner and let me explain why. First I was quoted as saying this in the pre race analysis… “The #8 with the best Late and Kic numbers in the field which are powerful ratings to look at in distance and especially distance turf races seems to be no threat here as he seems to be in a declining form pattern. That leaves the top 3 SR-L horses, numbers 2, 9 and 7.”

To explain why this horse was bet is very simple. First I’m a value win better. That’s all I play with only some exotics on occasion. I mainly look at the top 5 SR-L’s in most races as long as the numbers are within a reasonable range. That’s a very broad statement as some race variables can change depending on the race situation. Could be a big dropper, -P etc. The 4th ranked #8 who won the race in this case was within 8 points of the top rated horse with other reasonable figs. I already pointed out that this was a semi weak favorite race where I’m going to look to beat the favorite with value. I do on occasion bet 3 horses to win in the same race but that’s only in extremely contentious races, I’ll generally narrow it down to 2 or 1. Plain and simple the reason the #8 was bet is because he was 25/1 and had reasonable numbers. Sure his form seemed to me to be declining but 25/1 he’s worth a bet plain and simple! We can’t bet the #2 at even money or the #9 at 2/1. We can bet the #7 at 6/1 and we can bet the #8 at 25/1. Two horses bet to win for value in a semi weak favorite race. Nice!

Have a great night,
Mitch